$GDP

Goodrich Petroleum Corp.

  • NYSE MKT LLC
  • Energy Minerals
  • Integrated Oil

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$23.02 -

Extented Hours

VOLUME

148,486

DAY RANGE

- 23.02

52 WEEK

8.61 - 26.66

Join Discuss about GDP with like-minded investors

TR
@trademaster #TradeHouses
an hour ago

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Global share markets started in haphazard fashion on Monday as soft U.S. data suggested downside risks for this week's June payrolls report, while the hubbub over possible recession was still driving a relief rally in government bonds. The search for safety kept the U.S. dollar near 20-year highs, though early action was light with U.S. markets on holiday. Cash Treasuries were shut but futures extended their gains, implying 10-year yields were holding around 2.88% having fallen 61 basis points from their June peak. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat, after losing 1.8% last week. Japan's Nikkei added 0.6%, while South Korea fell 0.8%. Chinese blue chips edged up 0.3%, though cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 curbs on Sunday amid new coronavirus clusters. EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.5% and FTSE futures 0.8%. However, both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures eased 0.7%, after steadying just a little on Friday. David J. Kostin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), noted that every S&P 500 sector bar energy saw negative returns in the first half of the year amid extreme volatility. "The current bear market has been entirely valuation-driven rather than the result of reduced earnings estimates," he added. "However, we expect consensus profit margin forecasts to fall which will lead to downward EPS revisions whether or not the economy falls into recession." Earnings season starts of July 15 and expectations are being marked lower given high costs and softening data. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's much watched GDP Now forecast has slid to an annualised -2.1% for the second quarter, implying the country was already in a technical recession. The payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show jobs growth slowing to 270,000 in June with average earnings slowing a touch to 5.0%. RATES UP, THEN DOWN Yet minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting on Wednesday are almost certain to sound hawkish given the committee chose to hike rates by a super-sized 75 basis points. The market is pricing in around an 85% chance of another hike of 75 basis points this month and rates at 3.25-3.5% by year end. "But the market has also moved to price in an increasingly aggressive rate cut profile for the Fed into 2023 and 2024, consistent with a growing chance of recession," noted analysts at NAB. "Around 60bps of Fed cuts are now priced in for 2023." In currencies, investor demand for the most liquid safe harbour has tended to benefit the U.S. dollar, which is near two-decade highs against a basket of competitors at 105.100. The euro was flat at $1.0429 and not far from its recent five-year trough of $1.0349. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates this month for the first time in a decade, and the euro could get a lift if it decides on a more aggressive half-point move. The Japanese yen also attracted some safe haven flows late last week, dragging the dollar back to 135.23 yen from a 24-year top of 137.01. A high dollar and rising interest rates have not been kind to non-yielding gold, which was pinned at $1,812 an ounce having hit a six-month low last week. [GOL/] Fears of a global economic downturn also undermined industrial metals with copper hitting a 17-month low having sunk 25% from its March peak. [MET/L] Oil prices wobbled as investors weighed demand concerns against supply constraints. Output restrictions in Libya and a planned strike among Norwegian oil and gas workers were just the latest blows to production. [O/R] Brent slipped 1 cent to $111.62, while U.S. crude eased 10 cents to $108.33 per barrel. (Reorting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes & Shri Navaratnam)

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@lucullus #droscrew
2 hours ago

latest update on GDP this qtr, now showing down 2.1%. WTF is going on.

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@NoobBot #Crypto4Noobs
recently

**M_McDonough:** Contributions to U.S. GDP Growth: (Overall negative, but the important bits are still positive -- Consumption and Investment) https://t.co/Q60yzsVDGw https://twitter.com/M_McDonough/status/1542129392805085186

147 Replies 13 πŸ‘ 6 πŸ”₯

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@CarlosH-carvan #ivtrades
recently

USA GDP (QoQ) for Q1 (1.600)% vs (1.500)% Est; Prior (1.500)%

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@dros #droscrew
recently

*S&P: GDP Growth Will Slow to Just 1.6%--Well Below Estimated Potential Growth Rate of Around 2%--Given Continued Higher Prices and Borrowing Costs *S&P Now Forecasts a Low-Growth Recession in 2023 *S&P: Unemployment Rate Will Climb 70 Bps to 4.3% by the End of 2023

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@Navneet #droscrew
recently

Top Economic Announcements This Week a. Durable Goods Orders Reported Monday @8:30 AM EST b. Dallas FED Manufacturing Survey Released Monday @10:30 AM EST c. International Trade in Goods Reported Tuesday @8:30 AM EST d. FHFA House Price Index Reported Tuesday @9 AM EST e. Consumer Confidence Reported Tuesday @10 AM EST f. Richmond FED Manufacturing Index Released Tuesday @10 AM EST g. FED Mary Daly Speaks Tuesday @12:30 PM EST h. FED Loretta Mester Speaks Wednesday @6:30 AM EST i. GDP Reported Wednesday @8:30 AM EST j. Corporate Profits Reported Wednesday @8:30 AM EST k. Jerome Powell Speaks Wednesday @9 AM EST l. State Street Investor Confidence Index Released Wednesday @10 AM EST m. Survey of Business Uncertainty Released Wednesday @11 AM EST n. Jobless Claims Reported Thursday @8:30 AM EST o. Personal Income & Outlays Reported Thursday @8:30 AM EST p. ISM Manufacturing Index Reported Friday @10 AM EST @everyone

