$AVAV

Upgrades 4/22: $AAL $AZEK $BXP $DOW $KR $MIST $NWG $PCTY $SIVB $UAL . Downgrades 4/22: $AA $AVAV $CNI $FMAO $HA $HTGC $JBLU $MPW $NWG $PSN $SASR $SON $UEC $UNP

RECAP 12/7 Chatter: $BA + Order $JWN + Spin-ff online $CMCSA - Lower guide $AVAV - Cuts Guidance $ROKU - Lose Youtube? $GSAT + $AAPL Satellite communications $AYTU + Orphan Drug $AEO - No Spin-offs

avav 50% retracement gap fill too. amba better play tho for sure

Thursday, September 9, 2021 Following a day of weakness, U.S. stock futures are again looking modestly lower, pulling back along with declines in both Europe and Asia as the spread of the delta strain of Covid-19 continues to weigh on the U.S. economy. This morning, two airlines noted impact to revenues due to a decline in travel. Tech stocks in China fell after regulators again increased pressure on gaming companies for focusing solely on profit. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declines -173 points to hold just above 30K, the Shanghai Index rose 17 points to 3,693 and the Hang Seng Index dropped over -600 points (2.3%) to settle at 25,716. In Europe, the German DAX is down about -40points to 15,570, while the FTSE 100 tumbles over -80 points (1.2%) to hold around the 7,000 level. Yesterday, Europe’s Stoxx 600 was down 1.0%, marks worst day in nearly 3 weeks as the German Dax down 1.4%, marks worst day since mid-July. Later this morning, we get the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision at 7:45 AM and press conference at 8:30 AM where investors will look for clues about inflation and or asset tapering. The S&P 500 Index was lower for a third straight session Wednesday amid increasing concerns about economic growth and the ongoing spread of Covid. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report showed that economic growth downshifted slightly to a moderate pace from early July through August, largely due to a pullback in dining out, travel and tourism because of consumers’ safety fears. The dollar pared earlier gains, while Treasuries recovered Tuesday’s losses. Market Closing Prices Yesterday · The S&P 500 Index slipped -5.96 points, or 0.13%, to 4,514.07 · The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -68.93 points, or 0.20%, to 35,031.07 · The Nasdaq Composite dropped -87.69 points, or 0.57%, to 15,286.64 · The Russell 2000 Index declined -25.88 points, or 1.14% to 2,249.73 Events Calendar for Today · 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims · 8:30 AM EST Continuing Claims · 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data · 11:00 AM ET Weekly DOE Inventory Data Earnings Calendar: · Earnings Before the Open: ASO, HOFT, HOV, JILL, LOVE, TUESQ · Earnings After the Close: AFRM, AMRK, AOUT, COOK, CXM, FARM, KLXE, LAKE, PLAY, PWSC, SUMO, VRNT, ZS, ZUMZ Other Key Events: · Barclay’s Global Consumer Staples Conference (virtual) 2021, 9/8-9/10 · Barclay’s CEO Energy-Power Conference 2021 (virtual), 9/8-9/10 · BTIG Cloud Communications and Collaboration Investor Forum (virtual), 9/8 · Citigroup Annual BioPharma Conference (virtual), 9/8-9/10 · Citigroup GEMS Conference 2021 (virtual), 9/8-9/10 · Cowen 14th Annual Global Transportation & Sustainable Mobility Conference, 9/8-9/10 · Credit Suisse 2021 Global Steel & Mining Conference (virtual), 9/8-9/10 · Stephens Building Materials Investor Trip, 9/8-9/9 · Wolfe Inaugural TMT Conference, 9/8-9/9 · Barrington Annual Fall Investment Conference (virtual), 9/9 · DA Davidson Annual Software & Internet Conference (virtual), 9/9 · Deutsche Bank 2021 