$CTAS

By Senad Karaahmetovic The U.S. stocks fell modestly last week with the S&P 500 (SPX) closing the week 0.28% lower - the first time it recorded two consecutive weekly red candles since December. The index is essentially flat month-to-date (MTD), which is quite positive for bulls as the January rally is still holding in. Looking at valuation, the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.0, below the 5-year average of 18.5% but above the 10-year average of 17.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) has continued to hover around 34000, ending the week 0.13% lower. Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) was the only major U.S. index to close in green last week after dropping 2.4% a week earlier. Looking ahead, this week's key economic data releases include the Q4 GDP second release on Thursday while investors will also watch closely the core PCE inflation and the University of Michigan reports on Friday. Earlier in the week, the minutes from the January FOMC meeting will be released (Wednesday) while several Fed speakers are due to speak this week, including Jefferson, Waller, Williams, Bostic, Daly, Mester, Bullard, and Collins. Q4 earnings session so far As of Friday, February 17, 82% of S&P 500 companies have reported results for Q4 2022. According to FactSet's data, 68% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 65% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. As far as closely watched guidance is concerned, 65 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 20 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. For this week, Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) have already reported earnings with both trading lower, thanks to the weaker-than-expected guidance for the full year. Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) are due to report on Tuesday, while Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) are reporting on Wednesday after the market close. Finally, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and Booking (NASDAQ:BKNG) are due to report on Thursday. What are analysts saying? Here's what analysts have to say about the upcoming trading week. Goldman Sachs analysts: "Our risk appetite indicator (GSRAII), sentiment surveys and CTAs equity positioning registered the largest bullish turn (from very bearish levels). We think the speed of the rebound lowers the bar for a negative sentiment shock from here if macro data disappoint." Morgan Stanley analysts: "With the Equity Risk Premium at its lowest level since 2007, the risk-reward for stocks is extremely poor, particularly with a Fed that is likely far from done, and earnings expectations that are 10-20% too high. It's time to head back to base camp before the next guide down in earnings." Citi analysts: "Last year's losing trades have started 2023 very strongly. Global equities, especially tech stocks, are up. Oil and defensive stocks have lagged. However, markets often change leadership into the new year, only to revert back to the previous themes later on. We suspect 2023 will follow this well-worn pattern." UBS analysts: "We still expect a hard landing… We added a May rate hike to the projection, and point to the risks that the FOMC raises rates by an additional 25 bps at their June meeting too. But higher rates do not make us more bullish on the economic outlook." Credit Suisse analysts: "The bulls have been playing two key datapoints (global PMIs rising and core CPI falling), and thus the negative catalyst will come when either stops. Wages and service sector inflation (ex shelter) are correctly seen as the key to overall inflation, and we think both are stickier than the market currently perceives." Vital Knowledge analysts: "The current phase of unhelpful economic data may persist for a bit longer (including the Jan PCE on Friday 2/24) and the SPX's valuation still isn't appealing, but these are ephemeral stumbling blocks, which is why dips (down to 4000-4050) should be bought. Disinflation is likely to resume, central banks (including the Fed) are nearing the finish line, and earnings/growth are resilient." JPMorgan analysts: "With equities trading near last summer’s highs and at above-average multiples, despite weakening earnings and the recent sharp move higher in interest rates, we maintain that markets are overpricing recent good news on inflation and are complacent of risks. Equity markets appeared to read this month's central bank meetings as dovish, while dismissing the weak Q4 earnings and the implications of the strong US payroll report for both monetary policy and corporate margins. We see the equity risk/reward as skewed to the downside, as upside potential for markets is likely fairly limited given stretched valuations and high rates, while downside could be meaningful, e.g. in case of a further weakening of activity, persisting inflation, higher terminal rates, or a resurgence of geopolitical risk."

yeah I've found them to be pretty useful. they’re naturally not a guarantee of anything but when sell/buy levels get triggered, there's a lot of money controlled by the CTAs

enough strength the past two days to keep the CTAs from having to follow the moc > @lucullus said: a weak close for 3 bill to buy

CTAs continue to cut their exposures and are now the most net short US equities since the GFC, i.e. even below levels we saw in Mar-2020, Dec-2018 or in Jan-2016 (JPM PI)

That kind of rVol is what forces selling from systematic funds and CTAs

ol cintas > @dros said: 188 $CTAS MAY2022 $500 Cs trade 13.6

188 $CTAS MAY2022 $500 Cs trade 13.6

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ctas-are-now-100-short-us-treasuries-nomura-warns-gamma-unclench-weeks-opex

CTAs, meanwhile, likely added somewhere close to $50 billion of exposure across global equities over the same period, as signals flipped back to ‘long.’

