$KEY

Investing.com -- Most Asian stocks rose slightly on Wednesday as markets weighed worsening economic conditions in the region against the prospect of a pause in the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle this month. But China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes lagged their peers, reversing early gains after data showed the country’s trade surplus hit its lowest level since April 2022, driven by a sharp drop in exports. A steady decline in imports also raised concerns over just how sustainable an economic rebound in the country will remain this year, as it grapples with slowing overseas demand for Chinese goods. But on the other hand, technology-heavy indexes were key outperformers for the day, benefiting from continued bets that the Fed will pause its rate hike cycle next week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index added 1.1%, while the Taiwan Weighted index rose 0.7%, with both bourses buoyed by heavyweight technology stocks. South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.3%. This trend also spurred some gains in broader Asian markets, with India’s Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex 30 indexes rising 0.3% each in early trade. Focus in India is also on a Reserve Bank interest rate decision on Thursday. Still, fears of worsening economic conditions across the globe kept sentiment towards risk-heavy Asian stocks largely muted. Even if the Fed pauses its rate hike cycle next week, markets will still have to contend with rates remaining higher for longer, as well as a potential recession in large portions of the globe. Australia’s ASX 200 lagged its peers for the most part, rising 0.2% after data showed that the country’s economy barely grew in the first quarter of 2023, amid pressure from high inflation and interest rates. Major Australian bank stocks were the chief support to the ASX 200, following an interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX were the worst performers for the day, down 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively, as they saw a heavy dose of profit taking after racing to 33-year highs in recent sessions. Analysts questioned whether a Japanese stock rally had any legs left, given that markets have largely priced in the factors that powered it - chiefly a dovish Bank of Japan and a strong quarterly earnings season. Markets are now awaiting more cues on the Japanese economy from a revised first-quarter GDP reading, due on Thursday.

$AAPL Jun23 200 C $FTCH Jun09 5.5 C $DPST Jun09 5.5 C $META Jun09 275 C $CCJ Sep 35 C $CVNA Jun 20 C $KEY Jun09 10 C $GOOGL Jun09 130 C $BEKE Oct 20 C $BEKE Jan 20 C $GOOGL Jun09 126 P

$AAPL Jun23 200 C $FTCH Jun09 5.5 C $DPST Jun09 5.5 C $META Jun09 275 C $CCJ Sep 35 C $CVNA Jun 20 C $KEY Jun09 10 C $GOOGL Jun09 130 C $BEKE Oct 20 C $BEKE Jan 20 C $GOOGL Jun09 126 P

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ledger-ceo-says-crypto-key-recovery-service-makes-self-custody-easier

**Events to Look Out for This Week** Next week’s calendar includes the ECB Financial Stability Review and Fed Beige Book but it will mostly be old news given the number of Fedspeakers who have hit the wires since then. Key in next week’s data slate will likely be the US Jobs report along with the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Overall, stagflation concerns look very real, amid hopes that the June hike will be the last, and markets could continue to price in that more hikes are to come from the Fed, ECB and especially from the BOE. https://analysis.hfeu.com/en-eu/695989/

**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [May 26, 2023]: Range-Bound Ahead of Memorial Day** MAY 26, 2023 — FRIDAY AM The NQ continues to be unfadable, and remains quite bullish, which could eventually lead price to the 14822 key range target above. The ES is sitting at the center of its expanding range, and may see further range-bound action heading into the holiday-extended weekend. Crude Oil is back within its 4-point range, but continues to have a bullish bias as long as price remains above 70. Gold can't find a strong low, and remains within a bearish downtrend in the short term.

**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [May 25, 2023]: Key Levels to Watch** MAY 25, 2023 — THURSDAY AM The NQ has rallied in afterhours and pre-market trading behind the strength of earnings from $NVDA, as the NQ remains highly bullish. With GDP and Initial Jobless Claims due out, we could see additional volatility ahead. Watch yLO for rejection in Crude Oil, which could lead to strength ahead. Gold needs above 1985 to force another squeeze.

