42.66 - 71.31
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By Brigid Riley TOKYO (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar ticked down to a three-month low against peer currencies on Tuesday after slipping overnight on weaker-than-expected new home sales data, while traders hunkered down on bets that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates in the first half of next year. U.S. new home sales fell 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units in October, data showed, below the 723,000 units expected by economists polled by Reuters and sending Treasury yields into a decline. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, was last at 103.16, hanging around its lowest since Aug. 31. The dollar was track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year. Market expectation that the Fed's rate increase cycle has finally come to an end has also put downward pressure on the greenback. U.S. rate futures showed about a 25% chance that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as March and increasing to nearly 45% by May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "Slowing growth momentum, peak rates, rate cuts next year, and unwinding of long positioning: it's the dynamic feeding a weaker U.S. dollar and driving the entire currency complex," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. "Anything that brings that trend into question will change the outlook; however, the bar for that to happen is high," he added, saying the dollar likely has more room to fall. Traders are now eyeing U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - this week for more confirmation that inflation in the world's largest economy is slowing. PCE tops off a slew of other key economic events this week, including Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data and OPEC+ decision. After delaying its policy meeting to this Thursday, OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts, according to an OPEC+ source. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar briefly touched a near four-month high of $0.6632 against the greenback before easing to $0.6621. Data out Tuesday morning showed that domestic retail sales in October declined from the previous month. The kiwi also momentarily hit its highest since Aug. 10 at $0.6114 before sliding back down to $0.61015. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, where it is expected to keep interest rates steady at 5.50% for the fourth straight time. Elsewhere, the yen made up some ground on Tuesday in the wake of continued dollar weakening, with dollar/yen inching down around 0.3% to 148.21 yen per greenback. The Japanese currency may, however, be in for some turbulence depending on the outcome of this week's inflation data from the United States. "The risk for dollar bears is that U.S. PCE inflation does not come in as soft as hoped," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "That leaves (dollar/yen) vulnerable to a bounce this week."
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S&P 500 (SPX) recorded the fourth consecutive weekly close last week, ultimately closing at the highest level since July. It also marks the longest weekly run since June. The benchmark U.S. stock market index is now testing key resistance near 4560, which is shaped by the trend line that connects the record high and 2023 high. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) added 1.3% to also hit the downward trend line that connects recent swing highs. On the other hand, the Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) rose 0.9% but still managed to secure a weekly close above the key trendline, which will now provide support if the pullback occurs. Looking forward to this week, the Consumer Confidence report is out on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the Q3 GDP reading is expected to be released. A set of inflation-focused data is set to be out on Thursday, including personal income data for October. Manufacturing PMI and ISM manufacturing data is scheduled for Friday. Fed’s speakers, including Governor Waller and Presidents Goolsbee and Mester, are all scheduled to speak this week. On the earnings front, the most notable reporters include Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Workday (NASDAQ:WDAY), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), and Snowflake (NYSE:SNOW). The list also includes Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR), Dell Technologies (NYSE:DELL), Marvel (MRVL), Kroger (NYSE:KR), Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA), and UiPath (NYSE:PATH). What analysts are saying about US stocks Analysts at Oppenheimer: “Our feel is that bearish investors that largely missed S&P 500 gains in 2023 are gravitating towards the Russell 2000 in belief there’s greater potential in lagging benchmarks—we disagree. We maintain our preference for the S&P 500 given its weighting to Technology.” Analysts at BofA: “We expect CTA buying in the S&P 500 [this] week as the index has gained greater than 1% in each of the last four weeks turning its trend strength positive for the first time since early October. Our model initiated a long position [the] past week that will rapidly increase along any price path [this] week.” Analysts at Citi: “More S&P 500 companies are expected to positively contribute to index-level growth, fewer are projected to be significant detractors, and underlying EPS growth variation is set to decline… Ultimately, it supports our view that S&P 500 EPS can turn higher even as macro concerns linger.” Analysts at BTIG: “The Short-term Volatility Index (VIX9D) closed below 10 last week, the lowest reading since Jan. 2020. Volatility is a funny thing because it is often mean reverting, unless we are in a new regime… While we continue to expect some rotation into laggards, we don't think we are in a new regime and therefore as we head into December, a sub-13 VIX is likely a yellow light.” Analysts at Roth MKM: “As we enter the last few trading days of November, we find the S&P 500 could put in its best monthly gains of the year. Seasonal tailwinds often blow into December. The question becomes, can the indices hold their ground into year-end… We found when discretionary experienced an extremely strong November, similar to this month, positive returns were likely to follow in December.”
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@PivotBoss #P I V O T B O S S
**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [November 27, 2023]: Key Levels to Watch** NOVEMBER 27, 2023 — MONDAY AM The ES, NQ, and YM remain within the very bullish short term trends, with the ES and NQ also developing narrow 8-day ranges. These ranges could fuel the next big breakout move. The ES still has the next resistance levels above to reach at 4600 and 4635, while the YM is reaching for 35,800. Crude Oil remains on a path to 69.69, and Gold has a big test at the 2020 edge, which could result in rejection.