Wednesday, September 29, 2021 Futures Up/Down % Last Dow 191.00 0.56% 34,366 S&P 500 30.25 0.69% 4,373 Nasdaq 134.50 0.91% 14,899 U.S. stock futures are looking higher, bouncing after the S&P posted its worst drop in months, as Treasury yields ease back below 1.5% for the 10-year and markets remain hopeful that negotiations tied to the debt ceiling and the infrastructure take a turn for the better. The S&P 500 500 suffered the biggest one-day percentage drop since May 12 and the Nasdaq Composite closes with biggest one-day percentage drop since March 18 as all three major U.S. stock indexes slid nearly 2% or more, with interest rate sensitive tech and tech-adjacent stocks weighing heaviest as investors lost their risk appetite. Rising Treasury yields and deepening inflation concerns dampened risk appetite particularly pressuring growth stocks, along with rising fears of Fed asset tapering shortly and the drama in D.C. regarding the debt ceiling deadline and upcoming infrastructure bill vote later this week. Tech getting a bounce after semiconductor ASML raised guidance overnight, while MU slips after guiding next quarter results below analyst views. The 10-year yield at overnight lows, dropping below 1.5% (off highs of 1.56%), giving a boost to Nasdaq Futures up nearly 1%. European equities trade well, bouncing after Tuesday’s sell-off so far as the Stoxx 600 adds as much as 1.1% (after falling 2% Tuesday). The Nikkei Index tumbled -639 points (2.12%) to 29,544, the Shanghai Index fell -65 points (1.83%) to 3,536 and the Hang Seng Index gained 163 points to 24,663. In Europe, the German DAX is up 165 points to 15,410, while the FTSE 100 rises 60 points to 7,090. All eyes remain on Washington with a vote on the infrastructure packing set for tomorrow, that holds the fate of the debt ceiling in it as well (for now). Market Closing Prices Yesterday The S&P 500 Index plunged -90.48 points, or 2.04%, to 4,352.63 The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -569.38 points, or 1.63%, to 34,299.99 The Nasdaq Composite sunk -423.29 points, or 2.83%, to 14,546.68 The Russell 2000 Index declined -51.23 points, or 2.25% to 2,229.78 Events Calendar for Today 7:00 AM ET MBA Mortgage Applications Data 10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales MoM for Aug 10:30 AM ET Weekly DOE Inventory Data Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: CTAS, EPAC, JBL, WOR Earnings After the Close: LNDC, MLHR Other Key Events: China Caixin PMI Sept-Final China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI for Sept BTIG Inaugural Cannabis Conference (virtual), 9/29 Cantor Global Healthcare Conference (virtual), 9/27-9/30 North American Spine Society Annual Meeting, in Boston 9/29-10/2 Wolfe Utilities & Midstream Conference 2021, 9/28-9/31 Macro Up/Down Last Nymex -0.50 74.79 Brent -0.51 78.58 Gold 10.50 1,744.50 EUR/USD -0.0021 1.1662 JPY/USD -0.17 111.33 10-Year Note -0.037 1.499% World News S. Senate Republicans for a second day in a row blocked a bid by President Joe Biden’s Democrats to head off a potentially crippling U.S. credit default, as partisan tensions rattled an economy recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. North Korea claims that it tested a newly developed hypersonic missile on Tuesday Germany Aug Import Prices rise +1.4% m/m vs 1.2% consensus; +16.5% y/y vs +16.1% consensus Spain Sep CPI YoY rises +4.0% vs 3.5% consensus and MoM +0.8% vs 0.4% consensus Sector News Breakdown Consumer Cal-Maine ($CALM) Q1 EPS loss (-$0.37) vs. est. loss (-$0.62); Q1 revs $331.7M vs. est. $313.43M; said results were affected by lower conventional egg sale volumes that partially offset a higher average conventional egg selling price; shell egg average selling price increased to $1.24 per dozen in Q1 from $1.08 per dozen YoY; said will not pay a dividend in Q1; 1Q gross margins reflect higher production costs primarily related to a significant increase in feed costs Conagra Brands ($CAG) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse Lucid Group Inc ($LCID) rises after announcing plans to start delivering luxury electric sedans with a Tesla-beating driving range in late-October Energy, Industrials and Materials Sherwin Williams ($SHW) sees Q3 EPS $1.80-$1.90 with items below the consensus est. of $2.03 (includes 20c per share for acquisition-related amortization expense); narrows Q3 consolidated net sales guidance to be flat to down slightly compared to Q3 of FY20; sees FY21 EPS $7.21-$7.41 with items vs. est. $9.21 Vale ($VALE) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley The American Petroleum Institute (API) showed a surprise build of 4.12M barrels of oil for the week ending September 24, showed a build of 3.55M barrels, distillate inventories show a build of 2.48M barrels and Cushing inventories show a build of 359K barrels. Reuters reported the United States has reached out to China diplomatically about reducing its purchases of Iranian crude oil, U.S. and European officials said on Tuesday, as Washington seeks to persuade Tehran to resume talks about reviving the 2015 nuclear deal. EQT Corporation (EQT)93M share Spot Secondary priced at $20.00 Non-OPEC crude supply is expected to peak at 48 million barrels a day in 2025, before slipping to 39.3 million barrels a day by 2045, according to the head of OPEC’s energy studies department Financials China Evergrande said on Wednesday it plans to sell a 9.99 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) stake it owns in Shengjing Bank Co Ltd to a state-owned asset management company as it scrambles to raise funds. Healthcare The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is leaning toward authorizing half-dose booster shots of the Moderna Inc ($MRNA) COVID-19 vaccine, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Eli Lilly ($LLY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citi and raise tgt to $265 from $210 GeoVax ($GOVX) shares rise as enters license agreement with PNP Therapeutics to acquire the exclusive rights to develop and commercialize Gedeptin, a treatment of solid cancer tumors Pfizer ($PFE) is changing up the protocol for its Phase 3 gene therapy trial for Duchenne muscular dystrophy after three patients experienced severe side effects, including muscle weakness, following treatment. Two of the people also developed myocarditis after taking the drug – STAT news reported Technology, Media & Telecom Micron ($MU) shares fell -5%; Q4 EPS $2.42 vs. est. $2.33; Q4 revs $8.27B vs. est. $8.22B; sees Q1 revs $7.65B plus/minus $200M vs. est. $8.57B; sees Q1 EPS $2.00 plus/minus $0.10 vs. est. $2.56; says demand outlook for 2022 is strong ASML ($ASML) said it would have revenue growth of around 11% annually through 2030 amid booming demand for its products; the company estimated revenue would hit 24-30 billion euros ($28 billion-35 billion) in 2025 with gross margins up to 55%. That compares with the previous forecast of a 15–24-billion-euro range in the same year, at gross margins of at least 50%. Akamai Technologies Inc. ($AKAM) agreed to buy Guardicore, a provider of micro-segmentation technology that blocks the spread of malware within an enterprise, for about $600 million NXP Semiconductors ($NXPI) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein HP Inc. ($HPQ) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan and cut tgt to $30 from $35 Dell Technologies ($DELL), JD Group ($JD) and Dada Group ($DADA), announced that they will expand their partnership in promoting the digital transformation of physical stores, creating an omni-channel retail model and one-hour living circle, or services ecosystem, for digital products AMC Networks ($AMCX) said its longtime chief operating officer Ed Carroll has decided to step down, following an accomplished 34-year tenure with the company. He will remain with the company through the end of the year.

