$EL

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/07/06/binance-elimina-comisiones-para-el-trading-de-bitcoin-en-todo-el-mundo/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

Hay que contemplar 2 escenarios, ahorita los commodities están bajando de precio lo cual indica que la próxima lectura de inflación puede salir baja y esto obliga a la FED a calmarse con la subida de tasas. De darse este escenario el mercado puede tener un fuerte rebote al alza. 2) Tambien que baje el precio de los commmdites fuertemente tampoco es bueno, ya que también puede apuntar a una recesión la cual en mi opinión ya estamos descontando pero esto no descarta un leg más a la baja.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/el-salvador-s-bitcoin-wallet-chivo-scores-52m-in-remittances-in-2022

By Sam Byford and Tom Westbrook TOKYO/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell and the dollar stood by a two-decade high on the euro on Wednesday as investors' fears deepened that the continent is leading the world into recession, while oil and European equity futures made a wobbly attempt to steady. Brent crude futures have slid this month on worries that a global slowdown will sap demand. Prices slumped 9.5% to a 2-1/2 month low of $101.10 on Tuesday, before bouncing slightly to $103.86 a barrel in the Asia session on Wednesday. [O/R] MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific stocks outside Japan fell 1%, led by a 2% drop for Taiwan's benchmark index - heavy with growth-sensitive computer chip makers - which hit an 18-month low. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.1%. S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% while FTSE futures and EuroSTOXX 50 futures rose 1% after heavy Tuesday selling. News has been relentlessly negative, with talk of gas rationing in Europe, a political crisis in Britain and a fresh flare up of COVID-19 cases prompting fresh restrictions in Shanghai. In the United States, the two-year Treasury yield has dropped below the 10-year yield, a reliable market signal of a recession capping growth in the medium term. [US/] "The drumbeat is getting louder and louder about recession risk," said Jason Teh, chief investment officer at Vertium Asset Management in Sydney. "Right now defence is the name of the game. It's the best strategy right now, because in a recession a lot of things can fall out of bed." Accordingly ,the dollar has been king and a safety bid has even returned to the beaten-down Japanese yen. The U.S. dollar index hit a 20-year high of 106.79 on Tuesday, hoisted by a tumbling euro. The index hovered at 106.440 on Wednesday and the yen rose about 0.4% to 135.39 per dollar. [FRX/] The euro huddled at $1.0266 after dropping as far as $1.0236 on Tuesday and traders expect little respite. Selling could follow if Eurozone retail sales figures due at 0900 GMT disappoint expectations for a 0.4% monthly rise in May. "There are no important support levels for EUR/USD until $1," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) strategist Kristina Clifton. Sterling was near a two-year low at $1.1944 after the resignation of two of Britain's top government ministers put Prime Minster Boris Johnson's leadership under new pressure. GAS GAS GAS Uncertainty over Europe's gas supply is leading the latest round of worries, and has sent prices rocketing against slumps in other commodities on growth worries. [EL/DE] Benchmark Dutch gas prices have doubled since the middle of June. Some investors worry that flow along the Nord Stream pipeline, which brings gas from Russia to Germany, might not resume after a ten-day maintenance shutdown from July 11 and that winter supply shortages will then prompt rationing and a sharp drop in economic activity. The backdrop is rising interest rates. The Federal Reserve publishes minutes later on Wednesday from the June meeting, where it announced the sharpest hike in the U.S. benchmark interest rate in nearly 30 years. It is likely to foreshadow more hikes as Fed officials have said their top priority is fighting inflation, even at the cost of growth. "The probability of a soft landing had massively declined," August Hatecke, the co-head of UBS Wealth Management Asia Pacific told investors at a conference in Singapore. The growth-sensitive Australian dollar was stuck near a two-year low at $0.6805. [AUD/] Spot gold was last steady at $1,771 an ounce after sliding on the strong dollar overnight. The safe haven is down about 3% this year, less than the steep losses for equities and bonds. Treasuries were steady in Asia with the 10-year yield at 2.8327% and the two-year yield at 2.8385%. Bitcoin, which has been demolished in the flight from risky assets, sat at $20,115.

