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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [June 05, 2023]: Crude Oil Rallies** JUNE 05, 2023 — MONDAY AM The ES, NQ, and YM are each trading around 25% of ADR heading into the RTH open. These narrow ranges follow Friday's major rallies, and could be mostly digestive early today ahead of economic data. Watch wMID in the ES, as a failure to close above this level this week could be very bearish. Crude Oil has gapped up and rallied after news of a supply cut coming out of Saudi Arabia, which opens the door to strength back toward 76-77, 80, and 84 above. Gold may continue downward, but needs to push through 1940 first.
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thanks, I think it's kind of a handy cap trying to get the trades out to you guys and then tweaking things as you go along, like raising the stop limit. Trading alone, I picked out TSLA and BA, put in all the info. TSLA fires and shoots up so I raise the stop. I have more flexibility. BA was just sitting there and so I attached a sell limit to the potential buy and went out the door to workout. I came back at 2 and BA bought and sold for $163 P/L while I was sweating at Snap Fitness. To be honest this may be the lowest risk system that I've used.
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Thanks, it's big to be able to pull the trigger, set all sell indicators, and out the door by 9:30 to 10.
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Trial deadline is May 31st for refunds. I wouldn't be surprised to see others leave as well. > @danbrey said: I caught up on my reading and it sounds like Chris Day Trade isn't doing very well. He was probably glad to see me go, good riddance. Don't let the door hit you in butt Dan. Seriously, I hope it works better for you guys.
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I caught up on my reading and it sounds like Chris Day Trade isn't doing very well. He was probably glad to see me go, good riddance. Don't let the door hit you in butt Dan. Seriously, I hope it works better for you guys.
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By Steve Holland WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Joe Biden and top lawmakers agreed on Tuesday to further talks aimed at breaking a deadlock over raising the $31.4 trillion U.S. debt limit, with just three weeks before the country may be forced into an unprecedented default. After about an hour of talks in the Oval Office, Biden, a Democrat, and House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy, a Republican, committed their aides to daily discussions about areas of possible agreement as a default looms as soon as June 1. Biden, McCarthy and the three other top congressional leaders were set to meet again on Friday. Biden called the talks "productive" and appeared to offer Republicans some possible compromises, including taking a "hard look" for the first time at clawing back unspent coronavirus relief funds to reduce government spending. But he repeated that Republicans must take the threat of default off the table. And he did not rule out eventually invoking the 14th amendment to the U.S. Constitution, an untested approach that would seek to declare the debt limit unconstitutional. Doing so would require litigation, he said, but is an option he may study in the future. "There's a lot of politics and posturing, and that's going to continue for a while," Biden said, but political leaders are "getting to work." "Everyone in the meeting understood the risk of default," Biden said. McCarthy emphasized a lack of progress after the meeting. "I didn't see any new movement," McCarthy told reporters, complaining that Biden didn't agree to talks until time was running out. "That's not a way to govern," he said. But he did say Biden indicated that he was open to discussing reforms to the permitting process for new energy projects as part of the talks. Economists warn that a lengthy default could send the American economy into a deep recession with soaring unemployment while destabilizing a global financial system built on U.S. bonds. Investors are bracing for impact. Biden is calling on lawmakers to raise the federal government's self-imposed borrowing limit without conditions. McCarthy, whose party has a slim majority in the House, has said his chamber will not approve any deal that doesn't dramatically cut spending to address a growing budget deficit and signaled that he doesn't see a short-term fix. Past debt ceiling fights have typically ended with a hastily arranged agreement in the final hours of negotiations, thus avoiding a default. In 2011, the scramble prompted a historic downgrade of the country's top-notch credit rating. Veterans of that battle warn the current situation is riskier because political divides have widened. Tuesday's meeting was the first between Biden and McCarthy since Feb 1. It was closely watched ahead of what is expected to be a fraught period in Washington with the approach of June, when the U.S. Treasury predicts the country could be forced to default on some debts. Earlier Tuesday, McCarthy appeared to close the door to a short-term solution that's been widely discussed on Capitol Hill: lifting the debt ceiling through September to allow more time for agreement. Biden specifically said after the meeting that he was not ruling out such a short-term arrangement. INVESTORS WATCH CLOSELY Neil Bradley, top policy official at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the nation's largest business association, said it was positive that the two sides would continue meeting. "But we cannot stress enough that time is short, with each passing day increasing the risk for a misstep resulting in a default." Few countries in the world have debt ceiling laws, and Washington's periodic lifting of the borrowing limit merely allows it to pay for spending Congress has already authorized. Biden would agree to a separate discussion on the budget but not tied to the debt ceiling, the White House said. The start of active talks could nonetheless soothe the nerves of investors who last week forced the federal government to pay its highest interest ever for a one-month debt issue. Prices for short-term Treasury bills fell on Tuesday as investors sold off debt that could come due around the time the U.S. debt limit could be hit. [MKTS/GLOB] Biden's foreign travel plans and House and Senate recesses mean there are just seven days when all three parties are scheduled to be in town before June 1. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Monday said a failure to raise the debt limit would hurt the U.S. economy and weaken the dollar as the world's reserve currency. Treasury cash is dwindling as the extraordinary measures it is taking are exhausted.