Investing.com - European stock markets are expected to open lower Wednesday as investors bemoan the lack of a deal to raise the U.S. debt ceiling ahead of the release of key economic data. At 02:00 ET (06:00 GMT), the DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.7% lower, CAC 40 futures in France dropped 0.6% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. fell 0.6%. U.S. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy held “productive” talks on Monday over raising the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, but there was little sign of progress yesterday. There is now just over a week before a possible first-ever U.S. government default with U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning that it’s now “highly likely” that the U.S. government will run out of sufficient cash as soon as June 1. Back in Europe, Germany’s Ifo survey of current business conditions, due later in the session, will be closely watched for clues of sentiment in the region’s largest economy. Tuesday’s PMI data showed that German business activity expanded for a fourth month running in May, with the services sector revival more than offsetting a manufacturing decline. U.K. inflation slowed in April, with the annual figure coming in at 8.7%, still above expectations, from 10.1% in March as the Bank of England’s prolonged hiking cycle began to have an impact. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is set to speak later Wednesday, while ECB President Christine Lagarde is also scheduled to lead the celebrations of the central bank's 25th anniversary. The main earnings scheduled for release come from the U.K., with insurer Aviva (LON:AV) and energy company SSE (LON:SSE) on the slate. However, the highlight will be from Marks & Spencer (LON:MKS), with the retail giant likely to post a decline in full-year pretax profit as it cuts margins to keep its food prices competitive. Oil prices rose Wednesday after industry data registered a sharp drop in U.S. inventories, pointing to tighter supplies as the U.S. driving season draws nearer. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed that crude stocks fell by about 6.8 million barrels in the week ended May 19, while gasoline inventories dropped by about 6.4 million. If confirmed by official data later in the session, gasoline stocks would have declined for the third consecutive week to their lowest pre-Memorial Day levels since 2014. By 02:00 ET, U.S. crude futures traded 1.3% higher at $73.82 a barrel, while the Brent contract climbed 1% to $77.64. Both benchmarks gained on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia's energy minister warned short sellers to "watch out", raising the possibility that a group of top producers will cut production once more when they meet in early June. Additionally, gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,980.15/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.1% higher at 1.0785.

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/05/23/bitcoin-jumps-to-key-price-resistance-as-hong-kong-opens-crypto-trading-for-retail-investors/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

$NVDA Here are some key things to watch for in Nvidia's earnings report: Earnings per share: Analysts are expecting Nvidia to report earnings of $1.22 per share on revenue of $8.1 billion. This would represent a year-over-year decline of 21% in earnings and 12% in revenue. Guidance for fiscal Q4 and the full year of 2023: Analysts are expecting Nvidia to report earnings of $1.17 per share on revenue of $7.8 billion for fiscal Q4. For the full year of 2023, analysts are expecting earnings of $5.21 per share on revenue of $32.6 billion.