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Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies weakened slightly on Monday, while the dollar steadied as traders hunkered down before a string of key economic readings due this week. Mixed signals from China weighed on sentiment, as data showed a sustained, albeit narrowing decline in industrial profits. Top Chinese government officials called on Beijing to unlock more financial support for local businesses amid a slowing economic recovery. The yuan fell 0.1%, following a slightly weaker daily midpoint fix by the People’s Bank of China. Focus this week was on purchasing managers index (PMI) data for November, due on Thursday, for more cues on business activity. PMI readings for October had largely missed expectations. Still, Beijing has more stimulus measures lined up in the coming months, specifically a 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) bond issuance, which is expected to shore up growth. But near-term sentiment towards China remained largely weak, which in turn kept broader Asian markets subdued. The Australian dollar fell 0.2%, with focus also turning to key inflation and retail sales data due later in the week. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock is also set to speak on this week, after she warned that inflation will likely remain sticky in the coming months. South Korea’s won fell 0.1% before a Bank of Korea rate decision this week, with the central bank widely expected to keep rates on hold. The Indian rupee hovered around record lows, while the Thai baht led gains across Southeast Asia with a 0.4% rise, even as data showed the country swinging to a surprise trade deficit in October. The Japanese yen was among the better performers for the day, rising 0.4%. Japanese industrial production and retail sales data is also on tap this week. Most Asian currencies marked strong gains through November, amid growing optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve was done raising interest rates. This trend had also battered the dollar, putting it close to three-month lows. But markets were now awaiting a fresh batch of economic readings for more cues on monetary policy. Dollar steady as inflation, GDP data looms The dollar index and dollar index futures moved little in Asian trade on Monday, as markets awaited key economic readings from the country this week. PCE price data- the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge- is due on Thursday, as is a second reading on gross domestic product for the third quarter. Any signs of cooling inflation and economic growth are expected to further bets on a less hawkish Fed, denting the dollar and benefiting Asian markets. U.S. consumer confidence and PMI readings for November are also due this week, offering more cues on the world’s largest economy.
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By Paul Carsten and Natalie Grover LONDON (Reuters) -Brent crude futures hovered above $81 a barrel on Friday as traders kept their powder dry ahead of next week's OPEC+ meeting, which could bring some kind of agreement on output cuts in 2024. Brent crude futures were up 42 cents at $81.84 a barrel by 1459 GMT, having settled 0.7% down in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude were down 33 cents from Wednesday's close, dropping to $76.77. There was no settlement for WTI on Thursday owing to a U.S. public holiday. Both contracts were on track for their first weekly gain in five weeks as OPEC+ prepares for a meeting that will have output cuts high on the agenda after recent oil price declines on demand concerns and burgeoning supply, particularly from non-OPEC producers. The OPEC+ group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia surprised the market with an announcement on Wednesday by announcing that its Nov. 26 meeting would be postponed to Nov. 30 after producers struggled to reach a consensus on production levels. OPEC+ has moved closer to a compromise with African oil producers on 2024 output levels, three OPEC+ sources have told Reuters. "The most likely outcome now appears to be an extension of existing cuts," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore. The surprise delay had initially brought Brent futures down as much as 4% and WTI by as much as 5% in intraday trading on Wednesday. Trading remained subdued during Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. A bright spot came in the form of the near-term economic outlook in China. Recent Chinese data and fresh aid to the indebted property sector can be "positive for the oil market's near-term trend", said CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) analyst Tina Teng. Yet those gains could be capped by higher U.S. crude stockpiles and poor refining margins, leading to weaker demand from U.S. refineries, analysts said. "Fundamentals developments have been bearish with rising U.S. oil inventories," ANZ analysts said in a note. Still, China's longer-term outlook remains lukewarm. Analysts say oil demand growth could weaken to about 4% in the first half of 2024 as the property sector crunch weighs on diesel use. Non-OPEC production growth is set to remain strong, with Brazilian state energy company Petrobras planning to invest $102 billion over the next five years to boost output to 3.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by 2028, up from 2.8 million boepd in 2024.