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Crude knocking on $71 level, unable to unlock that door so far
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USB trap door
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [April 24, 2023]: Still Range-Bound** APRIL 24, 2023 — MONDAY AM The ES, NQ, and YM continue to trade within their multi-week trading ranges, and continue to build energy for expansion to come. Until then, continue to expect back and forth action within these ranges until proven otherwise. Crude Oil continues to work toward a fill of the gap at 75.70. Gold continues to struggle at 2000, which may open the door to 1940 below.
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Yup....ths story didnt end....be patience...Is the way to cut all cash in USA......bankrupt in big banks....Example...if you have one million in your account and the bank crash, FDIC pay you until $250,000 and the other 750,000 bye bye > @Marcosx said: Carlos $USB oened trap door
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [April 21, 2023]: Still in the Range** APRIL 21, 2023 — FRIDAY AM The ES, NQ, and YM continue to trade within their multi-week trading ranges, and continue to build energy for expansion to come. Until then, continue to expect back and forth action within these ranges until proven otherwise. Crude Oil has seen early strength today, which bears will look to defend for a continuation toward a gap fill of 75.70. Gold continues to struggle at 2000, which may open the door to 1940 below.
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"At the same time, Americans, in their infinite wisdom, have decided to slam the door shut on Central and South American immigrants. That’s economic suicide."
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [March 28, 2023]: Crude Oil to 80.50?** MARCH 28, 2023 — TUESDAY AM The ES, NQ, and YM are trading within narrow ranges ahead of the RTH open, which have formed within narrow multi-day ranges. These markets haven't moved much since the newest FOMC key level was created on 3/22, which means a move could be ahead soon. Look to avoid the chop until proven otherwise. Crude Oil saw a bullish transition day through 72 Monday, which opens the door to 80.50 above if bulls can keep 70 bid on any retests ahead. Gold continues to battle 1960 after seeing rejection at 2000.
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By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares were on track for their worst day in a month on Wednesday after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell raised the possibility of the U.S. central bank returning to large rate hikes to tackle sticky inflation. The Fed will likely need to raise interest rates more than previously expected in response to recent strong data, Powell said on the first day of his semi-annual, two-day monetary policy testimony before Congress. The comments from Powell sent stocks sharply lower, weighed on gold, while pushing the dollar to its three month high. [/FRX] MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 1.69% lower at 514.71, with the downbeat mood set to spill over to Europe as futures indicate a lower open. Eurostoxx 50 futures down 0.19%, German DAX futures down 0.28% and FTSE futures down 0.23% After a series of jumbo hikes last year, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in its last two meetings. However, resilient economic data since start of this year had stoked fears the U.S. central bank might return to larger rate rises, which Powell acknowledged. "If the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes," Powell said. Markets are now pricing in an almost 70% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike at the Fed's March 21-22 policy meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool, up from about a 30% a day ago. "Powell has essentially opened the door to 50 basis point hike," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. "He has given the Fed optionality, but one suspects he would be loath to do so as it is not a good look to change tactics when you’ve only just moved down to 25 basis points increments." In Asia, Powell comments cast a shadow with most markets nursing heavy losses. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell nearly 1%, while China shares slipped 0.59%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 2.65%, on course for its worst day since late January. Japan's Nikkei was the sole stock index in Asia with gains, up nearly 0.5%, as a weakening yen buoyed exporters. Shorter-term Treasury yields continued its ascent on Wednesday, with the two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, was up 4.9 basis points at 5.060%, having touched fresh near 16 year high of 5.078% earlier in the session. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at -107.3 basis points, its deepest since August 1981, according to Refinitiv data. Such an inversion is seen as a reliable recession indicator. "Given what we already knew, Powell's hawkish remarks shouldn't have been a surprise, but evidently the market was not prepared," said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY), adding recent data was signalling the U.S. economy started 2023 on a much stronger footing than most had anticipated. The spotlight will now be on Friday's U.S. payrolls data and next week's inflation figures that will dictate further moves from the Fed. Citi strategists said even as-expected payrolls and inflation data could keep the chance of a 50 basis point hike high. "Not following through on a 50 bps increase could then entail an unhelpfully large easing of financial conditions." In the currency market, the dollar continued its charge, touching three month high. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was last at 105.77, up 0.114%, after surging 1.3% on Tuesday. The dollar rose as high as 0.54% against the yen to touch 137.90, its highest since Dec. 15, before easing to trade at 137.67, ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting on Thursday and Friday, when the central bank is expected to stick to its ultra loose monetary policy The euro slipped 0.11% to $1.0536, pinned near its two-month low. Sterling was last trading at $1.1824, down 0.02% on the day, having touched more than three month low of $1.1812 earlier in the session. U.S. crude fell 0.12% to $77.49 per barrel and Brent was at $83.34, up 0.06% on the day.
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@Atlas #Emporos Research
i found a house yesterday . I will be able to continue making indicators and conduct the iMAX review from there . Front porch , patio , and no neighboors at or near my door . However , is not the final space , since the house requires a little bit of upgrades , and I need something up to standard . We will have two new indicators by the end of March , and the iMAX review by the end of Feb , So iMAX will continue in March . I will not mention anything about my working space , will just try to find better houses going forward , moving will not affect work loads , as houses are comfortable enough to maneuver through . . .
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Yeah like why wouldn't Pelosi make a run for the door?
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the moment the door opens looks super sketchy haha > @Pal said: That video is bizarre
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Powell had to keep saying what he believes markets need to hear (hawkish-y rhetoric to control FCI to keep buying time for inflation to soften, which is clearly trending in the ‘right’ direction from the US perspective), but still very much on board with that constructive Fed policy tightening cycle ‘phase shift’ I noted a few weeks back after the Brookings speech, where the focus is no longer about the ‘absolute level of terminal,’ but instead, the final stage [and] the amount of time we hold restrictive at terminal before ultimately pivoting easier. “Hawkish dots due to ongoing labor and wages strength, versus post-CPI expectations for lower dots” is the supposed story of the market reaction to the FOMC, but it seems the real trepidation from markets might actually be about the Fed’s continued persistence in ‘higher for longer’ messag[ing], particularly as it relates to the Committee projecting a pessimistic view that the recent deceleration in inflation will be sustained, and/or that inflation is ‘entrenched’ likely due to labor and wages, a big Fed ‘no no.’ [The] very surprising Fed projection on end ’23 core PCE inflation at 3.5% looks ‘aggressively stale’ in light of this week’s CPI data (i.e. way too high), which again opens the door [to a] marginally [higher] probability of an overtightening accident, so risk didn’t love it. But the thing is, I feel pretty emphatic that both the Fed and ECB are using this approach — this ‘threat of entrenched inflation’ story — to allow for their hawkish ‘higher for longer’ message to keep buying them time while the inflation, labor and wage data is actually moving in the right direction in the background. This has me thinking that next year, we just might get that ‘less-bad-than-anticipated’ outcome.
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1800 is just at the door step
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [November 18, 2022]: Crude Oil to 75?** NOVEMBER 18, 2022 — FRIDAY AM The ES bounced off the key range midpoint of 3920 Thursday, and is attempting to push higher from this level, which opens the door to a move to 4100, and perhaps even 4200 ahead. Failure to hold this new pivot low (3920) will open up a return back toward the lower market structure. Crude Oil has given up the 85 level, and is working lower toward its key range low of 76.25. Look for further weakness to new lows on the year at 75. Gold has developed a very narrow 6-day range, which could fuel the next 100 point move.