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@dros #droscrew
recently

"Our worst fears around the Fed have been confirmed: they fell way behind the curve and are now playing a dangerous game of catch up. We look for GDP growth to slow to almost zero, inflation to settle at around 3% and the Fed to hike rates above 4%" BofA

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@lucullus #droscrew
recently

no recession according to this, yet next GDP number probably confirms a recession πŸ€”

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@Traderbiasa #forexvoxio
recently

GDP bulan maret diproyeksikan akan naik 2.8%

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@Marcosx #ivtrades
recently

In Fiscal Year 2021, federal spending was equal to 30% of the total gross domestic product (GDP), or economic activity, of the United States that year

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NE
@newb_trader #StockTraders.NET
recently

I hear people saying that all of this has already been priced in. But I do agree that this is not all clear situation like the covid crash and subsequent govt/fed measures > @Math said: we know GDP growth is slowing, end of QE, fed raising rates to control inflation...

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@Math #StockTraders.NET
recently

we know GDP growth is slowing, end of QE, fed raising rates to control inflation...

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OB
@ObiTrader #tradeobi
recently

**The ECB is ready to hike interest rates** ECB’s chief economist Phillip Lane confirmed in an interview to the Spanish media outlet Cinco Dias that the central bank will likely hike by 25 basis points interest rates either in July or in September depending on the evolution of inflation and growth (the first estimate of the eurozone Q1 GDP will be released one day before the July ECB meeting). He also indicated that the central bank plans to exit negative rates by the end of the third quarter. This is basically what ECB president Christine Lagarde mentioned last week.

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TR
@trademaster #TradeHouses
recently

By Andrew Galbraith SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Asian share markets slipped on Thursday on persistent concerns over growth in China and worries about the Federal Reserve's intent to tighten policy quickly, confirmed in minutes of the early May rate-setting meeting released overnight. While Wall Street closed higher after the minutes, which showed a majority of Fed policymakers backed half-percentage-point rate hikes in June and July along with a unanimous view the economy was strong, the mood was subdued in Asia. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.6%, taking losses for the month to 5%. Australian shares were down 0.47%, while Japan's Nikkei stock index slid 0.17%. In early European trading, the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were down 0.14%, as were German DAX futures. "It's very difficult for investors to navigate this market at the moment with high inflation, slower growth, rising interest rates and concerns about the Chinese (COVID-19) predicament, but also stagflation is looming as a potential issue at the same time," said Ryan Felsman, a senior economist at fund manager CommSec. The falls in Asia contrasted with a more upbeat mood on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%, the S&P 500 gained 0.95% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.51%. [.N] All participants at the Fed's May 3-4 meeting supported a half-percentage-point rate increase - the first of that size in more than 20 years - and "most participants" judged that further hikes of that magnitude would "likely be appropriate" at the Fed's policy meetings in June and July, according to minutes from the meeting While some investors worry that overly aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed could tip the economy into recession, Wednesday's minutes seemed to suggest the Fed would pause its tightening streak to assess the impact on growth. The immediate attention is on Thursday's Commerce Department release of its second take on first-quarter GDP, which analysts expect to show a slightly shallower contraction than the 1.4% quarterly annualised drop originally reported. "The Fed will be crossing their fingers for Q1 GDP to be upwardly revised today, because another print of -1.4% or worse could exacerbate concerns of stagflation," Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at broker City Index, wrote. Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea's central bank raised interest rates for a second consecutive meeting as it grapples with consumer inflation at 13-year highs. Chinese blue-chips fell initially, but recovered as the day progressed after a drop in daily COVID-19 cases in the country, where lockdowns aimed at curbing the spread of the virus threaten to undermine recent economic support measures. Mainland markets also seemed to seek relief in commments from Premier Li Keqiang on Wednesday that China will strive to achieve reasonable economic growth in the second quarter and stem rising unemployment. After rising on Wednesday following the Fed minutes, the dollar was little changed in Asia trade. It was barely changed against the yen at 127.30, while the euro was almost flat at $1.0675. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major peers was just 0.13% higher at 102.20. Moves in U.S. Treasury yields were also muted. The 10-year yield edged up to 2.781% and the policy-sensitive two-year yield was flat at 2.502%. Crude oil was steady after a cautious rally this week, with Brent crude flat at $114.03 per barrel and U.S. crude up 0.13% at $110.47. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,849.19 per ounce. [GOL/]

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TR
@trademaster #TradeHouses
recently

