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the average int rate was about 1-2%. Now it's 5-6%. The upshot is that rolling over the next 5 years if rates stay high debt interest is going to move from about 5% of world GDP to 19-20% of world GDP, just on interest
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The world has $350Trill of debt and approx $100 Trill of GDP. the debt rolls over on an average term of 5 yrs. so $70 Trill needs refinancing each year. when this years amount last got refinanced in 2017
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By Geoffrey Smith Investing.com -- The European Central Bank raised its key interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, pressing on with its fight to tame inflation despite signs of stress in the financial system resulting from earlier rate hikes. However, the bank dropped from its statement any reference to further interest rate hikes, a significant shift from its previous messaging. That comes in a week when global financial markets have been rattled by the collapse of three mid-sized U.S. banks, and by concerns for the viability of Swiss lender Credit Suisse (NYSE:CS), one of the world's 'systemically important' banks. Credit Suisse was handed a $54 billion lifeline and a vote of confidence by the Swiss National Bank overnight. The interest rate on the ECB's main refinancing operations will rise to 3.50%, while the deposit facility rate will rise to 3.0% and the marginal lending rate to 3.75%. The bank also said it will continue to reduce its balance at the current rate of around €15B a month. "Inflation is projected to remain too high for too long," the ECB said in a statement accompanying its decisions. But the rest of the statement consisted of several hints that it could quickly reverse course if the current bout of volatility threatened to derail the economy. "The Governing Council is monitoring current market tensions closely and stands ready to respond as necessary to preserve price stability and financial stability," the ECB said. It added that it considers the banking sector "resilient, with strong capital and liquidity positions." "In any case, the ECB’s policy toolkit is fully equipped to provide liquidity support to the euro area financial system if needed and to preserve the smooth transmission of monetary policy," the bank summed up. "This has the feel of a last rate hike," said G+ Economics founder and CEO Lena Komileva via Twitter. "With a large systemic and growth tail risk attached." The ECB's latest set of forecasts, published on Thursday, show inflation still running just above the bank's medium-term target of 2% in 2025. At the same time, it raised its growth forecasts for the single currency bloc, and now sees GDP growth of 1% this year. It also revised up its forecasts for 2024 and 2025. However, the new growth and inflation forecasts were finalized before the outbreak of market volatility last week, and are therefore subject to a higher degree of uncertainty than usual, the bank said.
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By Mohi Narayan and Sudarshan Varadhan (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped on Monday after China set a lower-than-expected target for economic growth this year at around 5%, and as investors cautiously awaited U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony this week. Brent crude futures were trading down 53 cents, or 0.6%, at $85.30 a barrel at 0735 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were also down 0.6% at $79.21. "Crude remains in a tug-of-war between optimism over Chinese reopening and nervousness over a hawkish Fed hurting the U.S. economy," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda (NASDAQ:VNDA) Insights. China's closely watched growth outlook, announced on Sunday, was lower than its 5.5% gross domestic product (GDP) growth target last year. GDP grew last year by just 3%. Policy sources had told Reuters a range as high as 6% could be set for 2023. Premier Li Keqiang said on Sunday the foundation for stable growth in China needed to be consolidated, insufficient demand remained a pronounced problem, and the expectations of private investors and businesses were unstable. However, analysts at UBS Investment Bank upgraded their forecasts for China's GDP growth to 5.4% for 2023 and to 5.2% for 2024 from 4.9% and 4.8% respectively. "Economic re-opening is proceeding better than we had expected earlier – the feared 'second-wave' of COVID did not materialize and there was little sign of supply disruptions," Tao Wang, Head of China economic research at UBS Investment Bank, said in a note. Both crude benchmarks settled more than $1 higher on Friday after two sources told Reuters a report that the United Arab Emirates was considering leaving OPEC was inaccurate. Hari said the rebound was bigger than the slump on the original news and put crude prices in "overbought territory, so (it's) hardly surprising that prices are correcting downwards this morning". At the same time, oil prices are likely to be impacted by rate hikes across the world as global central banks tighten policy over fears of increasing inflation. Traders have started factoring in rate hikes across the world, but are hoping for smaller increases than last year. The United States Federal Reserve's Chair Jerome Powell will testify to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, where he will likely be quizzed on whether larger hikes are needed in the world's largest oil consuming country. The United States' future rate hikes are also likely to depend on what the February payrolls report reveals on Friday, followed by the February inflation report due next week. Over the weekend, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said it was "very likely" they would raise interest rates this month to keep a lid on inflation.