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FINALLY GOT THRU THE DOOR
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [November 09, 2022]: Range-Bound Ahead of Inflation Data** NOVEMBER 09, 2022 — WEDNESDAY AM The ES and NQ are both trading within narrow ranges ahead of the RTH open, with both trading at 41% of ADR. The market may be in a holding pattern ahead of Thursday's inflation data, which could trigger the next key move. Crude Oil may be headed back to 85s, and Gold is marching toward 1740. ETH's sell-off has been significant, and could open the door to new lows ahead.
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [November 07, 2022]: Markets Await Midterms, Inflation Data** NOVEMBER 07, 2022 — MONDAY AM The markets are awaiting the results of the midterm elections in the US, in addition to inflation data later in the week. We may see mostly range-bound action ahead of late-week volatility. Watch wMID in the ES for early direction bias. Crude Oil may be due for a rally ahead, especially if price pushes through 94s. Gold is testing prices above 1680, which could open the door to 1740.
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**conorsen:** Notre Dame opens the door to another year of the SEC getting 2 bids, clearly doing God’s work. https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1589077545982775297
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coretraderuk we have an open door policy for people to enjoy the platform....feel free to join us at Coretrader
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The 10-year Treasury yield, a vital benchmark that influences a vast array of consumer borrowing costs, is on its way to hitting 4% for the first time in at least 12 years -- a development that's starting to ripple across financial markets. The rate soared to as high as 3.988% on Tuesday -- more than twice as high as where it started the year -- as financial market participants come on board with the higher-for-longer view on interest rates, driven by central banks' imperative need to bring down inflation. The 10-year rate hasn't been 4% or higher on an intraday basis since April 5, 2010. The last time it finished the New York session at or above that level was in Oct. 15, 2008, according to Tradeweb data.Typically, a rising 10-year yield is seen as a sentiment signal about brighter U.S. economic prospects. This time around, however, "it's a wake-up call that inflation won't be self-curing the way it has been in the last 30 years," said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York. The rate is up five of the past six trading days and is on pace for its largest gain over the first three quarters of a calendar year since 1981. On Monday, it reached a 12-year high of 3.878% before knocking on the door of 4% on Tuesday -- rising closer to levels already reflected elsewhere in the Treasury market.
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By Tom Balmforth KYIV (Reuters) - The United States warned on Sunday of "catastrophic consequences" if Moscow uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, after Russia's foreign minister said regions holding widely criticised referendums would get full protection if annexed by Moscow. Votes were staged for a third day in four eastern Ukrainian regions, aimed at annexing territory Russia has taken by force. The Russian parliament could move to formalise the annexation within days. By incorporating the areas of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia into Russia, Moscow could portray efforts to retake them as attacks on Russia itself, a warning to Kyiv and its Western allies. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the United States would respond to any Russian use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine and had spelled out to Moscow the "catastrophic consequences" it would face. "If Russia crosses this line, there will be catastrophic consequences for Russia," Sullivan told NBC's "Meet the Press" television program. "The United States will respond decisively." The latest U.S. warning followed a thinly veiled nuclear threat made on Wednesday by President Vladimir Putin, who said Russia would use any weapons to defend its territory. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made the point more directly at a news conference on Saturday after a speech to the U.N. General Assembly in New York in which he repeated Moscow's false claims to justify the invasion that the elected government in Kyiv was illegitimately installed and filled with neo-Nazis. Asked if Russia would have grounds for using nuclear weapons to defend annexed regions, Lavrov said Russian territory, including territory "further enshrined" in Russia's constitution in the future, was under the "full protection of the state". British Prime Minister Liz Truss said Britain and its allies should not heed threats from Putin, who had made what she called a strategic mistake as he had not anticipated the strength of reaction from the West. "We should not be listening to his sabre-rattling and his bogus threats," Truss told CNN in an interview broadcast on Sunday. "Instead, what we need to do is continue to put sanctions on Russia and continue to support the Ukrainians." 