$ADP

By Ann Saphir WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve on Wednesday is expected to raise interest rates by half of a percentage point and announce the start of reductions to its $9 trillion balance sheet as U.S. central bankers intensify efforts to bring down high inflation. Fed policymakers have widely telegraphed a double-barreled decision that would lift the Fed's short-term target policy rate to a range between 0.75% and 1%, and set in motion a plan to trim its portfolio of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by as much $95 billion a month. The policy statement is due to be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) following the end of the Fed's latest two-day meeting. Markets have priced in further rate increases through this year and into next, including three more half-percentage-point hikes, as traders bet the central bank moves much more quickly than it had anticipated it would in March to get borrowing costs up to where they will start actively curbing inflation. With no fresh Fed economic or policy rate projections due until the central bank's June meeting, most clues on how far and how fast it is prepared to go will come from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's news conference, which starts at 2:30 p.m. EDT. 'SOUND HAWKISH' The Fed began its current round of policy tightening in mid-March with a quarter-percentage-point rate hike, smaller than many policymakers had wanted given inflation had hit a 40-year high, but calibrated so as not to inject more uncertainty into global markets roiled by Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. In the weeks since that decision, inflation has gained new steam as the war pushed up oil and food prices and China's strict lockdowns to combat the spread of COVID-19 further disrupted supply chains. Data on the U.S. labor market also suggests increasing labor market tightness, with employment costs surging as businesses struggle to hold onto workers. A record number of job openings may also translate to higher wages that could also feed through to inflation. And there are signs that worker shortages and higher costs may actually be sapping labor market strength. Data from the ADP National Employment Report on Wednesday showed private companies adding far fewer jobs than expected in April, and small companies shedding workers for the second time in three months. All that is ratcheting up the pressure on the Fed to act more decisively to rein things in. "Powell will continue to have a strong incentive to sound hawkish," Piper Sandler economist Roberto Perli said this week. "The Fed's focus these days is 100% on bringing inflation down, and hawkish expectations help that cause." In the run-up to this week's meeting, Powell has said he wants to get rates "expeditiously" to what Fed policymakers regard as a "neutral" range of 2.25%-2.5%, and then higher if needed. Most of his colleagues appear to be on board with at least the first part of that plan. The aim would be to lift borrowing costs high enough and fast enough that households slow spending and businesses pare hiring in response, reducing inflation that is now about three times the Fed's 2% target. Traders are now betting the Fed will get its benchmark overnight interest rate to above the estimated neutral range by September, with further rate increases on the table before topping out in the 3.5%-3.75% range in the first half of 2023. The central bank wants to avoid raising rates so high or so fast that it short-circuits the labor market and trips up the economy. The U.S. unemployment rate has only just dropped to 3.6%, near the pre-pandemic level, and any large reversal could be a prelude to a recession. The Fed has managed "soft landings" infrequently in the past, analysts say, and at this point has allowed inflation to rise so much faster than interest rates that it may have already missed its chance to do so. And while it is expected to raise rates rather quickly now to compensate, the inflation path will also depend on a number of factors beyond the Fed's control, including the evolution of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and ongoing supply and labor shortages connected to both. The Fed's plan to reduce its balance sheet will also be a focus on Wednesday. While the broad outlines were disclosed about three weeks ago in minutes of the Fed's March meeting, investors expect to learn details of the speed and extent of the plan, including possible MBS sales at some point in the future.

**SOTTO LA LENTE OGGI** NUOVA ZELANDA (dati già rilasciati) **00:45 Variazione nel livello di occupazione (Trimestrale) (1° trim.)** 00:45 Tasso di disoccupazione (1° trim.) 01:00 Discorso del Governatore della RBNZ Orr 01:00 Conferenza Stampa della RBNZ AUSTRALIA (dati già rilasciati) 03:30 AUD Prestiti per abitazioni (Mensile) 03:30 AUD Vendite al dettaglio (Mensile) (Mar) GERMANIA 08:00 Saldo della bilancia commerciale tedesca (Mar) EUROZONA 09:00 ECB Non-monetary Policy Meeting 10:00 Indice composito dei servizi (Apr) 10:00 Indice dei direttori agli acquisti del settore servizi (Apr) 11:00 Vendite al dettaglio (Annuale) (Mar) 11:00 Vendite al dettaglio (Mensile) (Mar) STATI UNITI **14:15 Variazione dell'occupazione non agricola (ADP) (Apr)** 14:30 Esportazioni 14:30 Importazioni 14:30 Saldo della bilancia commerciale (Mar) CANADA 14:30 CAD Esportazioni (Mar) 14:30 CAD Importazioni (Mar) 14:30 CAD Saldo della bilancia commerciale (Mar) STATI UNITI 15:45 USD Indice Markit PMI Composito (Apr) 15:45 USD Indice dei direttori agli acquisti del settore terziario (Apr) 16:00 USD Indice ISM dell'occupazione non manifatturiera (Apr) **16:00 USD Indice ISM non manifatturiero (Apr)** GERMANIA 16:15 EUR Discorso di Wuermeling membro della Buba tedesca STATI UNITI **16:30 USD Scorte di petrolio greggio -0,829M 0,692M** 16:30 USD Inventario di Cushing, Oklahoma, delle giacenze di Crude Oil REGNO UNITO 16:45 Discorso di Woods, Vice Governatore della BoE GERMANIA 18:00 Discorso di Wuermeling membro della Buba tedesca **STATI UNITI 20:00 Decisioni del FOMC 20:00 Decisione sul tasso d’interesse dei fondi FED 20:30Conferenza stampa del FOMC **

**@elerianm:** Ahead of Friday’s US #jobs report, the ADP comes in better than consensus forecasts — and consistent with other indications of a strong labor market. The key remains enhancing labor force participation and real #wages. #economy #EconTwitter @CNBC https://t.co/UeZnbGlVQB https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1509143470858018825

**@CNBC:** Companies added 455,000 jobs in March, slightly more than expected, ADP says https://t.co/IBdkibVtdS https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1509143124001845249

quite the revision on ADP

**DATI MACRO** Modifica dell'occupazione ADP negli Stati Uniti 475.000 effettivi (previsione 375.000, precedente -301.000)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose from two-week lows on Friday, after data showed the world's largest economy created far more jobs than expected, raising the chances of a larger Federal Reserve interest rate hike in March. The dollar index, a gauge of its value against six major currencies, rose 0.3% to 95.597, after falling to a two-week low of 95.136 earlier amid a resurgent euro. But the dollar was still down 1.7% on the week, on pace for its largest weekly percentage decline since November 2020. Data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by 467,000 jobs last month. Data for December was revised higher to show 510,000 jobs created instead of the previously reported 199,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 150,000 jobs added in January. Estimates ranged from a decrease of 400,000 to a gain of 385,000 jobs. Market participants were prepared for a weaker-than-forecast reading given the decline in the ADP U.S. private payrolls report released earlier this week. That report showed a decline due to the impact of the Omicron coronavirus variant. Average hourly earnings, a measure of wage inflation and a closely-watched measure, also rose 0.7% last month, and 5.7% on a year-on-year basis. "You have average hourly earnings coming in much hotter than expected, which is just fuelling that theme of everything is just leading to more inflation," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst, at OANDA in New York "This report just screams inflation and inflationary pressures and is making anyone that was on the fence between the Fed raising 25 or 50 basis points in March now think they're going to go 50 and that's why you're seeing Treasury yields really skyrocket," he added. U.S. two-year yields, which reflect interest rate expectations, rose to 1.2970%, the highest since late February 2020, at the start of the global coronavirus pandemic. Following the U.S. jobs data, U.S. rate futures implied more than five rate hikes this year, or about 131 basis points in policy tightening. The probability of a 50 basis-point increase next month rose to about 32% from 18% before the data release. The euro was still up on the day, rising 0.1% at $1.1455. It was up 1.7% on the week, on track for its best weekly performance since late March 2020, supported after a hawkish turn by the European Central Bank (ECB) rippled through markets. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 9:28AM (1428 GMT) Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Dollar index 95.5180 95.3620 +0.17% -0.152% +95.6460 +95.1360 Euro/Dollar $1.1439 $1.1439 +0.00% +0.62% +$1.1483 +$1.1422 Dollar/Yen 115.2500 114.9950 +0.22% +0.11% +115.3900 +114.7700 Euro/Yen 131.84 131.53 +0.24% +1.17% +132.0000 +131.4600 Dollar/Swiss 0.9240 0.9200 +0.44% +1.30% +0.9255 +0.9195 Sterling/Dollar $1.3528 $1.3599 -0.52% +0.03% +$1.3614 +$1.3505 Dollar/Canadian 1.2763 1.2677 +0.67% +0.94% +1.2788 +1.2663 Aussie/Dollar $0.7068 $0.7140 -0.98% -2.74% +$0.7151 +$0.7052 Euro/Swiss 1.0568 1.0522 +0.44% +1.92% +1.0595 +1.0522 Euro/Sterling 0.8455 0.8412 +0.51% +0.65% +0.8469 +0.8406 NZ $0.6604 $0.6664 -0.87% -3.48% +$0.6683 +$0.6590 Dollar/Dollar Dollar/Norway 8.7845 8.7205 +0.93% -0.09% +8.8160 +8.6995 Euro/Norway 10.0505 9.9494 +1.02% +0.38% +10.0787 +9.9603 Dollar/Sweden 9.1474 9.0863 +0.62% +1.44% +9.1718 +9.0641 Euro/Sweden 10.4653 10.4007 +0.62% +2.26% +10.4855 +10.3900