S&P 500 (SPX) rallied 1.6% last week to hit the 100 weekly moving average (WMA) for the first time since last August. The benchmark U.S. stock market index also printed the highest level (4212.91) in 9 months. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) added only 0.4% as it struggles to clear the 100-WMA. The index had previously recorded two consecutive red weekly candles. Tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) rose as much as 3% in the best week since March. The index now trades at its highest levels since August 2022. Looking forward to this week, the key economic data releases this week in the U.S. are the core PCE, durable goods, and the University of Michigan reports on Friday. Moreover, the FOMC meeting minutes are out on Wednesday, while several Fed officials are also due to speak this week, including governor Waller and presidents Bullard, Bostic, Daly, Logan, and Collins. Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that he could take a wait-and-see approach at the central bank's next meeting in June. Q1 earnings ‘much better than feared’ With 95% of S&P 500 companies having reported actual results, the Q1 earnings season is close to completion. According to FactSet, 78% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. The S&P 500 earnings are down 2.2%, with Goldman Sachs analysts saying the earnings so far have been “much better than feared.” “We view these results as broadly consistent with our forecast of a moderate growth drag from tighter bank credit (-0.4pp on 2023 GDP growth, Q4/Q4 basis). Bank credit has clearly deteriorated for some businesses, but the financial effects so far appear meaningfully larger than the economic effects, in the aggregate,” the analysts said in a client note. Some of the most important earnings releases for this week include Zoom Video Communications (NASDAQ:ZM), Lowe’s (NYSE:LOW), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Costco (NASDAQ:COST), and Best Buy (NYSE:BBY). Debt ceiling talks continue The debt ceiling talks are set to continue today with U.S. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy due to meet to discuss the deal. Rep. McCarthy said yesterday that he had a "productive" call with Biden. Investors are focused on the progress as a failure to lift the debt ceiling would trigger a default. The Treasury officials said the U.S. has money to finance its commitments until “early June.” Goldman Sachs economists forecast that cash reserves could drop below critical $30B by June 8-9. “The most likely [scenario] is a full-fledged deal that suspends the debt limit to early 2025 along with spending caps (70% chance). There is a small chance this could be announced over the weekend (10%) but we think a deal is more likely later next week (30%) or shortly before the deadline (30%),” the economists said. The bank’s strategists also see the markets pricing more risk before a potential rally takes place if the deal is finally reached. On the other hand, Morgan Stanley analysts argue that the “bigger risk for markets now is that raising the debt ceiling could decrease market liquidity based on the sizeable Treasury issuance we expect over the six months after it passes.” What analysts are saying Here’s what sell-side analysts are saying about U.S. stocks. BTIG analysts: “We think the move last week was part of a last gasp blow-off in the Nasdaq. While there was a modest expansion of new highs last week, we will reiterate what we said last week that the weak parts of the market really need to start working or the risk is everything falls together. We saw a bit of the latter on Friday within the consumer space having one of its worst days of the year.” Morgan Stanley analysts: “We believe this rally will prove to be a head fake like last summer’s. In the very short term, we would not be surprised to see further marginal upside for the major averages if a debt ceiling deal is passed. However, we would view that as a false breakout/bull trap. In that event, the short-term upside could take us back toward the August highs at most, in our view, but should then quickly reverse.” BofA analysts: “We raise our S&P 500 2023 year-end target from 4000 to 4300 based on five indicators yielding a range from 3900 (Fair Value) to 4600 (Sentiment). We believe investors should ignore the snapshot multiple this target implies – a 21x multiple on 2023 EPS of $200E (tracking $210 after 1Q’s beat). 21x is elevated, but trough multiples have been higher (23x at COVID, 28x at GFC) and snapshot multiples are not particularly predictive. We use a multiple on normalized earnings in our framework, and even here find that this metric is strongly predictive but only over a long time horizon.” Sevens Report Research analysts: “Not-as-bad-as-feared events have largely fueled the YTD rally and that can continue, especially if the S&P 500 can sustainably breakout to new highs because that will create more “chasing.” But “not as bad as feared” cannot support a sustainable rally (one that lasts for quarters). Point being, the “pain trade is higher,” but at this point it’s long in the tooth. And while it’s not over, it can’t push the S&P 500 sustainably into the mid 4000’s (the valuation will get too stretched).” Oppenheimer analysts: “We believe underlying trend improvement following last year’s bear cycle supports a breakout in the S&P 500. High-beta cyclicals, under pressure since February, are also finding their footing, in our view. We see this potential for a beta bounce as the likely driver for a breakout.” Barclays analysts: “We would caution against an overly bullish interpretation (e.g., the rest of the market is cheap) as equities are still exposed to earnings risk and we see few upside catalysts, leaving risk/reward skewed asymmetrically to the downside. A range-bound market is more likely, in our view. That being said, we expect narrow leadership and greater dispersion among stock returns to create selective opportunities, and recommend seeking high-quality names at less demanding multiples.”

