$FIVE

(Reuters) - The most important day for U.S. retailers is here and questions are rife on whether king dollar is set to lose its crown. Global purchasing managers data will shine a light on the health of the world economy, while markets want to see whether Beijing could step up some of its promised support. And the World Cup football bonanza is underway in Qatar. Here's a look at the week ahead in markets from Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo and Amanda Cooper, Dara Ranasinghe and Karin Strohecker in London. 1/GOING SHOPPING With concerns that the U.S. economy may be on the verge of a recession, a key test of consumer demand arrives on Nov. 25, when retailers launch "Black Friday" sales - a day traditionally marked by long lines of shoppers eager to pounce on discounts. Soaring inflation and surging interest rates could test buying appetite. October U.S. retail sales increased more than expected, boosted by purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, suggesting the consumer may be on more solid footing heading into year-end. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Retailers have offered mixed results in the most recent earnings season. Just this week, Walmart (NYSE:WMT) lifted its annual sales and profit forecast as demand for groceries was expected to hold up despite higher prices, while Target (NYSE:TGT) forecast a surprise drop in holiday-quarter sales. 2/PAST THE PEAK The rise of the U.S. dollar has been the dominant trading theme of 2022, thanks to the Federal Reserve's quest to raise interest rates to quell inflation, giving the currency an edge over its peers among investors, who have been starved of any kind of yield for at least a decade. October's inflation report delivered evidence that consumer price pressures have slowed for the past four straight months from June's 41-year peak of 9.1%. The dollar index, meanwhile, peaked at a 20-year high of 114.78 in September and has been falling ever since. Now, it's heading for its biggest quarterly loss since the second quarter of 2017, having shed 4.5% in value. The time may be fast approaching for dollar bears to emerge from hibernation. 3/BLEAK OUT THERE The International Monetary Fund says the global economic outlook is even gloomier than it was a month ago. Is the pessimism justified? Preliminary readings of business activity in November from a number of economies could answer the question in the coming days. Manufacturing PMIs for October pointed to a deepening contraction in global industry, with developed markets leading the decline. In most European countries, PMIs are below the 50 marker that separates expansion from contraction -- France was an exception. Britain is already facing a lengthy recession. Euro zone economic growth has held up better than expected and labour markets remain relatively robust. But the risk of recession is still elevated for a region grappling with an energy shock and higher costs for anything from financing to wages. 4/ZEROING IN ON CHINA The Chinese central bank's pledge to step up supportive policy measures are in focus, though policymakers kept benchmark lending rates steady for a third straight month on Monday. Some had expected a cut in the five-year loan prime rate (LPR), though no change suggests the bank remains wary of stoking further yuan weakness by easing monetary conditions. Stocks and industrial metal markets had cheered signs of pro-growth initiatives, from help for the beleaguered property market to, crucially, an easing of choking zero-COVID policies. But the COVID outlook remains murky. Noises from Beijing are that "life-saving" measures are essential, which argues against making too much of a two-day reduction in quarantine times. Students in schools across several Beijing districts buckled down for online classes after officials called for residents in some of its hardest-hit areas to stay home. Other regional central banks will also be setting rates. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is tipped for a super-sized 75 basis point hike on Wednesday, while the Bank of Korea is seen tightening again, but possibly only by a quarter of a point. 5/ THE BEAUTIFUL GAME The football World Cup is finally underway - an event marred by controversy since Qatar was awarded hosting rights 12 years ago, including allegations of corruption and human rights violations. Qatar has much riding on the tournament passing off smoothly - hoping to affirm Doha's place on the global stage and for an economic boost. Higher consumption, government spending and services exports are all positives for the Gulf state that has seen its growth outlook trail some of its peers in a region buffeted by high crude prices. But it remains to be seen how long these effects might last, according to analysts. (Graphics by Sumanta Sen, Riddhima Talwani, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit Kongkunakornul and Vincent Flasseur; Compiled by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Elaine Hardcastle)

Take Five: Black Friday test

Hey giz, I'm with you on the day trade and followed all the rules. It looks like we will sell auto five minutes before close.

so , if you were to invest with me 100,000 , i would have five 20,000 finals

By Kevin Buckland TOKYO (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar climbed versus the yen and stayed firm against other major peers on Tuesday as more Federal Reserve officials made the case for even tighter U.S. monetary policy. The greenback edged up against sterling and hovered more than 1% above its two-month trough to the euro after Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard on Monday echoed weekend comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller that interest rates need to keep rising to battle inflation, although potentially at a slower pace. The dollar index, which measures the currency against six counterparts including the yen, euro and sterling, edged 0.03% higher to 107.00 early in the Asian day. The index held onto gains made on Monday when it rebounded from a three-month low of 106.27 hit on Friday. The index tumbled 3.9% last week, its worst performance since March 2020, after U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected, stoking speculation a peak in rates might be close. Money markets are currently pricing in an 89% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will slow the pace of hikes to a half point at its next meeting on Dec. 14, against 11% odds for another 75 basis point increase. "Fed speaker(s) have set the tone, reminding markets that there is still a lot of work to be done to bring inflation to heal," National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) senior FX strategist Rodrigo Catril wrote in a note to clients. "The USD is broadly stronger with last week's outperformers - GBP and JPY - leading the declines." The dollar gained 0.34% to 140.40 yen, adding to its 0.84% overnight rebound from a 2 1/2-month low of 138.46. It dropped 5.39% last week, the most in 14 years. Sterling declined 0.08% to $1.1750, slipping further from a 2 1/2-month top at $1.1855 from Friday. The euro was little changed at $1.03215 following its retreat from a three-month high of $1.0364. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar eased 0.13% to $0.66935, but stayed relatively close to Monday's nearly two-month peak of $0.6720, buoyed by key trading partner China's moves to ease COVID-19 restrictions and support the property market. There was little reaction in the currency from minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest meeting, which showed policymakers considered a 50 bps hike before opting for another 25 bps bump. "The Aussie has made some progress on cross rates so far this week, with help from China," said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac, adding there is the potential for a rise to $0.6775 in coming days. "However global equities are still skittish, limiting Aussie upside." The offshore Chinese yuan was little changed at 7.0461 per dollar, after hitting a more than five-week high of 7.0200 in the previous session.