Crypto Market Snoozes Through ADP Payroll Shocker https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/02/02/crypto-market-snoozes-through-adp-payroll-shocker/

la situazione del fxheatmap aggiornata vede molte inversioni intra day i dati ADP sembrano essere apprezzati dagli acquirenti pro dollaro facio il punto della situazione generalizata e ricordo che nonostante si vedano delle inversioni sul daily bisogna fare attenzione a prendere la cosa sul serio cioè siamo su min/max settimanali e a inizio mese con un attesa delle banche centrali europea e inglese occhio perchè la situazione potrebbe invertirsi come proseguire in trend

BOOM...BOOM...ADP USA NEGATIVO!

Gold fa esattamente quello che siè detto nella clip precedente adesso aspettiamo se ci saranno evoluzioni con l' appertura della sessione usa ci sono i dati su ADP cambiamento ocupazionale usa

**marketoutlook** rabu 17.00wib CPI ECB BUY 20.15wib ADP US SELL kamis 16.00wib PMI ECB SELL 19.45wib ECB MEETINGS 20.30wib LAGARDE SPEAKS jumat 17.00wib retail sales ECB BUY 20.30wib NFP SELL SECARA TEKNIKAL resistance euro ada di 1.1280 dan 1.13000 jika breakout bisa balik naik, namun jika tidak breakout maka ini lokasi terbaik Sell di pucuk. SECARA FUNDAMENTAL fokus pasar ada pada rapat ECB hari kamis dan NFP hari jumat. ECB kemungkinan akan mengecewakan pasar. karena tingkat laju inflasi sudah berada di 5% terlalu tinggi sedangkan ECB belum mau membicarakan suku bunga. pemgurangan PEPP pun baru akan dibahas di rapat bulan maret mendatang dan kondisi ini dirasa terlalu lambat ketika kita membandingkan betapa agresifnya the fed rapat akhir tahun kemarin tentang suku bunga. NFP sendiri the fed optimis bahwa tingat pengangguran amerika mulai menurun dan ini menimbulkan ekspektasi bahwa volume suku bunga akan meningkat sehingga akan memukul euro untuk turun kembali. rekomendasi SELL 1.12800 stoploss 1.1310 take profit 1.1200 target drop 80pips term and conds : abaikan jika breakout 1.1300 maka rekomendasi ini tidak berlaku dan bisa switch untuk buy 1.1310

Ed oggi abbiamo avuto l'ennesima conferma che non vi è alcun legame tra il dato ADP e NFP :)

didnt account for 400k jobs that ADP did in Jan

By Kanupriya Kapoor and Stella Qiu SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares mostly rose on Friday, snapping two days of losses after expectations grew that U.S. jobs data due later in the day would reinforce the need for faster U.S. interest rate hikes. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.7%, boosted by gains in Australia where the local benchmark climbed 1.3%, led by bank stocks. Japan's Nikkei, however, slipped 0.1%. China and Hong Kong stocks edged higher on hopes that Beijing will roll out more support measures to prioritise economic stability. Hong Kong stocks added 1.2%, and Chinese blue chips edged up 0.2%. An index of Hong Kong-listed mainland property stocks jumped 4.6% on media reports that Chinese policymakers plan to exclude debt accrued from acquiring distressed assets when assessing debt ratio compliance. Investors are likely adjusting to "attractive, cheaper" Asian stocks as the year kicks off, said Jim McCafferty, joint head of APAC equity research at Nomura. "With rates about to go up, from a global risk diversification point of view, investors are likely moving their money from U.S. markets into Asian markets, specifically China because it's increasingly independent of what the U.S. does," he said. Futures pointed to small opening gains in Europe and the United States. Pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were up 0.23% and S&P 500 e-mini stock futures advanced 0.2%. U.S. Treasury yields paused for breath in Asian hours on Friday having risen sharply this week after the Federal Reserve's December minutes showed that a tight jobs market and unrelenting inflation could force the U.S. central bank to raise rates more aggressively this year. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes was last at 1.7231% having reached 1.7530% overnight, its highest since April 2021 and up sharply from its 2021 close of 1.5118%. The two-year yield, which is closely linked to inflation expectations, was at 0.8741% just off the overnight high of 0.886%. Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Asset Management, said investors were waiting for U.S. employment figures due later on Friday and inflation data due next week to see whether they would reinforce or undermine the case for faster rate hikes. Non-farm payrolls likely increased by 400,000 jobs last month after rising 210,000 in November, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Prospects of a strong employment report were boosted by the ADP National employment report on Wednesday, which showed private payrolls increased by 807,000 jobs last month. In currency markets, higher yields meant the dollar index, which measures the greenback against six peers, has risen 0.55% this week. On Friday, the greenback held its gains against most majors while advancing 0.1% on the yen which was at 115.89 per dollar, in sight of Tuesday's five-year high of 116.34. Oil prices rallied, which some analysts linked to news that Russian paratroopers had arrived to quell unrest in Kazakhstan, though production in the OPEC+ producer country remains largely unaffected so far. Brent crude futures rose 0.9% to $82.71 a barrel, and U.S. crude rose 0.96% to $80.2. Spot gold stood at $1,790.01 an ounce after touching a two-week low of $1,788.25 on Thursday, as rising U.S. Treasury yields hurt demand for the non-interest bearing metal. Bitcoin dropped 3.4% to around $41,600, its lowest since late September.

By Lawrence Delevingne BOSTON (Reuters) - U.S. stocks were flat or down and Treasury yields largely unchanged Wednesday morning following earlier gains to start the new year and ahead of key Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released later in the day. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 13.26 points, or 0.04%, to 36,786.39; the S&P 500 lost 2.9 points, or 0.06%, to 4,790.64; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 45.86 points, or 0.29%, to 15,576.86. With U.S. inflation surging, investors will be looking at the minutes from the Fed's December meeting, set for release at 2 p.m. EST (1900 GMT), for signs of how willing policymakers are to tighten monetary policy and, if so, how quickly. "It's all about the degree to which the evidence in the minutes suggests that the majority of the committee is looking for a faster-than-expected pace of balance-sheet reduction," said Peter Chatwell, head of multi-asset strategy at Mizuho. With expectations for rate hikes as early as March, Treasury yields jumped on Monday and Tuesday. But on Wednesday they pulled back slightly, with the U.S. 10-year yield at 1.6543%, compared with the previous session's peak of 1.686%, which was the highest since late November. One positive economic indicator on Wednesday was the ADP National Employment report, which showed private payrolls increased by 807,000 jobs last month, more than double what economists polled by Reuters had forecast. Citing an optimistic corporate earnings forecast, market analysts at Citi raised their 2022 S&P 500 index price target to 5,100, a 7% gain from year-end 2021. "We remain moderately constructive on the broader market outlook, while acknowledging valuation headwinds as the Fed moves down a more hawkish path," the Citi analysts wrote. Citi's target was toward the higher end of other banks, with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) at 4,400 and Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) also at 5,100. "It’s still very much start-of-the-year mode," said Chatwell of Mizuho. "Risk appetite is, as is seasonally the case, strong at this point, and the consensus view is that there is good upside still in equity markets." Oil prices extended gains on Wednesday, rising toward $81 a barrel after OPEC+ producers stuck to an agreed output target rise for February and investors assessed the impact of a spike in COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant. U.S. crude rose 0.78% to $77.59 per barrel and Brent was at $80.69, up 0.86% on the day. The U.S. dollar index was down around 0.4% on the day, having edged down below recent two-week highs. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up about 1.7% at $46,617 - still significantly below its most recent all-time high of $69,000 reached in November. A new research note from Goldman Sachs said that bitcoin will take market share away from gold as a "store of value" in 2022 as digital assets become more widely adopted. Spot gold added 0.8% to $1,828.66 an ounce. U.S. gold futures gained 0.06% to $1,815.10 an ounce.

quelli che hanno lasciato il lavoro adesso saranno tutti traders 🤣 > @Renato_Decarolis said: In passato abbiamo avuto spesso dati differenti tra gli ADP e NFP.