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LATEST SIGNAL HAS VERY TIGHT STOP LOSS
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By Holger Hansen and Kirsti Knolle BERLIN (Reuters) -German Finance Minister Christian Lindner will propose a supplementary budget for this year which includes the suspension of limits on new borrowing, as he tries to ease a budgetary crisis caused by a court ruling last week. The German government has in the last week scrambled to find a way to accommodate a constitutional court ruling which blocked the transfer of unused funds from the pandemic to green investment, blowing a 60 billion euro hole in its finances. The ruling has prompted warnings about growth in Europe's biggest economy and strained the uneasy three-way coalition between Social Democrat Chancellor Scholz, Lindner of the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens. "In consultation with the chancellor and the vice chancellor, I will present a supplementary budget for this year next week," Lindner told reporters on Thursday. "We will now put spending, especially for the power and gas price brakes, on a constitutionally secure footing," he said, adding this required a supplementary budget. A finance ministry spokesperson said the government would propose a lifting of the debt brake, which limits Germany's structural budget deficit to the equivalent of 0.35% of gross domestic product, by proposing to parliament an "emergency situation" for 2023. A majority of lawmakers must agree. The constitutionally-enshrined debt brake, introduced after the global financial crisis of 2008/09, was first suspended in 2020 to help the government support companies and health systems during the COVID-19 pandemic economic fallout. Hawkish Lindner had been reluctant to suspend the debt brake mechanism as his party strongly advocates fiscal discipline. Lindner said the priority was to get this year's budget on a legal footing before looking to the financial planning for next year. Talks for the 2024 budget have been delayed, meaning the government may not be able to pass it by the end of the year. Compounding the uncertainty, the government has imposed a freeze on future spending plans across ministries. If new spending commitments are not possible, this raises the risk of fiscal drag in the near-term, the scale of which is hard to gauge, according to a JP Morgan research note. "We can only talk about the year 2024 and subsequent years again, once we have a legally and constitutionally secure basis," said Lindner. DEFENCE FUND RINGFENCED Earlier, the defence ministry said a special 100 billion-euro fund for modernising the armed forces was safe. "In principle, the Bundeswehr special fund is exempt from the budget freeze," the ministry said in a statement, making clear that also applied to projects partially financed from regular defence spending in future. A manager for a major German defence company, speaking on condition of anonymity, said there was nevertheless a lack of clarity about next year's general defence budget, including long-running projects needing financing authorisation. Some 20 billion euros-worth of those authorisations could be at risk, he said, although the sector did not expect cuts given the government's commitment to defence. The constitutional court ruling has raised fears over the future competitiveness of German firms and the loss of jobs abroad. The crisis could hobble the wider European economy, said the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). "If there is less investment and spending in Germany over the next few years because there is less money available, this will inevitably have an impact on the EU economy," the head of the OECD's Germany desk Robert Grundke told Reuters. Germany's steel sector added its voice to the growing jitters, warning that the court ruling had put a question mark over more than 40 billion euros in planned investments. These comments highlight major uncertainty among Germany's industrial firms, which are already struggling with higher inflation and interest rates and are increasingly looking to more favourable markets such as the United States.
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By Natalie Grover (Reuters) -Oil prices dipped about 2% on Thursday, extending losses after the postponement of an OPEC+ meeting stoked expectations that the group might not deepen output cuts next year. Brent crude futures were down $1.40, or about 1.7%, at $80.56 a barrel by 1434 GMT after falling as much as 4% on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid $1.37, also about 1.4%, to $75.73 after dropping as much as 5% in the previous session. In a surprise move on Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia delayed to Nov. 30 a ministerial meeting at which they were expected to discuss oil output cuts. Producers were struggling to agree on output levels ahead of the meeting originally set for Nov. 26, OPEC+ sources said, suggesting that the disagreement was largely linked to a trio of African nations. Angola, Congo and Nigeria are seeking to raise their 2024 supply quotas above the provisional levels agreed at the June meeting of the OPEC+ producer group. "We think Nigeria can be assuaged as the leadership values its longstanding OPEC membership and improving ties with Saudi Arabia," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft. "However, it may be more difficult to bridge the gap with Angola, which has been a moodier member of the producer group since it joined in 2007." Although internal upheavals have been quelled effectively in the past, this latest episode lays bare the enormity of the task that OPEC+ must accomplish, said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. "What is certain is continuous volatility with a plausible price swing to the extent of $10+ after next Thursday’s meeting and possibly even before," he said. The questions over OPEC+ supply come as data showed that U.S. crude stocks jumped by 8.7 million barrels last week, much more than the 1.16 million build analysts had expected. [EIA/S] On the demand side, there was more bleak news. Though a survey showed the downturn in euro zone business activity eased in November, data suggested the bloc's economy will contract again this quarter as consumers continue to rein in spending. U.S. trade is expected to be muted on Thursday because of the Thanksgiving public holiday.
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(Reuters) -Oil prices fell by more than 1% on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session, after OPEC+ postponed a ministerial meeting, leading to speculation that producers might cut output less than earlier anticipated. Brent futures were down $1.02, or 1.2%, at $80.94 a barrel by 0625 GMT, after falling as much as 4% on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude dipped 87 cents, or 1.1%, to $76.23, after declining as much as 5% in the previous session. Trade was expected to remain muted due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. In a surprise move, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia delayed to Nov. 30 a ministerial meeting where they were expected to discuss oil output cuts. Producers were struggling to agree on output levels and hence possible reductions ahead of the meeting originally set for Nov. 26, OPEC+ sources said. Three OPEC+ sources, however, said this was linked to African countries, which are smaller producers in the group, which somewhat eased investor concerns. Analysts said that Angola, Congo and Nigeria were seeking to raise their 2024 supply quotas above the provisional levels agreed at the OPEC+ June meeting. "At that meeting, OPEC squared the books on increasing UAE’s quota... by reducing the targets for the African nations that were underperforming their required production numbers," said Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, in a client note. Angola and Congo have been producing below their 2024 production targets, whilst Nigeria has been able to increase output above target due to the improving security situation in the oil-rich Niger Delta. "We think Nigeria can be assuaged as the leadership values its longstanding OPEC membership and improving ties with Saudi Arabia... However, it may be more difficult to bridge the gap with Angola which has been a moodier member of the producer group since it joined in 2007," said RBC's Croft. "Disagreement between members will likely increase volatility within the market over the course of the next week," analysts at ING Bank said in a note. The questions over OPEC+ supply come as data showed U.S. crude stocks jumped by 8.7 million barrels last week, which was much more than the 1.16 million build that analysts had expected. [EIA/S] U.S. oil rigs remained unchanged at 500 in the week to Nov. 22, energy services firm Baker Hughes said in its closely followed report on Wednesday. [RIG/U] Meanwhile, about 3% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico, or around 61,165 barrels of daily output, was shut in by an underwater pipeline leak, the U.S. Coast Guard said on Wednesday.