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By Ambar Warrick Investing.com -- Most Asian stocks sank on Tuesday as fears of rising U.S. interest rates continued to batter regional sentiment, although markets held out for data this week that could signal a Chinese economic recovery. China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes fell 0.1% each ahead of a reading on the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) on Wednesday. While the data is expected to show some improvement in February from the prior month, the country’s manufacturing sector - which acts as a bellwether for economic growth - is likely to remain close to contraction. A Chinese economic recovery is expected to spill over into broader Asian markets. But readings so far have painted a mixed picture of the Chinese economy, even as the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier this year. China’s per capita spending also fell 0.2% in 2022, data showed on Tuesday, as COVID restrictions ground economic activity to a halt. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slipped 0.4% after data showed on Monday that the country’s exports plummeted nearly 37% in January - their worst drop in 70 years. The reading shows that the country’s economy and its export-oriented peers may be facing growing headwinds from a slowdown in global demand. The Taiwan Weighted index sank 0.7%, also taking cues from the weak export data. Broader Asian stock markets extended losses on Tuesday, as fears of a hawkish Fed persisted following hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data last week. Focus this week is on more U.S. economic readings, with any signs of resilience giving the Fed more headroom to keep raising interest rates. Rising interest rates bode poorly for Asian stocks, given that they dent foreign capital flows into the region. India’s Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex 30 indexes fell 0.1% each, with heavyweight technology stocks remaining under pressure from Fed jitters. Markets are awaiting December quarter GDP data from the country later in the day, with growth expected to have slowed from the prior quarter. Shares of firms under the Adani Group bounced back from sharp losses in the prior session, with Adani Enterprises Ltd (NS:ADEL) rising over 8%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was flat as data showed industrial production in the country slowed sharply in January. Markets are awaiting more cues from the Bank of Japan on the path of monetary policy. Risk-heavy Southeast Asian markets recovered sharply from losses in the prior session, but remained within a trading range seen earlier this month.
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European stock futures edge higher; German GDP contracted in fourth quarter
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GDP in 15 min.
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By Senad Karaahmetovic The U.S. stocks fell modestly last week with the S&P 500 (SPX) closing the week 0.28% lower - the first time it recorded two consecutive weekly red candles since December. The index is essentially flat month-to-date (MTD), which is quite positive for bulls as the January rally is still holding in. Looking at valuation, the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.0, below the 5-year average of 18.5% but above the 10-year average of 17.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) has continued to hover around 34000, ending the week 0.13% lower. Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) was the only major U.S. index to close in green last week after dropping 2.4% a week earlier. Looking ahead, this week's key economic data releases include the Q4 GDP second release on Thursday while investors will also watch closely the core PCE inflation and the University of Michigan reports on Friday. Earlier in the week, the minutes from the January FOMC meeting will be released (Wednesday) while several Fed speakers are due to speak this week, including Jefferson, Waller, Williams, Bostic, Daly, Mester, Bullard, and Collins. Q4 earnings session so far As of Friday, February 17, 82% of S&P 500 companies have reported results for Q4 2022. According to FactSet's data, 68% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 65% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. As far as closely watched guidance is concerned, 65 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance and 20 S&P 500 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. For this week, Home Depot (NYSE:HD) and Walmart (NYSE:WMT) have already reported earnings with both trading lower, thanks to the weaker-than-expected guidance for the full year. Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) and Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW) are due to report on Tuesday, while Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) are reporting on Wednesday after the market close. Finally, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) and Booking (NASDAQ:BKNG) are due to report on Thursday. What are analysts saying? Here's what analysts have to say about the upcoming trading week. Goldman Sachs analysts: "Our risk appetite indicator (GSRAII), sentiment surveys and CTAs equity positioning registered the largest bullish turn (from very bearish levels). We think the speed of the rebound lowers the bar for a negative sentiment shock from here if macro data disappoint." Morgan Stanley analysts: "With the Equity Risk Premium at its lowest level since 2007, the risk-reward for stocks is extremely poor, particularly with a Fed that is likely far from done, and earnings expectations that are 10-20% too high. It's time to head back to base camp before the next guide down in earnings." Citi analysts: "Last year's losing trades have started 2023 very strongly. Global equities, especially tech stocks, are up. Oil and defensive stocks have lagged. However, markets often change leadership into the new year, only to revert back to the previous themes later on. We suspect 2023 will follow this well-worn pattern." UBS analysts: "We still expect a hard landing… We added a May rate hike to the projection, and point to the risks that the FOMC raises rates by an additional 25 bps at their June meeting too. But higher rates do not make us more bullish on the economic outlook." Credit Suisse analysts: "The bulls have been playing two key datapoints (global PMIs rising and core CPI falling), and thus the negative catalyst will come when either stops. Wages and service sector inflation (ex shelter) are correctly seen as the key to overall inflation, and we think both are stickier than the market currently perceives." Vital Knowledge analysts: "The current phase of unhelpful economic data may persist for a bit longer (including the Jan PCE on Friday 2/24) and the SPX's valuation still isn't appealing, but these are ephemeral stumbling blocks, which is why dips (down to 4000-4050) should be bought. Disinflation is likely to resume, central banks (including the Fed) are nearing the finish line, and earnings/growth are resilient." JPMorgan analysts: "With equities trading near last summer’s highs and at above-average multiples, despite weakening earnings and the recent sharp move higher in interest rates, we maintain that markets are overpricing recent good news on inflation and are complacent of risks. Equity markets appeared to read this month's central bank meetings as dovish, while dismissing the weak Q4 earnings and the implications of the strong US payroll report for both monetary policy and corporate margins. We see the equity risk/reward as skewed to the downside, as upside potential for markets is likely fairly limited given stretched valuations and high rates, while downside could be meaningful, e.g. in case of a further weakening of activity, persisting inflation, higher terminal rates, or a resurgence of geopolitical risk."
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more recently the numbers have become less restrictive > @lucullus said: interesting chart is the % of GDP taken in tax across the years. Its remarkably consistent. Just shows nobody pays those tax rates
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interesting chart is the % of GDP taken in tax across the years. Its remarkably consistent. Just shows nobody pays those tax rates
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By Peter Nurse Investing.com - The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade Friday, on course to post another positive week, amid caution ahead of next week's crucial inflation data release. At 03:00 ET (07:00 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% higher at 103.207, and is set to post its second straight positive week, a run it has not had since October. The index has traded in a relatively tight range this week as traders digest economic data and try to parse speeches from a series of Fed policymakers for clues of the likely future pace of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased more than expected last week, rising for the first time in six weeks, but remained historically low. And thus it’s the inflation portion of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate which is dominating thinking as far as monetary policy is concerned. Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a fairly dovish stance in a speech earlier this week, reiterating his belief that disinflation was underway, but his Fed colleagues have tended to express their desire for further rate hikes as the week has progressed. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin was the latest to comment on Thursday. “With demand slowing but still resilient, labor markets healthy and the added and unfortunately enduring shock of the war in Ukraine, it shouldn’t be a surprise that inflation — while likely past its peak — is still elevated,” Barkin said. “That, of course, is what makes the case for us to stay the course.” This brings next week's U.S. CPI data, due on Tuesday, firmly into focus, as it will shed further light on whether disinflation is well and truly underway. Elsewhere, EUR/USD traded 0.1% lower at 1.0726, USD/JPY largely unchanged at 131.59, and the risk-sensitive AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.6923. GBP/USD fell 0.1% to 1.2105 after data released Friday showed U.K. gross domestic product fell 0.5% on the month in December, however GDP was unchanged in the fourth quarter, meaning the country's economy just avoided entering a technical recession after falling 0.3% in the July-September quarter. USD/CNY rose 0.3% to 6.8013 after data showed consumer price inflation grew less than expected in January, while producer price inflation fell further during the month. China’s economy is trying to recover from three years of restrictive COVID policies, and these numbers suggest it still faces a long road to reaching pre-pandemic levels of growth.