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Summary Cano Health currently presents an interesting investment opportunity with a potential short-term 58% upside. Recently, rumors appeared that Cano Health has received acquisition interest, with healthcare industry giants CVS Health, Humana and UnitedHealth among the rumored buyers. Given ongoing pressure from two prominent activists and industry consolidation trends, I expect a company sale to be announced shortly. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Special Situation Investing. Learn More » Health visitor and a senior woman during nursing home visit A Potential company sale might be brewing up behind the scenes. Cano Health (NYSE:CANO) owns and operates senior primary care health centers in nine US states, with a primary focus on Florida. Recently, Bloomberg, Reuters and WSJ reported that the company has received acquisition interests, with health industry giants Humana (HUM), UnitedHealth (UNH) and CVS Health (CVS) mentioned as the front-runners to buyout CANO. Acquisition rumors follow activism from several of CANO's shareholders. In March, Daniel Loeb's Third Point (2.2% of voting power) started to push the company towards strategic alternatives, arguing that CANO should address the value gap (arising from the company going public through a SPAC) by initiating a company sale. Then, in August, Owl Creek Asset Management (owns 1%) delivered a letter, also considering the company undervalued versus peers and industry transactions. As it stands, it seems that the management/insiders (who own 55%) have been under pressure from two prominent activists to sell the company. Not surprisingly, in August, CANO's management stated that the company is open to all strategic alternatives and has hired financial advisors. Reportedly, the second round of discussions is currently ongoing, with the deal possibly finalized in the upcoming weeks. Reports do not mention the acquisition price, however, peer/transaction multiples (also mentioned by the activist Owl Creek) suggest $14/share might be a reasonable price tag - this would imply a 58% upside from current levels. Buyout rumors come amid broader healthcare industry consolidation trends as large healthcare insurers are scooping up healthcare providers in an effort to combine insurance and healthcare provider activities. The industry is currently in a shift towards value based care - a model where providers are paid based on patient health outcomes (as opposed to the traditional fee-for-service model where patients pay for each service rather than outcome). Naturally, the value-based care model closely aligns the interests of both health insurance firms and healthcare providers. Numerous industry executives, including Humana's Medicare President, have noted that value-based model has benefits for providers/insurers, including noticeably higher contribution margins, thus pushing up incentives for consolidation. Not surprisingly, these dynamics have spurred a number of acquisitions of healthcare providers by major health insurers. CVS is currently buying health care platform provider Signify Health (Sep'22), UNH is scooping up home care provider LHC Group (announced in Mar'22) and HUM has already acquired home healthcare provider Kindred at Home (Aug'21). The industry has also seen increasing M&A activity from non-insurers entering the space, including Amazon (AMZN) acquiring primary care company One Medical (announced in Jul'22, by the way CVS was one of the bidders there as well) and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) purchasing a majority stake in primary care provider VillageMD (Oct'21). These dynamics and the fact that CANO might be an attractive target have also been recently reiterated by CANO's CEO: I expect continued consolidation and acceleration in the paradigm shift of value-based care. And what this means for us is yet another validation of how attractive our asset is and the industry as a whole. A Potential acquisition would make strategic sense for either of the rumored buyers HUM, UNH or CVS given CANO's extensive presence in Florida's primary care market. CANO is reportedly the largest independent value-based primary care provider to Medicare/Medicaid patients in the state. Meanwhile, three potential suitors currently rank as the three largest primary care insurers in the Florida. Humana and Cano have seemingly deep ties - HUM has been invested in Cano Health prior to CANO's IPO and still owns an undisclosed stake. Currently, CANO is HUM's biggest independent primary care provider in Florida. Interestingly, as part of their earlier agreement, HUM has a right of first refusal, meaning that HUM can match any acquisition offer made for CANO. Notably, HUM has significantly expanded its investment in primary senior care in the last five years, recently stating that the TAM is very large at $700bn. As part of its joint venture with PE firm Welsh Carson, Humana now aims to open 100 new CenterWell senior primary care clinics in the next three years. From the CEO's remarks during Q2'22 earnings call: We do see some great opportunity today, both CenterWell primary care and the home are agnostic and continue to see great growth, serving both other payers and other parts of the Medicare system. And at the same time, we're also seeing opportunity within our primary - within our pharmacy area to offer some agnostic opportunities there. So the ability for it to integrate and also to expand beyond the Medicare side of the business is really at the heart of what you see us more formally creating the CenterWell service side, while on the insurance side, continuing to leverage the efficiencies across the various different insurance platforms. Meanwhile, CVS's management, in addition to the recent acquisition of Signify Health, has recently stated that their priority is the same - to expand into the primary care segment: From Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conf: Well I think we are urging, obviously - we're very urging, I just ask our teams and I think if you think about our strategy, really we've been very clear that we want to extend into care delivery and we're starting with Signify. We can't always determine the order. Obviously primary care is something we believe we need to advance because we really want to enable consumers to have a differentiate experience and improve health outcomes. So we're playing our game. From the CVS Q2'22 earnings call: As you would expect, we are being very disciplined both strategically and financially, as we pursue kind of our M&A strategy. We can't be in the primary care without M&A. We've been very clear about that. Valuation Chart Comp Filings At current price levels, CANO seems undervalued on a TTM/2022E revenue basis relative to larger peers OSH (also owns and operates primary care centers) and AGL (runs primary care physician networks so not as comparable). Moreover, recently announced ONEM and SGFY acquisitions were done at noticeably higher multiples. Activist Owl Creek notes the following reasons for why CANO might be trading at a discount to peers/industry transactions: Unfortunately, Cano has consistently traded at a discount to its peers due to its SPAC heritage, its hybrid model (owned and operated medical centers along with affiliates), and heavy concentration in the South Florida market. One could argue for some discount due to one or more of these factors, but the valuation discrepancy between Cano and peers is highly punitive. Another activist Third Point also agrees that the undervaluation is explained by both SPAC heritage and the company's shareholder base (given dual class structure and high insider ownership): However given recent developments at the Issuer and taking into account the market's largely unfavorable view of companies taken public through special purpose acquisition vehicles, the Reporting Persons believe the Board of Directors should immediately engage financial and legal advisors to commence a review of strategic alternatives. […] The Reporting Persons believe this strategic review should focus on a sale of the Issuer, and that a properly run sales process is likely to result in offers representing a substantial premium to the Issuer's trading price. The Reporting Persons believe that the Issuer is unlikely to achieve such valuation on a stand-alone basis, in part due to structural issues with its shareholder base. The activist Owl Creek has stated that CANO has been undervalued by the market despite having higher 2022E revenues than both OSH/AGL and being on track to exceed 2022 membership/revenue/EBITDA guidance. Using a 3x revenue multiple based on peers OSH/AGL and Amazon's acquisition of ONEM, Owl Creek arrives at an acquisition price tag of $14/share. The markets have moved down a bit since the letter was written, so a 3x multiple would now translate to a $13/share price. More background on CANO Historical financials are provided below: Table Company Filings Financially, since going public in 2020, CANO has managed to record high revenue growth - 93% in 2021. Notably, the growth has to a large degree been driven by acquisitions, including purchase of University Health Care and Doctor's Medical Center for a total of $900m (announced in Jun'21 and Jul'21). This has allowed the company to significantly increase its patient base as number of memberships has expanded from 156k to 282k over the last year. That said, the business is yet to turn profitable and is still burning cash - $135m in 2021 operating losses. From a liquidity perspective, the company is quite highly levered with $878m in net debt (compared to $4.2bn market cap). Given CANO's business model, the company needs extensive capital to accelerate further growth. At current share price levels, any equity raise would seem highly dilutive given that even after the buyout rumors the stock trades below pre-2022 levels of $9-$16/share. CANO's shares are rather tightly held with 55% of the voting power (Class A + Class B shares) held by the management + insiders. CANO went public in 2020 through a SPAC backed by Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht who now holds 9% voting power. Another 33% of total shares are owned by a PE firm InTandem Capital Partners which has backed the company since 2016. Both Sternlicht and InTandem's managing partner Elliot Cooperstone currently sit on CANO's board. Interestingly, Cooperstone was previously the CEO of Prodigy Health Group which was acquired by Aetna, a subsidiary of CVS Health. Another 17% are held by six institutional investors, including FMR (7%), BlackRock (3%) and Millennium Asset Management (2%), among others. Risks According to the activist Owl Creek, last year CVS stated that the company had well over $10bn to deploy towards strategic initiatives related to value-based care. With the SGFY acquisition, the company will spend around $7bn, potentially implying that the management might not be willing to pursue another large acquisition. This risk, however, seems limited given CVS's overall large gross cash position ($15bn in cash + investments) and the fact that SGFY captures a slightly different market niche than CANO - it is a healthcare platform which does not own and operate health centers. Management/insiders not agreeing to sell their stake. That said, considering prominent activist pressure, current market turbulence and the fact that the company is yet to inflect towards profitability, an offer at $14/share - a share price close to 2021 highs - could seal the deal. Conclusion CANO presents a very interesting investment opportunity with a short potential timeline. I believe that prominent activist involvement and industry consolidation dynamics point to a company sale brewing up behind the scenes. Importantly, risk/reward seems to be highly favorable here, suggesting that investors might consider CANO as a long position in their portfolios.

By Amruta Khandekar (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes fell on Monday, bogged down by a drop in shares of Apple and other megacaps, while investors braced for a hefty rate hike from the Federal Reserve this week and assessed the path of future interest rates. The U.S. Fed is set to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, where policymakers are expected to deliver a fourth straight 75-basis point interest rate hike to curb decades-high inflation. Communication from Fed officials after the decision as well as well as non-farm payrolls data this week will offer further clues on whether the central bank could tone down its aggressive stance on interest rates in the future. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) dropped 2.1% in early trading. A Reuters report said production of its iPhones could slump by as much as 30% next month due to tightening COVID-19 curbs in China. Shares of other megacaps including Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Google-owner Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Meta Platforms were down between 0.8% and 3%. Among sectors, information technology and communication services were the lead decliners, falling 1.6% and 1.9% respectively. Hopes for a less hawkish Fed as well as better-than-expected earnings from companies outside the technology sector had led to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, notching their second straight week of gains on Friday. Both the indexes are also set to record gains in October after two straight months of declines. The Dow Jones, meanwhile, could see its biggest monthly rise in over four decades depending on the day's moves. "You have a convergence of the labor market and the Fed together, and so it should make it a very questionable market week in terms of the direction," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. "We'll be hearing from Fed Chair Powell on Wednesday and his words probably mean more than his actions. If his tone, if his language begins to moderate somewhat, that will continue to be positive for stocks." Traders are nearly equally split in their expectations of the Fed delivering a smaller interest rate hike at its next policy meeting, with odds of a 50 basis point rate hike in December standing at 47.9%, according to CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) Fedwatch tool. Along with the Fed, U.S. mid-term elections will also set the tone for markets in November. At 10:14 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 184.99 points, or 0.56%, at 32,676.81, the S&P 500 was down 33.15 points, or 0.85%, at 3,867.91, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 145.57 points, or 1.31%, at 10,956.88. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.65-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and 1.56-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 10 new 52-week highs and five new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 63 new highs and 47 new lows. Among single stocks, TuSimple Holdings plunged 45% after the trucking firm said its board terminated its chief executive officer.

By Amruta Khandekar and Shreyashi Sanyal (Reuters) -Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq index fell nearly 2% on Wednesday as disappointing results and warnings from Microsoft and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) sparked losses in megacap companies and raised fears of slowing economic growth. Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) posted its lowest sales growth in five years and forecast second-quarter revenue below Wall Street estimates, while Alphabet reported downbeat ad sales and warned of a slowdown in advertising spending. Shares of both companies fell over 6% each in premarket trading and weighed on Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), which are scheduled to report results later this week. They were down 3.5% and 0.9% respectively. "Microsoft results point to this idea that corporate IT budgets are coming under pressure and Alphabet missing estimates speaks to perhaps a consumer that is potentially running out of steam and both point to a slowing economy," said Josh Wein, portfolio manager at Hennessy Funds. Shares of ad revenue dependent social media firms Meta Platforms fell 4.4%, while Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) dropped 3.9%. U.S.-listed shares of Spotify (NYSE:SPOT) Technology lost 5.9% as margins came under pressure from a slowdown in ad growth, while Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) fell 5% after the chipmaker gave a bleak fourth-quarter outlook on lower demand. The extensive weakness in the tech sector comes despite a drop in the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which fell for the second straight day on rising bets over a slowdown in the pace of interest-rate hikes. [US/] Expectations of a less-hawkish Federal Reserve have helped Wall Street's main indexes notch three straight sessions of gains, but downbeat earnings and forecasts suggested the Fed's rapid interest rate hikes are slowing the economy. The U.S. central bank is expected to deliver its fourth 75 basis-point hike in its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting against the backdrop of recent data pointing to economic softness. "I don't see this Fed as one that's going to look at one data point and say we're getting close to the end, so 75 bps is probably baked in for December," Wein said. Analysts have set the bar low for third-quarter reporting season, with aggregate S&P 500 earnings growth seen at 3.3% year-on-year, down from 4.5% at the start of the month, according to Refinitiv data. At 8:26 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 70 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 31.75 points, or 0.82%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 213.5 points, or 1.82%. Dow component Boeing (NYSE:BA) Co slid 0.7% as its ailing defense unit recorded a $2.8 billion charge, while Visa Inc (NYSE:V) rose 1.7% after the payments processor topped quarterly profit estimates on strong travel demand. Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) Co gained 2.5% after the packaged food maker beat third-quarter sales estimates, helped by higher product prices.