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Investing.com-- Gold prices steadied in Asian trade on Wednesday after briefly touching key highs as the prospect of no more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve spurred continued flows into the yellow metal. But a rally in gold prices now appeared to have cooled, as the minutes of the Fed’s late-October meeting, released on Tuesday, showed the bank sticking to its higher-for-longer outlook on interest rates. While markets remained convinced that the Fed will raise rates no further, the Fed minutes spurred some doubts over when the central bank will begin trimming rates. CME Group’s Fedwatch tool showed traders reconsidering expectations of a March 2024 rate cut. Spot gold was flat at $1,999.39 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in December steadied at $2,000.65 an ounce by 00:21 ET (05:21 GMT). Futures had risen as high as $2,009.80 an ounce on Tuesday, before cutting some gains after the Fed minutes. Fed rate cut outlook uncertain as minutes reiterate higher-for-longer outlook Gold saw a series of strong gains in recent sessions, as weak U.S. labor and inflation data spurred increased bets that the Fed was done raising interest rates. But the outlook for the yellow metal remained uncertain, especially given that the Fed likely plans to keep rates higher for longer. The central bank has signaled that rates will remain above 5% until at least end-2024. The prospect of higher-for-longer rates bodes poorly for gold, given that rising rates push up the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal. This notion had battered gold over the past year, as the Fed embarked on one of its most aggressive rate hike cycles. Higher rates are also expected to keep gold gains limited in the coming months, or at least until the Fed signals a clear plan to begin loosening policy. The dollar paused a recent losing streak on Wednesday, and recovered slightly from near three-month lows, which also pressured gold prices. Still, the yellow metal was trading up nearly 10% so far in 2023, aided by some safe haven demand as global economic conditions worsened. Copper dips from two-month high, more China, supply cues awaited Among industrial metals, copper prices fell from two-month highs on Wednesday as traders awaited more economic cues from top importer China. Copper futures fell 0.4% to $3.7897 a pound. While media reports said that Beijing was planning to roll out more stimulus measures, particularly for the property sector, traders were now awaiting actual moves from the Chinese government. Traders were also watching for any more disruptions in global copper supply, following major mine closures in Peru and Panama, which are expected to tighten markets in the coming months.
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B of A: “We forecast 5000 by year-end 2024 for the $SPX (+10% from today). .. we are past maximum macro uncertainty. The market has absorbed significant geopolitical shocks .. We’re bullish not because we expect the Fed to cut, but because of what the Fed has accomplished.”
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Investing.com -- Oil prices retreated Tuesday, handing back some recent gains amid caution ahead of the weekend’s eagerly-awaited meeting of a group of top producers. By 09:45 ET (13.45 GMT), the U.S. crude futures traded 1% lower at $77.04 a barrel, while the Brent contract dropped 1% to $81.54 a barrel. The crude benchmarks gained around 2% on Monday, adding on to Friday’s 4% rise, after Reuters reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, is set to consider whether to make additional oil supply cuts to shore up prices when it meets on Nov. 26. OPEC+ meeting looms large Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+ have already pledged oil output cuts of about 5 million barrels per day, or about 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022. This figure includes a voluntary reduction by Saudi Arabia of one million barrels per day and a 300,000 barrels a day cut in Russian oil exports, both of which last until the end of 2023. “Growing expectations that we will see some action taken by OPEC+ at their upcoming meeting this weekend are providing support,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “Speculators will not want to go into this weekend with sizeable short positions. Given expectations, we will likely have to see at least Saudi Arabia rolling over their additional voluntary cut into 2024.” That said, even if OPEC+ extends the cuts into next year, the global oil market will still see a slight surplus of supply in 2024, said Toril Bosoni, the head of the International Energy Agency's oil markets and industry division earlier Tuesday. Fed minutes awaited, dollar battered by rate pause bets Weakness in the US Dollar Index -- which has dropped to a 2-½ month low – was also a major support point for oil and other commodities priced in the greenback. A drop in the dollar came as traders priced in bets that the Fed was done raising interest rates, and could potentially begin cutting rates by as soon as March 2024. The minutes of the Fed’s late-October meeting, which are due later on Tuesday, are expected to shed more light on this notion. U.S. inventories also due Despite the recent gains, oil has dropped about 16% since late September, posting four straight weeks of losses, on concerns of worsening demand, and as crude output in the U.S., the world's top producer, held at record highs. Data released last week showed a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories, and the latest U.S. inventory reports are forecast to show crude and stockpiles rose again the following week. This week's first report from the American Petroleum Institute is due later Tuesday, followed by the official numbers from the Energy Information Administration, on Wednesday. (Ambar Warrick contributed to this item.)