past 6 weeks have seen CTAs selling energy stocks so there's that possibly flipping as well

“The combination of the new low vol regime and strong equity returns has resulted in one of the best risk-adjusted performances for equities since WW2 in the past 6 months,” Goldman’s Christian Mueller-Glissmann said, in a new note, adding that “this has likely attracted increased positioning from systematic investors such as risk parity and vol target strategies and also CTAs, which have had relatively low equity allocations since the recovery from the COVID-19 bear market.”

$CTAS to 375/425

the idea is that thanks to the low starting point on the VIX, a nominally small spike could force inverse and levered VIX ETPs to panic buy VIX futs into said spike, thus exacerbating the situation and ultimately forcing CTAs, vol. control funds, and risk parity to deleverage into a falling market.

Ya estamos por debajo del Break even de los CTAs en NQ

sold ctas equity sold pins march calls 4.15 to 8 bought qtrx starter

Upgrades 2/16: $ADS $ALB $AR $BP $BL $CDAY $CEQP $CTAS $ENLC $ETN $FWRD $GT $MAT $MMYT $MPLX $PLAN $RRC $SQM $TEX $WISH $XOG

so darkpool update: buy spikes today in DXCM and some beat up tech names like BAND and WIX. Continued big buying in CTAS, gdrx still looks pretty strong. Solid improving buying in some of the favorites with good RS today like SNAP specifically and also CRWD and NET. Some selling into some of the value names (no longer buying in CVS). Semis not too hot in general but theres big buying AMAT and that chart is fire. Other random names with nice buying, HYG OXY ABEV GLD JPM MS GS PDD BILI NEM SFIX

Upgrades 1/6: $ACN $AMRS $ANET $AUY $AVNT $BRBR $CLDT $CLR $CNP $COF $COR $CRUS $CTAS $DIN $DXCM $EIX $EXC $FLT $FRPT $GOLD $HSY $IT $JBHT $KGC $MA $MEOH $MET $NOV $NSTG $PFGC $PPC $RGNX $RRGB $SNP $TU $VOD $WHD $WING $WPM $ZG

dp subbed up: nice buying in SHOP, CTAS, SPOT, DDOG, U, PAGS

$CTAS upgraded to $405

$CTAS thats a nice set up

$CTAS in the morning

"Cramer loves Cintas Corporation (NASDAQ: CTAS)." even cramer is hip

7/23 BMO EPS Winners: $T, $NUE, $DHR, $KMB, $GWW, $TSCO, $CTAS, $HSY, $POOL, $PNR, $CTXS

CTAS beat on top and bottom and guides Aug qtr EPS above consensus

https://heisenbergreport.com/2020/07/20/nomuras-mcelligott-systematic-strategies-helping-drive-rally-as-ctas-vol-control-mechanically-buy/

$CTAS doing nicely

CTAS seems really primed

CTAS CARR V etc

fookin love me some CTAS

also CTAS chart is great

$CTAS flagging @dros @matthewnitto