By Ankika Biswas (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes jumped on Monday as Bank of America led gains among lenders after reporting better-than-expected results that were underpinned by the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hikes. Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC) rose 4.53% as the lender benefited from higher net interest income in its third quarter, even though it added $378 million to its loan-loss reserves. "BAC benefited from a higher interest rate environment in both the yields on the newly issued loans and the growth of the number of depositors," said Siddharth Singhai, chief investment officer of New York-based investment firm Ironhold Capital. "This is a direct result of higher interest rates offered by the banks looking very attractive compared to other risk assets. Lending will slow down quite a bit over the upcoming quarters, so a better reserve ratio would buttress them from a huge drop in demand." Bank of NY Mellon (NYSE:BK) Corp also benefited from higher rates, sending its shares up 5.64%. Overall, higher rates boosted interest incomes for lenders in the third quarter but turbulent markets choked off dealmaking and banks set aside more funds to brace for an economic slowdown. The S&P 500 banks index was up 3.14%. All the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes were higher with technology, communication services and consumer discretionary leading with near 3% gains each. Shares of Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), which will post results on Tuesday, were up 2.23%, following reports of a plan to combine its investment banking and trading businesses. Major megacap growth stocks like Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Meta Platforms Inc, Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc added about 3% and 4% each as the yield on U.S. 10-year bonds retreated from multi-year highs. [US/] Tesla Inc, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) are also expected to report results later in the week. Analysts now expect profit for S&P 500 companies to have risen just 3.6% from a year ago, much lower than an 11.1% increase expected at the start of July, according to Refinitiv data. At 9:47 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 585.88 points, or 1.98%, at 30,220.71, the S&P 500 was up 89.71 points, or 2.50%, at 3,672.78, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 314.33 points, or 3.05%, at 10,635.72. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq marked their fourth weekly loss in five on Friday, after data showed little signs that inflation was cooling, prompting traders to start pricing in the chances of a 1% hike by the Federal Reserve in its November rate-setting meeting. Fox News parent Fox Corp slipped 6.31% after Rupert Murdoch started a process that could reunite his media empire, News Corp (NASDAQ:NWSA) and Fox disclosed on Friday, a decade after the companies split. Shares of News Corp gained 5.4%. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 13.90-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 5.82-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week high and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 46 new highs and 46 new lows.

One in five federal officials trade stock in companies their agencies oversee Oct. 13, 2022 at 1:22 p.m. ET by Rebecca Ballhaus

By Shreyashi Sanyal and Bansari Mayur Kamdar (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures pared gains on Wednesday after data showed producer prices increased more than expected in September, in another hot inflation reading that boosted bets of more jumbo-sized interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The Labor Department's producer prices index rose 8.5% in the 12 months through September, slightly higher than an estimated 8.4% rise. The reading was still lower than and 8.7% increase in August. "It's stubborn and some people are hoping that we had peak inflation and it's going to come down quickly," said Joe Saluzzi, partner at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. "It is not going to be that way. That's what the Fed has been looking at and that's why they're raising rates the way they are. So this will take time and this is not going to be a quick thing." Persistent inflation has sparked worries about the Fed's aggressive monetary action tipping the world's largest economy into a recession. Money markets are pricing in a 92% chance of another 75-basis-point hike in November. [FEDWATCH] Still, Wall Street's main indexes eyed a bounce following five straight days of declines in the Nasdaq and the benchmark S&P 500 as recent economic data nearly sealed a case for a fourth consecutive 75-basis-point hike by the Fed. Battered megacap companies Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Inc, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Meta Platforms Inc rose between 0.2% and 0.6% in premarket trading. Beaten-down chip shares including Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) Corp, Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) Inc Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ:MU), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) and Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC) also rose between 0.2% and 1%. The United States is scrambling to tackle unintended consequences of its new export curbs on China's chip industry that could inadvertently harm the semiconductor supply chain. A Reuters report showed the Biden administration has allowed at least two non-Chinese chipmakers operating in China to receive restricted goods and services without their suppliers seeking licenses, the report said. At 8:51 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 46 points, or 0.16%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.25 points, or 0.28%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 41.25 points, or 0.38%. PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) Inc gained 2.6% up after the soft-drinks maker raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts on firm demand for its sodas and snacks despite multiple price increases amid rising costs. Investors will also monitor comments from Fed's Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, Washington's Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, and New York's Governor Michelle Bowman.

By Amanda Cooper LONDON (Reuters) -Global shares fell on Monday after a series of explosions in the Ukrainian capital and renewed concern about the economic outlook sent investors into safe-haven assets such as the dollar and bonds. Any belief that the Federal Reserve will shift to a softer stance towards monetary policy was extinguished on Friday by data that showed unemployment fell in September, signalling a labour market that is not suffering from red-hot inflation. The dollar held firm against a basket of currencies, while a number of market-based measures of investor risk nervousness showed another increase. Russian missile strikes during Monday's rush hour across Ukraine killed at least five people in the capital Kyiv, in apparent revenge bombings after President Vladimir Putin declared an explosion on the bridge to Crimea to be a terrorist attack. "I had wondered if markets were looking at the situation in Ukraine and thinking this was moving us toward an end - which was what the first reaction was to the progress that the Ukrainian army had made in the summer. That reaction is no longer happening and this is clearly seen as just an increase in tension, rather than the end of anything," Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) head of currency strategy Kit Juckes said. "We’ve got geopolitical tensions and we’re still on track towards tighter monetary policy in the States and the concern is still by the time they finished tightening, will they have tightened too much and leave the economy looking pretty vulnerable?," he added. The MSCI All-World index fell 0.5% in early trading in Europe, down for a fourth day in a row. The pan-European STOXX 600 fell 0.5% to its lowest in a week, while Germany's DAX lost 0.1% and the FTSE 100 fell 0.7%, making it one of the weaker performing indices. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, while those on the Nasdaq lost 0.6%. Wall Street sank on Friday after an upbeat payrolls report cemented expectations for another large rate hike. Futures imply a more than 80% chance of rates rising by 75 basis points next month, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to match that and the Bank of England to hike by at least 100 basis points. CORE MEASURE U.S. consumer inflation is expected to have moderated to an annual 8.1%, but the core measure is forecast to have accelerated to 6.5% from 6.3%. The U.S. CPI data is due on Thursday. "We are in the midst of the largest and most synchronized tightening of global monetary policy in more than three decades," said Bruce Kasman head of economic research at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), who expects hikes of 75 basis points from all three of the central banks. "The September CPI report should show a moderation in goods prices that is a likely harbinger of a broader slowing in core inflation," he said. "But the Fed will not be responsive to a whisper of inflation moderation as long as labour markets shout tightness." Minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting are also out this week and are likely to sound hawkish given how many policy makers lifted their dot plot forecasts for rates. Although U.S. inflation and the Fed's response to it remain front and centre of investors' minds, euro zone government bonds got a boost from the pickup in investor risk aversion. German 10-year Bund yields, which serve as the region's benchmark, eased 3 basis points to 2.162%, while the more sensitive 2-year Schatz fell 8 bps to 1.787%. Adding another note of caution was 2% drop in Chinese blue-chip stocks , following a survey that showed the first contraction in services activity in four months. EARNINGS TEST Corporate earnings also kick off on Friday, with JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reporting results. "Consensus expects 3% year/year EPS growth, 13% sales growth, and 75 bp margin contraction to 11.8%," analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said in a note. "Excluding Energy, EPS is expected to fall by 3% and margins to contract by 132 bp." "We expect smaller positive surprises in 3Q compared with 1H 2022 and negative revisions to 4Q and 2023 consensus estimates." The dollar index rose 0.3% to 113.14, leaving the euro down 0.4% at $0.9697 and the yen flat at 145.45, a whisker away from the recent 24-year high of 145.90 that prompted Japanese intervention. [USD/] Sterling lost 0.3% to $1.10625, after the Bank of England announced a surprise decision to shore up the gilt market ahead of the end of an emergency bond-buying programme on Friday. [nL8N31B0VI] Oil fell for the first time in a week, as investors took profit on last week's 11% rally after a deal on supply reductions by OPEC+. [O/R] Brent fell 0.7% to $97.26 a barrel, while U.S. crude dropped 0.6% to $92.08 a barrel.

By Amanda Cooper LONDON (Reuters) -Global stocks and bond prices rallied on Tuesday, buoyed by a growing belief among investors that central banks may be on the verge of shifting down a gear in their quest to fight inflation, while UK assets benefitted from a government U-turn on tax cuts. A number of factors have helped douse some of the expectations for policymakers to deliver hefty rate hike after rate hike to quell inflation. A weaker read of U.S. manufacturing data for September, coupled with a retreat in eye-wateringly high European energy prices, and a smaller rate rise by the Australian central bank helped push down borrowing costs around the globe and plumped up investor appetite for risk. With borrowing costs having surged in the last couple of weeks in particular, a number of companies, including Swiss lender Credit Suisse, have found themselves in the line of fire. "The sight of a bond rally when investors smell a whiff of a central bank pivot is something to behold," ING strategists led by Padraig Garvey said. "The root cause of the recent re-pricing lower in rates can be traced back to two factors: the global economic slowdown and resurgent fears for financial stability." The MSCI All-World index was last up 0.9% on the day, while stocks in Europe headed for their biggest one-day rally in over three months, as the Stoxx 600 traded 2.6% higher and London's FTSE gained 1.8%. The pound, meanwhile, rose 0.1% against the dollar to trade at $1.1363, having pared some of the day's gains. Sterling has risen by more than 10% since the mini-budget unveiled by Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng last week triggered alarm across the financial markets. Global bond yields headed lower, with those on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note falling 6 basis points to 3.587%. The yield fell by nearly 20 basis points on Monday, having topped 4.0% just last week. "Noticeably, that move lower was entirely driven by a fall in real yields, with inflation breakevens moving higher on the day, which is again a sign that investors are pricing in a much less aggressive reaction from the Fed," Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn) strategist Jim Reid said in a daily note. DOLLAR RELAXES ITS GRIP With Treasury yields falling, the dollar was on course for a fifth consecutive daily loss against a basket of currencies - its longest streak of declines since August 2021 - as investors began to price in the possibility that tighter credit conditions will make the Federal Reserve tread more carefully. However, some analysts said this optimism may be misplaced. "My firm view, however, is that this will not be the case. While, technically, having a dual mandate, the Fed have effectively become a single-issue central bank; that issue being bringing inflation back to the 2% target," Michael Brown, chief strategist at CaxtonFX, said. "Unless we see a few months of consecutive improvement in inflation data, it's tough to envisage any sort of pivot, with another 75 bps hike remaining my base case for next month's decision. It's tough to be long risk with that on the radar." Markets show investors believe inflation is likely to drop more quickly. On a five-year horizon, investors see inflation at just 2.24%, down from nearer 3% six weeks ago. In Europe, benchmark natural gas prices, which have served as a proxy for inflation, fell to their lowest in two months, which could take some pressure off the European Central Bank. In the UK, Kwarteng on Monday announced the government would back down on a tax cut for top earners that formed part of a package aimed at boosting growth. This measure only makes up a small part of the 45 billion pounds ($51 billion) in unfunded tax cuts, but it was enough to soothe some of the recent angst in the market and, together with emergency bond buying from the Bank of England, sterling was set to make up most of the losses incurred since the mini budget was unveiled on Sept. 23. But the respite seen across the markets on Monday and Tuesday would likely not last, given the bleak outlook for the British economy, analysts said. "The about-face ... will not have a huge impact on the overall UK fiscal situation in our view," said NatWest Markets' head of economics and markets strategy John Briggs. "(But) investors took it as a signal that the UK government could and is at least partially willing to walk back from its intentions that so disrupted markets over the past week." S&P 500 futures rose 1.8%, following a 2.6% bounce for the index overnight, suggesting a second day of gains may be in the offing on Wall Street later. [.N] Oil rallied for a second day, boosted by the prospect of output cuts from the world's biggest exporters, leaving Brent futures up 1.1% at $89.84 a barrel. ($1 = 0.8827 pounds)

SO - the take away from all this is simple.....when any market new hits the headlines, whether its buy now before missing out on this wonderful opportunity, or sell in panic as the markets are set to crash - take a deep breath, count to five, and do the exact opposite - yes it takes courage but this is where the big bucks are made!