In passato abbiamo avuto spesso dati differenti tra gli ADP e NFP.

*ADP Dec US Private Sector Jobs +807,000; Expected +375,000

BOOM...BOOM...ADP!

U.S. ADP PAYROLLS RISE WAS LARGEST SINCE MAY

USA ADP Employment Change for Dec 807.000K vs 400.000K Est; Prior 534.000K

ADP Dec job growth 807,000, way above expectations

By Geoffrey Smith Investing.com -- The U.S. labor market lost momentum significantly in November, defying expectations for another strong month of job gains. The Labor Department said nonfarm employment rose by only 210,000 through the middle of the month, down from 546,000 in October. The latter figure was revised up by 15,000 from its original estimate, but didn't come close to offsetting the disappointment of the November number, which was over 300,000 short of a consensus forecast of 550,000. Expectations for a strong report had hardened after payrolls processor ADP had said on Wednesday that the private sector had added 534,000 jobs in the month, by its calculations. There has also been little to suggest a weakening in labor market in other data, with the monthly Job Openings survey continuing to show near-record levels of vacancies. Despite the big shortfall in job creation, the unemployment rate fell by more than expected to 4.2% of the workforce from 4.6% in October. That reflected an increase in labor force participation, which rose to 61.8% of the adult population, from 61.6% in October. The participation rate, which has been a particular problem holding back the economic recovery this year, is now at its highest since March last year. "Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, transportation and warehousing, construction, and manufacturing," the Bureau of Labor Statistics said, adding that employment in the retail trade actually declined in the month leading up to the Thanksgiving holiday. The expansion of the labor force should, all other things being equal, take the steam out of some of the inflationary pressure that has built over the last year, in an environment of sustained high spending despite increasing supply-side constraints and bottlenecks. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged earlier this week that inflation was likely to remain higher for longer than at first estimated, largely due to such supply-side issues. However, all other things appear increasingly unlikely to stay equal in the near term, given the emergence of a new and seemingly more infectious strain of Covid-19 over the last week. The Omicron strain is now spreading rapidly through South Africa, the first country where it was detected, and has already been identified in more than two dozen countries across the world. Much of Europe has already announced a fresh wave of mobility and social distancing restrictions, with Germany - Europe's largest economy - effectively locking down unvaccinated adults in a suite of new measures prepared by the new government. U.S. President Joe Biden has announced the tightening of testing requirements on people arriving in the U.S. It is unclear that that will be enough to stop Omicron from spreading in the community. "Labor supply simply isn't returning quickly enough and, for companies desperate to hire, this is a huge problem," said ING chief international economist James Knightley in a note to clients. "The implication is that it constrains growth and pay is bid higher, with those cost increases likely passed onto consumers." He noted that the discrepancy between what employers were saying and what households were saying (the household survey of employment rose by over 1 million) made it hard to interpret the numbers cleanly. "Effectively you can defend any position by picking out the bits of the report that suits your view," Knightley said.

sorry, svista mia....comunque mi aspettavo lo stesso un pò di movimento.... > @Renato_Decarolis said: Era ADP, non NFP :)

Era ADP, non NFP :)

USA ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for Nov 534.000K vs 480.000K Est; Prior 571.000K

**Marketoutlook mingguan** senin 22.00wib Home Sales SELL selasa 17.00wib CPI ECB BUY 22.00wib Powell dan Yellen rabu 20.15wib ADP SELL 22.00wib Powell dan Yellen jumat 15.30wib Lagarde ECB SELL 20.30wib NFP SELL 22.00wib ISM SELL fundamental mata uang euro naik akibat kekawatiran pelaku pasar terhadap varian virus baru. fokus pasar ada di pidato Powell dan Yellen. kemungkinan akan membuat USD naik dan membuat euro turun. teknikal meskipun Euro akhir pekan kemarin bisa tembus 1.13000 akan tetapi testing ke 2 i i kemungkinan akan membentuk HL sehingga struktur bearish mulai membayangi euro untuk aksi taking profit sell. rekomendasi SELL 1.12960

@netxpert I was watching PLUG earlier at the open for a gap fill but AOS, ADP and PSX were my top rated plays over PLUG nevee entered PLUG or ADP but i definitely think PLUG could be a decent swing above $41

**MARKETOUTLOOK** senin 22.00wib ISM US SELL selasa 16.00wib PMI ECB SELL rabu 17.00wib ECB LAGARDE BUY 19.15wib ADP US SELL 22.00wib ISM NON SELL kamis 01.00wib FOMC SELL 02.30wib POWELL FED BUY 20.00wib LAGARDE ECB BUY jumat 17.00wib RETAIL SALES ECB SELL 19.30wib NFP SELL secara teknikal pekan lalu mata uang EURUSD tidak berhasil naim diatas resistance 1.1670 sehingga rejection kembali 1.1600, dan breakout dibawah 1.1600 tepatnya di 1.1556. minggu ini kemungkinan akan testing kembali ke resistance 1.16000 jika testing minggu ini tidak mampu kemungkinan bisa ke 1.1490 sebagai support tahunan EURUSD. secara fundamental meskipun kemarin rapat ECB tanpa adanya informasi tapering membuat euro naik namun ekspektasi pasar akhir minggu yakin bahwa the Fed akan melakukan tapering hari kamis ini. ini disebut “ price in”. diprediksi the Fed akan mengurangi stimulus sebesar 15Milyar USD mulai besok kamis ini. namun demikian Powell berulang kali memperjelas ke investor bahwa tidak akan ada suku bunga dalam beberap tahun mendatang. pernyataan ini diperkuat Janet Yellen yang tidak mempermasalahkan kenaikkan inflasi akan terjadi dalan beberap tahun mendatang, ini akan membantu the fed dalam pencapaian pemenuhan lapangan pekerjaan. karena 2 hal ini hasil NFP hari jumat besok akan dijadikan pelaku pasar sebagai acuhan seberapa besar dampak stimulus ini akan memberbesar jumlah penyerapan tenagakerja di amerika. kesimpulan EURUSD bearish tunggu harga menyentuh resistance , cari harga tertinggi untuk mendapatkan sell di pucuk. pidato FOMC tidak akan berdampak signifikan dikarenakan harga telah price in. ➡️baca materi saya tentang price in . fokus pasar ada di hari Jumat seperti apa hasil NFP yang disampaikan yellen relevan atau tidak sebagai acuan inflasi yang dibiarkan terlalu tinggi.

i love weeks when ADP is 500K+ and NFP is total shit - one of them needs to go to jail

ADP already gave a sneak peak to NFP tomorrow

NFP might be strong as suggested by ADP

USA ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for Sep 568.000K vs 428.000K Est; Prior Revised from 374.000K to 340.000KUSA ADP Nonfarm Employment Change for Sep 568.000 thousand vs 428.000 thousand consensus estimate