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By Florence Tan SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil futures fell on Tuesday, reversing steep gains made in the past two sessions, as investors turned cautious ahead of a meeting of OPEC+ this Sunday when the producer group may discuss deepening supply cuts. Brent crude futures fell 64 cents, or 0.8%, to $81.68 a barrel by 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $77.21 a barrel, down 62 cents, or 0.8%. Both contracts climbed about 2% on Monday after three OPEC+ sources told Reuters that OPEC+, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, was set to consider whether to make additional oil supply cuts when it meets on Nov. 26. Those gains were trimmed on Tuesday. "Investors took a wait-and-see attitude to confirm the actual OPEC+ decision," said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at NLI Research Institute. OPEC+ is likely to extend or even deepen oil supply cuts into next year, eight analysts have predicted. RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said: "We see some scope for the group to do a deeper reduction, but we would anticipate that Saudi Arabia would seek additional barrels from other members to share the burden of the adjustment." Reopening the quota agreements reached in June could prove challenging and could lead to protracted negotiations,and hence the leadership may look for more voluntary adjustments from individual producers, she added in a note. A Singapore-based trader said OPEC+ action above and beyond a rollover of current cuts has been partially priced into the market. Oil prices have dropped about 16% since late September as crude output in the U.S., the world's top producer, held at record highs, while the market was concerned about demand growth, especially from the world's largest oil importer, China. Traders were also watching for signs of demand destruction from a possible U.S. recession in 2024 and considering last week's warning about possible deflation from Walmart (NYSE:WMT), the largest U.S. retailer. U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles likely rose last week, while distillates inventories were seen dropping, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Weekly stockpile reports from the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration are due later on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
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Investing.com -- U.S. stocks edged higher in subdued trading Monday, at the start of a holiday-shortened week that includes the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting as well as earnings from new tech favorite Nvidia. By 09:30 ET (14:30 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 35 points, or 0.1%, higher, S&P 500 gained 8 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq Composite climbed 65 points, or 0.5%. Fed minutes loom large With the focus very much on what the policymakers at the U.S. central bank are going to do next with interest rates, the minutes from its Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting on Tuesday, a day earlier than usual, due to this week’s Thanksgiving holiday, will be in the spotlight. Traders have nearly fully priced in the likelihood that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in December, with odds increasing that the next move will be a cut, likely by the start of summer next year. Microsoft gains on Altman link The quarterly corporate earnings season has largely run its course, but there is still one more of the Magnificent Seven megacap companies, whose massive share gains this year have led equity indexes higher, left to report. Chip designer Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is due on Tuesday, and its results will be followed closely given it has become a focal point of this year's surge in enthusiasm over generative artificial intelligence. Elsewhere, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) stock rose 1.6% after its decision to employ Sam Altman to lead a new advanced artificial intelligence research team, just days after he was forced out as CEO of OpenAI. Reuters reported that OpenAI's staff has threatened to quit the artificial intelligence startup and join former Altman unless the board resigns. Citigroup (NYSE:C) stock rose 0.3% after CEO Jane Fraser announced a series of management changes, according to a memo to staff. Oil rises on hopes of further output cuts Oil prices rose Monday, extending recent gains following reports that a group of major producers may discuss deeper output cuts when they meet later this month. By 09:30 ET, the U.S. crude futures traded 1.9% higher at $77.49 a barrel, while the Brent contract climbed 1.9% to $82.12 a barrel. Crude gained 4% on Friday and has continued to rise Monday after Reuters reported, citing sources, that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, is set to consider whether to make additional oil supply cuts to shore up prices when it meets on Nov. 26. OPEC+ has already pledged total oil output cuts of 5.16 million barrels per day, or about 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022. Additionally, gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,970.90/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.3% higher at 1.0936. (Oliver Gray contributed to this item.)