**MebFaber:** Five worst years for US stocks and bonds 60/40 last 100 years: NOMINAL 1931: -31% 1937: -22% *2022: -20% 2008: -17% 1974: -15% 1930: -14% DD: -64% REAL *2022:-26% 1974: -25% 1937: -24% 1931: -24% 1946: -20% 2008: -18% DD: -54% *2022 YTD DD=Maximum drawdown https://twitter.com/MebFaber/status/1575516797490511873

The 10-year Treasury yield, a vital benchmark that influences a vast array of consumer borrowing costs, is on its way to hitting 4% for the first time in at least 12 years -- a development that's starting to ripple across financial markets. The rate soared to as high as 3.988% on Tuesday -- more than twice as high as where it started the year -- as financial market participants come on board with the higher-for-longer view on interest rates, driven by central banks' imperative need to bring down inflation. The 10-year rate hasn't been 4% or higher on an intraday basis since April 5, 2010. The last time it finished the New York session at or above that level was in Oct. 15, 2008, according to Tradeweb data.Typically, a rising 10-year yield is seen as a sentiment signal about brighter U.S. economic prospects. This time around, however, "it's a wake-up call that inflation won't be self-curing the way it has been in the last 30 years," said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial in New York. The rate is up five of the past six trading days and is on pace for its largest gain over the first three quarters of a calendar year since 1981. On Monday, it reached a 12-year high of 3.878% before knocking on the door of 4% on Tuesday -- rising closer to levels already reflected elsewhere in the Treasury market.

By Xie Yu HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian markets attempted to stabilise on Tuesday after a wild few days during which most assets, barring the dollar, fell, with the greenback easing a bit and stocks flat. Sterling, which collapsed to a record low $1.0327 on Monday, recovered to $1.0772. S&P 500 futures rose 0.7% and Europe futures rose 0.6%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia shares outside Japan fell 0.3%, the smallest fall in five straight sessions of losses, even if it hit another two-year low. Japan's Nikkei was up by 0.5%. Analysts were doubtful about the outlook, however, as markets - already jittery at the prospect of U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer - have been unnerved by the upheaval in British assets in response to government spending plans. Britain plans tax cuts on top of huge energy subsidies, and a lack of confidence in the strategy and its funding hammered gilts and the pound on Friday and again on Monday. The yield on five-year gilts is up a stunning 100 basis points in two trading days. "(It) is definitely something that's unfolding...probably we're only at a certain initial stage of seeing how the market digests that kind of information," said Yuting Shao, macro strategist at State Street (NYSE:STT) Global Markets. "Of course the tax cut plan itself was really aimed to stimulate growth, reduce household burdens, but it does raise the question of what the implications are in terms of the monetary policies." After the pound's plunge, the Bank of England said it would not hesitate to change interest rates and was monitoring markets "very closely". Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak on a panel at 1100 GMT and will likely be pressed for more details. BEAR TERRITORY Spillover from Britain kept other assets on edge. Bond selling in Japan pushed yields up to the Bank of Japan's ceiling and prompted more unscheduled buying from the central bank in response. [JP/] Wall Street fell deeper into a bear market on Monday, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose more than 20 bps to a 12-year high of 3.933% and the dollar was bid. "There could easily be another leg down as classic signs of market capitulation, such as the VIX Index reaching the key 40 level, have not occurred — although we are getting closer," said Invesco's chief strategist Kristina Hooper. The VIX, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", hit a three-month high of 32.88 on Monday. Investors are watching out for a slew of speeches by central bank officials this week, with the Fed's Charles Evans speaking at 0730 GMT on Tuesday. Expectations are for a small lift to 104.5 from 103.2 in the U.S. Conference Board consumer confidence later in the day. The dollar index on Tuesday eased 0.2% to 113.71, after earlier touching 114.58, its strongest since May 2002. The European single currency was up 0.3% on the day at $0.9636 after hitting a 20-year low a day ago. Oil and gold nursed losses. Gold, which hit a 2-1/2 year low on Monday, rose 0.6% to $1,631 an ounce. Oil lifted slightly from its lowest levels since January. [O/R] U.S. crude ticked up 0.8% to $77.35 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $84.8 per barrel. Bitcoin broke above $20,000 on Tuesday for the first time in about a week, as cryptocurrencies bounced, along with other risk-sensitive assets.

By Tom Westbrook and Alun John SYDNEY/LONDON (Reuters) - Sterling slumped to a record low on Monday, and a renewed selloff in British gilts pushed euro zone yields higher as the fall out from last week's fiscal statement in Britain roiled markets for a second session. Share markets around the world also slid as concerns about high interest rates continued to put pressure on the financial system, though in a rare recent example of a news event having a smaller market impact than feared, reaction to Italy's election result was muted. The pound plunged nearly 5% at one point in Asia trade to break below 1985 lows and hit $1.0327. Moves were exacerbated by thin liquidity in the Asia session, and the currency had last clambered back up to $1.0738. The plunge extended Friday's sell off after markets took fright at British finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng announcing the scrapping of the top rate of income tax and cancelling a planned rise in corporate taxes - on top of a hugely expensive plan to subsidise energy bills. Sterling's declines are partly due to dollar strength - the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six peers - hit a new 20-year top of 114.58 in early trade. Nontheless, the euro, which fell to its own 20-year low on the dollar on Monday briefly hit 92.29 early in the day, its highest since late 2020. The tumble is leading to speculation the Bank of England will have to hold an emergency meeting to raise rates. “The Bank of England is in a very difficult spot where if they don't react they risk another sterling collapse and things getting very messy," said Mike Riddell, senior portfolio manager, Allianz (ETR:ALVG) Global Investors. "If they do react, a developed market hiking rates to defend the currency looks like an emerging market. So they’re damned if they do, damned if they don’t,” The carnage was not confined to currencies. Five-year gilt yields jumped 50 basis points to their highest since October 2008, sending euro zone government bond yields higher. Germany’s 10-year government bond yield hit its highest since December 2011 at 2.132%, (DE10YT=RR) and Italy's benchmark bond yields rose to their highest since 2013. Those moves were largely in line with the overall picture, rather than an outsized response to Sunday's election after which Giorgia Meloni looks set to become Italy's first woman prime minister leading its most right-wing government since World War Two. "There are no big surprises. I expect a relatively small impact considering that the League, the party with the least pro-European stance, seems to have come out weak," said Giuseppe Sersale, fund manager at Anthilia Capital Partners, referring to a separate right-wing party led by Matteo Salvini. "The market knew this was how it was going to end." STRESS BUILDING The pound's plunge is only the latest unnerving move as investors' skittishness strains global financial markets. Two-year Treasury yields broke above 4.3% to a new 15-year high, while U.S. S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, suggesting the index could fall below its June bottom to its lowest since late 2020. Europe's STOXX 600 index slipped for the third straight session, falling to a new low since December 2020, dragged down particularly by recession vulnerable sectors such as commodity stocks and mining Asian stocks also fell, and oil and gold were under pressure due to the surging greenback. Gold touched a 2-1/2 year low of $1,626.4 and Brent crude futures were down about 1% having earlier fallen to their lowest since January at $84.51 a barrel. "There has been an economic logic at play, as central banks raised rates to drive monetary policy into restrictive territory, get below trend growth for a while, - a polite way of saying a recession - and then you get lower inflation," said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier. "The question is whether the financial world can go through that sequence. It feels like we are reaching the limit of that, things are starting to break, for example what we see with sterling."

**M_McDonough:** UMich Consumer Sentiment -- scheduled to be released at 10AM -- is expected to continue benefiting from lower gasoline prices. Here is the index with contributions from the five primary questions: {from ECAN} https://t.co/tSykPGi0i0 https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1570744236085227530

five years is the statute of limitations for international crime haha

**valuewalk:** These Were the Five Best and Worst Performing Small-Cap Stocks in August 2022 https://t.co/R6vALrfteX #247 #marketbeat https://twitter.com/valuewalk/status/1566585540123959297

**valuewalk:** These Are The Five Best And Worst Performing Penny Stocks Of 2022 (So Far) https://t.co/TYKESqLU4p #247 #marketbeat https://twitter.com/valuewalk/status/1566270841993965568

By Devik Jain and Bansari Mayur Kamdar (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures jumped on Friday after data showed stronger-than-expected jobs growth in August but cooling wage increases and a rise in unemployment rate that eased some concerns about inflation. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed nonfarm payrolls increased by 315,000 jobs last month after surging 526,000 in July. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% compared with expectations of 0.4%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged up to 3.7% from a pre-pandemic low of 3.5%. While the data bolstered views that the U.S. economy is on a strong footing, it eases some pressure on the Federal Reserve looking to cool down labor demand and the overall economy to bring inflation back to its 2% target. The slower-than-expected growth in wages adds to recent data that suggests prices pressures were easing, with focus now turning toward the August consumer price report due mid-month for clues on the next rate increase. "The basic message is labor market might be starting to cool and the Fed might not have to move so aggressively," said David Page, head of macroeconomic research at AXA Investment Managers. Traders see a 75% chance of a third straight 75 basis points rate hike in September and expects rates to peak at 3.90% in March 2023. Fears of aggressive policy tightening have gripped Wall Street recently, with the S&P 500 sliding nearly 5.6% in the last five sessions in the wake of a unanimous hawkish view by policymakers on rate hikes. All the three main indexes are set for a third straight weekly loss, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq down 2.9%. At 8:43 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 151 points, or 0.48%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 21.75 points, or 0.55%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 64.75 points, or 0.53%. Rate-sensitive technology and growth stocks such as Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) Corp and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) jumped in premarket trading as U.S. Treasury yields slipped after the report.