By Stella Qiu SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on a rally in regional chip shares on Monday after China banned some purchases from Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), while Wall Street futures struggled as U.S. debt ceiling negotiations approached crunch time after stalling last week. Europe is set to extend the caution, with pan-regional Euro Stoxx 50 futures pointing to a flat open. S&P 500 futures were also little changed while Nasdaq futures were up 0.1%. U.S. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet to discuss the debt ceiling on Monday, less than two weeks before the June 1 deadline after which Treasury expects the federal government will struggle to pay its debts. A failure to lift the debt ceiling would trigger a default, likely sparking chaos in financial markets and a spike in interest rates. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was last up 0.5%. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.8% to fresh 33-year highs, South Korea's KOSPI gained 0.7% and Hang Kong's Hang Seng index surged 1.3%. Sentiment was also buoyed by President Biden's remarks that he expected a thaw in frosty relations with China "very shortly". Beijing on Sunday barred U.S. firm Micron from selling memory chips to key domestic industries over security concerns, a move that helped stocks of Micron's rivals in China and elsewhere, which are seen benefiting as mainland firms seek memory products from other sources. Elsewhere, market jitters about the upcoming U.S. debt ceiling talks continued. "In the art of brinkmanship, it feels that to get a deal we must see greater market volatility," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. "While for much of last week the headlines were that a deal is within reach, the breakdown in talks from Republican negotiators on Friday has many thinking that we could be pushed right to the June deadline before we see an agreement." Jonathan Pingle, U.S. chief economist at UBS, views the Japanese yen and gold as best placed to benefit from a U.S. default. "Only a 1-month long impasse post the X-date is likely to cause a tightening of financing conditions sharp enough that it causes the dollar to rally strongly," said Pingle. On Friday, reports that debt ceiling negotiations had reached an impasse rattled markets even as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said U.S. interest rates might not need to rise as much given the tighter credit conditions from the banking crisis. Futures are pricing in an about a 90% chance that the Fed would keep rates unchanged at its next meeting in June, and a total of almost 50 basis points of cuts by the end of the year. That has knocked the dollar off a two-month top against a basket of major peers and was last at 103.05 on Monday, flat for the day. Meanwhile, regional U.S. bank shares continued to fall on Friday, as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reportedly warned that more mergers may be necessary after a series of bank failures. In Asia, China kept its key lending rates unchanged on Monday even as an ongoing economic recovery disappointed. Traders are also digesting the implications of the Group of Seven's "de-risk, not decouple" approach to China and supply chains flagged at the group's summit on Sunday. Beijing has summoned the Japanese ambassador to register protests over "hype around China-related issues" at the summit. Later in the week, the Fed will release minutes of the May meeting on Wednesday, while U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation data is due out on Friday. In the Treasuries market, debt ceiling concerns have created large distortions in the short-end of the yield curve as investors avoid bills that come due when the Treasury is at risk of running out of funds. The yield on the 1-month Treasury bill jumped 15 basis points to 5.6677% on Monday. Two-year yields were five basis points lower to 4.2387%, pulling away from a recent two-month high, while the 10-year yield also dipped four bps to 3.6536%. Oil prices took a hit. U.S. crude futures were down 0.9% to $70.94 per barrel, while Brent crude futures fell 0.8% to $75.01 per barrel. Gold prices were largely unchanged at $1,976.19 per ounce.

4235 still the key target to hit

IN THE EVENT OF RETRACEMENT, THESE ARE KEY LEVELS

I HIGHLIGHTED KEY LEVELS

We should see some support on the daily around 1.0770 the 120 day mov avg which has proved useful in the last. KEY support comes down around 1.0600. From there it would be fair to expect a bounce back up to 1.09ish for a new turn and challenge of the 1.06 support for break and drop to 1.01 on monthly basis.

no resistance heading up a lot more > @AlexandreVivant said: eur crashin jpy, key resistance at 149.250

eur crashin jpy, key resistance at 149.250

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-self-custody-advocate-explains-why-on-ramps-are-key-to-adoption

**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [May 17, 2023]: Outside Day for Crude Oil?** MAY 17, 2023 — WEDNESDAY AM The ES remains range-bound, and is moving higher within the developing 8-day range. Eventually, a breakout move will come...until then, look to fade the edges within the range. The NQ remains strong, and the YM could see a squeeze day ahead. yMID will be key for the YM. Crude Oil has seen a strong rejection of yLO at 70 and is working through yMID, which opens up yHI for a bullish outside day ahead. Gold has nearly reached the 1980 edge, but found the key range low.

**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [May 16, 2023]: Inside Days** MAY 16, 2023 — TUESDAY AM The ES remains at the center of a developing 7-day range, which has developed at the center of the 6-week trading range. Patience is key to avoid the chop at the center of the range, but a move to an edge is likely coming soon, which could provide a solid fade opportunity. The NQ and YM are going in opposite directions, while the ES remains flat. The ES and YM are currently Inside Day. Crude Oil bulls are trying to keep 70 bid for a shot at return to the 76-77 zone above, and Gold continues to quietly work lower toward 1980 support.