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By Stefanno Sulaiman and Fransiska Nangoy JAKARTA (Reuters) -Indonesia's economic growth climbed to its strongest in nine years last year fuelled by revived spending from the lifting of pandemic restrictions and as a global commodity boom sent exports to a record high. But momentum slowed in the final quarter as prices moderated, and weaker global demand, higher inflation and a rise in interest rates could pose a drag on activity this year. Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded 5.31% in 2022, Statistics Indonesia data showed on Monday, its best annual growth rate since 2013, and faster than the 5.29% expected in a Reuters poll. In the fourth quarter, gross domestic product expanded 5.01% on an annual basis, compared with 4.84% growth predicted by the poll and 5.72% in the previous three months. The annual rate was the slowest since the third quarter of 2021, the statistics agency said. The resource-rich economy gained from high global commodities prices in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war that aided the rupiah and improved the country's current account, but global demand is faltering. "We expect growth to slow further over the coming quarters. Exports will struggle due to weaker global growth and lower commodity prices," Capital Economics analyst Shivaan Tandon said. "Global commodity prices have dropped back since late last year, and we expect further falls over the coming months. Meanwhile, despite the rebound now underway in China, we expect global growth to struggle this year as the U.S. falls into recession." Indonesia's exports grew on the back of soaring commodity prices last year, with shipments reaching a record high of $292 billion. The country is a major supplier of thermal coal, palm oil and nickel steel. STRONG CONSUMPTION Household consumption, which accounts for more than half of Indonesia's GDP, accelerated last year, especially supported by travel-related spending as COVID-19 restrictions eased. Indonesia removed most movement curbs last year after daily cases dropped and vaccination rates rose, driving up household consumption. All remaining measures were lifted at the end of the year. Investment grew 3.87% last year, similar to 2021's growth but is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, the statistics bureau said. Meanwhile, government spending in 2022 contracted as Jakarta started to ease back from pandemic-era health and social spending. This year's growth would likely be supported by household consumption amid continued improvement in people's mobility, Bank Mandiri economist Faisal Rachman said, predicting growth of 5.04% in 2023. The recent tightening of monetary policy may drag on growth prospects, analysts said, although Indonesia's central bank has signalled that its rate hike cycle was ending as inflation has cooled. Bank Indonesia has raised its policy interest rate by 225 basis points since August. Myrdal Gunarto of Maybank Indonesia predicted that the policy rate will be kept at the current level of 5.75% until the end of 2023 to uphold growth. Jakarta has set a target of 5.3% for economic growth in 2023.
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Indonesia 2022 GDP growth races to 9-year high on commodities boom
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everyone throwing money at China as it opens up, however it's property sector is a overpriced disaster, chickens are still coming home to roost on that one. 30% of GDP almost comatose
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**Market Update – January 27: Strong US data = Soft Landing ?** The major US economic data yesterday (Q4 GDP lower; 3.9% from 4.2% but better than expected 3.6%, strong consumer spending, Durable goods, New Home Sales, Lower Inventories and Weekly Claims at new 22-mth lows) all added to the soft landing, disinflation, scenario for the US economy. __Read More:__ https://analysis.hfeu.com/en-eu/656049/
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By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher against the euro on Thursday after data showed the U.S. economy maintained a strong pace of growth in the fourth quarter, even as momentum appears to have slowed towards the end of the year. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% annualised rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate. The economy grew at a 3.2% pace in the third quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.6% rate. A separate report from the Labor Department showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 186,000 for the week ended Jan. 21. "A somewhat mixed picture painted by the U.S. data," said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital in London. The data point to an economy that is continuing to show resilience in the face of the rapid monetary tightening so far delivered by the Fed, Cole said. "But a big contributor to this growth story was inventories, a component that is almost certain to weaken as we go through 2023," he said. "Thus, overall, a neutral picture I would say in terms of the impact the data will have on expectations of Fed policy going forward," Cole said. The euro was 0.28% lower at $1.0884, but not far from the nine-month high of $1.09295 touched on Monday. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.59% at 130.345 yen. Attention now turns to next week's central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Traders broadly expect the Fed to increase rates by 25 basis points (bps) next Wednesday, a step down from a 50 bps increase in December. Meanwhile, the ECB has all but committed to raising its key rate by half a percentage point next week. Sterling was about flat on the day against the U.S. dollar, on pace to log a narrow gain for the week, its third straight weekly rise, even as traders remained concerned about the task facing the Bank of England in controlling inflation without damaging an economy already in recession. The Aussie touched a new 7-month high of $0.71425 on growing expectations that more Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hikes are due after data showed Australian inflation surged to a 33-year high last quarter. The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, a day after the Bank of Canada raised interest rates as expected in a move that could mark the end of the central bank's aggressive tightening campaign. Meanwhile, bitcoin was little changed on the day at $22,995, continuing to tread water after having jumped by about a third in value since early January, following big losses following the high-profile collapse of the FTX crypto exchange.