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares slid on Tuesday as relief at a rally on Wall Street was punctured by a retreat in U.S. stock futures, while the euro held near one-month highs as odds narrowed on a July rate rise from the ECB. After ending Monday firmer, Nasdaq futures lost 1.5%, with traders blaming an earnings warning from Snap (NYSE:SNAP) which saw shares in the Snapchat owner tumble 28%. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.9%, surrendering some of Monday's 1.8% bounce. EUROSTOXX 50 futures fell 0.5% and FTSE futures 0.6%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.8% in hesitant trading. Japan's Nikkei fell 0.8% and Chinese blue chips 1.1%. Markets had taken some comfort from U.S. President Joe Biden's comment on Monday that he was considering easing tariffs on China, and from Beijing's ongoing promises of stimulus. Unfortunately, China's zero-COVID policy, with attendant lockdowns, has already done considerable economic damage. "Following disappointing April activity data, we have downgraded our China GDP (gross domestic product) forecast again and now look for 2Q GDP to contract 5.4% annualised, previously β€’1.5%," warned analysts at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM). "Our 2Q global growth forecast stands at just 0.6% annualised rate, easily the weakest quarter since the global financial crisis outside of 2020." Early surveys of European and U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers for May due on Tuesday could show some slowing in what has been a resilient sector of the global economy. Japan's manufacturing activity grew at the slowest pace in three months in May amid supply bottlenecks, while Toyota announced a cut in its output plans. Analysts have also been trimming growth forecasts for the United States given the Federal Reserve seems certain to hike interest rates by a full percentage point over the next two months. The hawkish message is likely to be driven home this week by a host of Fed speakers and minutes of the last policy meeting due on Wednesday. The European Central Bank is also turning more hawkish, with President Christine Lagarde surprising many by opening the door for a rate rise as early as July. That saw the euro at $1.0665, having bounced 1.2% overnight in its best session since early March. It now faces stiff chart resistance around $1.0756. The dollar also retreated versus sterling and a range of currencies, taking the dollar index down 0.9% overnight. It was last up a fraction at 102.240. Meanwhile the euro had jumped sharply to 136.05 Japanese yen, while the dollar faded a little to 127.65 yen. The pullback in the dollar helped gold regain some ground to $1,855 an ounce. [GOL/] Oil prices were caught between worries over a possible global downturn and the prospect of higher fuel demand from the U.S. summer driving season and Shanghai's plans to reopen after a two-month coronavirus lockdown. [O/R] U.S. crude eased 66 cents to $109.63 per barrel, while Brent lost 70 cents to $112.74.

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@gcaps #Zona Trading
recently

Encontre porque de 70 al 80 el stock market no se inflo en comparacion el GDP y fue porque hubo inflacion pero tanto el crecimiento de la economia crecio tanto como la inflacion y como el stock market

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@gcaps #Zona Trading
recently

pero mientras mantengan el GDP casi estatico o cercano a 0%

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@gcaps #Zona Trading
recently

pero el crecimiento de 2010 a 2021 es insostenible, porque es un mercado expeculativo, el GDP de usa no respalda sus valuaciones, ni cerca

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@gcaps #Zona Trading
recently

en los 80s hubo inflacion, sin embargo el GDP to stock market ratio no era malo

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TR
@trademaster #TradeHouses
recently

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian share markets stumbled on Monday and oil prices slid after shockingly weak data from China underlined the deep damage lockdowns are doing to the world's second-largest economy. China's April retail sales plunged 11.1% on the year, almost twice the fall forecast, while industrial output dropped 2.9% when analysts had looked for a slight increase. "The data paint a picture of a stalling economy and one in need of more aggressive stimulus and a rapid easing of COVID restrictions, neither of which are likely to be forthcoming anytime soon," said Mitul Kotecha, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities. "China's weaker growth trajectory will add to pressure on its markets and fuel a further worsening in global economic prospects, weighing on risk assets. We expect further CNY depreciation." In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 and FTSE futures both eased 0.3%. S&P 500 stock futures lost early gains to drop 0.6%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%. Both are far from last year's highs, with the S&P having fallen for six straight weeks. China's central bank had also disappointed those hoping for a rate easing, though on Sunday Beijing did allow a further cut in mortgage loan interest rates for some home buyers. Monday's data overshadowed news that Shanghai aimed to reopen broadly and allow normal life to resume from June 1. Chinese blue chips shed 0.8% in reaction, while commodity currencies took a knock led by the Australian dollar which is often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost early gains to stand flat, following a slide of 2.7% last week, when it hit a two-year low. Japan's Nikkei clung to gains of 0.5%, having lost 2.1% last week even as a weak yen offered some support to exporters. Sky-high inflation and rising interest rates drove U.S. consumer confidence sink to an 11-year low in early May and raised the stakes for April retail sales due on Tuesday. DOWNGRADING GROWTH A hyper-hawkish Federal Reserve has driven a sharp tightening in financial conditions, which led Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) to cut its 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.4%, from 2.6%. Growth in 2023 is now seen at 1.6% on an annual basis, down from 2.2%. "Our financial conditions index has tightened by over 100 basis points, which should create a drag on GDP growth of about 1pp," said Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius. "We expect that the recent tightening in financial conditions will persist, in part because we think the Fed will deliver on what is priced." Futures imply 50 basis-point hikes in both June and July and rates between 2.5-3.0% by year end, from the current 0.75-1.0%. Fears that the tightening will lead to recession spurred a rally in bonds last week, which saw 10-year yields drop 21 basis points from peaks of 3.20%. Early Monday, yields were easing again to reach 2.91%. The pullback saw the dollar come off a two-decade top, though not by much. The dollar index was last at 104.560, and within spitting distance of the 105.010 peak. The euro stood at $1.0403, having got as low as $1.0348 last week. The dollar did lose ground on the yen, which seemed to get a safe-haven bid in the wake of the China data, slipping to 129.02 yen. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin was last up 2% at $30,354, having touched its lowest since December 2020 last week following the collapse of TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin. In commodity markets, gold was pressured by high yields and a strong dollar and was last at $1,809 an ounce having shed 3.8% last week. Oil prices reversed course as the dire Chinese data rekindled worries about demand. Brent lost $2.31 to $109.24, while U.S. crude shed $2.14 to $108.35.