Thursday, September 2, 2021 Futures Up/Down % Last Dow 45.00 0.13% 35,335 S&P 500 6.25 0.14% 4,527 Nasdaq 29.50 0.19% 15,638 Stock index futures are indicating a higher open with rates edging down (10-year drops back below 1.3%) as investors await another set of numbers on the labor market in the form of weekly jobless claims, ahead of Friday’s payrolls report (which followed a weaker private payroll report from ADP yesterday). A brutal night across the Northeast saw tornado watches and flash flood warnings for parts of the Tri-State Area as remnants of Hurricane Ida brought in heavy winds and drenching rains that turned major highways into rivers and even showed water rushing through Newark Liberty International Airport, canceling all flights there. The tail-end of hurricane Ida dumped a “record breaking” amount of rain over New York and New Jersey putting both areas into states of emergency. Hurricane Ida, which devastated Louisiana this week, could mobilize lawmakers to pass the bipartisan $1T infrastructure bill, which is making its way through Congress. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 92 points to 28,543, he Shanghai Index climbed 29 points to 2,597, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 62 points to settle at 26,090. In Europe, markets are quiet as the German DAX is flat at 15,825, while the FTSE 100 is down a few points to 7,145. Bitcoin prices moved back above the $50K level overnight, last trading up 3.3% around $49,900 in a rebound for crypto; Ethereum prices up modestly after outperformance Wednesday, last around $3,750. Crude is rising after OPEC+ ministers’ unity reinforced market stability Events Calendar for Today 7:30 AM ET Challenger Layoffs for Aug 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 345K 8:30 AM EST Continuing Claims…est. 2.775M 8:30 AM ET International Trade for July…est. (-$71.0B) 8:30 AM ET Nonfarm Productivity, Q2…est. 2.4% 8:30 AM ET Unit Labor Costs for Q2…est. 0.9% 10:00 AM ET Factory Orders MoM for July…est. 0.3% 10:00 AM ET Durable Goods Orders MoM for July 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: AEO, BNED, BRC, CIEN, DCI, DLTH, GCO, GIII, GMS, JRL, JW/A, KIRK, LE, MCFT, MEI, SCWX, SIG, TTC Earnings After the Close: AVGO, COO, CTHR, CTLP, DOCU, GWRE, HPE, JOAN, LAW, MDB, MDLA, MEIP, NX, OOMA, OXM, PD, SAIC, TLYS, YEXT Other Key Events: Barclay’s Media & Telecom Forum (virtual), 9/1-9/2 Stephens Auto investor Field Trip, 9/1-9/2 Caixin Services PMI for Aug Market Closing Prices Yesterday The S&P 500 Index gained 1.41 points, or 0.03%, to 4,524.09 The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -48.20 points, or 0.14%, to 35,312.53 The Nasdaq Composite climbed 50.15 points, or 0.33%, to 15,309.38 The Russell 2000 Index advanced 13.28 points, or 0.58% to 2,287.06 Macro Up/Down Last Nymex 0.36 68.95 Brent 0.38 71.97 Gold 1.50 1,815.40 EUR/USD 0.0015 1.1854 JPY/USD 0.00 110.01 10-Year Note -0.013 1.289% Sector News Breakdown Consumer Chewy ($CHWY) shares fell -10%; 2Q adj EBITDA $23.3Mm vs est. 34.4Mm on sales $2.16B vs est. $2.2B; sees FY net sales $8.9B-$9.0B vs. est. $9.0B Costco ($COST) reported total comparable sales for Aug. that beat the average analyst estimate; Aug. total comparable sales +14.2%, estimate +12.5%; Aug. U.S. comparable sales excluding fuel, currencies +10.1%, estimate +7.10% Five Below ($FIVE) shares fell -9%; 2Q EPS $1.15 vs est. $1.11 on sales $646.6Mm vs est. $648.3Mm; guides 3Q net sales $550-565Mm on +MSD comps vs est. $551Mm, sees EPS $0.23-0.30 vs est. $0.27 Hormel Foods ($HRL) shares fall -4%; Q3 adj EPS $0.39, in-line with estimates; Q3 revs $2.86B vs. est. $2.73B; Q2 volume of 1.2B pounds, up 1%; organic volume down 2%; operating margin 7.2%; cuts FY21 EPS view to $1.65-$1.69 from $1.70-$1.82, while raises FY21 revenue view to $11B-$11.2B from $10.2B-$10.8B Chinese regulators summoned 11 ride-hailing firms including DIDI Global ($DIDI) to discuss concerns related to the sector; China’s transport ministry highlighted the hiring of unqualified drivers and use of promotions that disrupt fair market order during the meeting Sportsman’s Warehouse ($SPWH) Q2 adj EPS $0.44 vs. est. $0.48; Q2 sales $361.8M vs. est. $345.6M; said Q2 same store sales decreased 9.9% compared to the same period last year; For the first half of fiscal year 2021, same store sales increased 3.4% compared to the same period last year; Adjusted EBITDA was $35.2M compared to $53.6M in the comparable prior year period; not providing guidance Smith & Wesson Brands ($SWBI) Q1 adj EPS $1.57 vs. est. $1.29; Q1 revs $274.6M vs. est. $278.59M; record gross margin of 47.3% vs. 40.2% last year ChargePoint Holdings ($CHPT) rises 12%; 2Q EPS ($0.29) vs est. ($0.13) on revs $56.1Mm vs est. $49.1Mm, says activated ports exceed 118,000 with over 5,400 in Europe and over 3,700 DC fast charge ports; guides 3Q revs $60-65Mm vs est. $54.7Mm, sees FY revs $225-235Mm up from $195M-$205M vs est. $206.6Mm DraftKings ($DKNG) announced the launch of DraftKings Online Sportsbook in Wyoming, marking the thirteenth state in which its mobile sportsbook is available Tesla ($TSLA) now aims for Full Self-Driving Beta public release ~September 25th, Electrek reports https://electrek.co/2021/09/01/tesla-full-self-driving-beta-public-release-4-weeks/ Energy, Industrials and Materials Greif ($GEF) Q3 adj EPS $1.93 vs. est. $1.54; Q3 revs $1.49B vs. est. $1.39B; sees FY21 EPS $5.10-$5.30 vs. est. $4.63; sees FY21 adjusted free cash flow $335M-$365M Ingersoll Rand Inc. ($IR) authorized a new share repurchase program of $750 mln Exelon ($EXC) tells Illinois lawmakers and Gov. J.B. Pritzker to finalize an energy policy deal by September 13 or face the permanent closure of one of the state’s six nuclear power plants. Energy Transfer ($ET) signed a 15-year power purchase agreement to buy 120 MW of electricity from SoftBank’s ($SFTBY) Eiffel Solar project in northeast Texas; financial terms are not disclosed. General Electric ($GE) was awarded a not-to-exceed $1.65B firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery, performance-based logistics requirements contract for the repair, upgrade or replacement, inventory management, and required supply response times of 17 F414 engine components in support of the F/A-18 aircraft Virgin Galactic ($SPCE) slips after the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said on Wednesday it is investigating descent deviation of July 11 flight of SPCE rocket plane that carried British billionaire Richard Branson. FAA spokesman told Reuters vehicle “deviated from its Air Traffic Control clearance as it returned to Spaceport America. The FAA investigation is ongoing.” Donaldson ($DCI) Q4 EPS $0.66 in-line with estimates; Q4 revs $773.1M vs. est. $770.69M; sees FY22 EPS $2.50-$2.66 vs. est. $2.68; sees FY22 sales growth of 5%-10% (est. $3.12B) OPEC+ and its allies agreed yesterday to stick to their existing plan for gradual monthly oil-production increases after a video conference. Ministers ratified the 400,000 barrel-a-day supply hike scheduled for October after one of the quickest meetings in recent memory. Financials CIBC to become exclusive credit card issuer for Costco Mastercard’s in Canada and acquire existing Costco Canadian credit card portfolio Over the last six months SPACs have lost $75 billion. A group of 137 SPACs that closed mergers by mid-February have lost 25% of their combined value. At one point last month, the pullback topped $100 billion – WSJ Healthcare FDA AdComm to discuss Pfizer ($PFE) and BioNTech SE ($BNTX) application for COVID-19 Booster on September 17th Assembly Biosciences, Inc. ($ASMB) shares fall -20%, as the clinical-stage biotechnology company developing innovative therapeutics targeting hepatitis B virus ($HBV), today announced its decision to discontinue development of ABI-H2158 (2158) following the observation of elevated ALT levels consistent with drug-induced hepatotoxicity in an ongoing Phase 2 trial. Cannabis space: The newly inaugurated governor of New York says she wants to “jumpstart” the implementation of marijuana legalization—and she took a major step on Wednesday by making two key regulatory appointments for the state’s cannabis market that have now been confirmed in a Senate committee during a special session (watch shares of $TLRY, $CURLF, $GTBIF, $CRON) https://bit.ly/3jzhR0D Phreesia ($PHR) 2Q EPS ($0.48) vs est. ($0.10) on revs $51Mm vs est. $47.2Mm, says avg number of provider clients was 1,987 in qtr vs 1,668 prior year +19%; guides FY revs $195-198Mm vs est. $193.4Mm, continue to expect overall cash outflow to increase in FY22 vs FY21 NeoGenomics Inc ($NEO) files prospectus related to resale or other disposition of 4.4 mln shares by selling stockholders Ascendis Pharma ($ASND)5M share Secondary priced at $160.00 Technology, Media & Telecom Asana ($ASAN) Q2 adj EPS loss (-$0.23) vs. est. loss (-$0.26); Q2 revs $89.5M vs. est. $82.24M; sees Q3 adj EPS loss (27c)-(26c) vs. est. loss (-$0.28); sees Q3 revs $93M-$94M vs. est. $86.72M; raises FY22 revenue view to $357M-$359M from $336M-$340M (est. $338.81M); Revenues from customers spending $5,000 or more on an annualized basis grew 97% YoY; customers spending $50,000 or more on an annualized basis increased to 598, up 111% YoY ai ($AI) shares fell -10%; Q1 EPS loss (-$0.37) vs. est. loss (-$0.28); Q1 revs $52.4M vs. est. $51.16M; said Q1 included YoY increases of 29% in revenue and 31% in gross profit; sees Q2 revenue $56M-$58M vs. est. $56.12M; sees FY22 revenue $243M-$247M vs. est. $245.4M; Q1 Subscription revenue was $46.1M, up from $35.7M one year ago, an increase of 29% Yoy eGain ($EGAN) 4Q adj EPS $0.08 vs est. $0.03 on revs $20.2Mm vs est. $19.9Mm; guides 1Q adj EPS $0.02-0.05 vs est. $0.03, sees 1Q revs $20.9-21.3Mm vs est. $20.6Mm; guides FY revs $88.2-89.8Mm vs est. $87.1Mm; sees FY adj EPS ($0.03) to $0.00 vs est. $0.20 nCino ($NCNO) 2Q adj EPS ($0.02) vs est. ($0.06) on revs $66.5Mm vs est. $63.7Mm; guides 3Q adj net EPS loss $0.06-0.07 vs est. loss $0.06, sees 3Q revs $66-67Mm vs est. $65.1Mm; guides FY adj EPS net loss $0.22-0.23 vs est. loss $0.23, sees FY revs $263-264Mm vs est. $259.1Mm Nutanix ($NTNX) Q4 adj EPS loss (-$0.26) vs. est. loss (-$0.42); Q4 revs $390.7M vs. est. $362.88M; operating expenses topped revenue at $454.1M though rose from $432.3M a year ago; sees Q1 ACV Billings $172M-$177M Okta ($OKTA) Q2 adj EPS loss (-$0.11) vs. est. loss (-$0.35); Q2 revs $316M vs. est. $296.52M; sees Q3 adj EPS loss (25c)-(24c) vs. est. loss (-$0.34); sees Q3 revs $325M-$327M vs. est. $322.93M; raises FY22 adjusted EPS loss view (77c)-(74c) from ($1.16)-($1.13); Q2 revenue grew 57% year-over-year; subscription revenue grew 59% YoY; remaining performance obligations (RPO) grew 57% YoY to $2.24 billion Semtech ($SMTC) 2Q adj EPS $0.65 vs est. $0.62 on sales $185Mm vs est. $182.9Mm; guides 3Q adj EPS $0.68-0.76 vs est. $0.67 with adj gr margin 62.8-63.8%, adj SG&A $33.5-34.5Mm, adj R&D $32.5-33.5Mm Veev Systems ($VEEV) 2Q adj EPS $0.94 vs est. $0.87 on revs $455.6Mm vs est. $451.9Mm; guides 3Q adj EPS $0.87-0.88 vs est. $0.86, sees 3Q revs $464-466Mm vs est. $460Mm; guides FY revs $1.83-1.835B vs est. $1.823B, sees FY adj EPS about $3.57 vs est. $3.47 China’s Alibaba Group ($BABA) will invest 100 billion yuan ($15.5 billion) by 2025 in support of “common prosperity”, it said, becoming the latest corporate giant to pledge support for the initiative driven by President Xi Jinping Ireland hit Facebook’s ($FB) WhatsApp with a record 225 million euro ($266 million) fine on Thursday following an inquiry into the messaging app’s transparency around sharing personal data with other Facebook companies.