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GDP NUMBERS LOOK GOOD
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By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian equities rose to a fresh seven-month high on Thursday, with Hong Kong shares playing catch-up to other markets' gains as trade resumed after its three-day Lunar New Holiday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.9% to 557.65 and was set for its fifth straight day of gains. The index has gained 10% so far in January, buoyed by expectations of a strong economic rebound in China and by hopes that most major central banks are nearing an end to hefty rate rises. Trading was thin on Thursday with Australia closed for a holiday and certain parts of Asia, including China, still away for the Lunar New Year. The buoyant mood looked set to continue in Europe, with the Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.58%, German DAX futures 0.58% higher and FTSE futures up 0.30%. Traders betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon tone down its aggressive rate hike policy got a lift after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised rates but became the first major central bank to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now. After a series of super-sized rate hikes last year, the U.S. central bank is now largely expected to raise rates by a smaller 25 basis points next week on signs that inflation is cooling. While analysts expect the Fed to eventually pause its interest rate hikes this year, for some the meeting in February is a bit too early for that. "We believe the Fed will make a special effort to avoid suggesting that the end of the tightening process is in sight," said Kevin Cummins (NYSE:CMI), chief economist at NatWest Markets. Cummins said it was likely that the committee would go out of its way to keep the official policy statement free of anything that could be construed as a suggestion that a pause might be under consideration just yet. The spotlight will be on the U.S. GDP data due later on Thursday. The report could mark the last quarter of solid growth before the lagged effects of the Fed's jumbo rate hikes kick in. "The U.S. GDP release today will be of key interest to gauge whether the market expectations shifting in favour of a soft landing rather than a recession can continue to hold," Saxo strategists said in a note to clients. The prospect of a less aggressive pace in monetary tightening has stoked expectations of a so-called soft landing - a scenario in which inflation eases against a backdrop of weakening but still resilient economic growth. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index surged 1.7% in its first day of trade in the Year of the Rabbit, while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.25%. Investor attention will also be on the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings due next week, with traders looking for clues as to when the central banks are likely to turn dovish. In the currency market, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was at 101.64, not far off the eight-month low of 101.51 it touched last week. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.22% to 129.32 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2394, down 0.05% on the day. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 2.1 bps to 3.441%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 3 bps to 3.595%. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at -68.7 bps. The inversion of this curve has predicted eight of the last nine recessions, analysts have said. Oil prices were steady after U.S. crude stocks rose less than expected. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.09% to $80.22 per barrel, while Brent was at $86.05, down 0.08% on the day. [O/R] Gold prices touched a nine-month high, with spot gold at $1,945.55 per ounce, after hitting $1,949.09 earlier in the day.
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Shares in Asia hit fresh 7-month high, U.S. GDP data awaited
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By Arundhati Sarkar (Reuters) - Gold prices slipped on Wednesday from a nine-month peak hit in the previous session as the dollar steadied and investors squared positions ahead of U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth figures. Spot gold was down 0.6% to $1,925.75 per ounce at 1320 GMT, after hitting its highest since late April on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.4% to $1,927.20. The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to unveil its initial advance fourth-quarter GDP estimates on Thursday, which could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting. Gold's losses, after the peak recorded on Tuesday, resulted from a technical correction as investors closed positions in order to lock in profits ahead of the release of the data, said ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista. "The overall sentiment is positive, with the Fed expected to adopt a more benign posture and announce a 25bp rate hike, when it meets next week. If confirmed, the scenario will be negative for the U.S. dollar and treasuries, offering support to gold." Lower interest rates tend to be beneficial for bullion, decreasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. The dollar index, meanwhile, held steady, making gold less appealing for other currency holders. [USD/] Traders expect the Fed to scale back its rate hike pace further after slowing its policy tightening spree to 50 basis points (bps) last month after four straight 75-bp hikes. Fears around possible recession were also offering support to gold, analysts said. U.S. business activity contracted for the seventh straight month in January, though the downturn moderated across both the manufacturing and services sectors for the first time since September. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.9% to $23.4537 per ounce and palladium lost 1.1% to $1,723.35. Platinum snapped a three-day winning streak, having shed 1.7% to $1,038.76 on the day.