By Kevin Buckland TOKYO (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar remained under pressure on Tuesday, weighed down by the risk of a U.S. default as a standoff between Democrats and Republicans over raising the debt ceiling showed few signs of being resolved. The Aussie dollar flipped from early small gains to a loss after economic data from key trading partner China fell short of analysts' forecasts, adding to evidence of a sputtering COVID recovery. The yuan sank toward a two-month low. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers - was little changed at 102.47. Overnight, it retreated from a five-week high to lose 0.26%. The dollar had been buoyed last week by both safe-haven demand amid weak Chinese economic data and by a surprise jump in U.S. consumer inflation expectations, putting the risk of a June Federal Reserve rate rise back in play. This week, though, the looming borrowing limit - which Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated could be hit as soon as June 1 - has forced its way to the front of investors' minds. President Joe Biden expressed confidence a deal could be done in time ahead of an expected meeting with congressional leaders later on Tuesday. However, Republican House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy said the two sides were still far apart. "There's been a bit of complacency in the fact that the market is generally thinking that something will get done, but if you don't prepare for the worst, there could be a lot of pain," said Bart Wakabayashi, a branch manager at State Street (NYSE:STT) in Tokyo. "The interesting thing is the dollar is weak, and usually when there's risk off, people buy the dollar," he said. "So there's a big breakdown in correlation, and when correlations don't work, people don't know what to do." The euro, which has the greatest weight in the dollar index, was little changed at $1.0870 on Tuesday, after bouncing off a five-week low overnight. Sterling slipped 0.13% to $1.2515, following a 0.67% rally from Monday. The yen, which had been hit by a wider spread between U.S. and Japanese long-term yields, pulled itself off a nearly two-week low. The dollar lost 0.08% to 135.975 yen after rising to 136.32 on Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to around 3.49% in Tokyo from as high as 3.511% overnight. The Australian dollar, which is not part of the dollar index, erased small early gains ahead of Chinese retail sales and industrial production data, then sank after the release. It was last down 0.33% at $0.6678. "The Aussie's upside looks to have been capped for some time by investor concerns over China's outlook," said Sean Callow, a senior FX strategist at Westpac. "Today's data will set the Aussie back on its heels," he added, predicting the currency could ease to around 0.6645, the lower limit of its recent trading range. The dollar gained 0.2% to 6.9723 yuan in the offshore market, after touching 6.9749 on Monday for the first time since March 10.