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian share markets were in a cautious mood on Thursday as concerns grew over the Chinese economy after a run of soft data, while the risk of a sub par U.S. payrolls report kept the dollar on the defensive. A raft of manufacturing surveys suggested supply bottlenecks were tightening again with eight of nine Asian countries reporting longer delivery times. "The spread of the Delta variant amid still-low vaccination rates in many ASEAN economies and China's zero-tolerance Covid strategy have prompted governments to impose restrictions and order factory/port closures," warned analysts at Nomura. "Input shortages and low inventories will likely lead to production cuts and delayed shipments in Q3." The uncertainty kept Chinese blue chips flat, though speculation of more fiscal stimulus offered some support. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased 0.2% from a five-week high. Japan's Nikkei added 0.2%, while South Korea fell 0.9%. Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures were barely changed, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures both dipped 0.1%. Wall Street has been preoccupied with second guessing U.S. August payrolls, due out on Friday, with the task made all the more uncertain by a disappointing reading on ADP private payrolls but a solid ISM survey of manufacturing. [nN9N2NL019[ Median forecasts are for a strong rise of 750,000 jobs, but they range from 375,000 to 1.02 million with the ADP report prompting speculation the risks are to the downside. Yet a soft number could be positive for risk assets since it would lessen pressure for an early tapering from the Federal Reserve. "A print closer to 400k rather than 800k effectively means that the Fed's condition of "further substantial progress" in the labour market will take longer to materialise, thus delaying the tapering decision from September to November," said Rodrigo Catril, a senior FX strategist at NAB. "Bad news in the labour market are good news for risk assets given the punchbowl will remain well liquefied for a bit longer." ECB HAWKS SOUND OFF Amid the jobs chatter, 10-year Treasury yields eased back to 1.30% and away from the recent top of 1.375%, while the U.S. dollar index touched a one-month low. The euro also reached its highest since early August at $1.1856 and was last holding steady at $1.1840. The single currency was aided by hawkish comments from Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann who cautioned against inflation risks and called for a slowdown in bond buying by the European Central Bank. In contrast, the Bank of Japan shows no sign of tapering its massive purchases as the country remains mired in a decades-long battle with deflation. That kept the dollar firm at 110.00 yen and comfortably within the tight 108.71 to 110.79 range that has lasted for the past two months. Commodities would likely benefit from any delay in Fed tapering, helping underpin gold at $1,812 an ounce but short of resistance around $1,823. Oil prices eased after OPEC+ agreed to stick to a policy of adding 400,000 barrels per day a month to the market, though it also defied pressure for an even larger increase. [O/R] "Ignoring calls from the White House for further barrel increases, we think that OPEC+ will stay on this current course unless there is a clear deterioration in the demand outlook," said analysts at RBC Capital Markets in a note. "Moreover, we reiterate that if there is a price bias for the majority of the OPEC+ membership, it is to the upside given the high fiscal breakevens of member states." Brent slipped 20 cents to $71.39 a barrel, while U.S. crude lost 27 cents to $68.32.

Goldman: "today’s ADP report suggests potential downside risk to our August nonfarm payroll forecast of +600k"

ADP non farm a moss

ADP Non-farm employment miss

lol i pity anyone who was positioned for a week nonfarm payroll number based on adp. backtested data suggests the two are not highly correlated.