By Dhara Ranasinghe LONDON (Reuters) - World stocks slumped on Monday as the growing risk of more aggressive interest rate hikes in the United States and Europe inflicted fresh pain on bond markets and pushed the dollar to new 20-year highs, just as recession fears mount. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, said the Fed would raise rates as high as needed to restrict growth, and keep them there "for some time" to bring down inflation running well above its 2% target. European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel added to market unease. She warned on Saturday that central banks risk losing public trust and must act forcefully to curb inflation, even if that drags their economies into a recession. As investors woke up to the reality that rates would stay higher for longer even as recession risk grows, two-year U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest since 2007. [US/] European stocks slumped to their lowest level in almost six weeks and were last down over 1%. U.S. stock futures were deep in the red and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei slid over 2.5% London markets were closed for a holiday, while MSCI's world equity index fell 0.7% to a one-month low. "The message from Jackson Hole was loud and clear and not what markets were expecting," said Nordea chief analyst Jan von Gerich. "Central banks need convincing evidence that inflation is coming down. That is bad news for the economy and risk appetite and raises the risk of a deeper recession if we get more rapid rate hikes." Investors ramped up U.S. and euro zone rate hike bets, with markets pricing in a greater chance of 75 basis point hikes from the Fed and ECB in September. Fed funds futures priced in as high as a 73% chance the Fed will hike by 75 bps, and see rates peaking at 3.75% to 4.0%. "Markets are focusing on discussing the message of 'coordinated tightening' from Jackson Hole as ECB and Fed appear to have re-committed to creating price stability: yields are shooting higher and risk assets are quite a bit lower since last week," said Lars Sparreso Lykke Merklin, senior analyst at Danske Bank. Much might depend on what U.S. August payrolls figures show this Friday. Analysts are looking for a moderate rise of 285,000 following July's blockbuster 528,000 gain. HUNKER DOWN As investors hunkered down for front-loaded rate hikes, key gauges of equity market volatility shot up. The CBOE Volatility index, widely dubbed Wall Street's fear index, rose to its highest since mid-July. The euro STOXX volatility index, the European equivalent, jumped to its highest level in six weeks. The aggressive chorus from central banks lifted short-term yields globally, while further inverting the Treasury curve as investors priced in an eventual economic downturn. [US/] Two-year U.S. yields surged to around 3.49%, the highest since late 2007 and far above the 10-year at 3.13%. Yields also jumped across Europe. [GVD/EUR] This all benefited the safe-haven dollar, which briefly shot to a fresh two-decade peak at 109.48 against a basket of major currencies. The dollar hit a five-week peak on the yen and was last up 0.7% at 138.65, with bulls looking to re-test its July top of 139.38. Sterling sank to a 2-1/2-year low around $1.1649 as Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) warned the UK was heading for recession. The euro dropped to as low as $0.99145, not far from last week's two-decade trough of $0.99005, but was last up 0.25% at $0.9988 The Dutch September gas delivery contract dropped as much as 11% as Germany's economy minister said he expects prices to fall soon as Germany is making progress on its storage targets, with facilities nearly 83% full and set to hit its 85% Oct. 1 target in early September Supply fears pushed natural gas futures in Europe 38% higher last week, adding further fuel to the inflation bonfire as a three-day halt to Russian natural gas supplies through its main pipeline to Europe will start on Wednesday. [NG/EU] German benchmark power prices, meanwhile, breached 1,000 euros per megawatt hour for the first time on Monday. "I struggle to understand the sense of sharp (ECB) interest rate hikes. The big problem is energy supply, and right now it doesn't look we can get out any time soon," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest in Milan. "Such a sharp rise in such a complicated economic picture will put companies and households in a very difficult situation. Trading volumes are really thin. I think it would be worth sell into any rally even though the word rally doesn't seem appropriate." The rise of the dollar and yields has been a drag for gold, which was last down 0.5% at $1,729 an ounce. [GOL/] Oil prices swung higher on speculation OPEC+ could cut output at a meeting on Sept 5. Brent rose 26 cents to $101.25, while U.S. crude firmed 42 cents to $93.47.

**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [August 26, 2022]: CL Game Plan** AUGUST 26, 2022 — FRIDAY AM The ES and NQ could be headed back to wCL above if they can find strong lows this morning. However, with Fed Chair Powell on deck, in addition to a slew of economic data, we could see headline risk that leads to increased volatility. Crude Oil may be headed much lower today. Bears are defending 94s for a shot at a 3.50 to 4.00 move lower, with targets between 90 and 90.50. BTC and ETH are developing very narrow ranges over the recent five days, which could lead to major expansion soon.

By Alun John HONG KONG (Reuters) - The euro was at a two-decade low, stocks languished and German bond yields hit an eight-week high on Wednesday as investor sentiment soured under the weight of high energy prices, a batch of poor global economic data, and more inflation fears. Renewed concerns central banks will keep hiking interest rates aggressively to tame red hot inflation were also high on investors' minds ahead of the closely-watched Jackson Hole central banking symposium which begins on Thursday. The European common currency tumbled 0.4% against the dollar to $0.9925, trading just above its 20 year intraday low hit a day earlier. Sterling suffered too, losing 0.52%. The risk-off mood could also be seen in share markets where the MSCI world equity index, dipped 0.2% to a three week low. Britain's FTSE100 shed 0.5%, though gains from defensive stocks helped the pan-European stocks index STOXX 600 to advance 0.2% after touching a four-week low in early trade. Moves were due to "the combination of the Fed and other central banks sticking with their inflation mandate, and at the same time the latest economic indicators showing signs of weakness not just in Europe, but also in the U.S. and Japan," said Tai Hui, chief market strategist for Asia at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) Asset Management. Wednesday is fairly quiet on the data front, but poor economic activity reports the previous day from the euro zone - which reported a contraction for a second straight month - the United States and Japan, continued to hurt appetite for riskier assets, such as stocks. Energy prices are also a factor, with Dutch gas contracts, the benchmark for Europe, regaining previous day's losses and trading near their five-and-a-half month high hit on Monday. [NG/EU] Energy costs are a major driver of inflation, and expectations the European Central Bank will step up its rate hikes to bring it under control helped push Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark for the block, to a fresh eight-week high of 1.38%. Markets are also now repricing their expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes after speculation their pace could slow boosted stocks early in the month. "Maybe two or three weeks ago, markets were thinking the Fed may be done with hiking rates by the end of this year and cutting rates in 2023, and that sequence of events now doesn't look like it's happening," Hui said. That shift had pushed the yield on U.S. benchmark 10 year treasuries back above 3% early in this week, he added. It was last 3.0573%. Traders have been raising their expectations on where the Fed funds rate might peak, with current pricing pointing toward around 3.7% in the middle of 2023. CHINA SLIDE China provided another reason for concern about the global economy, with a slide in property stocks serving as another reminder of the deep hole that developers are in without access to easy credit. An index of Hong Kong listed builders fell to a 10-year low. (HK) "People are still trying to understand the full extent of the detrimental effects as it has multiple repercussions," said Samuel Siew, a market specialist at CGS-CIMB in Singapore. "It's still very hard to actually measure the entire severity of the situation. That is what markets are trying to decipher, and whether ongoing support is sufficient." Oil recovered from early losses. Brent crude futures rose 0.9% to $101.1 a barrel - still affected by talk of Saudi supply cuts. U.S. crude futures gained 1% to $94.75. [O/R] Spot gold held steady at $1,747 an ounce. Bitcoin still bore the scars from a sudden slide at the end of last week, parked at $21,300.

By Balazs Koranyi FRANKFURT (Reuters) - It was meant to be Europe's stellar year. A post-pandemic spending euphoria, supported by copious government spending was set to drive the economy and help fatigued households regain a sense of normality after two dreadful years. But all that changed on Feb. 24 with Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Normality is gone and crisis has become permanent. A recession is now almost certain, inflation is nearing double digits and a winter with looming energy shortages is fast approaching. Though bleak, this outlook is still likely to get worse before any significant improvement well into 2023. "Crisis is the new normal," says the Alexandre Bompard, the Chief Executive of retailer Carrefour (EPA:CARR). "What we have been used to in the last decades - low inflation, international trade - it's over," he told investors. The change is dramatic. A year ago most forecasters predicted 2022 economic growth near 5%. Now a winter recession is becoming the base case. " onerror="this.style.display='none'" class="msg-img" /> Households and businesses are both suffering as the fallout of the war - high food and energy prices - is now exacerbated by a devastating drought and low river levels that constrain transport. At 9%, inflation in the euro area is at levels not seen in a half a century and it is sapping purchasing power with spare cash used up on petrol, natural gas and staple food. Retail sales are already plunging, months before the heating season starts and shoppers are scaling down their buys. In June, retail sales volumes were down nearly 4% from a year earlier, led by a 9% drop recorded in Germany. Consumers turn to discount chains and give up high end products, switching to discount brands. They have also started to skip certain purchases. "Life is becoming more expensive and consumers are reluctant to consume," Robert Gentz, the co-CEO of German retailer Zalando, told reporters. Businesses have so far coped well thanks to superb pricing power due to persistent supply constraints. But energy intensive sectors are already suffering. Close to half of Europe's aluminium and zinc smelting capacity is already offline while much of fertilizer production, which relies on natural gas, has been shut. Tourism has been the rare bright spot with people looking to spend some of accumulated savings and enjoy their first care-free summer since 2019. But even the travel sector is hamstrung by capacity and labour shortages as workers laid off during the pandemic were reluctant to return. Key airports, such as Frankfurt and London Heathrow were forced to cap flights simply because they lacked the staff to process passengers. At Amsterdam's Schiphol, waiting times could stretch to four or five hours this summer. Airlines also could not cope. Germany's Lufthansa had to publish an apology to customers for the chaos, admitting that it was unlikely to ease anytime soon. RECESSION LOOMS That pain is likely to intensify, especially if Russia cuts gas exports further. "The gas shock today is much greater; it is almost double the shock that we had back in the 70s with oil," Caroline Bain at Capital Economics said. "We've seen a 10 to 11 fold increase in the spot price of natural gas in Europe over the last two years." While the EU has unveiled plans to accelerate its transition to renewable energy and wean the bloc off Russian gas by 2027, making it more resilient in the long run, supply shortages are forcing it seek a 15% cut in gas consumption this year. But energy independence comes at a cost. For ordinary people it will mean colder homes and offices in the short run. Germany for instance wants public spaces heated only to 19 degrees Celsius this winter compared with around 22 degrees previously. Further out, it will mean higher energy costs and thus inflation as the bloc must give up its biggest and cheapest energy supplies. " onerror="this.style.display='none'" class="msg-img" /> For businesses, it will mean lower production, which eats further into growth, particularly in industry. Wholesale gas prices in Germany, the bloc's biggest economy, are up five-fold in a year but consumers are protected by long term contracts, so the impact so far has been far smaller. Still, they will have to pay a government mandated levy and once contracts roll over, prices will soar, suggesting the impact will just come with a delay, putting persistent upward pressure on inflation. That is why many if not most economists see Germany and Italy, Europe's no. 1 and no. 4 economies with heavy reliance on gas, entering a recession soon. While a recession in the United States is also likely, its origin will be quite different. SILVER LINING Struggling with a red-hot labour market and rapid wage growth, the U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates quickly and has made clear it is willing to risk even a recession to tame price growth. By contrast, the European Central Bank has only increased rates once, back to zero, and will move only cautiously, mindful that raising the borrowing cost of highly indebted euro zone nations, such as Italy, Spain and Greece could fuel worries about the their ability to keep paying their debts. But Europe will go into a recession with some strengths. Employment is record high and firms have struggled with growing labour scarcity for years. This suggests that companies will be keen to hang onto workers, especially since they head for the downturn with relatively healthy margins. This could then sustain purchasing power, pointing to a relatively shallow recession with only a modest uptick in what is now a record low jobless rate. "We see continued acute shortages of labour, historically low unemployment and a high number of vacancies," ECB board member Isabel Schnabel told Reuters earlier. "This probably implies that even if we enter a downturn, firms may be quite reluctant to shed workers on a broad scale."