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By Rae Wee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar slid to a two-month low on Monday, extending a downtrend from last week as traders reaffirmed their belief that U.S. rates have peaked and turned their attention to when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates. The yuan struck three-month highs in both the onshore and offshore markets, propped up by China's central bank, which gave the Australian and New Zealand dollars a leg up, as the two are often used as liquid proxies for the yuan. The dollar index in Asia trade bottomed out at 103.53, its weakest level since Sept. 1, extending its nearly 2% decline from last week - the sharpest weekly fall since July. Against the weaker greenback, the euro hit its highest since August at $1.09365, while the yen firmed at a one-month high of 148.68 per dollar. Markets have priced out the risk of further rate increases from the Fed after a slew of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic indicators last week, particularly after an inflation reading that came in below estimates. Focus now turns to how soon the first rate cuts could come, with futures pricing in a 30% chance that the Fed could begin lowering rates as early as March, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "Market pricing for FOMC policy is likely to remain pretty steady, so the dollar should have very few catalysts to move it around this week," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) (CBA). "If we do see risk appetite improve again, then the dollar can definitely weaken further." Sterling edged 0.14% higher to $1.2480, flirting near a two-month peak, while the euro last bought $1.09185 ahead of flash PMI readings in the euro zone due this week. Also due this week are minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, which will offer some colour on policymakers' thinking as they held rates steady for a second time this month. "(The) FOMC minutes may be framed as a 'Fed pivot', thereby underscoring risk-on rallies favouring softer U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. dollar, alongside buying in risk assets," said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank. "The upshot is that the FOMC minutes may overstate incremental dovish shifts and likelihood of the Fed's intended pivot signals." The Japanese yen remained on the stronger side of 150 per dollar and was last 0.3% higher at 149.17. Elsewhere in Asia, the yuan leapt to a more than three-month high against the dollar in both the onshore and offshore markets, as the central bank guided the unit higher and exporters rushed to convert their dollar receipts into local currency. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1700 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1703 per dollar. The Aussie was last 0.5% higher at $0.6546, having struck a three-month high of $0.6563 earlier in the session, while the kiwi gained 0.54% to $0.6025. China on Monday left its benchmark lending rates unchanged at a monthly fixing, matching expectations, as a weaker yuan continued to limit further monetary easing and policymakers waited to see the effects of previous stimulus on credit demand. The yuan, which has fallen nearly 4% against the dollar this year in the onshore market, continues to be pressured by a faltering economic recovery in China and as investor sentiment remains fragile. "I think the theme of a soft Chinese economic recovery will persist for a while," said CBA's Kong. "Until we get a more meaningful recovery in the Chinese economy, I think that will be a headwind for the (yuan), Aussie and the kiwi in the near term."
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that is so funny > @Pal said: "Why do people hate Michael Burry?? He has called 50 of the last 2 stock market crashes"
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Rest assured we are here and most are also busy with other stuffs like you and we are ready to support one another as nobody knows it all we learn from each other. > @CharlesW said: it is sad as there seems to be very few participants in this chat room or most of them are very shy or reserved. I have wasted a lot of time and money chasing so called gurus and such other self proclaimed professionals and I have not found any of them to provide the depth of training that your course has. Once I have completed it and can put my education from your course to good use becoming a full time forex trader I will be encouraging all I know to take your course so they to can get out of this rat race working for others to help make them rich!
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@Arunas #PRO Traders
The House of Representatives passed (https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/14/house-passes-bill-to-avoid-government-shutdown-senate-to-vote-next.html) a bill to avoid a government shutdown (shutdown) Some parts of the government will be funded until January 19 and others until February 2, 2024. On a related note, I am attaching an infographic of the history of shutdowns in the US by length of number of days. Note that there has never been a government shutdown after 1996. Need money - they'll print it!)
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By Florence Tan SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices were little changed on Friday but on track for their fourth straight week of losses after tumbling about 5% to a four month-low on Thursday on worries over global demand. Brent futures edged up 4 cents, or 0.1%, to $77.46 a barrel at 0529 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was at $72.95, up 5 cents, or 0.1%. Both have lost around a sixth of their value over the last four weeks. "Oil prices are down slightly this year despite demand exceeding our optimistic expectations," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. "Non-core OPEC supply has been much stronger than expected, partly offset by OPEC cuts." Prompt monthly spreads for both contracts have flipped to contango, a market trend where prompt prices are lower than those in future months indicating healthy supply. Oil's decline this week was mainly triggered by a steep rise in U.S. crude inventories and production sustaining at record levels, which analysts say triggered concerns of weak demand in the world's largest oil consumer amid high output. JPMorgan commodities research said on Friday its global oil demand tracker showed demand averaged 101.6 million barrels a day (bpd) in the first half of November, running 200,000 bpd lower than its projection for the month. Analysts said that the recent drop in prices is also likely to make Saudi Arabia extend its additional voluntary oil output cut of 1 million bpd into 2024. "It has become clearer that the oil balance for the remainder of this year is not as tight as initially expected," ING analysts said in a note. "As things stand, the market is still expected to return to surplus in 1Q24." A rollover of additional Saudi supply cuts into early 2024 should help erase the expected surplus and provide some support to the market, ING said.