diesmal ADP diametral anders als NFP ...da ist auch kein Verlass mehr drauf 😂

Thursday, August 5, 2021 Futures Up/Down % Last Dow 55.00 0.16% 34,745 S&P 500 9.25 0.22% 4,404 Nasdaq 33.50 0.22% 15,107 U.S. futures are looking up modestly, rising roughly about 0.2% across the board into one of the heaviest days of corporate earnings of the season, as major averages continue to hold not far off record highs. The S&P 500 index has held the pivotal 4,400 level for over a week now, as overall major averages have moved sideways for two or three weeks now, bolstered by rising on better economic data, earnings results, and an accommodative Fed, which has offset rising Delta variant concerns and fears of further global restrictions to contain the rise in cases and tighter government restrictions in China. Oil prices edge higher after sliding sharply the last 3-days on demand concerns. Bitcoin prices are down about 4% holding just above the $38,000 level while Ethereum slips nearly 4% to 2,600 in the crypto sector. Ahead of tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report, investors will get two more labor market data points with the Challenger jobs report at 7:30 and the weekly jobless claims. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.5% around best levels for the week. Wednesday’s after-hours big-name earnings were disappointing for the most part, which could weigh on sentiment. Major averages ended the session mixed on Wednesday, following conflicting signals on the economy that showed a hot services sector, but a labor market that continues to struggle to find workers. The Institute for Supply Management survey on Wednesday jumped to a record high of 64.1 in July, but the ADP Employment Report showed private payrolls only rose by 330,000 last month, well shy of the 695,000 estimate ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls. The Dow Jones saw the biggest fall, dragged lower by a decline of more than 6% in Amgen in the wake of its quarterly results, accounting for about 103 points to the downside while energy was the weakest sector on the day, suffering its biggest daily percentage drop since July 19. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index gained 144 points to 27,728, the Shanghai Index dipped -10 points to 3,466 and the Hang Seng Index declined -221 points (0.84%) to settle at 26,204. In Europe, markets are little changed as the German DAX is up a few points at the 15,700 level, while the FTSE 100 is down a couple of points at 7.120. Market Closing Prices Yesterday The S&P 500 Index slipped -20.49 points, or 0.46%, to 4,402.66 The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -323.73 points, or 0.92%, to 34,792.67 The Nasdaq Composite edged higher 19.24 points, or 0.13%, to 14,780.53 The Russell 2000 Index declined -27.26 points, or 1.23% to 2,196.32 Events Calendar for Today 7:30 AM ET Challenger Job Layoffs for July 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims 8:30 AM EST Continuing Claims 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: ABMD, ADNT, AES, AHCO, AKBA, AMRS, ARWR, AVEO, BBGI, BCRX, BDX, BERY, BKI, BLDR, BLL, BV, CAH, CARS, CCOI, CHH, CI, CNP, COMM, CRAI, DDOG, DIN, DLX, DUK, ECOM, EPAM, EPC, EVRG, FOUR, GCP, GNL, GOGO, GOLF, GTN, HBI, HBIO, HII, HL, IDCC, INSM, IRM, IRWD, ITI, K, KPTI, LAMR, LAUR, LNG, LXP, MMS, MPLN, MRNA, MUR, MYE, NINE, NS, NTLA, PCTY, PBH, PBPB, PEI, PENN, PH, PNW, PPL, PRTY, PWR, PZZA, RC, RDUS, REGN, ROLL, SEAS, SSYS, TEN, THS, TRGP, UFS, USPH, VG, VIAC, VST, W, WD, WOW, WRK, XEC, XERS, XTNT, XXII, YETI, ZIXI, ZTS Earnings After the Close: AAOI, AEE, AEL, AIG, AINV, ALRM, ALTR, AMBC, APLE, APPN, ARNA, ASTG, AVLR, AXON, BAND, BECN, BGS, BHF, BIGC, BKD, BL, BRBR, BRKS, BYND, CARG, CDXS, CGNX, CHRS, CHUY, CLNE, CNXN, COLD, CSOD, CVNA, CWK, DBX, DHX, DIOD, EB, ECOR, EGLE, ENTA, ENV, ERII, EXEL, EXPE, FEYE, FLDM, FLS, FND, FOXF, FSR, FTSI, G, GDYN, GEOS, GH, GKOS, GPRO, GRPN, GSBD, HASI, HCAT, HCI, HEAR, HTA, IFF, ILMN, IHRT, IOVA, IRTC, ITT, JCOM, KALA, KAMN, LGF.A, LNT, LOCO, LTHM, MAIN, MDRX, MNST, MP, MSI, MTW, MTZ, NET, NKTR, NVAX, NWSA, NYMT, OLED, OUT, PBYI, PK, PODD, POST, PRA, QDEL, RAMP, RDFN, REZI, RMD, RUN, SFM, SGMO, SHAK, SPCE, SQ, SYNA, TDC, TGH, TMDX, TMST, TRUE, TRUP, TTOO, VLDR, VMEO, VOYA, VV, WSC, Y, YELP, ZEUS, ZG, ZNGA Macro Up/Down Last Nymex 0.37 68.52 Brent 0.26 70.64 Gold 0.40 1,811.75 EUR/USD 0.0005 1.1842 JPY/USD 0.03 109.51 10-Year Note -0.004 1.19% Sector News Breakdown Consumer Boot Barn ($BOOT) Q1 EPS $1.35 vs est. $0.88 in revs $306.3M vs est. $288.9M; same-store sales +78.9% vs 1Q20, +52.3% vs 1Q19; opened 3 new stores in the quarter Costco ($COST) reported total comparable sales for July of +13.8%; July U.S. comparable sales excluding fuel, currencies +8.5% L.F. Beauty ($ELF) 1Q EPS $0.15 vs est. $0.15 on sales $97Mm vs est. $79.3Mm; guides FY adj EPS $0.65-0.68 vs est. $0.67, sees FY sales $356-364Mm vs est. $350.5Mm Etsy Inc. ($ETSY) shares tumble -13% on guidance; 2Q EPS $0.68 vs est. $0.63 on revs $528.9Mm vs est. $524.7Mm, qtrly consolidated GMS $3.0B +13%; guides 3Q revs $500-525Mm vs est. $524.7Mm, sees 3Q GMS $2.9-3.0B Frontdoor Inc. ($FTDR) Q2 EPS $0.76 vs est. $0.63 on revs $462M vs est. $466M, sees Q3 revenue $470M-$480M, lowered FY revenue outlook to $1.6B-$1.62B (est. $1.64B) from $1.63B-$1.65B Jack in the Box ($JACK) Q3 EPS $1.79 vs est. $1.49 on revs $269.5M vs est. $258.5M, same-store sales +10.2%, systemwide sales +10.6%, company-operated same-store sales +9.0%, sees FY21 capex $40M-$45M, FY22 capex $65M-$75M Leslie’s ($LESL) Q3 adj EPS $0.64 vs. est. $0.55; Q3 revs $596.54M vs. est. $570.37M; Q3 comparable sales growth of 23.9%; raises FY21 adjusted EPS view 80c-85c from 75c-80c (est. 77c) and boosts FY21 revs to $1.31B-$1.33B from $1.28B-$1.3B (est. $1.3B); Adjusted EBITDA of $179.3 million compared to $119.8 million in the prior year quarter, an increase of 49.7% MGM Resorts ($MGM) 2Q adj EPS ($0.13) vs est. ($0.30) on net revs $2.3B vs est. $2.28B, MGM China net revs $311Mm, LV Strip net revs $1.0B, regional net revs $856Mm Rent-A-Center ($RCII) 2Q adj EPS $1.63 vs est. $1.35 on revs $1.2B vs est. $1.14B, qtrly comps +16.6% led by e-comm; guides FY revs $4.55-4.67B vs est. $4.56B, sees Rent-A-Center segment revs $2.02-2.06B, sees FY adj EPS $5.90-6.40 vs est. $5.66; announces $250Mm repurchase auth Uber ($UBER) Q2 EPS $0.58 on revs $3.93B vs. est. $3.74B; Q2 gross bookings grew 114% yoy to $21.9 billion, or 104% on a constant currency basis, with Mobility Gross Bookings of $8.6 billion and Delivery Gross Bookings of $12.9 billion; Q2 Adj EBITDA Loss $509M vs. est. loss $324.5M; sees Q3 Adj EBITDA loss below $100M vs. est. loss $95.4M Wynn Resorts (WYNN) 2Q adj EPS ($1.12) vs est. ($1.61) on revs $990.1Mm vs est. $932.5Mm, Wynn Macau revs $184Mm, LV ops revs $355.1Mm ADT Inc. ($ADT) adj EPS ($0.07) vs est. $0.25 on revs $1.304B vs est. $1.28B; Gross recurring monthly revenue (RMR) additions grew 28%; end of period RMR of $352 million increased by 4%; solid customer retention with attrition at 13.3% Driven Brands ($DRVN) 12M share Secondary priced at $29.50 European Wax Center ($EWCZ)6M share IPO priced at $17.00 Weber ($WEBR) 18M (which was cut down from 46.8M) share IPO priced at $14.00 Energy APA Inc. ($APA) Q2 adj EPS $0.70 vs. est. $0.57’ Q2 revs $1.75B vs. est. $1.46B; qtrly adjusted production, which excludes Egypt noncontrolling interest and tax barrels, was 342,000 boe per day; at current strip prices, we expect to generate approximately $1.7B of free cash flow this year Earthstone Energy ($ESTE) files for offering of up to 6.2 mln shares of class a common stock by selling stockholders Marathon Oil ($MRO) Q2 EPS $0.22 vs. est. $0.15; Q2 revs $1.14B vs. est. $1.09B; Q2 oil-equivalent production of 348,000 net boed; raising 2021 full year oil-equivalent production guidance by 5,000 net boed; Q2 oil production of 170,000 net bopd; raised quarterly base dividend by 25% to 5c; raising the midpoint of its 2021 full year U.S. oil-equivalent production guidance by 5,000 net boed Warrior Met Coal ($HCC) 2Q adj EPS $0.25 vs est. ($0.18) on revs $227.4Mm vs est. $128.3Mm; not providing FY guide at this time Whiting Petroleum ($WLL) Q2 adj EPS $3.01 vs. est. $1.97; Q2 revs $352M vs. est. $244.27M; said generated net cash provided by operating activities of $183M and $111M in adjusted free cash flow during the quarter and over $200 million through six months; raises FY21 production view to 88-92 MBOE per day from 82-88 Financials Allstate Corp. ($ALL) Q2 adj EPS $3.79 vs. est. $3.04; Q2 revs $12.65B vs. est. $10.51B; announces new $5B repurchase program; 2Q Book Value Per Shr $86.33; Q2 Catastrophe Loss $952M; Q2 Property-Liability Premiums Earned $10.01B; 2Q Property-Liability Premiums Written $10.32B;2Q Property-Liability Combined Ratio 95.7 Fleetcor ($FLT) Q2 EPS $2.30 vs est. $2.94, adj EPS $3.15, on revs $667.4M vs est. $637.3M; its board increased its share repurchase authorization by$1B; sees Q3 adj EPS $3.35-$3.55 vs est. $3.36, and raised outlook for FY adj EPS to $12.80-$13 (est. $12.61) from $12.32-$12.88 and FY revs to $2.74B-$2.79B (est. $2.68B) from $2.6B-$2.7B Lemonade ($LMND) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.90) vs. est. loss (-$0.89); Q2 revs $28.2M vs. est. $26.8M; customer count increased by 48% to 1,206,172 yoy; premium per customer, defined as in force premium divided by customers, was $246 at the end of the second quarter, up 29% yoy; raises FY21 revenue view to $123M-$125M from $117M-$120M (est. $118.94M); narrows FY21 adjusted EBITDA view to ($173M)-($169M) from ($173M)-($163M) Lincoln National ($LNC) Q2 adj operating EPS $3.17 vs. est. $2.35; Q2 revs $4.85B vs. est. $4.72B; Reports book value per share, including AOCI, of $115.00, up 7%; BVPS, excluding AOCI, of $75.45, up 9% MetLife ($MET) announces new $3B share repurchase authorization; Q2 adj EPS $2.37 vs. est. $1.57; Q2 revs $18.52M vs. est. $15.77B; qtrly premiums, fees & other revenues $11.22 bln vs $10.49 bln; qtrly net investment income $5.28 bln vs $4.09 bln; book value of $75.86 per share at qtr-end, down 4% from $78.65 per share at June 30, 2020 RE/MAX Holdings ($RMAX) 2Q adj EPS $0.63 vs est. $1.31 on revs $77.2Mm vs est. $76.4Mm; guides 3Q revs $86.5-91.5Mm vs est. $79.1Mm; sees FY revs $321-336Mm vs est. $308.7Mm Western Union (WU) Q2 adj EPS $0.48 vs. est. $0.47; Q2 revs $1.3B vs. est. $1.26B; reaffirms FY21 adj EPS view $2.00-$2.10 vs. est. $2.06; reaffirms FY21 revenue growth view mid-to-high single digits; Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) transactions increased 15% in the quarter, while revenues increased 15% on a reported basis, or 12% constant currency. Robinhood ($HOOD) filed with the SEC a prospectus related to the offer and sale from time to time of up to 97,876,033 shares of Class A common stock of Robinhood Markets, Inc. by certain selling stockholders