By Kevin Buckland TOKYO (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hit a fresh five-week high versus major peers on Monday after more Federal Reserve officials flagged the likelihood of continued aggressive monetary tightening ahead of the central bank's key Jackson Hole symposium this week. The euro sank to a new five-week trough after Russia announced a three-day halt to European gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline at the end of this month, exacerbating the region's energy crisis. China's yuan dropped to its lowest in nearly two years after the central bank cut key lending rates, adding to a string of monetary easing measures aimed at shoring up an economy reeling from COVID-19 clampdowns and a property crisis. The Australian and New Zealand dollars rebounded strongly from near five-week lows, helped by firmer commodity prices. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six rivals including the euro, edged up to 108.26 for the first time since July 15 early in the Asian session before trading flat at 108.12. It gained 2.33% last week - its best weekly rally since April 2020 - amid a chorus of Fed policymakers stressing that more needs to be done to rein in decades-high inflation. The latest was Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin on Friday, saying the "urge" among central bankers was towards faster, front-loaded rate increases. "Fed speakers have been stressing the message that more rate hikes are coming given the fight against inflation has not yet been won," rattling markets ahead of Jackson Hole on Aug. 25-27, amid growing expectations for Fed Chair Jerome Powell to stress that tightening is "still a long way from the end," Rodrigo Catril, senior FX strategist at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY), wrote in a client note. Money markets currently indicate 46.5% odds for another supersized 75 basis point rate hike on Sept. 21, with a 53.5% chance for a half-point rise. Economists in a Reuters poll lean toward a 50 basis-point increase with recession risks on the rise. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose above 3% on Monday for the first time since July 21. Against Japan's currency, which is extremely sensitive to U.S. yields, the dollar climbed as high as 137.44 yen, the strongest since July 27. The dollar rose as high as 6.8308 yuan in onshore trading for the first time since September 2020 after the People's Bank of China cut the one- and five-year loan prime rates, as widely expected. That came after it eased other key borrowing benchmarks in a surprise move last week. Against the offshore yuan, the dollar hit 6.8520, also the strongest since September 2020. The commodity-linked Aussie gained 0.39% to $0.6902 - rebounding after a slide to $0.68595 on Friday for the first time since July 19 - as Dalian iron ore rallied more than 2% and copper also rose. The kiwi advanced 0.4% to $0.61995 after declining to $0.61675 at the end of last week, also a first since July 19. Meanwhile, the euro dipped as low as $1.0026 for the first time since July 15 before trading flat at $1.0040. Sterling was little changed at $1.18325, remaining not far from Friday's five-week low of $1.17925. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel told German newspaper Rheinischen Post that the German economy, among the most exposed to disruptions in Russian gas supply, is "likely" to suffer a recession over the winter if the energy crisis continues to deepen. But he added that even if a German recession is increasingly probable, the European Central Bank must keep raising rates to tame inflation. "Time back below parity looks inevitable" for the euro, although it may bounce around either side of that mark in the short term rather than falling strongly through it, Westpac strategists wrote in a research note.

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By Elizabeth Howcroft LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar rose on Friday but was still set for a weekly decline as traders looked for signs of U.S. inflation peaking. U.S. inflation figures on Wednesday and Thursday were lower than expected, boosting riskier assets such as equities and weakening the dollar, as markets interpreted the data as indicating the Fed could be less aggressive in rate hikes. But Fed officials made clear they would continue to tighten monetary policy. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Thursday she was open to the possibility of another 75 basis point (bp) hike in September to fight too-high inflation. At 1047 GMT, the dollar index was up 0.4% on the day at 105.520, changing course after four days of losses that have put it on track for a weekly decline of 1%. The yen lost out to the dollar's strength, with the U.S. unit up 0.5% against the Japanese currency at 133.62. Traders were pricing in around a 36.5% chance of a 75 bps Fed rate hike in September and a 63.5% chance of 50 bps. "We think it will take far more evidence of slowing core inflation to temper Fed tightening," Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC, said in a note to clients. "Inflation is also a global problem not just a U.S. one, and so global growth and inflation dynamics will also drive the USD," Mackel said. "The likes of the ECB (European Central Bank) and the BoE (Bank of England) may still find it hard to match market pricing for rate hikes, creating downside pressures for EUR and GBP." Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY), said dollar trading was likely to remain "choppy". “It’s not going to be going significantly weaker in a straight line because there’s still a danger than the market has to reprice terminal Fed funds higher, given there’s still plenty of inflation,” Juckes said. GDP CONTRACTION The British pound was down 0.8% at $1.212 versus the strong dollar. UK GDP contracted by less than feared in June, even though an extra public holiday had been expected to cause a big drag. The euro was down 0.3% at $1.0291. French inflation was up 6.8% year-on-year in July, while for Spain the figure was 10.8%, the highest since 1984, data showed. The euro has been weighed down by Europe's struggles with the war in Ukraine, the hunt for non-Russian energy sources, and a hit to the German economy from scant rainfall. Low water levels on the Rhine, Germany's commercial artery, have disrupted shipping and pushed freight costs up more than five-fold. Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG) said in a note to clients it had revised its euro-dollar forecast lower, as it expects a euro-area recession as a base scenario, having previously been a "risk scenario". Commerzbank expects the euro to fall to $0.98 in December and to not recover until later in 2023. Inflation in Sweden eased to 8% year-on-year in July, which ING said may lessen expectations for a massive Riksbank rate hike in September. "After a good run in July, we doubt the Swedish krona pushes on too much further against the euro," ING's Turner said. The New Zealand dollar was lifted by expectations of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate rise next week.

By Yimou Lee and Sarah Wu TAIPEI (Reuters) -China deployed scores of planes and fired live missiles near Taiwan on Thursday in its biggest drills in the Taiwan Strait, a day after U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a solidarity trip to the self-ruled island. China's military confirmed multiple firings of conventional missiles in waters off Taiwan as part of planned exercises in six zones set to run until noon on Sunday. It activated more than 100 planes, including fighter jets and bombers, and over 10 warships, state broadcaster CCTV said. Taiwan's defence ministry said it scrambled jets to warn away 22 Chinese fighter aircraft that crossed the Taiwan Strait median line into its air defence zone, and said troops fired flares late on Thursday to drive away four drones that flew above the area of its Kinmen islands, off the southeastern coast of China. It said missiles fired by China flew high into the atmosphere and constituted no threat to it, responding to public concern about whether they passed over the main island of Taiwan. Japan protested that five missiles appeared to land in its economic zone. "The U.S.-Taiwan collusion and provocation will only push Taiwan towards the abyss of disaster, bringing catastrophe to Taiwan compatriots," said a Chinese defence ministry spokesperson. Responding to the Chinese drills, President Tsai Ing-wen said Taiwan would not provoke conflicts but would firmly defend its sovereignty and national security. "Taiwan will never be knocked down by challenges," Tsai said in a recorded video message to the people of Taiwan. "We are calm and not impetuous, we are rational and not provocative, but we will also be firm and not shirk." The White House condemned China's move as "irresponsible" and said it expected Beijing would continue to react in the coming days. "Beijing's provocative actions are significant escalation and its long standing attempt to change the status quo," U.S. national security spokesperson John Kirby (NYSE:KEX) told a briefing. To avoid escalating tensions further, the United States has postponed a long-planned test of an Air Force Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile, Kirby said. HACKER ATTACKS Taiwan said 11 Chinese Dongfeng ballistic missiles had been fired in nearby waters - the first time since 1996. Taiwan officials said the drills violated United Nations rules, invaded its space and threatened free air and sea navigation. It has been self-ruled since 1949, when Mao Zedong's communists took power in Beijing after defeating Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang (KMT) nationalists in a civil war, prompting the KMT-led government to retreat to the island. The military activity followed Pelosi's unannounced visit of support to Taiwan in defiance of warnings from China. Before the drills officially began, Chinese navy ships and military aircraft briefly crossed the Taiwan Strait median line several times on Thursday, a Taiwanese source briefed on the matter told Reuters. By midday, warships from both sides remained in close proximity as Taiwan also scrambled jets and deployed missile systems to track Chinese aircraft crossing the line. "They flew in and then flew out, again and again. They continue to harass us," the Taiwanese source said. China, which has long said it reserves the right to take Taiwan by force, says its differences with the island are an internal affair. In Taiwan, life was largely normal despite worries that Beijing could fire a missile over the main island as North Korea did over Japan's northern island of Hokkaido in 2017. "When China says it wants to annex Taiwan by force, they have actually said that for quite a while," said Chen Ming-cheng, a 38-year-old realtor. "From my personal understanding, they are trying to deflect public anger, the anger of their own people, and turn it onto Taiwan." Taiwan said websites of its defence ministry, foreign ministry and the presidential office were attacked by hackers and warned of coming "psychological warfare". 'COMRADE PELOSI' Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Pelosi's visit to Taiwan a "manic, irresponsible and highly irrational" act, state broadcaster CCTV reported. Wang, speaking at a meeting of Southeast Asian foreign ministers in Cambodia, said China had tried to avert crisis by diplomatic means but would never let its core interests be hurt. Unusually, the drills in six areas around Taiwan were announced with a locator map circulated by China's official Xinhua news agency - a factor that for some analysts illustrated playing to both domestic and foreign audiences. In Beijing, security near the U.S. Embassy was unusually tight though there were no signs of significant protests. "I think this (Pelosi's visit) is a good thing," said a man surnamed Zhao in Beijing. "It gives us an opportunity to surround Taiwan, then to use this opportunity to take Taiwan by force. I think we should thank Comrade Pelosi." Pelosi, the highest-level U.S. visitor to Taiwan in 25 years, praised its democracy and pledged American solidarity during her brief stopover. Chinese anger could not stop world leaders from travelling there, she said. "Our delegation came to Taiwan to make unequivocally clear that we will not abandon Taiwan," Pelosi told Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, whom Beijing suspects of pushing for formal independence - a red line for China. China summoned the U.S. ambassador in Beijing in protest and halted several agricultural imports from Taiwan. The United States and the foreign ministers of the Group of Seven nations warned China against using Pelosi's visit as a pretext for military action against Taiwan. The United States has no official diplomatic relations with Taiwan but is bound by U.S. law to provide it with the means to defend itself. Taiwan rejects China's sovereignty claims, saying only the islanders themselves can decide their future. U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres is following the developments closely and with concern, a U.N. spokesperson said.