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TR
@trademaster #TradeHouses
recently

By Marc Jones LONDON (Reuters) - Shares sank to a 1-1/2 year low on Thursday and the dollar hit its highest in two decades, as fears mounted that fast-rising inflation will drive interest rates higher and bring the global economy to a standstill. Those nerves and a German warning that Russia was now using energy supplies as a "weapon" yanked Europe's top markets down 2% (EU) and left MSCI's index of world shares nearly 20% lower for the year. The global growth-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars fell about 0.8% to almost two-year lows. The Chinese yuan slid to a 19-month trough while Europe's worries shoved the euro to its lowest since early 2017.. Nearly all the main volatility gauges were signalling danger. Bitcoin was caught in the fire-sale of risky crypto assets as it fell another 8% to $26,570, having been near $40,000 just a week ago and almost $70,000 last November. "We have had big moves," UBS's UK Chief Investment Officer Caroline Simmons, said referring as well to bond markets and economic expectations. "And when the market falls it does tend to fall quite fast." Tensions were stoked again as Finland confirmed it would apply to join NATO "without delay" in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a war that has already had a major economic effect by driving up global energy and food prices. Data on Wednesday had showed U.S. inflation running persistently hot. Headline consumer prices rose 8.3% in April year-on-year, fractionally slower than the 8.5% pace of March, but still above economists' forecasts for 8.1%. U.S. markets had whipsawed after the news, closing sharply lower as Fed rate hike worries took hold again. Futures prices were pointing to another round of 0.2%-0.7% falls for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial later. [.N] The near 20% drop in MSCI's world stocks index since January is its worst start to a year in recent memory. "We're now very much embedded with at least two further (U.S.) hikes of 50 basis points on the agenda," said Damian Rooney, director of institutional sales at Argonaut in Perth. "I think we probably were delusional six months ago with the rise of U.S. equities on hopes and prayers and the madness of the meme stocks," he added. SELL IN MAY The main pan-Asia Pacific indexes closed down 2.5% at a 22-month low overnight. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.8%, while Indonesian shares and Hong Kong property stocks both slumped more than 3%, as did South Africa's bourse later. (T) The guaranteed returns of bond markets meant U.S. Treasuries were bid, especially at the long end, flattening the yield curve as investors braced for near-term hikes to hurt long-run growth - an outcome that would most likely slow or even reverse rate hikes. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to prices, dropped to 2.82% on Thursday from over 3% at the start of the week, while Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for Europe, fell as much as 15 bps to 0.85%, its lowest in nearly two weeks. "I think a lot of it is catch up from what happened yesterday, and also there's still a lot of negative sentiment in the U.S. Treasury curve," said Lyn Graham-Taylor, senior rates strategist at Rabobank. The prospect of the fastest hike in Fed rates in decades is driving up the U.S. dollar and taking the heaviest toll on riskier assets that shot up through two years of pandemic-era stimulus and low-rate lending. The Nasdaq is down nearly 8% in May so far and more than 25% this year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech index slid 1.5% on Thursday and is off more than 30% this year. Cryptocurrency markets are also melting down, with the collapse of the so-called stablecoin TerraUSD highlighting the turmoil as well as the selling in bitcoin and next-biggest-crypto, ether. A weakening growth picture outside the United States is battering investor confidence, too, as war in Ukraine threatens an energy crisis in Europe and lengthening COVID-19 lockdowns in China throw another spanner into supply chain chaos. Nomura estimated this week that 41 Chinese cities are in full or partial lockdowns, making up 30% of the country's GDP. Heavyweight property developer Sunac said it missed a bond interest payment and will miss more as China's real estate sector remains in the grip of a credit crunch. The yuan fell to a 19-month low of 6.7631 and has dropped almost 6% in under a month. [CNY/] The Australian dollar fell 0.8% to a near two-year low of $0.6879. The kiwi slid by even more to $0.6240. The euro drooped below $1.04 and the yen to 128.5 which kept the dollar index at a two-decade peak. Sterling was at a two-year low of just under $1.22 as well as economic data there caused worries and concerns grew that Britain's Brexit deal with the EU was in danger of unravelling again due to the same old problem of Northern Ireland's border. In commodity trade, oil wound back a bit of Wednesday's surge on growth worries. Brent crude futures fell 2.3% to $104.93 a barrel, while highly growth-sensitive metals copper and tin slumped over 3.5% and 9% respectively. That marked copper's lowest level since October. [MET/L]