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**Events to Look Out For Next Week** Recession fears are making a comeback and concern over the growth outlook are boosting haven flows and weighing on equities. The coming week features several PMI and GDP reports and sticky inflation out of Australia and New Zealand, while the BoC rate decision and policy statement will be in the spotlight. Note that markets in China, South Korea, and Taiwan will be closed for Lunar New Year holidays, with the former closed through the whole week. __Read More:__ https://analysis.hfeu.com/en-eu/653772/
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**Market Update – January 17: USD Holds at 7-mth lows, Mixed data from China & UK** Chinese GDP for 2022 at 3.0% missed expectations (5.5%) significantly and represented the slowest growth for the world’s second largest economy since 1976 and the end of the austerity of Mao Zedong. Q4 GDP beat expectations at 2.9% vs 1.8% but was still very weak. __Read More:__ https://analysis.hfeu.com/en-eu/652443/
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By Sonali Paul and Muyu Xu MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday after China posted its weakest annual economic growth in nearly half a century, with its late-2022 U-turn in COVID-19 policy underpinning hopes of a recovery in the country's fuel demand this year. Brent crude futures edged up by 7 cents, or 0.1%, to $84.52 by 0727 GMT, recouping some of the 1% loss in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slid 73 cents, or 0.9%, to $79.15 from Friday's close. There was no settlement on Monday because of the U.S. public holiday for Martin Luther King Day. "Brent crude has gained nearly 10% over the past 10 days as optimism over China's reopening boosted sentiment. However, the outlook for the rest of the global economy is uncertain," ANZ commodities analysts said in a client note. ANZ also pointed to a jump in crude supply from Russia weighing on the market, with seaborne exports having risen to 3.8 million barrels per day last week, the highest level since April. China's gross domestic product expanded 3% in 2022, badly missing the official target of "around 5.5%" and marking the second-worst performance since 1976, as the last quarter was hit hard by stringent COVID curbs and a property market slump. The poor economic data still beat analysts' earlier forecasts as Beijing's roll back of its zero-COVID policy in December shored up consumption. Data released on Tuesday also showed China's oil refinery output in 2022 had fallen 3.4% from a year earlier, its first annual decline since 2001, although daily December oil throughput rose to the second-highest level of 2022. "With a stronger end to 2022 than we had expected, plus indications of stronger retail expenditure ahead, the outlook for GDP growth in 2023 has improved compared to our prior outlook," ING Chief Economist, Greater China Iris Pang said in a note. But Pang warned that China still faced considerable headwinds, including likely recessions in the United States and Europe this year. In a bearish survey released at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, two-thirds of private and public sector economists polled expected a global recession this year, with about 18% considering it "extremely likely". A survey of chief executives' views by PwC was the gloomiest since the firm launched the poll a decade ago. A rise in the dollar from seven-month lows also put pressure on oil prices, as a stronger greenback makes oil more expensive for those holding other currencies.
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**Events to Look Out For Next Week** Trading activity could gear up quickly to begin the abbreviated week with the key question still being how much further policymakers will have to boost rates. The inflation figures out of US are in the spotlight since an as-expected reading for December CPI figures would result in a pullback in the y/y headline rise to 6.5% from 7.1%, implying a cooling of inflation. For the UK, monthly GDP figure is in focus. Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication. __Read More:__ https://analysis.hfeu.com/en-eu/648835/
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JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia's finance minister on Monday told the nation's top bankers to be wary of risks to their balance sheets this year due to numerous global risks, including potential debt crises in some countries. In a seminar with bankers, Sri Mulyani Indrawati said risks in 2023 included high inflation, rising interest rates, geopolitical tension and the International Monetary Fund's outlook for slowing global growth. "The ups and downs, whether our economy is healthy or not really depend on the banking sector today, in 2023," Sri Mulyani said. "So if I am guarding the state budget, please take care of your own banks well too," she said, urging bankers to think ahead and not to "continue to be constantly surprised" by global developments. Southeast Asia's largest economy managed to maintain economic stability during an extraordinary year in 2022, she said, with economic growth expected to have remained resilient around 5% in the fourth quarter, following 5.7% growth in the third quarter. Some other countries did not fare so well, Sri Mulyani said, predicting for this year "not only recession but the potential of debt crisis in countries where debt levels are very high". She also warned of global division into geopolitical blocks reminiscent of the Cold War. The Indonesian government would continue to maintain a flexible budget, including anticipating a potential revenue loss from moderating commodity prices, she said. It did well last year, the minister added, citing a fiscal deficit of 2.4% of GDP, much smaller than planned, thanks to strong revenue collection from a commodity export boom. Indonesia's banking sector is well capitalised with a capital adequacy ratio at 25.49% and a non-performing loan ratio at 2.65% as of November. Its central bank last year raised interest rates by a total of 200 basis points and some economists expected further rate hikes this year to bring inflation back to within a 2-4% target. December inflation was 5.51%.