Makes sense. Thanks for the explanation. > @singletary said: mainly helps me confirm my thesis. if the five chart has the buy arrow and I'm short, I know I'm fighting trend

mainly helps me confirm my thesis. if the five chart has the buy arrow and I'm short, I know I'm fighting trend

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By Madeline Chambers and Can Sezer BERLIN/ISTANBUL (Reuters) -The deal between Moscow and Kyiv to unblock Ukrainian grain exports may offer a way forward to a possible ceasefire in the five-month conflict, said former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, a friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The first grain-carrying ship to leave Ukrainian ports in wartime safely anchored off Turkey's coast on Tuesday and is due to be inspected on Wednesday. "The good news is that the Kremlin wants a negotiated solution," Schroeder told Stern weekly and broadcasters RTL/ntv on Wednesday, adding he had met Putin in Moscow last week. "A first success is the grain deal, perhaps that can be slowly expanded to a ceasefire," he said. Schroeder, chancellor from 1998 to 2005, has criticised the war in Ukraine but refused to condemn Putin. Meanwhile, Russia has accused the United States of being directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine and not just supplying Kyiv with arms. Russia's defence ministry, headed by an ally of Putin, said comments made by Vadym Skibitsky, Ukraine's deputy head of military intelligence, to Britain's Telegraph newspaper showed that Washington was entangled in the conflict. Skibitsky told the paper there was consultation between U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence officials before strikes and Washington had an effective veto on intended targets, but that U.S. officials were not providing direct targeting information. "All this undeniably proves that Washington, contrary to White House and Pentagon claims, is directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine," the Russian defence ministry said in a statement on Tuesday. "It is the Biden administration that is directly responsible for all Kyiv-approved rocket attacks on residential areas and civilian infrastructure in populated areas of Donbas and other regions, which have resulted in mass deaths of civilians." There was no immediate reaction from the White House or Pentagon to the ministry's assertions. The Pentagon did deny, however, Moscow's claims that Russia had destroyed six U.S.-made HIMARS missile systems since the start of the Ukraine war. Russia regularly claims it has hit HIMARS but has yet to show proof. DONBAS: 'JUST HELL' Ukraine's General Staff on Wednesday catalogued continued heavy Russian shelling of Kharkiv and other towns and villages in its vicinity, as well as air and missile strikes on civilian objects. Moscow denies deliberately targeting civilians. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday said that despite arms supplies from the West, his country's forces could not yet overcome Russian advantages in heavy guns and manpower. "This is very much felt in combat, especially in the Donbas. ... It is just hell there. Words cannot describe it." Reuters was not able to verify battlefield reports. Germany's Schroeder said the future of Donbas was complicated. The traditional industrial heartland in Ukraine's east has seen some of the war's heaviest fighting. "A solution based on the Swiss cantonal model will have to be found," he said, adding it would have to be seen if Putin would go back to a pre-war "contact line" in a ceasefire. Switzerland has 26 semi-autonomous cantons or provinces. Solutions to crucial problems such as Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, could be found over time, "maybe not over 99 years, like Hong Kong, but in the next generation", he said. Britain's defence ministry said the rail link connecting Russian-occupied Kherson in southern Ukraine with Crimea was highly unlikely to be operational due to a Ukrainian strike against a Russian ammunition train. Russian forces are likely to repair the railway line in a few days, although it will remain a vulnerability for Russian forces and their logistical resupply route from Crimea into Kherson, Britain said in an intelligence update on Twitter (NYSE:TWTR). Russia sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on Feb. 24 in what it calls a "special military operation". Kyiv and the West have condemned it as an unprovoked war of aggression. At a U.N. conference on Tuesday, Igor Vishnevetsky, deputy director of the department for non-proliferation and arms control of the Russian foreign ministry, refuted all allegations of "unprovoked aggression". He also added that Moscow was convinced a nuclear war "must never be fought". SAFE PASSAGE Meanwhile, a July 22 U.N.-brokered deal to unblock Ukrainian grain exports had an initial success as the first loaded ship since Russia's invasion safely anchored off the Turkish coast. The vessel, the Sierra Leone-flagged Razoni was at the entrance of the Bosphorus Strait, which connects the Black Sea to world markets, around 1800 GMT on Tuesday, some 36 hours after leaving the Ukrainian port of Odesa. The ship, which is carrying 26,527 tonnes of corn to Lebanon, is due to be inspected on Wednesday in Turkey. The exports from one of the world's top grain producers are intended to help ease a global food crisis. Known as Europe's breadbasket, Ukraine hopes to export 20 million tonnes of grain held in silos and 40 million tonnes from the harvest now under way, initially from Odesa and nearby Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk. Russia has called the Razoni's departure "very positive" news. It has denied responsibility for the food crisis, saying Western sanctions have slowed its exports.

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By Florence Tan SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped on Monday, as weak manufacturing data from China and Japan for July weighed on the outlook for demand, while investors braced for this week's meeting of officials from OPEC and other top producers on supply adjustments. Brent crude futures were down 82 cents, or 0.8%, at $103.15 a barrel at 0608 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $97.44 a barrel, down $1.18, or 1.2%. Fresh COVID-19 lockdowns snuffed out a brief recovery seen in June for factory activity in China, the world's largest crude oil importer. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) eased to 50.4 in July from 51.7 in the previous month, well below analysts' expectations, data showed on Monday. Japanese manufacturing activity expanded at its weakest rate in 10 months in July, data showed on Monday. "China's disappointing manufacturing PMI is the primary factor that pressed on oil prices today," CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng said. "The data shows a surprising contraction of economic activities, suggesting that the recovery of the world-second-largest economy from the covid lockdowns may not be as positive as previously expected, which darkened the demand outlook of the crude oil markets." Brent and WTI ended July with their second straight monthly losses for the first time since 2020, as soaring inflation and higher interest rates raise fears of a recession that would erode fuel demand. ANZ analysts said fuel sales to drivers in Britain were waning, while gasoline demand remained below its five-year average for this time of the year. Reflecting this, analysts in a Reuters poll reduced for the first time since April their forecast for 2022 average Brent prices to $105.75 a barrel. Their estimate for WTI fell to $101.28. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on Wednesday to decide on September output. Two of eight OPEC+ sources in a Reuters survey said a modest increase for September would be discussed at the Aug. 3 meeting, while the rest said output would likely be held steady. The meeting comes after U.S. President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia last month. "While President Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia produced no immediate oil deliverables, we believe that the Kingdom will reciprocate by continuing to gradually increase output," RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said in a note. The start of August sees OPEC+ having fully unwound record output cuts in place since the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in 2020. The group's new secretary general, Haitham al-Ghais, reiterated on Sunday that Russia's membership in OPEC+ is vital for the success of the agreement, Kuwait's Alrai newspaper reported. Meanwhile, U.S. oil production continued to climb as the rig count rose by 11 in July, increasing for a record 23rd month in a row, data from Baker Hughes showed. [RIG/U] A break for Brent prices below key support level of $102.68 could trigger a drop into the range of $99.52 to $101.26, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said. [TECH/C]