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TR
@trademaster #TradeHouses
recently

By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell to an almost two-year low and the dollar rose to multi-year highs on Thursday as data showed U.S. inflation persistently hot, deepening investor worries about the economic toll of aggressive interest rate hikes to tame it. U.S. markets whipsawed after the news, then closed sharply lower. S&P 500 futures gave up early gains to fall 0.2% in the Asia session. European futures also fell, with EuroSTOXX 50 futures down 2% and FTSE futures down 1.6%. Bitcoin, leading a fire-sale of risky assets as rate hikes gather steam, fell 7% to $26,970. It was near $40,000 a week ago and is 60% beneath its peak six months ago. The growth-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars fell about 0.8% to almost two-year lows. The Chinese yuan slid to a 19-month trough. Headline U.S. consumer prices rose 8.3% for the 12 months to April, slower than the 8.5% pace of a month earlier, but higher than market forecasts for 8.1%. Traders said it underscored concern that rates will rise quickly in response. "We're now very much embedded with at least two further (U.S.) hikes of 50 basis points on the agenda. For equity markets that really is the end of free money," said Damian Rooney, director of institutional sales at Argonaut in Perth. "I think we probably were delusional six months ago with the rise of U.S. equities on hopes and prayers and the madness of the meme stocks, and suddenly were going a little bit back to what is reality," he said. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 2% to a 22-month low. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.7%. Treasuries were steady in Asia, but selling at the short end and a rally at the longer end has flattened the yield curve as investors brace for near-term hikes to hurt long-run growth. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points (bps) overnight and dropped a further 2.6 bps in Tokyo trade to 2.8967%. The gap between two-year and 10-year yields narrowed 3.5 bps. "There should be a tipping point in how far the Fed can be pressed before odds clearly point towards a hard landing," said NatWest Markets' U.S. rates strategist Jan Nevruzi. SELL IN MAY The rates outlook is driving up the U.S. dollar and taking the heaviest toll on riskier assets that shot up through two years of stimulus and low-rate lending. The Nasdaq is down nearly 8% in May so far and more than 25% this year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech index slid 1.5% on Thursday and is off more than 30% this year. Cryptocurrency markets are also melting down, with the collapse of the so-called stablecoin TerraUSD highlighting the turmoil as well as the selling in bitcoin and next-biggest-crypto, ether. A weakening growth picture outside the United States is battering investor confidence, too, as war in Ukraine threatens an energy crisis in Europe and lengthening COVID-19 lockdowns in China throw another spanner into supply chain chaos. Nomura estimated this week that 41 Chinese cities are in full or partial lockdowns, making up 30% of the country's GDP. Property developer Sunac China said it missed a bond interest payment and will miss more as China's real estate sector remains in the grip of a credit crunch. The yuan fell to a 19-month low of 6.7631 and has dropped almost 6% in under a month. The Australian dollar fell 0.8% to a near two-year low of $0.6879. The kiwi slid by a similar margin to $0.6240, though the euro and yen held steady to keep the dollar index just shy of a two-decade peak. Sterling was at a two-year low of $1.2204. In commodity trade, oil wound back a bit of Wednesday's surge as growth worries dampened fear of gas supply disruptions in Europe. Brent crude futures fell 1.3% to $106.90 a barrel. British activity and growth data is due later in the day.

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@lucullus #droscrew
recently

But really isnt the more relevant indicator GDP TO EARNINGS. I did that graph out and the stock market has never been cheaper using that metric. It uses GAAP earnings not proforma...if you used that it would be even more remarkable

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@lucullus #droscrew
recently

people love to go on about the buffet indicator.... that is GDP to market cap... but i think this indicator has not stood the test of time as the biggest companies in USA in 1960 sold cars at 10% margin whereas the biggest companies now sell phones and software at 40-60% margin

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@lucullus #droscrew
recently

to be honest i expect GDP number gets revised up.... we are headed for recession.... but market is oversold , rates will not rise as quick and there is money looking for an excuse

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@lucullus #droscrew
recently

The gdp PRINT ENGOURAGES THEM

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@lucullus #droscrew
recently

i was actually long from close last night but that GDP print got me out... need to take profits until we get a decent bottom in this market

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@NoobBot #Crypto4Noobs
recently

Crypto Trading Volume Falls for Sixth Month, US GDP DisappointsΒ + More News https://cryptonews.com/news/crypto-trading-volume-falls-for-sixth-month-us-gdp-disappoints-more-news.htm

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@lucullus #droscrew
recently

why isnt anyone talking about -ve GDP thats a big story

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@stevengo #StockTraders.NET
recently

Let see how the market will react to negative GDP

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@lucullus #droscrew
recently

well not exactly because we havent had 2 negative gdp numbers but market is not going to like that....until rates atrt falling and folks realise Inflation is transitory after all

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@lucullus #droscrew
recently

we just got a negative GDP number...so economy in recession

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@CarlosH-carvan #ivtrades
recently

USA GDP (QoQ) for Q1 (1.400)% vs 1.000% Est; Prior 6.900% -

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@Renato_Decarolis #decarolis
recently

BOOM...BOOM...GDP USA NEGATIVO!