U.S. futures are trading higher on Monday, mostly thanks to the better-than-feared news on the debt ceiling. Last week, the S&P 500 closed 0.3% lower after previously failing to close below 4,100 on a weekly basis. The forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 18.0, which puts it below the 5-year average and above the 10-year average. Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1%, which is a worrying sign given that the index had lost 1.2% in the first week of May. It now trades below the 100 weekly moving average (WMA). On the other hand, NASDAQ Composite Index gained 0.4% as mega-cap tech stocks continue to benefit from the increased macro uncertainty. Last week, the tech-heavy IXIC hit its highest level since August 2022. Overall, the trading volume last week was light. Communication Services and Consumer Discretionary did well. Looking forward to this week, the retail sales data for April is out on Thursday. Several Fed officials will also speak this week while investor focus will remain on the debt ceiling negotiations. Q1 earnings providing support to stocks As of May 12, 92% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results, according to FactSet. 78% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. “The improvement has been fairly broad-based, with the median estimate up by 1.2% over the last two months. The weaker dollar, cost-cutting initiatives, stabilization in some end-markets such as housing, cloud computing, and digital advertising, as well as stronger growth in Europe and China have all played a role,” UBS analysts wrote in a note to clients. Overall, the Q1 EPS for the S&P 500 is down 2.5%, much better than the expected -6.7%, according to FactSet. “If -2.5% is the actual decline for the quarter, it will mark the second straight quarter that the index has reported a decline in earnings,” FactSet analysts wrote. Key earnings reports to watch for this week are Home Depot (NYSE:HD), Target (NYSE:TGT), Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO), Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Walmart (NYSE:WMT), and Deere (NYSE:DE). What analysts are saying? UBS analysts: “Leading indicators of profit growth continue to suggest that caution in US equity positioning is warranted.” Vital Knowledge analysts: “The combination of earnings strength, the end of Fed rate hikes and continued US disinflation, and extreme negativity are all powerful equity tailwinds – this has been our thesis for months, and we’re sticking with it until something changes. There are many aspects of this market we don’t like, including valuations, breadth, and debt ceiling risks, but these don’t offset the aforementioned positives." Goldman Sachs analysts: “1Q results give us incremental confidence in our above-consensus EPS estimate of $224 in 2023, representing +1% growth. We believe the worst phase of negative earnings revisions is now behind us. However, we maintain our below-consensus 2024 EPS estimate of $237 (+5% growth), as we view consensus margin estimates as too optimistic. Risks to our profit outlook are tilted to the downside given uncertainty around banking stress. We expect real yields will rise and the P/E multiple will fall from 18x to 17x. If the P/E remains stable, it would represent 5% upside to our year-end target of 4000.” Roth MKM analysts: “While Breadth is thinning, rotation under the surface continues and tactically we can still engage with stocks, although the pool is getting smaller.” Citi analysts: “We maintain our ongoing call that earnings will prove resilient relative to historic recession compares. That said, we also suspect that headwinds to earnings growth will persist into 2024. These include, but are not limited to, margin compression risk, tighter credit conditions, a fade in post pandemic demand surge, etc.” Barclays analysts: “Equity risk premium (ERP) has been surprisingly low despite an increase in recession risk, sticky inflation, and the overhang of ‘known’ and ‘unknown’ tail risks amidst continued macro uncertainty. Even a modest re-pricing of ERP has the potential to dent equity returns meaningfully.” Wells Fargo analysts: “Market gains continue to be dominated by über-caps, masking the fact that 48% of S&P500 member stocks are down YTD. We remain near-term bearish as focus shifts from Q1 earnings to a macro fraught with economic and political risks.”

setting up alerts on all the key levels

By Orhan Coskun, Ece Toksabay and Ali Kucukgocmen ANKARA (Reuters) -Turkey headed for a runoff vote after President Tayyip Erdogan led over his opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Sunday's election but fell short of an outright majority to extend his 20-year rule of the NATO-member country. Neither Erdogan nor Kilicdaroglu cleared the 50% threshold needed to avoid a second round, to be held on May 28, in an election seen as a verdict on Erdogan's increasingly authoritarian path. The presidential vote will decide not only who leads Turkey but also whether it reverts to a more secular, democratic path, how it will handle its severe cost of living crisis, and manage key relations with Russia, the Middle East and the West. Kilicdaroglu, who said he would prevail in the runoff, urged his supporters to be patient and accused Erdogan's party of interfering with the counting and reporting of results. But Erdogan performed better than pre-election polls had predicted, and he appeared in a confident and combative mood as he addressed his supporters. "We are already ahead of our closest rival by 2.6 million votes. We expect this figure to increase with official results," Erdogan said. With almost 97% of ballot boxes counted, Erdogan led with 49.39% of votes and Kilicdaroglu had 44.92%, according to state-owned news agency Anadolu. Turkey's High Election Board gave Erdogan 49.49% with 91.93% of ballot boxes counted. Thousands of Erdogan voters converged on the party's headquarters in Ankara, blasting party songs from loudspeakers and waving flags. Some danced in the street. "We know it is not exactly a celebration yet but we hope we will soon celebrate his victory. Erdogan is the best leader we had for this country and we love him," said Yalcin Yildrim, 39, who owns a textile factory. ERDOGAN HAS EDGE The results reflected deep polarization in a country at a political crossroads. The vote was set to hand Erdogan's ruling alliance a majority in parliament, giving him a potential edge heading into the runoff. Opinion polls before the election had pointed to a very tight race but gave Kilicdaroglu, who heads a six-party alliance, a slight lead. Two polls on Friday showed him above the 50% threshold. The country of 85 million people - already struggling with soaring inflation - now faces two weeks of uncertainty that could rattle markets, with analysts expecting gyrations in the local currency and stock market. "The next two weeks will probably be the longest two weeks in Turkey's history and a lot will happen. I would expect a significant crash in the Istanbul stock exchange and lots of fluctuations in the currency," said Hakan Akbas, managing director of Strategic Advisory Services, a consultancy. "Erdogan will have an advantage in a second vote after his alliance did far better than the opposition's alliance," he added. A third nationalist presidential candidate, Sinan Ogan, stood at 5.3% of the vote. He could be a "kingmaker" in the runoff depending on which candidate he endorses, analysts said. The opposition said Erdogan's party was delaying full results from emerging by lodging objections, while authorities were publishing results in an order that artificially boosted Erdogan's tally. Kilicdaroglu, in an earlier appearance, said that Erdogan's party was "destroying the will of Turkey" by objecting to the counts of more than 1,000 ballot boxes. "You cannot prevent what will happen with objections. We will never let this become a fait accompli," he said. But the mood at the opposition party's headquarters, where Kilicdaroglu expected victory, was subdued as the votes were counted. His supporters waved flags of Turkey's founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and beat drums. KEY PUTIN ALLY The choice of Turkey's next president is one of the most consequential political decisions in the country's 100-year history and will reverberate well beyond Turkey's borders. A victory for Erdogan, one of President Vladimir Putin's most important allies, will likely cheer the Kremlin but unnerve the Biden administration, as well as many European and Middle Eastern leaders who had troubled relations with Erdogan. Turkey's longest-serving leader has turned the NATO member and Europe's second-largest country into a global player, modernised it through megaprojects such as new bridges and airports and built an arms industry sought by foreign states. But his volatile economic policy of low interest rates, which set off a spiralling cost of living crisis and inflation, left him prey to voters' anger. His government's slow response to a devastating earthquake in southeast Turkey that killed 50,000 people earlier this year added to voters' dismay. PARLIAMENTARY MAJORITY Kilicdaroglu has pledged to revive democracy after years of state repression, return to orthodox economic policies, empower institutions that lost autonomy under Erdogan and rebuild frail ties with the West. Thousands of political prisoners and activists could be released if the opposition prevails. Critics fear Erdogan will govern ever more autocratically if he wins another term. The 69-year-old president, a veteran of a dozen election victories, says he respects democracy. In the parliamentary vote, the People's Alliance of Erdogan's Islamist-rooted AKP, the nationalist MHP and others fared better than expected and were headed for a majority.