Technology Conference (virtual), 9/9-9/10 · Goldman Sachs 11th Annual Financial Technology Conference (virtual), 9/9 · Needham 1st Annual Needham Crypto Conference (virtual), 9/9 · Wells Fargo 2021 Healthcare Conference (virtual), 9/9-9/10 Sector News Breakdown Consumer · Lululemon ($LULU) shares rise 10%; 2Q adj EPS $1.65 vs est. $1.19 on revs $1.5B vs est. $1.33B; guides 3Q adj EPS $1.33-1.38 vs est. $1.32, sees 3Q revs $1.4-1.43B vs est. $1.32B; guides FY adj EPS $7.38-7.48 vs est. $6.91; raises year revs to range of $6.19B-$6.26B, compared with its prior range of $5.83B-$5.91B · RH Corp. ($RH) 2Q adj EPS $8.48 vs est. $6.48 on revs $989Mm vs est. $975.5Mm; guides FY revs +31-33% up from prior 25%-30% view and vs est. +29.2% and op margin 24.9-25.5% , sees ROIC 70% vs prior 60%; says currently expecting manufacturing to restart in Vietnam in October with full capacity by end of year · Boston Beer Company Inc ($SAM) shares fell -8%; said since last guidance update market for hard seltzer products has continued to experience decelerating growth trends; believe there will be continuing uncertainty about hard seltzer demand trends for remainder of 2021; said it is withdrawing its 2021 financial guidance issued on July 22, 2021 as EPS will fall below previously-reported estimate of between $18.00-$22.00 · Caesars ($CZR) announced an agreement to sell the non-US assets of William Hill to 888 Holdings for approximately GBP 2.2B · Copart (C$PRT) Q4 non-GAAP EPS $1.03 vs. est. $0.91; Q4 revs $748.6M vs. est. $690.87M · VICI Properties ($VICI) announces offering of 100M shares of common stock · GameStop ($GME) Q2 EPS loss (-$0.76) vs. est. loss (-$0.67); Q2 revs $1.183B vs. est. $1.12B; Ended the period with cash and restricted cash of $1.78B · Calavo Growers ($CVGW) 3Q adj EPS ($0.17) vs est. ($0.05) on revs $285Mm vs est. $281.7Mm · Limoneira ($LMNR) Q3 adj EPS $0.20 vs. est. $0.18; Q3 revs $49.1M vs. est. $48.8M; Agribusiness revenue Q3 includes $24.4M in fresh lemon sales, compared to $35.4M of fresh lemon sales during the same period of fiscal year 2020; approximately 1,144,000 cartons of fresh lemons were sold in aggregate · Torrid ($CURV) 2Q adj EPS $0.36 vs est. $0.16 on sales $332.9Mm vs est. $294.7Mm; guides 3Q sales $305-315Mm vs est. $305.1Mm; guides FY sales $1.29-1.31B vs est. $1.3B Energy, Industrials and Materials · The American Petroleum Institute ($API) reports that crude inventories fell 2.88M barrels last week and gasoline inventories fell 6.41M barrels · United Airlines ($UAL) said it expects third-quarter capacity to fall at least 28% compared with the same period in 2019, as bookings take a hit due to the rise in COVID-19 cases fueled by the Delta variant. · Southwest Airlines ($LUV) said it sees October operating revenue down 20% to 30% vs 2019; expects q4 2021 capacity to increase about 60% YoY and to decrease about 5% vs. Q4 2019 · Sherwin-Williams ($SHW), Axalta Coating (AXTA), and PPG Industries (PPG) all downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup · ABM Industries ($ABM) Q3 revenue $1.54B vs. est. $1.51B; Q3 EPS from continuing operations $0.90 vs. est. $0.81; sees FY adj eps cont ops $3.45 to $3.55, vs. prior view $3.30 to $3.50 · AeroVironment ($AVAV) Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.17) vs. est. loss (-$0.24); Q1 revs $101M vs. est. $96.48M; backs FY22 adj EPS view $2.50-$2.70 (est. $2.64) and backs FY22 revenue view $560M-$580M (est. $569.34M) Financials · Digital Realty ($DLR) 6.25M share Spot Secondary priced at $160.50 · Riot Blockchain ($RIOT) produces 441 Bitcoins in August, down from the 444 BTC produced in July; on a Y/Y basis, its production increased 451% from 80 BTC in August 2020. Healthcare · Humanigen ($HGEN) plunges over 50% after U.S. FDA declines emergency use approval for COVID-19 drug; said the FDA declined to grant emergency use authorization for its drug, lenzilumab, to treat patients hospitalized with COVID-19 · ProQR Therapeutics ($PRQR) announces a global licensing and research collaboration with Eli Lilly (LLY) to discover new medicines for genetic disorders in the liver and nervous system, in a deal that could be worth over $1.25B · Avid Biosciences ($CDMO) Q1 EPS $0.10 vs. est. $0.04; Q1 revs $30.8M vs. est. $27.8M; · HealthEquity Corp. ($HQY) 2Q adj EPS $0.40 vs est. $0.36 on revs $189.1Mm vs est. $184.7Mm; guides FY adj EPS $1.45-1.50 vs est. $1.49, sees FY revs $755-765Mm vs est. $762.8Mm; says re: WageWorks have achieved approximately $70 million of the approximately $80 million in annualized ongoing net synergies we expect to achieve by the end of fiscal year 2022. · Cardiff Oncology ($CRDF) updated data from its Phase 1b/2 clinical trial for onvansertib in combination with standard-of-care (SOC) as second-line therapy in patients with KRAS-mutated metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC); said as of data cut off July 2, 2021, eight of 19 (42%) patients who received the recommended Phase 2 dose of onvansertib 15 mg/m2 and were evaluable for disease response achieved a partial response · Turning Point Therapeutics ($TPTX) announces early clinical data for Repotrectinib in NTRK fusion-positive advanced solid tumors selected for late-breaker plenary presentation at 2021 AACR-NCI-EORTC conference · Beauty Health ($SKIN) announces $400M convertible senior notes offering Technology, Media & Telecom · Cisco ($CSCO) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley · NetEase ($NTES) and Tencent (TCEHY) tumble again as China’s focus on reining in the power of tech companies hasn’t abated. A report in the South China Morning Post notes that the government will halt approvals for new online games. · Sea Limited ($SE) is looking to sell 11 million ADRs with the option to offer 1.65 million more as part of a so-called green shoe option; it is also raising $2.5 billion in a convertible bond that has a $375 million green shoe attached · SentinelOne ($S) Q2 revenue $45.8M vs. est. $40.4M; Q2 ARR up 127% YoY; total customer count grew more than 75% year-over-year to over 5,400 customers as of July 31; Customers with ARR over $100K grew 140% year-over-year to over 345 as of July 31, 2021; guides year revs $188M-$190M vs. est. $176.4M

Wednesday, September 8, 2021 Futures Up/Down % Last Dow -36.00 0.10% 35,055 S&P 500 -3.25 0.08% 4,515 Nasdaq -13.50 0.09% 15,661 U.S. stocks are pointing to a slightly lower open just a day after finishing mixed as the Nasdaq Composite registered a record closing high for fourth consecutive session with Apple (AAPL) and Netflix (NFLX) touching all-time highs. This morning, the dollar is indicated higher while Treasury yields slip ahead of a $38 billion 10-year auction of new notes later this morning. Bitcoin prices extended declines Wednesday, following on from the cryptocurrency’s worst day in three months, as markets continue to digest the impact of El Salvador’s move to declare it as legal tender. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 265 points to 30,181, the Shanghai Index was little changed at 3,675 and the Hang Seng Index dipped -32 points to 26,320. In Europe, the German DAX is down over -135 points to hold just above 15,700, while the FTSE 100 is down about -40 points to 7,110. There were a handful of M&A deals announced overnight in various sectors in what is expected to be another light day of news on this holiday shortened week. The Delta variant, the China economy, slowing U.S. growth and jobs, travel impacts and the Fed remain prevalent themes heading into the Fall. Market Closing Prices Yesterday The S&P 500 Index dropped -15.40 points, or 0.34%, to 4,520.03 The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -269.09 points, or 0.76%, to 35,100.00 The Nasdaq Composite edged higher 10.81 points, or 0.07%, to 15,374.33 The Russell 2000 Index declined -16.44 points, or 0.72% to 2,275.61 Events Calendar for Today 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data 10:00 AM ET JOLTS Job Openings for July 3:00 PM ET Consumer Credit for July Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: KFY, REVG Earnings After the Close: ABM, AVAV, BASE, CDMO, CPRT, CVGW, GME, HQY, INTA, MIND, RH, S, STRM Other Key Events: Barclay’s Global Consumer Staples Conference (virtual) 2021, 9/8-9/10 Barclay’s CEO Energy-Power Conference 2021 (virtual), 9/8-9/10 BTIG Cloud Communications and Collaboration Investor Forum (virtual), 9/8 Citigroup Annual BioPharma Conference (virtual), 9/8-9/10 Citigroup GEMS Conference 2021 (virtual), 9/8-9/10 Cowen 14th Annual Global Transportation & Sustainable Mobility Conference, 9/8-9/10 Credit Suisse 2021 Global Steel & Mining Conference (virtual), 9/8-9/10 Stephens Building Materials Investor Trip, 9/8-9/9 Wolfe Inaugural TMT Conference, 9/8-9/9 China CPI, PPI for August Macro Up/Down Last Nymex 0.98 69.34 Brent 0.87 72.56 Gold 3.60 1,798.00 EUR/USD -0.0021 1.1819 JPY/USD -0.07 110.21 10-Year Note -0.02 1.351% World News Japan Q2 GDP beat at +0.5% q/q vs 0.4% consensus; Japan Q2 GDP Annualized beat: 1.9% q/q vs 1.6% consensus and Japan July Current Account smaller surplus: JPY +1.91b vs JPY +2.30b cons Sector News Breakdown Consumer Coty ($COTY) 50M share secondary Block Trade priced at $8.53 Nio ($NIO) announces at-the-market offering of $2B of American depositary shares Casey’s General Stores ($CASY) Q1 EPS $3.19 vs. est. $2.96; Q1 revs $3.18B vs. est. $3.02B; said Q1 fuel gallons sold increased by 24.7% compared to FQ4 2021 ended April 30, 2021, while fuel margin increased 2.1¢ sequentially to 35.1¢ per gallon. That number is still below last year’s comparable quarter mark of 38.2¢ per gallon. Energy, Industrials and Materials Cheniere Energy ($LNG) declares an inaugural quarterly dividend of $0.33 per share, or $1.32 per share annualized; plans for about $1 bln of annual debt repayment, targeting investment grade consolidated credit metrics by the early-to-mid 2020s Chevron ($CVX), Delta ($DAL), and Google ($GOOGL) announced a memorandum of understanding to track sustainable aviation fuel test batch emissions data using cloud-based technology. Murphy Oil ($MUR) sees capital expenditure $685M-$715M, vs. est. $722.1M Financials Vertiv Holdings LLC ($VRT) to buy E&I Engineering Ireland Ltd., and its affiliate Powerbar Gulf LLC, in a deal valued at up to $2 billion. Separately, Vertiv cut its financial outlook, as worse-than-expected supply chain challenges are offsetting continued “robust” demand. https://on.mktw.net/38RtNEQ Coinbase Global Inc. ($COIN) said the SEC intends to sue it in court if it launches a planned program letting users earn interest on lending cryptocurrency; COIN said the SEC handed