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TR
@trademaster #TradeHouses
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By Stella Qiu and Tom Westbrook BEIJING (Reuters) - Asian shares wobbled on Friday and the Chinese yuan slid as investors fretted about an increasingly aggressive rate-hike outlook for the United States, and the fallout for the global economy from lockdowns in China. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.7% and touched a five-week low, weighed down by a 1.6% loss for Australia's resource-heavy index and a 0.8% drop in South Korean shares. Japan's Nikkei declined 1.6%. The European open is also looking weak, with EuroSTOXX 50 futures down 1.6% and FTSE futures down 1.2%. S&P 500 futures are down 0.1%. Chinese stocks staged a recovery in volatile trade, with the mainland's bluechips reversing early loses to gain 1% on hopes for policy support, but the currency remains under pressure as lockdowns in Shanghai take a bite out of growth. The yuan hit a seven-month low and is on course for its worst week since 2019. Analysts at HSBC expect a comprehensive easing package on all fronts, both monetary and fiscal, from China is needed, including loosening measures in the property sector, which has been hit hard by restrictions on access to credit. "The next key focus will be the China PMI data next week," said Jingyang Chen, a currency analyst at HSBC in Hong Kong, where a negative surprise could drive the yuan lower still. "High frequency data in April has suggested severe supply chain disruptions caused by the virus containment measures in the Yangtze River Delta region, which accounts for almost a quarter of China's GDP." Tech shares in Hong Kong were supported by signs of progress in resolving audit issues that have called into question the U.S. listings of Chinese firms, but rates worries kept most other asset classes on edge. U.S. RATE HIKES On Thursday, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a half-point interest rate increase will be "on the table" when the Fed meets in May, adding it would be appropriate to "be moving a little more quickly." His remarks effectively confirmed market expectations of at least another half-percentage-point rate hike from the Fed next month, and Nomura now expects 75 basis point hikes at its June and July meetings, which would be the biggest of that size since 1994. Selling pressure persisted in bond markets, driving five-year U.S. Treasury yields to 3.04%, the highest late 2018, and two-year yields to a new high of 2.7620%. [US/] Elsewhere, markets were still reeling from comments by European Central Bank officials that the central bank might start hiking euro zone rates as early as July. German two-year yields hit an eight-year high on Thursday. In currency markets the yen steadied on talk of joint Japan-U.S. FX intervention, while the euro has given up Thursday's bounce as nerves about Sunday's French presidential election creep in. The yen last traded at 127.82 per dollar and the euro at $1.0848. Dollar gains drove the Australian and New Zealand dollars to multi-week lows. [FRX/] Oil prices fell on Friday, burdened by the prospect of interest rate hikes, weaker global growth and COVID-19 lockdowns in China hurting demand. Brent crude futures were down $1.30, or 1.2%, at $107.03 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined $1.27, or 1.2%, to $102.52. The looming U.S. rate hikes have weighed on gold. Spot gold was last down 0.02% to $1,951.32 per ounce. Wall Street indexes fell on Thursday, with the S&P 500 down 1.5% and the Nasdaq down 2%.