'BOGUS THREATS' Ukraine and its allies have dismissed the referendums as a sham designed to justify an escalation of the war and a mobilisation drive by Moscow after recent battlefield losses. Russian news agencies quoted unidentified sources as saying the Russian parliament could debate bills to incorporate the new territories as soon as Thursday. State-run RIA Novosti said Putin could address parliament on Friday. Russia says the referendums, hastily organised after Ukraine recaptured territory in a counteroffensive this month, enable people in those regions to express their view. Luhansk's regional governor said Russian-backed officials were going door to door with ballot boxes and if residents failed to vote correctly their names were taken down. "A woman walks down the street with what looks like a karaoke microphone telling everyone to take part in the referendum," Luhansk governor Serhiy Gaidai said in an interview posted online. "Representatives of the occupation forces are going from apartment to apartment with ballot boxes. This is a secret ballot, right?" The territory controlled by Russian forces in the four regions represents about 15% of Ukraine, of roughly the size of Portugal. It would add to Crimea, an area nearly the size of Belgium that Russia claims to have annexed in 2014. Ukrainian forces still control some territory in each region, including about 40% of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia's provincial capital. Heavy fighting continued along the entire front, especially in northern Donetsk and in Kherson. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who insists that Ukraine will regain all its territory, said on Sunday some of the clashes had yielded "positive results" for Kyiv. "This is the Donetsk region, this is our Kharkiv region. This is the Kherson region, and also the Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia regions," he said in nightly video remarks. In a statement on Facebook (NASDAQ:META), the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces said Russia had launched four missile and seven air strikes and 24 instances of shelling on targets in Ukraine in the past 24 hours, hitting dozens of towns, including some in and around the Donetsk and Kherson regions. Reuters could not independently verify the accounts. PROTESTS IN RUSSIA OVER DRAFT On Wednesday, Putin ordered Russia's first military mobilization since World War Two. The move triggered protests across Russia and sent many men of military age fleeing. Two of Russia's most senior lawmakers tackled on Sunday a string of mobilisation complaints, ordering regional officials to swiftly solve "excesses" stoking public anger. More than 2,000 people have been detained across Russia for draft protests, says independent monitoring group OVD-Info. In Russia, where criticism of the conflict is banned, the demonstrations are among the first signs of discontent since the war began. In the Muslim-majority southern Russian region of Dagestan, police clashed with protesters, with at least 100 people detained. Zelenskiy acknowledged the protests in his video address. "Keep on fighting so that your children will not be sent to their deaths - all those that can be drafted by this criminal Russian mobilisation," he said. "Because if you come to take away the lives of our children - and I am saying this as a father - we will not let you get away alive."
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Cathie out of the door
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**L'Arabia Saudita e i suoi alleati aprono alla possibilità di riduzione della produzione di petrolio per mantenere alti i prezzi - WSJ.** https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudis-allies-open-door-to-oil-output-cut-to-keep-prices-high-11661268794?mod=latest_headlines
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@Discog123 #Emporos Research
"how fat was the lock on trump's Mar a lago door" 🥴
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its not like he went door to door like
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By Ann Saphir and Howard Schneider (Reuters) -Slowing U.S. inflation may have opened the door for the Federal Reserve to temper the pace of coming interest rate hikes, but policymakers left no doubt they will continue to tighten monetary policy until price pressures are fully broken. A U.S. Labor Department report Wednesday showing consumer prices didn't rise at all in July compared with June was just one step in what policymakers said would be a long process, with a red-hot job market and suddenly buoyant equity prices suggesting the economy needs more of the cooling that would come from higher borrowing costs. The Fed is "far, far away from declaring victory" on inflation, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said at the Aspen Ideas Conference, despite the "welcome" news in the CPI report. Kashkari said he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need to raise the Fed's policy rate to 3.9% by year-end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. The rate is currently in the 2.25%-2.5% range. To be sure, Kashkari is the Fed's most hawkish member; most of his 18 colleagues believe a little less policy tightening may be enough to do the trick to bring prices under better control. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, in an interview with the Financial Times, also warned it is far too early for the U.S. central bank to "declare victory" in its fight against inflation. However, Daly said that a half-percentage point rate rise was her "baseline" but did not rule out a third consecutive 0.75% point rate rise at the central bank's next policy meeting in September, according to the report. Calling inflation "unacceptably" high, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said he believes the Fed will likely need to lift its policy rate to 3.25%-3.5% this year and to 3.75%-4% by the end of next year, in line with what Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled after the Fed's latest meeting in July. Still, he said, the CPI report marks the first "positive" reading on inflation since the Fed began raising interest rates in March in increasing increments -- a quarter of a percentage point to start, then a half a point, and then three-quarters-of-a-percentage point in both June and July. After Wednesday's CPI report, traders of futures tied to the Fed's benchmark interest rate pared bets on a third straight 75-basis-point hike at its Sept. 20-21 policy meeting, and now see a half-point increase as the more likely option. Equity markets took a similar cue on hopes for a less aggressive central bank, with the S&P 500 rising 2.1%. Financial markets are