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By Natalie Grover (Reuters) -Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, extending losses from the previous session as signals of higher supply from the United States met concern over lacklustre energy demand from China. Brent futures were down 70 cents at $80.48 a barrel by 1250 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) shed 65 cents to $76.01. Both benchmarks fell more than 1.5% in the previous session. WTI's front-month contract also traded below the price for the second month, a structure known as contango, suggesting that investors expect prices to increase. The front month's discount to the second month traded at minus 17 cents on Thursday. "Clearly, the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the structure is an ominous sign; one that implies an oversupplied physical market," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. Worries have been amplified by the U.S. crude stocks that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said rose by 3.6 million barrels last week to 421.9 million barrels, far exceeding analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll. [EIA/S] U.S. crude production held steady at a record 13.2 million barrels per day (bpd). Varga said the fall in crude prices flies in the face of recent estimates of global demand-supply fundamentals from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), both of which predicted supply tightness in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, October inflation data from major economic hubs including the euro zone, the United States and the UK have also been encouraging, he added. Even China, where the property sector remains in trouble, is seeing green shoots of economic recovery. Its economic activity perked up in October as industrial output increased at a faster pace and retail sales growth beat expectations. "The current price drop is taking place amid a seemingly auspicious backdrop, which suggests that investors simply do not buy into the ‘Q4 stock draw’ narrative; something that is not backed up by the recent weekly EIA reports either," said Varga. One of the factors likely to be spooking investors is an expected slowdown in Chinese oil refinery throughput. Runs eased in October from the previous month's highs as industrial fuel demand weakened and refining margins narrowed. In the Middle East, with the Israel-Hamas conflict appearing to be escalating in Gaza, U.S. officials on Wednesday vowed to enforce oil sanctions against Iran, which has long been a backer of Hamas.
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@PivotBoss #P I V O T B O S S
**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [November 16, 2023]: Digestion Ahead of Expansion?** NOVEMBER 16, 2023 — THURSDAY AM The ES, NQ, and YM have developed narrow 2-day ranges ahead of early pre-market data today. Will this digestion lead to expansion ahead? Watch 4500 in the ES, as a failure here could lead to a return to the breakout point from CPI day. Overall, the bullish trend remains intact in the YM, but keep an eye on 34,800 in case of failure. The NQ has the best rejection day location at the quarterly high, so watch 15,800 for signs of weakness. Crude Oil bears remain in control through the first week of December.
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By Michael Martina SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) -China is ready to be a partner and friend of the United States, and there is plenty of room for bilateral cooperation, President Xi Jinping told American executives in San Francisco on Wednesday, as Beijing looks to reassure global business and counter his country's struggles to entice foreign investment. The U.S. executives dined with Xi on the margins of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum following a day of talks between Xi and U.S. President Joe Biden, aimed at steadying relations between the world's two largest economies. Xi received a standing ovation as he entered the room, and two more before and after he took the stage to speak. The world needs China and the U.S. to work together, and it is wrong to view China as a threat and play a zero-sum game against it, Xi said in a speech to the audience, including some hand-picked by Beijing. "Whatever stage of development it may reach, China will never pursue hegemony or expansion, and will never impose its will on others. China does not seek spheres of influence, and will not fight a cold war or a hot war with anyone," Xi said. He assured his audience that "no matter how the global landscape evolves, the historical trend of peaceful coexistence between China and the United States will not change." Xi's optimistic tone toward relations with the U.S. was at odds with the negative chorus of voices in Washington, where the U.S. Congress finds unusual bipartisan consensus in the need to counter Beijing. The high-security dinner was a chance for companies to hear directly from China's leader as they search for ways to navigate China's economic slowdown, a U.S. push to "de-risk" some American supply chains away from China, and uncertainty caused by China's expanding security rules. But Xi directed much of his speech toward the American people, and spent little time on commercial relations with the U.S. "I would like to let you know that China sympathizes deeply with the American people, especially the young, for the sufferings that fentanyl has inflicted upon them," he said. China and the U.S. reached an agreement to curb fentanyl production in earlier talks between Xi and Biden. The event attracted nearly 400 people, including government officials and academics. Courses served included coffee-crusted black angus flat iron steak and a vegetable curry with squash and rice. Executives from U.S. corporate giants such as Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL)'s Tim Cook, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK)'s Laurence Fink, Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO)'s Hock Tan, Bridgewater Associates' Ray Dalio and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)'s Albert Bourla were at the dinner tables. CONTROVERSY U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and other senior U.S. officials also attended the event, which generated controversy due to reported high ticket costs for companies seeking to brush shoulders with Xi. Mike Gallagher, the Republican chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives' select committee on China, had called it "unconscionable" that American companies would pay thousands of dollars to join a dinner with a government the United States says is committing genocide against Muslim Uyghurs. Gallagher sent a letter on Monday to the hosts – the U.S.-China Business Council and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations – demanding a complete list of individuals and companies that purchased tickets to the dinner. Analysts have said Xi's speech alone is unlikely to dramatically alter U.S. business sentiment about China. U.S. and Chinese officials have often described bilateral business and trade relations as the ballast in otherwise contentious ties with the U.S. But the growing economic and geopolitical rivalry between the superpowers has placed companies from both countries in the crosshairs of the other's government. China has grown more suspicious of engagement with Western companies, in line with Xi's emphasis on self-reliance and national security, and this year it has cracked down on some U.S. consultancy and due-diligence firms, further damaging investor confidence. But Gary Dvorchak, whose family hosted Xi in Iowa in 1985 when the Chinese leader was a young official, and who was invited by Beijing to attend the dinner, said Xi's appearance was savvy public relations, allowing the ruling Communist Party to show a Chinese domestic audience he has appeal to regular people. "It humanizes him and it gives him an ability to show a connection to the American people and bypass the American media," Dvorchak said.