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I played with ChatGPT over the weekend. So many countries GDP could get wrecked with this thing. Especially the countries where the US outsources non-manufacturing tasks
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PIL USA 3° trimestre 2022 Rapporto completo https://www.bea.gov/index.php/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-third-estimate-gdp-industry-and-corporate-profits-revised-third
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GDP and PCE data out at 8:30am and will likely create some movement
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By Ambar Warrick Investing.com -- Most Asian stock markets fell further on Wednesday as investors gauged the implications of a surprise policy shift by the Bank of Japan, with the Nikkei index extending its losses to an over two-month low. The Nikkei 225 was the worst performer in Asia for a second consecutive session, losing 0.7% after a 2.5% tumble in the prior session. The BOJ widened the range within which the yields on the benchmark government bonds are allowed to fluctuate, heralding a potential pivot away from the central bank’s ultra-dovish policy. Such a scenario would bode poorly for Japanese stock markets, which have enjoyed an accommodative environment for nearly a decade. The prospect of a hawkish pivot by the BOJ also rattled Asian markets, which were already reeling from a series of hawkish signals from other major central banks. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all signaled last week that interest rates will keep rising in 2023. China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes fell 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, amid continued uncertainty over rising COVID-19 cases in the country. While analysts expect the recent relaxing of anti-COVID curbs to eventually spur an economic recovery, they warned of near-term volatility in Chinese markets as the country grapples with increasing infections. Uncertainty over China, coupled with fears that hawkish central banks could trigger a recession in 2023, has largely dented expectations for an end-year rally in Asian stocks. Regional markets were battered by rising interest rates this year, with most bourses trading lower for 2022. India’s Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex 30 indexes fell about 0.1% each. But are among the few Asian bourses trading higher for the year, up over 6% each on strength in the Indian economy. The country is pipped as one of the fastest-growing economies in 2022, with a projected GDP of nearly 7%. Some Asian bourses recovered from sharp losses on Wednesday. The Taiwan Weighted index added 0.5%, while Philippine stocks led gains across Southeast Asia with a 0.7% jump. Australia’s ASX 200 index surged 1.3% after sinking to an over-one-month low in the prior session.
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**DATI MACRO** NUOVA ZELANDA **PIL (Trimestrale) (3° trim.) 2,0% (previsione 0,9%, precedente 1,7%)** **PIL (Annuale) (3° trim.) 6,4% (previsione 5,5%, precedente 0,4%)** Rapporto sul PIL Q3 della Nuova Zelanda https://www.stats.govt.nz/indicators/gross-domestic-product-gdp/
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**CINA - La Cina rilascia piani per aumentare la domanda interna.** **Cina:** L'aumento della domanda interna aiuterà ad affrontare le minacce e le difficoltà derivanti dalle sfide esterne. La Cina incoraggerà una crescita economica sana e sostenibile - Xinhua. Il PIL della Cina non supererà probabilmente quello degli Stati Uniti nei prossimi decenni, riferisce JCER - Nikkei. https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-GDP-unlikely-to-surpass-U.S.-in-next-few-decades-JCER
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70% ? > @lucullus said: we are going to get lower inflation soon, this will lower government receipts, so Biden is going to be issuing loads of bonds later in the year, Chinese and Russians used to be two of the major buyers, they wont be buying, so rates going to be forced up. They are creating a shit show, US bond growth will be about 70% of world nominal GDP growth...where is the money going to come from....rates will go higher or they need a printing press turned back on
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we are going to get lower inflation soon, this will lower government receipts, so Biden is going to be issuing loads of bonds later in the year, Chinese and Russians used to be two of the major buyers, they wont be buying, so rates going to be forced up. They are creating a shit show, US bond growth will be about 70% of world nominal GDP growth...where is the money going to come from....rates will go higher or they need a printing press turned back on
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Total global GDP was $96 trillion USD in 2021 > @dros said: $80 trillion of debt sounds pretty substantial lol
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nowcast saying 4.2% GDP this qtr yet PMIs in full meltdown
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@PivotBoss #P I V O T B O S S
**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [November 30, 2022]: Fed Chair Powell on Deck** NOVEMBER 30, 2022 — WEDNESDAY AM The ES and NQ are seeing early selling pressure after the release of economic data, including ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and GDP. But with Fed Chair Powell on deck to speak later at 12:30pm CT, we could see much more headline risk and volatility ahead. Crude Oil remains strong after rejecting 76.25, with 85 ahead. Gold continues to hold 1738.50, which suggests more upside could be ahead.