ADP Reading For June Was Revised Lower From The Initially-Reported 692K Jobs Added To 680K Jobs Added

USA ADP Employment Change for Jul 330.000K vs 695.000K Est; Prior 692.000K

Wednesday, August 4, 2021 Futures Up/Down % Last Dow -25.00 0.07% 34,973 S&P 500 -1.25 0.04% 4,413 Nasdaq 11.50 0.08% 15,058 U.S. S&P futures are flat heading into the trading day, looking to build on record highs from Tuesday as positive earnings boost U.S and European stocks while worries over China’s gaming and technology crackdown ease, helping lift those markets. Risk sentiment improves across Asia as Chinese and Hong Kong stocks push higher on tech recovery and solid Caixin PMI data. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -57 points to 27,854, the Shanghai Index rose 29 points to 3,477 and the Hang Seng Index jumped 231 points to settle at 26,426. In Europe, the German DAX is climbing around 125 points to 15,680, while the FTSE 100 is up 0.4% to 7,135. Chinese Jul Caixin Services PMI beat: 54.9 vs 50.6 consensus. Some also see the spread of the Covid-19 delta variant as delaying rather than stopping the economic recovery. The New York Times reported overnight that the FDA plans to give full approval to Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech (BNTX) coronavirus vaccine by the start of the next month. Earnings season has been strong with about 87% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings and revenue beats, according to FactSet. Just under 70% of the S&P 500 now has reported earnings. The S&P 500 closed at record highs with gains in Apple and healthcare stocks, as concerns over a surge in the Delta variant of the coronavirus was put to the back-burner, overshadowed by continued upbeat corporate earnings. Ten of the 11 S&P indexes traded higher, with energy stocks rebounding after getting hit by a dip in oil prices. Market Closing Prices Yesterday The S&P 500 Index gained 35.99 points, or 0.82%, to 4,423.15 The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 278.24 points, or 0.80%, to 35,116.40 The Nasdaq Composite climbed 80.23 points, or 0.55%, to 14,761.29 The Russell 2000 Index advanced 8.09 points, or 0.36% to 2,223.58 Events Calendar for Today 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data 8:15 AM ET ADP Employment Change for July…est. 695K 9:45 AM ET Markit Composite PMI, July-F 9:45 AM ET Markit Services PMI, July-F 10:00 AM ET ISM Non-Manufacturing Services PMI for July…est. 60.5 10:30 AM ET Weekly DOE Inventory Data Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: ABC, AEIS, ALE, APO, ASTE, BCOR, BDC, BGCP, BWA, CDW, CLVS, CLH, CLW, CMLS, CRL, CSII, DNOW, DOC, EDIT, EMR, ETR, EXC, FLOW, FUN, GEL, GM, HDSN, HFC, HZNP, IONS, JLL, KHC, LL, MAC, MKL, MPC, MPLX, MTOR, NI, NYT, ODP, RCL, SBGI, SGRY, SITE, SMG, SPR, SUP, TGI, TUP, TXMD, UTHR, VCEL, VMC, WLL Earnings After the Close: ACAD, ACLS, ADPT, ADTN, AGL, ALB, ALL, AMED, ANGI, ANSS, APA, ATO, AXGN, BBSI, BE, BFAM, BKNG, BOOT, CCMP, CDAY, CENX, CHNG, CMP, CPS, DGII, DOX, DVAX, DXC, EA, EGHT, ELF, EMKR, EOG, ETSY, EVH, FLT, FOXA, FSLY, FTDR, GDDY, GNK, HI, HUBS, IAC, INGN, IVR, JACK, LESL, LNC, LPI, LUMN, MAXR, MBI, MCK, MED, MET, MGM, MOD, MRO, MTG, NUS,NVRO, ONEM, PARR, PDCE, $PING, PLYA, QRVO, QTWO, RCII, REGI, RGR, RMAX, RNWK, EOKU, RPD, $RVLV, RYN, SBRA, SMSI, SUM, T$NDM, TPC, TTGT, TVTY, TWNK, TWO, TXG, $UBER, UHAL, VVV, VZIO, WDC, WU, YELL Other Key Events: Jefferies Industrials Conference (virtual), 8/3-8/4 Piper Wealth Management Forum (virtual), 8/3-8/6 Macro Up/Down Last Nymex -0.34 70.22 Brent -0.18 72.23 Gold 3.30 1,813.75 EUR/USD -0.0008 1.1856 JPY/USD 0.13 109.17 10-Year Note +0.008 1.182% Sector News Breakdown Consumer Caesar’s Entertainment ($CZR) Q2 EPS $0.34 vs. est. loss (-$0.26); Q2 revs $2.5B vs. est. $2.27B; Q2 same-store Adjusted EBITDA was $1B versus (-$131M) for the comparable prior-year period; Company posted all-time records in quarterly Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin. Denny’s ($DENN) Q2 adj EPS $0.18 vs. est. $0.11; Q2 revs $106.2M vs. est. $98.1M; Q2 domestic system-wide same-store sales decreased 1.2% compared to the equivalent fiscal period in 2019, including a 1.5% decrease at domestic franchised restaurants and a 1.9% increase at company restaurants. Herbalife ($HLF) Q2 adj EPS $1.52 vs. est. $1.29; Q2 revs $1.55B vs. est. $1.57B; Q2 adjusted EBITDA of $262.1M; raises FY21 EPS view to $4.70-$5.10 from $4.65-$5.05 (est. $4.93); sees FY net sales growth to be in a range of 8.5% to 12.5%, lowering the midpoint by 150 basis points compared to prior full year 2021 guidance. Host Hotels ($HST) Q2 adj FFO $0.12 vs. est. $0.04; Q2 revs $649M vs. est. $606.58M; said RevPAR reached nearly $100 for the quarter, which dramatically outperformed consensus RevPAR, with average room rates only 8.4% below our 2019 second quarter rates; not providing year guidance Hyatt ($H) 2Q adj EPS ($1.15) vs est. ($0.85) on comparable system-wide REVPAR $72.47, qtrly total revs $663Mm vs est. $686.9Mm; guides FY net rooms growth more than +6%, sees FY adj SG&A about $240Mm, sees FY CAPEX about $110Mm Energy Devon Energy ($DVN) Q2 adj EPS $0.60 vs est. $0.52 on revs $2.42B vs est. $2.35B, operating cash flow $1.1B, production for the quarter averaged 291k barrels/day; will pay total dividend of 49c/shr (11c fixed + 38c variable), a 44% increase from Q1; sees 3q production 566-594 mboe/d vs est. 564.80 mboe/d Occidental Petroleum ($OXY) Q2 adj EPS 32c vs est. 1c on revs $5.96B vs est. $5.92B, FCF $2B, cash flow from continuing operations $3.3B; said oil and gas results improved from Q1 due to higher commodity prices and sales volumes; executed debt tender offer and repaid over $3B of long-term debt in July ONEOK ($OKE) Q2 EPS $0.77 vs. est. $0.75; Q2 revs $3.39B vs. est. $3.03B; sees 2021 net income, adj earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization to be above midpoints of ranges provided on April 27, 2021 SunPower ($SPWR) Q2 adj EPS $0.06 vs. est. $0.04; Q2 revs $308.9M vs. est. $327.31M; guides Q3 revs $325M-$375M vs. est. $400.83M; sees Q3 GAAP net loss of $10 to $0 million and MW recognized of 125 MW to 150 MW; Q2 added 13,000 residential customers – residential bookings up 16 percent sequentially, 67 percent year-over-year (YoY) The American Petroleum Institute ($API) showed a draw of 879K barrels of oil for the latest week; gasoline inventories show a draw of 5.75M barrels, distillate inventories show a draw of 717K barrels and Cushing inventories show a build of 659K barrels W&T Offshore ($WTI) Q2 EPS $0.02 vs. est. $0.07; Q2 revs $132.8M vs. est. $122.38M; Q2 Production was 40,888 Boe/d or 3.7 MMBoe, an increase of 3% compared to 39,657 Boe/d in Q1 and down 3% versus 42,037 Boe/d in Q2 of 2020 Financials Assurant Inc. ($AIZ) Q2 operating EPS $2.99 vs. est. $2.45; Q2 revs $2.54B vs. est. $2.39B; continue to expect to grow eps, ex. catastrophes, by 10 to 14 percent for 2021 Fair Isaac ($FICO) Q3 non-GAAP EPS $3.38 vs. est. $2.76; Q3 revs $338M vs. est. $328.3M; Applications revenues, which include the company’s decision management applications and associated professional services, were $133.2 million in the third quarter, compared to $141.5 million in the prior year period, a decrease of 6% Genworth Financial ($GNW) Q2 adj EPS $0.38 vs. est. $0.22; Q2 revs $2.04B vs. est. $1.9B; planned IPO of Enact remains a key strategic objective for Genworth and is subject to market and other conditions, however because the company is in registration and subject to applicable publicity restrictions, is unable to comment further or provide any additional detail at this time. Green Dot ($GDOT) Q2 adj EPS $0.68 vs est. $0.43 on revs $369.4M vs est. $313.2M; sees FY21 adj EPS $2.13-$2.27 vs prev. $2.06-$2.15, revs $1.33B-$1.35B vs est. $1.28B Prudential ($PRU) Q2 adj EPS $3.79 vs. est. $3.02; qtrly book value per common share of $160.31 versus $165.53 per share for year-ago; qtrly adjusted book value per common share of $104.39 versus $92.07 per share for year-ago; qtr end assets under management of $1.730 trillion versus $1.605 trillion for year-ago; now expect to return a total of $11.0B to holders from $10.5B prior Tanger Outlets ($SKT) 2Q core FFO/shr $0.43 vs est. $0.28, portfolio occupancy was 93% on June 30 vs 91.7% on March 31, avg tenant sales productivity was $424/sq ft for 12 months ended June 30 +7.3% yr/yr; guides FY FFO/shr $1.52-1.59 vs est. $1.46 Unum Group (UNM) Q2 adj EPS $1.39 vs. est. $1.11; Q2 revs $2.99B vs. est. $2.96B; Full-year 2021 outlook increased; after-tax adjusted operating income per share now expected to decline 1%-3% relative to full-year 2020, compared to an expected decline of 5%-6% prior Verisk Analytics ($VRSK) Q2 adj EPS $1.17 vs. est. $1.33; Q2 revs $747.5M vs. est. $737.3M; Net cash provided by operating activities was $233.2 million, down 6.5% for the second quarter of 2021. Free cash flow, a non-GAAP measure, was $170.7 million, down 11.5% Healthcare Change Healthcare ($CHNG) shares fell over 7% on a report that the U.S. Dept. of Justice is considering a lawsuit to block the company’s $8B sale to UnitedHealth ($UNH) https://bit.ly/3yA4Etu Option Care Health ($OPCH) 18M share Spot Secondary priced at $20.25 Amgen Inc. ($AMGN) Q2 adj EPS $4.38 vs. est. $4.06; Q2 revs $6.5B vs. est. $6.43B; backs FY21 adj EPS view $16.00-$17.00 vs. est. $16.34; backs FY21 revenue view $25.8B-$26.6B vs. est. $26.04B Amid surge in new COVID-19 infections across U.S., the FDA plans to give full approval to Pfizer (PFE) – BioNTech (BNTX) coronavirus vaccine by the start of the next month, The New York Times reports The FDA classified the recent recall of some of Philips’ (PHG) ventilators as Class 1, or the most serious type of recall, saying the use of these devices may cause serious injuries or death – Reuters CVS Health ($CVS) Q2 adj EPS $2.42 vs. est. $2.06; Q2 revs $72.62B vs. est. $70.11B; raises FY21 adjusted EPS view to $7.70-$7.80 from $7.56-$7.68 (est. $7.66); sees FY21 cash flow from operations $12.5B-$13B DaVita Inc. (DVA) 2Q EPS $2.64 vs est. $2.17; says total US dialysis treatments for 2Q were 7,413497 (avg 95,045/day); guides FY adj EPS $8.80-9.40 vs est. $8.63, sees FY adj op income $1.8-1.875B vs est. $1.816B Inspire Medical ($INSP) 2Q EPS ($0.48) vs est. ($0.64) on revs $53Mm vs est. $43.9Mm; guides FY revs $210-213Mm vs est. $195.9Mm, sees FY gr mgn 85-86%, sees opening 48-52 new US medical centers per qtr for 2H Jazz Pharma ($JAZZ) Q2 adj EPS $3.90 vs. est. $3.42; Q2 revs $751.8M vs. est. $735.62M; reaffirms FY21 non-GAAP EPS view $13.40-$14.70 (est. $14.45) and also back FY21 revenue view $3.020B-$3.180B vs. est. $3.11B; as of June 30, cash, cash equivalents were $891.4 mln, and outstanding principal balance of co’s long-term debt was $7.1 bln

Futures tried to bounce on the less than stellar ADP private jobs added of 330K for June

US stock futures all in the red now, techs with relative strength but gave up the overnight gain. Small caps relative weakness to start the morning. Gold and silver are higher, crude lower back below $70 once again with inventory data 10:30 this morning. Dollar and treasuries are pretty flat. ADP monthly employment data comes out at 8:15am as a preview to Fridays numbers. Should be plenty to work with today. Trade well.