(Reuters) - Moscow's military "tasks" in Ukraine now go beyond the eastern Donbas region, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Wednesday, as the Kremlin's forces shelled eastern and southern Ukraine. Lavrov also told state news agency RIA Novosti that Russia's objectives will expand still further if the West keeps supplying Kyiv with long-range weapons such as the U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). His comments, the clearest acknowledgment yet that Russia's war goals have expanded over the five months of war, came after Washington said it saw signs Moscow was preparing to formally annex territory it has seized in its neighbour. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meanwhile accused Russia of "blackmailing" the European Union over energy, as she unveiled a plan to slash gas demand in the bloc ahead of a feared cut-off of deliveries by Russia as winter approaches. Russian President Vladimir Putin had earlier warned that gas supplies sent to Europe via the huge Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which has been closed for 10 days for maintenance, were at risk of being reduced further. Lavrov is the most senior figure to speak openly of Russia's war goals in territorial terms, nearly five months after Putin launched his Feb. 24 invasion with a denial that Russia intended to occupy its neighbour. Then, Putin said his aim was to demilitarise and "denazify" Ukraine - a statement dismissed by Kyiv and the West as a pretext for an imperial-style war of expansion. Lavrov told RIA Novosti geographical realities had changed since Russian and Ukrainian negotiators held peace talks in Turkey in late March that failed to produce any breakthrough. At that time, he said, the focus was on the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR), self-styled Russian-backed breakaway entities in eastern Ukraine from which Moscow has said it aims to drive out Ukrainian government forces. "Now the geography is different, it's far from being just the DPR and LPR, it's also Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and a number of other territories," he said, referring to territories well beyond the Donbas that Russian forces have wholly or partly seized. "This process is continuing logically and persistently," Lavrov said, adding that Russia might need to push even deeper. After being beaten back in an initial attempt to take the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, Russia's defence ministry said on March 25 that the first phase of its "special military operation" was complete and it would now focus on "achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbas". Nearly four months later, it has taken Luhansk, one of two regions that make up the Donbas, but remains far from capturing all of the other, Donetsk. In the past few weeks it has ramped up missile strikes on cities across Ukraine. On Wednesday, the Ukrainian military and politicians reported heavy and sometimes fatal Russian shelling amid what they said were largely unsuccessful attempts by Russian ground forces to advance. Citing U.S. intelligence, White House national security spokesman John Kirby (NYSE:KEX) had earlier accused Russia of laying the groundwork to annex Ukrainian territory it has seized since the start of the war, an assertion the Russian embassy in Washington said mischaracterised what Moscow was trying to do. Russia's invasion has killed thousands, displaced millions and flattened cities, particularly in Russian-speaking areas in the east and southeast of Ukraine. It has also raised global energy and food prices and raised fears of famine in poorer countries as Ukraine and Russia are both major grain producers. There have been more than 9.5 million border crossings from Ukraine since Feb. 24, the UN Refugee Agency reported on Wednesday. EUROPE GETS READYIn Washington, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the United States will send four more HIMARS artillery systems to Ukraine, in its latest military package to bolster Kyiv. With uncertainty swirling over the planned restart on Thursday of Nord Stream 1, the European Union proposed its 27 member countries cut gas demand by 15% from now until spring. Warning that without deep cuts members could struggle for fuel during winter if Russia cuts off supply in retaliation for the bloc's support of Ukraine, the executive Commission said that target could be made binding in an emergency. "Russia is blackmailing us. Russia is using energy as a weapon," Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, describing a full cut-off of Russian gas flows as "a likely scenario" for which "Europe needs to be ready". Sources have told Reuters that Nord Stream 1, the single largest link for Russian gas supplies to Europe, is expected to restart as scheduled on Thursday after 10 days of annual maintenance work, but at reduced capacity. Speaking after a visit to Tehran, Putin said the capacity of Nord Stream 1 could be reduced due to problems with other pumping units, one of which would need to be sent for maintenance on July 26. He said Russian energy giant Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) was ready to fulfil its obligations on gas exports. Gazprom cut exports through the route to 40% capacity last month, citing delays in the return of a turbine Siemens Energy was servicing in Canada, which had initially banned the equipment's return, citing sanctions. Putin said on Wednesday it was not clear in what condition the turbine would be returned after repairs in Canada and that there was a risk that the equipment could be switched off halting the flow of gas through Nord Stream. Russia, the world's largest gas exporter and second-largest crude oil supplier, has denied Western accusations of using its energy supplies as a tool of coercion, saying it has been a reliable energy supplier. Ukraine's western creditor governments meanwhile urged bondholders to accept Kiev's request for a two-year delay on its debt payments and said they would suspend payments owed to them.

By Alun John HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares were pinned at two-year lows on Thursday after white-hot U.S. inflation data drove fears the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates even more aggressively, which boosted the safe haven dollar. Underscoring how inflation pressures are also hitting Asia, both the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas surprised markets by tightening monetary policy on Thursday in off cycle moves. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat by early afternoon. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.4% and S&P 500 futures reversed early losses to trade 0.1% lower. Chinese blue chips rose 0.5% a day after data showed China's June exports rose at the fastest pace in five months as factories revved up after the lifting of COVID lockdowns. China will release June activity data on Friday along with second quarter GDP. "With the prospect of the Chinese economy exiting its darkest period in Q2 into a more stable second half, and with the prospect of monetary support versus tightening in the rest of the world, Chinese stocks seem attractive in relative terms compared to other asset classes and global equities," said Carlos Casanova, senior economist for Asia at UBP. Nonetheless, in a sign China is not yet out of the woods, reports that a growing number of homebuyers are threatening to stop making mortgage payments caused Chinese banking and property names to fall. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.7%, as the yen's weakness against the dollar boosted exporters, and good jobs figures helped Australian stocks to gain 0.43%. INFLATION FEARS Everything in Asia, however, was taking place in the shadow of U.S. data overnight showing rising costs of fuel, food and rent drove the consumer price index (CPI) up 9.1% last month. This sparked worries that the Fed could raise rates by an enormous 100 basis points (bps) at its meeting this month rather than the 75 bps that had been expected, adding to investors' fears of a possible recession. "The concerning aspect in the CPI numbers was the breadth of increases," said Shane Oliver, chief economist and chief investment strategist at AMP (OTC:AMLTF), who said nearly 90% of the U.S. CPI components saw increases of more than 3%. Market pricing on the CME's Fedwatch tool currently indicates a 78% chance of a 100 bps increase, though Oliver said this could be a knee-jerk reaction to the high CPI reading. "I personally think the Fed will stick to 75 - which is still a high number - if they go to 100 it will look like they are panicking. "Only time will tell, though. The Fed does have an unconditional commitment to get inflation back down." U.S. two-year yields, which reflect interest rate expectations, were last at 3.2027%, just off an overnight four-week high, increasing their lead on U.S. benchmark 10 year yields which were at 2.9558%. So-called yield curve inversion, when short-dated interest rates are higher than longer ones, is commonly seen as an indicator of a recession, and the gap between the two touched 25 basis points in Asia trade. In currency markets, the euro was hovering back just above parity with the dollar at $1.00155. It briefly dipped to $0.9998 overnight, breaking below $1 for the first time since December 2002. The European Central Bank must decide whether to let the currency fall further, pushing up already record high inflation, or fight back with more rapid interest rate hikes and so increase the damage to an economy already hit hard by high energy costs. The dollar was also firm against other majors, rising over 138 yen for the first time since September 1998.. The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six majors, was holding firm at 108.45. Oil prices rose, with Brent breaking above $100 a barrel as worries about tight supplies outweighed the prospect of a slower economy. Brent crude futures rose 0.7%, to $100.27 a barrel, and U.S. crude rose 0.57% to $96.81. Gold faced heavy selling pressure as higher rates hurt the non-interest-bearing asset. The spot price was down 0.4% at $1,728 an ounce.

*NY Fed: June Three-Year-Ahead Expected Inflation at 3.6% From May 3.9% *NY Fed: June Five-Year-Ahead Expected Inflation at 2.8%% From May 2.9% *NY Fed: June One-Year-Ahead Expected Inflation at Record 6.8% From May 6.6% -- WSJ

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AS MEASURED BY BREAKEVENS ON FIVE-YEAR TIPS FALL TO 2.49%, LOWEST SINCE NOV. 2021

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Global share markets started in haphazard fashion on Monday as soft U.S. data suggested downside risks for this week's June payrolls report, while the hubbub over possible recession was still driving a relief rally in government bonds. The search for safety kept the U.S. dollar near 20-year highs, though early action was light with U.S. markets on holiday. Cash Treasuries were shut but futures extended their gains, implying 10-year yields were holding around 2.88% having fallen 61 basis points from their June peak. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat, after losing 1.8% last week. Japan's Nikkei added 0.6%, while South Korea fell 0.8%. Chinese blue chips edged up 0.3%, though cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 curbs on Sunday amid new coronavirus clusters. EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.5% and FTSE futures 0.8%. However, both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures eased 0.7%, after steadying just a little on Friday. David J. Kostin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), noted that every S&P 500 sector bar energy saw negative returns in the first half of the year amid extreme volatility. "The current bear market has been entirely valuation-driven rather than the result of reduced earnings estimates," he added. "However, we expect consensus profit margin forecasts to fall which will lead to downward EPS revisions whether or not the economy falls into recession." Earnings season starts of July 15 and expectations are being marked lower given high costs and softening data. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's much watched GDP Now forecast has slid to an annualised -2.1% for the second quarter, implying the country was already in a technical recession. The payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show jobs growth slowing to 270,000 in June with average earnings slowing a touch to 5.0%. RATES UP, THEN DOWN Yet minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting on Wednesday are almost certain to sound hawkish given the committee chose to hike rates by a super-sized 75 basis points. The market is pricing in around an 85% chance of another hike of 75 basis points this month and rates at 3.25-3.5% by year end. "But the market has also moved to price in an increasingly aggressive rate cut profile for the Fed into 2023 and 2024, consistent with a growing chance of recession," noted analysts at NAB. "Around 60bps of Fed cuts are now priced in for 2023." In currencies, investor demand for the most liquid safe harbour has tended to benefit the U.S. dollar, which is near two-decade highs against a basket of competitors at 105.100. The euro was flat at $1.0429 and not far from its recent five-year trough of $1.0349. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates this month for the first time in a decade, and the euro could get a lift if it decides on a more aggressive half-point move. The Japanese yen also attracted some safe haven flows late last week, dragging the dollar back to 135.23 yen from a 24-year top of 137.01. A high dollar and rising interest rates have not been kind to non-yielding gold, which was pinned at $1,812 an ounce having hit a six-month low last week. [GOL/] Fears of a global economic downturn also undermined industrial metals with copper hitting a 17-month low having sunk 25% from its March peak. [MET/L] Oil prices wobbled as investors weighed demand concerns against supply constraints. Output restrictions in Libya and a planned strike among Norwegian oil and gas workers were just the latest blows to production. [O/R] Brent slipped 1 cent to $111.62, while U.S. crude eased 10 cents to $108.33 per barrel. (Reorting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes & Shri Navaratnam)

**pkedrosky:** On this point, and related revenge effects: Saw someone talking other day about how EVs are changing so fast that they are onto their fifth such car in five years, "just to stay on top of it". My friend, you're doing it ... catastrophically wrong. https://t.co/GPeTK5GKMX https://twitter.com/pkedrosky/status/1542621254246510592

reminder link https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-top-five-russell-index-companies-51655988292

https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-top-five-russell-index-companies-51655988292