currently pricing a top fed funds rate of 3.75% by year-end, with rate cuts to follow next year, presumably as policymakers move to counter economic weakness. Kashkari called that scenario unrealistic, and said Fed policymakers are "united" in their determination to bring inflation down to the Fed's 2% target. The risk of recession "will not deter me" from advocating for what's needed to do so, he said. DATA ON TAP For the Fed to scale back, fresh inflation data will need to confirm the idea that price increases are slowing. The consumer price index rose 8.5% in July from a year earlier, Wednesday's report showed. While that marked a drop from June's 9.1% rate, prices are still rising at levels not seen since the 1970s and early 1980s. Food prices in July were up 11% from the year before, devastating for lower income families in particular. For the moment, however, analysts focused on the fact that, after months in which accelerating price pressures pushed Fed policymakers to tighten credit conditions faster than at any time since the 1980s, inflation data finally surprised in the other direction. "The Fed needs a lot more evidence (of slowing inflation)... but this is a good start," said Karim Basta, chief economist with III Capital Management. Data on August consumer inflation will be released on Sept. 13, the week before the Fed meets, and given recent trends in energy and some other prices the report "should also be friendly to the disinflation path and should make a 50 basis point hike the preferred option." Still, the Fed's battle with high inflation is far from over. The core consumer price index - which strips out volatile gas and food prices and is seen as a better predictor of future inflation - rose 0.3% from June and 5.9% from a year earlier. The Fed targets 2% inflation based on a different index that is rising at a lower, but still high, rate of more than 6%. An alternative measure of consumer prices compiled by the Cleveland Fed, known as the Median Consumer Price Index and considered a good view of the breadth of prices pressures in the economy, rose 6.3% on an annual basis in July, compared to 6% in June. "Overall, prices remain uncomfortably high," wrote High Frequency Economics' Rubeela Farooqi, who stuck with her call for a 75-basis point rate hike next month. "Coupled with strength in job growth and wages, the data support the case for another aggressive rate hike in September."
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By Tom Wilson LONDON (Reuters) - Stocks slipped and bond yields fell on Tuesday on worries a visit by U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan would further harm relations between China and the United States. Investors sought safer assets after China threatened repercussions if Pelosi visited the self-ruled island, which Beijing claims as its territory. U.S. long-term Treasury yields dropped to a four-month low, while euro zone bond yields fell. The Japanese yen was on track for a fifth straight day of gains versus the dollar. The greenback also gained against a basket of currencies, while crude oil sank as investors worried over signs of a global manufacturing downturn. The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, fell 0.5%. The broad Euro STOXX 600 shed 1%, deepening losses during morning trade. Wall Street stocks were set to fall around 0.8%, futures gauges showed. Pelosi was expected to arrive in Taipei later on Tuesday, with several Chinese warplanes flying close to the median line dividing the Taiwan Strait, a source told Reuters. China has repeatedly warned against Pelosi going to Taiwan. Washington said on Monday it would not be intimidated by China. "It's all about the Taiwan threat," said Robert Alster, chief investment officer at Close Brothers Asset Management. "There's no way you can say it's not moved up the geopolitical agenda." The Taiwan issue added to a sense of unease sparked by China, Europe and the United States on Monday reporting weakening factory activity, with that in the United States decelerating to its lowest level since August 2020. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as low as 2.52%, its lowest in four months, also benefiting from bets a slowdown could spur the Federal Reserve to ease off the policy-tightening pedal. RECESSION FEARS Germany's 10-year government bond yield fell 4.5 basis points to 0.72%, after hitting its lowest since early April. The fall has come as investors scale back expectations for European Central Bank rate hikes on recession fears. Brent futures edged down to $99.14 a barrel after losing almost $4 overnight. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures also eased to $92.94, extending Monday's almost $5 slide. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares retreated 1.3%. Taiwan's stock index dropped 1.6%, while Chinese blue chips tumbled 2%. The flight for safety played out in currency markets, too. The U.S. dollar slid to as low as 130.40 against the Japanese yen, a level not seen for almost two months. It was last down 0.5%. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.3% to 105.62. The Taiwan dollar slipped to its lowest level in more than two years on the weaker side of 30 per U.S. dollar. Australian stocks pared declines and the Aussie dollar weakened after the central bank raised the key rate by an as-expected 50 basis points, with markets interpreting changes to the accompanying policy statement as dovish. The Aussie fell 1.4% to $0.69910, extending a retreat following the Reserve Bank of Australia's move. "The Aussie has been underperforming other major currencies lately given global growth concerns, so it really needed a hawkish surprise to reignite its recovery from two-year lows," said Sean Callow, a currency strategist at Westpac in Sydney. "Instead, it got the RBA leaving the door wide open to slowing the pace of tightening at future meetings." Cryptocurrencies, a barometer for risk appetite, also fell, with bitcoin slipping 1.6% to $22,896.