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it is sad as there seems to be very few participants in this chat room or most of them are very shy or reserved. I have wasted a lot of time and money chasing so called gurus and such other self proclaimed professionals and I have not found any of them to provide the depth of training that your course has. Once I have completed it and can put my education from your course to good use becoming a full time forex trader I will be encouraging all I know to take your course so they to can get out of this rat race working for others to help make them rich!
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hahaha yeah that's it > @Pal said: "Why do people hate Michael Burry?? He has called 50 of the last 2 stock market crashes"
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(Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes opened higher on Wednesday after cooling producer prices supported views that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates, while Target shares surged following an upbeat holiday-quarter forecast. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 79.02 points, or 0.23%, at the open to 34,906.72. The S&P 500 opened higher by 9.60 points, or 0.21%, at 4,505.30, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 52.89 points, or 0.38%, to 14,147.27 at the opening bell.
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By Brigid Riley TOKYO (Reuters) -The dollar sputtered at broadly lower levels on Wednesday after slumping overnight as a surprisingly softer U.S. inflation reading bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve has reached the end of its monetary tightening cycle. The offshore Chinese yuan, meanwhile, received some support after domestic industrial output and retail sales growth beat expectations. The activity data generally appeared to be "further evidence of very slow progress being made" in China's economy, said Rob Carnell, Asia-Pacific Head of Research and Chief Economist at ING. The offshore yuan briefly ticked up to a three-month high of $7.2385 against the dollar before easing back somewhat to $7.2477. At the same time, glum news continued to roll out of China's property sector, with sales falling at a faster pace in October and investment in real estate slumping, official data showed. With no end in sight for problems in the sector, that's likely to seep into other parts of the Chinese economy, "keeping them just a little bit mediocre," said Carnell. The New Zealand dollar, which can act as a proxy for China, ticked up to a one-month high of $0.6029 against the dollar. The sell-off in the dollar drove a rally for many of its peer currencies, with the euro sitting just below an over two-month high hit on Tuesday. The frenetic currency market activity was sparked by data showing U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in October, with the annual rise in underlying inflation the smallest in two years. In the 12 months through October, the CPI climbed 3.2% - below economists' estimates - after rising 3.7% in September. The data prompted market participants to all but eliminate the chance of another rate hike at the Fed's December monetary policy meeting, while bets of a rate cut in May next year increased to around 50%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Traders reacted quickly to the shift in market pricing by sending the dollar tumbling 1.5% overnight against major currencies. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields, which have helped to boost the greenback, tumbled. The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of peers, last stood at 104.14, not far from Tuesday's two-month low of 103.98. With the dollar on the back foot, the euro settled around $1.08725 after touching its highest since August the previous day. The pound was fetching $1.2489, around levels last seen in September. The greenback's overnight fall saw some relief for the languishing yen, which eased off Monday's fresh one-year low of 151.92. Dollar/yen crept up slightly to 150.68, as data revealed Japan's economy contracted in July-September, complicating the central bank's efforts to gradually exit from its ultra-easy monetary policy. Still, Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore, sees softer U.S. yields and the risk of intervention by the Japanese government limiting the likelihood of the yen weakening much further than it already has. Between those factors and a Fed which is likely to retain a somewhat hawkish tone, dollar/yen is a "range-bound story for the time being," he said.
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"Why do people hate Michael Burry?? He has called 50 of the last 2 stock market crashes"
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even Nav has his moments > @dros said: he's been more wrong than right recently
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Investing.com -- Headline inflation in the U.S. slowed by more than expected in October, in a boost for Federal Reserve officials keen on corralling price pressures in the world's largest economy. The Labor Department's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.2% in October on an annualized basis, decelerating from a rate of 3.7% in September, due in large part to a fall in gas prices. It was the yearly reading's first decline in four months. Month-on-month, the measure was unchanged, down from an uptick of 0.4%. Economists had seen the figures at 3.3% annually and 0.1% from the prior month. Bringing inflation back down to the Fed's 2% target rate has been the major objective of a long-standing series of interest rate hikes by the central bank, meaning that policymakers will likely welcome a renewed cooling in price growth. Core CPI, which takes out more volatile items like food and energy, rose by 4.0% annually and 0.2% monthly. Although this pace was also slower than forecasts, it points to some lingering stickiness in inflation -- a concern that has led various policymakers in recent days to suggest that rates may not be "sufficiently restrictive" to tamp down price growth to 2%. Indeed, Chair Jerome Powell noted last week that the Fed "will not hesitate" to further raise borrowing costs from their current range of 5.25% to 5.50% "if it becomes appropriate." The Fed, which held interest rates steady at their last meeting, is scheduled to hold its next two-day gathering on Dec. 12-13. U.S. stock futures surged in the wake of the data on Tuesday, while Treasury yields, which typically move inversely to prices, dipped.
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USD HAD SOME RED FOLDER NEWS THAT HAS TEMPORARY IMPACT
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