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By Julie Zhu HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares traded cautiously on Tuesday, with investors weighing China's measures to cushion an economic slowdown and the prospect of aggressive Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening. Investors are also bracing for a barrage of earnings that will help them assess the impact of the Ukraine war and a spike in inflation on company financials. Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) are all to report this week. Moscow has refocused its ground offensive in Ukraine's two eastern provinces but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has vowed to fight on. Early in the Asian trading day, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.5% while U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were up 0.2%. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.66%, as strong commodity prices lifted mining and energy stocks, while Japan's Nikkei rose 0.18%. China's blue-chip CSI300 index was 0.06% higher in early trade while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.24%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index opened down 2.4%, pressured by a slump in tech giants listed in the city amid China's latest regulatory crackdown on the sector. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on Friday it would cut the reserve requirement for all banks by 25 basis points (bps), releasing about 530 billion yuan ($83.25 billion) in long-term liquidity to cushion a slowdown. Investors, however, felt the smaller-than-expected cut might not be enough to reverse a sharp slowdown in the world's No. 2 economy that could significantly affect global growth. China's gross domestic product (GDP) on Monday beat analysts' expectations with a 4.8% increase in the first quarter from a year earlier, while data on March activity showed weakness in consumption, property and exports affected by COVID-19 curbs. Analysts said the key question was whether authorities would make adjustments to the tough anti-COVID-19 measures. "We expect more policy support, mainly in the form of more infrastructure investment, stronger credit growth, and easier property policy. But we do not see the government undertake 'whatever it takes' to achieve the 5.5% growth target, nor shift the Covid policy soon," said Wang Tao, Head of Asia Economics and Chief China Economist of UBS Investment Bank Research. Wall Street ended the day lower in a choppy trading day on Monday, as investors contrasted Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)'s positive quarterly earnings with surging bond yields ahead of further earnings cues this week. A significant cut to global growth expectations from the World Bank, paired with March weakness in China's latest economic numbers injected some pessimism into U.S. markets, which opened Monday following a holiday-shortened previous week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 0.11%, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.02% and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.14%. Markets were closed on Monday in Australia, Hong Kong and many parts of Europe for the Easter holiday. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last at 2.845%, after previously hitting 2.884% earlier on Monday, the highest since December 2018, as investors adjusted for the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 50 basis points at its May and June meetings to contain rapid inflation. The two-year yield, which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 2.4459% compared with a U.S. close of 2.46%. The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's value against six major currencies, was up at 100.88 after surging to 100.86 on Monday, the highest since April 2020. Oil prices were slightly lower on Tuesday, after having been boosted by concerns over tight global supply amid the Ukraine crisis in the previous sessions. U.S. crude dipped 0.57% to $107.59 a barrel. Brent crude fell to $112.7 per barrel. Gold prices steadied on Tuesday, after getting within a stone's throw of the key $2,000 per ounce level in the previous session. Spot gold traded at $1,977.18 per ounce. [GOL/]

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By Kevin Yao and Stella Qiu BEIJING (Reuters) - China's economy slowed in March as consumption, real estate and exports were hit hard, taking the shine off faster-than-expected first-quarter growth numbers and worsening an outlook already weakened by COVID-19 curbs and the Ukraine war. The biggest near-term challenge for Beijing is the tough new coronavirus rules at a time of heightened geopolitical risks, which have intensified supply and commodity cost pressures, leaving Chinese authorities walking a tight rope as they try to stimulate growth without endangering price stability. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 4.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday, beating analysts' expectations for a 4.4% gain and picking up from 4.0% in the fourth quarter. A surprisingly strong start in the first two months of the year improved the headline figures, with GDP up 1.3% in January-March in quarter-on-quarter terms, compared with expectations for a 0.6% rise and a revised 1.5% gain in the previous quarter. Analysts say April data will likely be worse, with lockdowns in commercial centre Shanghai and elsewhere dragging on, prompting some to warn of rising recession risks. "Further impacts from lockdowns are imminent, not only because there has been a delay in the delivery of daily necessities, but also because they add uncertainty to services and factory operations that have already impacted the labour market," said Iris Pang, Greater China chief economist at ING. "We may need to revise our GDP forecasts further if fiscal support does not come in time." China's shares fell, likely reacting to the March numbers and a weak outlook - the blue chip CSI300 index was down 0.6%, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.5%. WORSENING RETAIL SALES, JOBLESS RATE Data on March activity showed retail sales contracting the most on an annual basis since April 2020 on widespread COVID curbs across the country. They fell 3.5%, worse than expectations for a 1.6% decrease and an increase of 6.7% in January-February. The job market is already showing signs of stress in March, a usually robust month for labour market as factories resume hiring after the Lunar New Year holiday. China's nationwide survey-based jobless rate stood at 5.8% in March, the highest since May 2020, while that in 31 major cities hit a record 6.0%. The industrial sector held up better with production expanding 5.0% from a year earlier, compared with forecasts for a 4.5% gain. That was down from a 7.5% increase in the first two months of the year. Fixed asset investment, a driver of growth that Beijing is counting on to underpin the economy, increased 9.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, compared with an expected 8.5% increase but down from 12.2% growth in the first two months. Analysts at Capital Economics and Nomura believe the official GDP figures may have understated the slowdown last quarter. Capital Economics says growth in services production index for Q1 does not align with the expansion of the services sector in the GDP data, while Nomura said some of the March data, such as industrial production, are hard to reconcile with many other indicators of industrial activity. Home sales by value in March slumped 26.2% year-on-year, the biggest drop since January-February 2020, according to Reuters calculations, pointing to a deepening downturn in the property market. 'HIGHLY COSTLY' COVID-19 CURBS The government's determination to stop the spread of record COVID-19 cases has clogged highways and ports, stranded workers and shut factories - disruptions that are rippling through global supply chains for goods from electric vehicles to iPhones. The contribution from net exports to GDP growth fell to 3.7% in the first quarter from 26.4% in the fourth as momentum ebbed. Fu Linghui, a NBS spokesman, acknowledged the increase in downward economic pressure. "We will step up the implementation of macro policies, make every effort to stabilise the economic fundamentals, and strive to achieve the targets and tasks for the year," Fu told a news conference. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on Monday it would step up support for industries, firms and people hit by COVID-19 in its latest move to cushion them from the impact of economic slowdown. Late on Friday, the PBOC said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the first time this year, releasing about 530 billion yuan ($83.25 billion) in long-term liquidity, although the reduction missed expectations. Analysts see less room for more China rate cuts, after the smaller-than-expected RRR reduction, which they say reflected the PBOC's concern about inflation and U.S. monetary tightening. "The government faces a dilemma: how to balance economic growth and containing the outbreaks. Locking down large cities like Shanghai is highly costly," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. "Such costs will become more visible in coming months."