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By Kevin Buckland TOKYO (Reuters) - Asia stocks tumbled on Tuesday as jitters about an escalation in Sino-U.S. tension with U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi set to begin a trip to Taiwan, adding to fears about the risk of global recession. U.S. long-term Treasury yields dropped to a four-month low, pulling the U.S. dollar down, amid a bid for safer assets after China threatened repercussions in the event of the visit by Pelosi to the self-ruled island, which China claims as its territory. Crude oil also sank. Meanwhile, Australian stocks pared declines and the Aussie dollar weakened after the central bank raised the key rate by an as-expected 50 basis points, with markets interpreting changes to the accompanying policy statement as dovish. Japan's Nikkei slid 1.54%, while Taiwan's stock index dropped 1.87%. Chinese blue chips tumbled 2.47% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 2.71%. However, Australia's equity benchmark was just 0.23% lower, after an earlier decline of 0.7% MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares retreated 1.33%. U.S. e-mini stock futures pointed to a 0.44% lower restart for the S&P 500, which stumbled 0.28% overnight. "We knew from the onset that (Pelosi's trip) would be a driver of risk-off sentiment in the region," said Carlos Casanova, the senior Asia economist at Union Bancaire Privee in Hong Kong. "There's going to be a lot of speculation and uncertainty about what the extent of China's response will be in the short term." The week began with China, Europe and the United States reporting weakening factory activity, with that in the U.S. decelerating to its lowest level since August 2020. That sank crude, with Brent futures edging down to $99.27 a barrel on Tuesday after losing almost $4 overnight. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures also eased to $93.26, extending Monday's almost $5 slide. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell as low as 2.53% in Tokyo trade, the lowest since April 5, amid wagers the slowdown could spur the U.S. Federal Reserve to ease off the policy-tightening pedal. The bonds also benefited from safety-seeking demand before Pelosi's Taiwan visit. That helped the U.S. dollar slide as low as 130.40 yen for the first time since June 6. The euro jumped as high as $1.0294, a level not seen since July 5. The Taiwan dollar slipped to its lowest level in more than two years on the weaker side of 30 per U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the Aussie was 0.51% lower at $0.69910, extending a 0.14% retreat following the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision. It had hit the highest since June 17, at $0.7048, in the previous session but that was after bouncing off a 26-month trough at $0.66825 in the middle of last month. "The Aussie has been underperforming other major currencies lately given global growth concerns so it really needed a hawkish surprise to reignite its recovery from 2-year lows," said Sean Callow, a currency strategist at Westpac in Sydney. "Instead, it got the RBA leaving the door wide open to slowing the pace of tightening at future meetings, sending AUD back below $0.70."
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [July 22, 2022]: More Upside Ahead?** JULY 22, 2022 — FRIDAY AM The ES and NQ have both pushed through mMID, which opens the door to mHI ahead. Any pullback could offer a short term buying opportunity for a shot at last month's high. For today, look for morning weakness to be bought for late-day strength. Crude Oil may see another 1 to 3 days of weakness ahead after Thursday's selling pressure. BTC and ETH have both rallied nicely during the last week of trading. We could see a bounce ahead, as mHI could be in play.