By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil rose on Monday as supply concerns driven by lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia outweighed fears of demand-sapping global recession. Euro zone inflation hit yet another record high in June, strengthening the case for rapid European Central Bank rate increases, while U.S. consumer sentiment hit a record low. Brent crude rose $1.55, or 1.4%, to $113.18 a barrel by 1318 GMT after falling more than $1 in early trade. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.34, or 1.2%, to $109.77. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) missed a target to boost output in June, a Reuters survey found. [OPEC/O] In OPEC member Libya, authorities declared force majeure at Es Sidr and Ras Lanuf ports as well as the El Feel oilfield on Thursday, saying oil output was down by 865,000 barrels per day (bpd). Meanwhile, Ecuador's production has been hit by more than two weeks of unrest that has caused the country to lose nearly 2 million barrels of output, state-run oil company Petroecuador said. Adding to potential supply woes, a strike this week in Norway could cut supply from Western Europe's largest oil producer and cut overall petroleum output by about 8%. "This backdrop of mounting supply outages is colliding with a possible shortage in spare production capacity among Middle Eastern oil producers," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM, referring to the limited ability of producers to pump more oil. "And without new oil production hitting markets soon, prices will be forced higher." Brent came close this year to the 2008 record high of $147 a barrel after Russia's invasion of Ukraine added to supply concerns. Soaring energy prices on the back of bans on Russian oil and reduced gas supply has driven inflation to multi-decade highs in some countries and stoked recession fears.

By Ahmad Ghaddar LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose about 3% on Friday, recouping most of the previous session's declines, as supply outages in Libya and expected shutdowns in Norway outweighed expectations that an economic slowdown could dent demand. Brent crude futures were up $3.03, or 2.8%, at $112.06 a barrel by 1157 GMT, having dropped to $108.03 a barrel earlier in the session. WTI crude futures gained $2.84, or 2.7%, to $108.60 a barrel, after retreating to $104.56 a barrel earlier. Both contracts fell around 3% on Thursday, ending the month lower for the first time since November. We "still see risks to prices as skewed to the upside on tight inventories, limited spare capacity and muted non-OPEC+ supply response," Barclays (LON:BARC) said in a note. Libya's National Oil Corporation declared force majeure on Thursday at the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports as well as the El Feel oilfield. Force majeure is still in effect at the ports of Brega and Zueitina, NOC said. Production has seen a sharp decline, with daily exports ranging between 365,000 and 409,000 bpd, a decrease of 865,000 bpd compared to production in "normal circumstances", NOC said. Elsewhere, 74 Norwegian offshore oil workers at Equinor's Gudrun, Oseberg South and Oseberg East platforms will go on strike from July 5, the Lederne trade union said on Thursday, likely halting about 4% of Norway's oil production. Ecuador's government and indigenous groups' leaders on Thursday reached an agreement to end more than two weeks of protests which had led to the shut-in of more than half of the country's pre-crisis 500,000 bpd oil output. On Thursday, the OPEC+ group of producers, including Russia, agreed to stick to its output strategy after two days of meetings. However, the producer club avoided discussing policy from September onwards. Previously, OPEC+ decided to increase output each month by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July and August, up from a previous plan to add 432,000 bpd per month. U.S. President Joe Biden will make a three-stop trip to the Middle East in mid-July that includes a visit to Saudi Arabia, pushing energy policy into the spotlight as the United States and other countries face soaring fuel prices that are driving up inflation. Biden said on Thursday he would not directly press Saudi Arabia to increase oil output to curb soaring prices when he sees the Saudi king and crown prince during a visit this month. A Reuters survey found that OPEC pumped 28.52 million bpd in June, down 100,000 bpd from May's revised total. [OPEC/O] Oil prices are expected to stay above $100 a barrel this year as Europe and other regions struggle to wean themselves off Russian supply, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, though economic risks could slow the climb. India introduced export duties on gasoil, gasoline and jet fuel on Friday to help maintain domestic supplies, while also imposing a windfall tax on oil producers who have benefited from higher global crude oil prices.

https://cryptonews.com/news/following-microstrategy-el-salvadors-bukele-buys-another-bitcoin-dip-too-skeptics-chime-in.htm

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/07/01/el-salvador-purchases-80-additional-bitcoin-at-19k-president-bukele-says/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2022/06/30/jpmorgan-dice-que-el-ciclo-de-desapalancamiento-del-mercado-cripto-no-sera-largo/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

Unusually heavy option volume on today's open include $NKE, $LNC, $FE, $EL, and $EXPE.

Enjoy el rally estimados :)

Hemos cambiado nuestra fecha del curso de options, estaremos empezando el sábado 9 de julio.

Hay muchas empresas de fondeo hoy brinando cuentas de 50K o más, pero eso es otra cosa, ya que lo ven con el objetivo de pagar suscripciones te dan demasiado apalancamiento y no es sostenible tampoco replicable sin la base correcta.