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China Q1 GDP tops forecast, but March weakness raises outlook risks

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By Alun John HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares retreated on Thursday, in line with a global selloff, as markets were spooked by more aggressive noises from U.S. policymakers about the need for tighter monetary policy, which also kept the dollar near a two-year peak. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.17% to its lowest level in a week, while Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.9%. European and U.S. share futures also fell. EUROSTOXX 50 futures eased 0.2%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.37% and Nasdaq futures fell 0.35%. "The whole political and policy stance in the U.S. has shifted, and markets are starting to get that," said Redmond Wong, a market strategist at Saxo Markets Hong Kong. "Attention has really moved towards quantitative tightening after all those Fed speakers and the minutes yesterday, and the objective is to tighten financial conditions and depress aggregate demand. I think the Fed is willing to accept some softness and wants to cool down the labour market, unlike in the past, when they wanted to protect it." Minutes of the Fed's March 15-16 meeting released on Wednesday, showed deepening concern among policymakers that inflation had broadened through the economy. U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said on Tuesday she expects rapid reductions to the central bank's balance sheet. Wong said that in the long run positive real interest rates would be good for the global economy, but in the medium term there would be a repricing of assets. Overnight all three major U.S. benchmarks fell, with the Nasdaq Composite worst hit, losing 2.22%. [.N] Also on investors' minds was growing economic strains in China, which is grappling with new outbreaks of COVID-19. Shanghai, currently under a city-wide lockdown, reported nearly 20,000 new cases on April 6 - the vast majority asymptomatic - the local government said on Thursday. Nomura estimated on Tuesday that a total of 23 Chinese cities have implemented either full or partial lockdowns, which collectively are home to an estimated 193 million people and contribute 22% of the country's GDP. Chinese blue chips shed 0.9%, and Hong Kong stocks lost 1.3%, weighed by declines in large Chinese tech firms U.S. Treasuries had sold off sharply in the lead-up to the release of the Fed's minutes, sending yields to multi-year highs before steadying. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was little changed in Asia trade at 2.5865% while the 2-year note yield was slightly softer at 2.4554%, leaving this closely watched part of the yield curve slightly steeper after starting the week inverted. [US/] In currency markets, the prospect of quantitative tightening in the United States kept the dollar near a two-year high against a basket of currencies. The index was at 99.537, just off the overnight peak of 99.778, also supported by commodity currencies' retreat from recent highs due to a dip in oil prices, and a decline in the euro. The European common currency inched up from a one-month low overnight, weighed down by what ING analysts called a "double threat" from the economic impact of new sanctions on Russia for its war in Ukraine and uncertainty about the outcome of the French election. [FRX/] Oil prices rose on Thursday, however, after falling to a three-week low the day before after large consuming nations said they would release oil from reserves to counter tightening supply. Brent crude futures were up 1.45% at $102.55 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 1.3% to $97.48 a barrel. [O/R] Spot gold fell 0.23% to $1,920.9 an ounce [GOL/]

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@CarlosH-carvan #ivtrades
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USA GDP (QoQ) for Q4 6.900% vs 7.100% Est; Prior 7.000%

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**@bespokeinvest:** We’re discussing GDP revisions as they are released this morning! https://t.co/S0quCzL5dI https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1509145201901772802

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@lucullus #droscrew
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Back in the 70's when we had inflation debt levels were much lower...US gov debt was 30-40% GDP ... NOW 130%...WORSE THAN ww2

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@Schmidy23 #droscrew
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ppl wondered why the market was going up so hard off the Covid lows. well because it was predicting the eventual 7% gdp type growth

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@marketjay #marketassasins
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there is no cure there too late, this was supposed to be addressed last year, and many business will suffer with constraint balance sheets due to higher operations cost. smart business raised prices last year to offset these things. This will soon affect GDP

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@lucullus #droscrew
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current energy policy settings becoming a big issue, it's not so much about oil but the cost of energy in general as the BS about cheap solar and wind is exposed. Energy upto 7% of GDP close to all time high

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@lucullus #droscrew
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if we assume that move knocks 1% of GDP next year.... the FED is probably not going to 7-9 rate hikes

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@lucullus #droscrew
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a $10 rise on oil if sustained will reduce GDP by 0.2% and consumption by 0.4%. Well since december we have gone from $62 to $110...thats going to matter at somepoint

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@Snowcow #droscrew
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I think we are going to see more push for green energy/nuclear/energy independance > @lucullus said: i was reading a paper on it last night, oil use creeping up but GDP growing much quicker

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