it a Wells notice in relation to its Coinbase Lend program, signaling its intention to sue the company in court. As a result, Coinbase said it won’t launch Lend until at least October. PayPal Holdings Inc. ($PYPL) agreed to buy Japanese “buy now, pay later” startup Paidy Inc. for about $2.7 billion, in a move that will boost its business in the world’s third-largest e-commerce market. https://on.mktw.net/3ncZkd1 MeridianLink Inc. ($MLNK) Q2 revs rose 38% to $68.5M vs. est. $67.4M; sees Q3 revs $62.9M-$63.5M vs. est. $62.2M; sees year revs $256.7M-$257.9M vs. est. $255.4M; sees FY adj Ebitda $112.3M-$113.5M Apollo Global ($APO) announced that clients managed by its affiliates have entered into a definitive agreement to acquire up to a 50% equity stake in MaxCap Group, a Australasian commercial real estate financier and fund manager Healthcare Sanofi SA ($SNY) entered into a definitive agreement to acquire U.S.-based biopharmaceutical company Kadmon Holdings Inc. ($KDMN) as Kadmon common stock will receive $9.50 a share in cash, representing a total equity value of about $1.9 billion on a fully diluted basis. https://on.mktw.net/3haEIOs Option Care Health ($OPCH)2M share Spot Secondary priced at $26.90 ICU Medical, Inc. ($ICUI) to acquire Smiths Medical division from Smiths Group plc for $2.35 billion in cash and stock plus the assumption of certain liabilities and a stock price performance-based earn-out India Globalization Capital ($IGC) announces the completion of its Phase 1 clinical trial on IGC’s cannabis-based investigational new drug, IGC-AD1, for patients suffering from Alzheimer’s disease Impel NeuroPharma ($IMPL) files to sell 3M shares of common stock Maravai ($MRVI) announces offering of 20M shares of Class A common stock for holders Ortho Clinical Diagnostics ($OCDX) files to sell 22M shares for holders Technology, Media & Telecom Elliott Management Corp. has a more than $1 billion stake in Citrix Systems Inc. ($CTXS) and wants the software company to take action to boost its lagging stock price, according to people familiar with the matter – WSJ https://on.wsj.com/3yOaCGN Analog Devices ($ADI) raises Q4 adjusted EPS view to $1.69 plus/minus 9c from $1.33 plus/minus 11c (est. $1.65) and raises Q4 revenue view to $2.3B plus/minus $70M from $1.78B plus/minus $70M (vs. est. $2.26B); to repurchase up to $2.5B of common stock Bumble ($BMBL) files to sell 15M shares of Class A common stock for holders Coupa Software ($COUP) 2Q adj EPS $0.26 vs est. ($0.06) on revs $179Mm vs est. $163Mm; guides 3Q adj EPS $0.01-0.03 vs est. ($0.08), sees 3Q revs $177-178Mm vs est. $168.8Mm; guides FY adj EPS $0.27-0.29 vs est. ($0.15), sees FY revs $706-708Mm vs est. $687.2Mm Smartsheet ($SMAR) 2Q adj EPS ($0.05) vs est. ($0.13) on sales $131.7Mm vs est. $125.5Mm; guides 3Q adj EPS loss $0.10-0.12 vs est. loss $0.11, sees 3Q revs $138-139Mm vs est. $129.9Mm; guides FY adj EPS loss $0.36-0.44 vs est. EPS loss $0.39, sees FY revs $530-533Mm vs est. $514.1Mm UiPath ($PATH) raises FY22 ARR view to $876M-$881M from $850M-$855M; 2Q ARR $726.5Mm +60%, revs $195.5Mm vs est. $184.3Mm, adj gr margin 86%, adj FCF ($3.5Mm); guides 3Q revs $207-209Mm

Some implied moves for #earnings next week(1of2): DOCU 11.1% $ULTA 8.0% $ZUO 16.5% $DOMO 20.0% $STNE 9.7% $LOCO 12.3% $XONE 26.7% $MDB 10.7% $ORCL 5.1% $AMC 19.4% $JD 7.9% $PRTY 18.1% $GOGO 10.1% $HRB 8.8% $AVAV 12.8% $CPB 5.1% $VRA 18.5% $TUP 18.9%

$AVAV is already above the key pivot, around 61.25

perhaps some riskier spots but potentially lucrative are $CIEN and $AVAV