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SOME GOOD NUMBERS CAME OUT AT 8:30 ON GDP(GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT)
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Good Morning, US Stock Futures are up marginally at the moment. Techs showing minor relative strength after yesterday's weakness. Dollar and Treasuries are down slightly. Gold and Silver are higher. Crude is higher with inventory data out later this morning. NG is modestly lower. ADP job data out at 8:15am GDP and PCE data out at 8:30am Oil Inventory at 10:30am Jerome Powell speaks at 1:30pm Plenty going on in the markets today to create some movement. Trade Well.
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Tomorrow morning before the open, GDP, PCE data, and monthly ADP job numbers.
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By Scott Murdoch SYDNEY (Reuters) - Stocks and commodities prices slid sharply on Monday as rare protests in major Chinese cities against the country's strict zero-COVID curbs raised investors' concerns about the growth implications for the world's second-largest economy. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 1.5% having slumped 2.2% at the open, pulled lower by a selldown in Chinese markets. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index shed 4.16% at the start of trade but recovered some territory to be off 2.32%. China's CSI300 Index was down 1.8% after opening down 2.2% while the yuan also retreated. "Clearly the harsh China lock downs have been impacting their consumer and business sentiment for some time and the persistent downgrades to China GDP have been consistent for well over a year now with further downgrades to come," said George Boubouras, executive direct of K2 Asset Management in Melbourne. "Markets do not like uncertainty and investors will look for some clarification to China's very harsh domestic lock down protocols." Fears about Chinese economic growth also hit commodities markets. Oil remained deep in negative territory on Monday with U.S. crude dipping 3% to $73.99 a barrel and Brent crude falling 2.86% to $81.24 per barrel, as the COVID protests in top importer China fanned demand worries. Copper and other metals also fell on the protests. Australia's benchmark stock index closed 0.42% lower while its risk-sensitive currency was off more than 1%. Japan's Nikkei stock index was down 0.6%. Across the region, South Korea's KOSPI 200 index retreated 1.2% in and New Zealand's S&P/NZX50 Index close down 0.65%. European stock futures were down across each of the major markets while S&P 500 futures, were 0.77% lower. The bigger worries about China's COVID policies dwarfed any support to investor sentiment from the central bank's 25 basis point cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) announced on Friday, which would free up about $70 billion in liquidity to prop up a faltering economy. China announced a fifth consecutive day of record new local cases with 40,052 infections on Monday. In Shanghai, demonstrators and police clashed on Sunday night as protests over the country's stringent COVID restrictions flared for a third day. There were also protests in Wuhan, Chengdu and parts of the capital Beijing as COVID restrictions were put in place in an attempt to quell fresh outbreaks. Robert Subbaraman, Nomura's Asia ex-Japan chief economist, said there is a risk China's plan to live with COVID is too slow, surging COVID cases fuel more protests and social unrest further weakens the economy. "Things are very fluid," he said. "Protests could also be the catalyst that leads to a positive outcome in leading the government to set a clearer game plan on how the country is going to learn to live with COVID, setting a more transparent timetable, and accelerating China's move to living with COVID." The dollar extended gains against the yuan, rising 0.57% but off earlier session highs. The COVID rules and resulting protests are creating fears the economic hit for China will be greater than first expected. "Even if China is on a path to eventually move away from its zero-COVID approach, the low level of vaccination among the elderly means the exit is likely to be slow and possibly disorderly," CBA analysts said on Monday. "The economic impacts are unlikely to be small." Yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes reached 3.6314% from its U.S. close of 3.702% on Friday. The two-year yield, which tracks traders' expectations of Fed fund rates, touched 4.4278% compared with a U.S. close of 4.479%. The dollar dropped 0.46% against the yen to 138.46 after initially trading higher earlier in the day. It remains well off this year's high of 151.94 on Oct. 21. The euro fell 0.4%, having gained 4.94% in a month, while the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was up at 106.39. Gold was slightly lower. Spot gold was traded at $1,749.54 per ounce.
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**conorsen:** [@opinion] The pickup in auto production and sales could lead to a 2-3 quarter “transitory goldilocks” environment for GDP, productivity growth, and inflation: https://t.co/sCZo87L0wq https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1592862314583429121
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**conorsen:** 125k jobs/month and zero productivity growth gets you to 1.1% real GDP growth. I’ve been kind of disappointed in the Goldman team lately — feels like they don’t question the inputs into the models enough. https://t.co/ZauAExZr8F https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1586032336977608704
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Goodrich Petroleum is an independent oil and natural gas exploration and production company listed on the NYSE American.
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