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KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF THAT 23% LINE
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3970 knocking on the door
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GBPJPY IS GONNA KNOCK ON THAT 168.000 DOOR AGAIN.. JUST WAIT ON IT
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**firoozye:** Revolving-Door Riches: How Obama-Biden Officials Cashed In During The Trump Years via @forbes https://t.co/tnV8TNsBIN ht @NUMISMATICS9 https://twitter.com/firoozye/status/1542165939407491072
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**elerianm:** Somewhat more hawkish @ECB tone than the consensus expectation...leading to A jump in yields on German #bonds; Widest Italy-Germany spread for almost 2 years; and Weaker #stocks. And with the ECB opening the door to a 50 bps September hike, 50 is the new 25 around the world https://t.co/gZGcS39Ag4 https://twitter.com/elerianm/status/1534884190436700160
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By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares joined U.S. stock futures in making cautious gains on Monday ahead of U.S. inflation data this week, while the euro touched a seven-year top against the yen amid wagers on European Central Bank tightening. Oil prices firmed after Saudi Arabia raised prices sharply for its crude sales in July, an indicator of how tight supply is even after OPEC+ agreed to accelerate output increases over the next two months. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched up 0.1%, while Japan's Nikkei recouped early losses to gain 0.6%. S&P 500 futures added 0.5% and Nasdaq futures 0.6%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures rose 0.8% and FTSE futures 1.0%. Chinese blue chips climbed 1.3% after a survey confirmed service sector activity shrunk in May, but the Caixin index still improved to 41.4 from 36.2. Sentiment was aided by comments from U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo that President Joe Biden has asked his team to look at the option of lifting some tariffs on China. Markets will be on tenterhooks for the U.S. consumer price report on Friday, especially after EU inflation shocked many with a record high last week. Forecasts are for a steep rise of 0.7% in May, though the annual pace is seen holding at 8.3% while core inflation is seen slowing a little to 5.9%. A high number would only add to expectations of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve with markets already priced for half-point increases in June and July, and almost 200 basis points by the end of the year. Some analysts thought Friday's upbeat payrolls report suggested the Fed was on track for a soft landing. "May's numbers came in about as good as the Fed could expect," said Jonathan Millar, an economist at Barclays (LON:BARC). "It's a good sign that the Fed's plans to cool the labour market are playing out favourably so far, with solid gains in employment continuing to generate steady income gains that will help allay recession worries, for the time being." NOT SO NEGATIVE The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and President Christine Lagarde is considered certain to confirm an end to bond buying this month and a first rate increase in July, though the jury is out on whether that will be 25 or 50 basis points. Money markets are priced for 125 bps of increases by year-end, and 100 bps as soon as October. "Recent communication by ECB officials have looked to 25bp increases at July and September to exit negative rates by the end of Q3, though with some members preferring to leave the door to larger 50bp hikes open," said analyst at NAB. "Lagarde's post-meeting press conference will be closely watched." The prospect of rates turning positive this year has helped the euro nudge up to $1.0731, some way from its recent trough of $1.0348, though it has struggled to clear resistance around $1.0786. The euro also made a seven-year peak on the yen at 140.39, after climbing 2.9% last week, while the dollar held at 130.65 yen having also gained 2.9% last week. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar stood at 102.110 after firming 0.4% last week. In commodity markets, wheat futures jumped 4% after Russia struck Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, with missiles, dampening hopes for progress in peace talks. Gold was stuck at $1,855 an ounce, having held to a tight range for the past couple of weeks. [GOL/] Oil prices got an added lift after Saudi Arabia set higher prices for shipments to Asia, while investors are wagering supply increases planned by OPEC will not be enough to meet demand especially as China is easing its lockdowns. [O/R] "Perhaps only a third to half of what OPEC+ has promised will come online over the next two months," said Vivek Dhar, a mining and energy analyst at CBA. "While that increase is sorely needed, it falls short of demand growth expectations, especially with EU's partial ban on Russian oil imports also factored in. We see upside risks to our near term Brent oil price forecast of US$110/bbl." Indeed, Brent is already well past that adding 74 cents on Monday to reach $120.46 a barrel. U.S. crude rose another 75 cents to $119.62 per barrel.
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