En realidad nosotros tenemos un partnership con DTTW que es una propfirm office. Yo hago Proptrading y hemos tenido algunos alumnos tambien. Lo que pasa es que el metodo de las propfirm no esta todavia desarrollado en estos paises por falta de cultura bursátil.

La Volatilidad implicata (VIX) comparada contra SPX (sp500) se ve prometedora el indice tiene buenas condiciones para regresar a la consolidación anterior antes del ulitmo drop

esto nos puede llevar a un long rally de una semanas antes de otro verdadero attempt a romper el low

EARNINGS soon, estos días vi hubo un attempt de long squeeze en el horario de Asia el lunes por la noche y Europa martes madrugada, Luego horario Asia martes por la noche y Europa miercoles otro dip down ahora obviamente sin intentar el long squeeze pero ahora vi RISK ON actitud (parece que estan acumulando). Las Earnings son en Julio, clasica jugada de big players es buy pre earnings, subir el precio y hacer que retailers se emocionen impulsando, ver todo post earnings.

Les comparto el nuevo dashboard económico y de mercados con información a mayo 2022. Elaborado por @robertodeleon7 y el equipo de Zona Trading Lab.

QQQ ya en -3%, SPY -2.82% y esto es aun sin el long queeze de los longs de ayer

Veremos si el escuadrón de la FED de estabilización del mercado no aparece para evitar un debacle mayor hoy (Si la FED aparece aveces y participa cuando empieza haber panico)

Sera un Open de USA de pelicula, toda esa gente que le va hacer gap para abajo puede ser el combustible para que tengamos un dia de -4% en SP500

posible long squeeze a los que compraron ayer en el rally en single name stocks y ETFs que abren en 15 minutos

ES(futuros de SP500) ya regresaron todo el rally de ayer estan por debajo del low de ayer)

Este es el volumen de compra de ayer de SPX (SP500)

La recesión podria darse en el segundo semestre, la pregunta sería que tanto estamos descontando esto

Predicciones del PIB ´por parte del banco de Atlanta para el segundo semestre del 2002

Hay que ver como reacciona el labors market ante las subidas de tasas de interes, ahi puede estar la clave. Yo creo que la FED continua creyendo en su soft landing, pero lo más probable es que la recesión sea la cura para estabilizar los precios.

- El quantitative tightening será prolongado en los próximos meses

En el momento que te das cuenta que empresas como Celsius y el earn de luna te pagaban un yield de 20% o más, te hace pensar que estabas viendo como hace 15 años era como comprar CDOs sinteticos de las hipotecas subprime jajaja

que estará diciendo El Salvador y su btc 😳

BTC casi casi toco el 2018 high hoy

Ahorita hay un 95% de probabilidad de que vayan a subir las tasas de interes en 75 pb, que ya esta descontado. Creo que el escenario que estamos viendo en los OTM puts es si se da a una subida de 100 puntos básicos, mañana todo el mercado esta en manos de la FED

Es impresionante el nivel de open interest que hay en 330 para los contratos que expiran este viernes en el SPY. Justamente lo que decias

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/06/14/con-la-caida-del-mercado-el-salvador-registra-perdidas-por-52-millones-en-tenencias-de-bitcoin/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/06/14/el-salvador-is-down-52m-on-its-bitcoin-bet-after-market-crash/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

https://cryptonews.com/news/el-salvadors-finance-minister-laughs-off-claims-of-usd-40m-bitcoin-losses.htm

ES parece que quiere cerrar en el cuartil inferior de la barra, si es el caso, sigue sin encontrar liquidez

Ahorita el nivel clave es 370 y ya estan haciendo hedge por debajo de esos niveles, ese es el nuevo nivel que importa

lo que puedo decir es que el lado BID no tiene liquidez

hoy tuvimos el quinto selling opening mas alto de la historia

una trigger geo politico hace que el mercado baje a 345 y si los MM no estan short

si soy un MM shorteo el mercado y le hago hedge a mi gamma

370 es ahora el nuevo support level

Mis puts OTM iniiciales estan deep in the Money, impresionante para que vean el nivel de caida.

talvez en el 2023 :)

Es una carnicería el mercado crypto, yo ahi ando aguantando como campeón🤣

Norog: nessuno sciopero petrolifero, a motivo del mancato accordo sugli straordinari, avrà luogo in Norvegia . Corea del Sud: la Corea del Nord sembra aver lanciato colpi di artiglieria. El-Erian: l'IPC annualizzato negli Stati Uniti potrebbe raggiungere il 9%.

El core CPI no hizo high (que es positivo) pero no siguio bajando