152.81 - 156.05
92.55 - 161.21
Echofin Members Consensus
CB members out in force this afternoon. Powell is up at 1.00 pm - interesting he is speaking on digital currencies. In all the election news, Brexit, virus, and stimulus this topic has not really been given much prominence so unless he says something controversial not sure he will have much impact. Lagarde is up 45 min later at a conference about monetary policy although she has learnt her lesson about 'misspeaking' which is probably why FF only classifies her appearance on the calendar as medium impact (orange).
We have plenty of news releases this week but the main event is the virtual Jackson Hole Central Bank summit. Powell kicks off the event on Thursday with contributions from other CB governors. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-powell/fed-chair-powell-to-speak-on-feds-framework-review-next-thursday-idUKKBN25G2GP
There is a lot of economic data to get through this week, notably some Q2 GDP second estimates for the US among others. On Tuesday we are looking at the US CB consumer confidence report. Wednesday sees the weekly crude oil inventories report as well as US durable goods orders and Australian construction activity. On Thursday the US weekly initial jobless claims number gets released, after last week’s disappointing print of 1.1m. Look also at the pending home sales and preliminary (second estimate) GDP numbers.
**AUD/USD More Buying Expected If It Breaks 0.7200 ** DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS | 30 July 2020 AUD/USD More Buying Expected If It Breaks 0.7200 Today's Key Highlights: AUD/USD remained in a positive zone above the 0.7080 pivot level. A key bullish trend line is forming with support near 0.7100 on the 4-hours chart. The US Consumer Confidence (CB) declined from 98.3 to 92.6 in July 2020. The Fed Interest Rate Decision is scheduled today (forecast co change from 0.25%).
**GBP/USD Hit New 4-Month High Above 1.2900** 28 July 2020 GBP/USD Hit New 4-Month High Above 1.2900 Today's Key Highlights • GBP/USD climbed higher above the 1.2800 and 1.2850 resistance levels. • A crucial bullish trend line is forming with support near 1.2720 on the 4-hours chart. • Gold price extended its rally and traded to a new all-time high above $1,980. • The US Consumer Confidence (CB) could decline from 98.1 to 94.5 in July 2020.
26 Feb 2020 AUD/USD Remains At Risk of More Downsides .Today's Key Highlights • AUD/USD declined heavily and broke the 0.6660 support area. • A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 0.6690 on the 4-hours chart. • The US CB Consumer Confidence rose from 130.4 to 130.7 in Feb 2020. • The US New Home Sales could increase 3.5% in Jan 2020 (MoM).
**USD: are American consumers confident enough?** These days don’t seem too eventful in terms of planned economic meetings or announcements on the global scale. That’s good: it gives us time to look at many other indicators, apart from the usual labor statistics, inflation, and interest rates. One of these is consumer confidence. Although it does not move the currency prices as intensely as the primary indicators do, it may still have its effect if it significantly deviates from expected levels. CB Consumer Confidence index is a summary of a questionnaire done with 5000 households. They inform on the economic outlook, current conditions, spending, and business environment. If the indicator overshoots the forecast, it supports the national currency. Hence, we are yet to see how confident the US consumers are about their country’s economy. **If CB Consumer Confidence index outperforms the forecasts, the USD will gain;** **If CB Consumer Confidence index underperforms, the USD will drop.**
25 Feb 2020 GBP/USD Unable to Break 1.3000 Selling Pressure again Today's Key Highlights • GBP/USD started an upside correction from the 1.2850 support area. • A key bearish trend line is forming with resistance near 1.3000 on the 4-hours chart. • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) increased from -0.51 to -0.25 in Jan 2020. • The US CB Consumer Confidence could increase from 131.6 to 132.0 in Feb 2020.
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