Moderation in everything is the key, everything can be taken to excess, trading included

Healthy diet is key to good health

**$BUD Brewing Trouble** Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD), the world's largest brewer, has seen better days. With a confluence of negative factors hitting the company, a compelling argument can be made for shorting its stock. This article will delve into the key reasons why going short on BUD could be a profitable trade. Mounting Debt and Financial Struggles Anheuser-Busch InBev's debt burden has reached alarming levels, primarily due to its aggressive acquisition strategy. The company's debt-to-equity ratio has soared, making it increasingly difficult for BUD to service its debt. This financial strain has left BUD with little room to maneuver and has raised concerns about its long-term sustainability. Falling Market Share and Increased Competition Anheuser-Busch InBev has been losing market share in key markets, particularly the United States, as craft breweries and smaller competitors continue to gain traction. Consumers are increasingly gravitating towards local, niche brands, leaving BUD's flagship products struggling to maintain their dominance. This shift in consumer preferences has had a significant impact on BUD's revenue and profitability. Regulatory Headwinds Governments worldwide are implementing stricter regulations on alcohol consumption, marketing, and sales, which could negatively impact BUD's bottom line. These regulations can lead to higher operating costs, limitations on marketing efforts, and even potential fines for non-compliance. As regulatory pressures mount, BUD's growth prospects may become increasingly constrained. Currency Fluctuations and Geopolitical Risks With a significant portion of its revenue generated from international markets, Anheuser-Busch InBev is exposed to currency fluctuations and geopolitical risks. Economic turmoil in emerging markets, currency devaluations, and escalating trade tensions can all have a detrimental impact on BUD's financial performance. ESG Concerns Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors have become increasingly important to investors, and BUD's track record is far from stellar. The company has faced criticism for its environmental practices, labor relations, and governance issues. As ESG-conscious investors continue to gain influence, BUD's stock could face downward pressure.

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(Reuters) - The Dow and S&P 500 indexes opened higher on Monday, with shares of PacWest leading a rally among regional banks ahead of a key inflation reading this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 40.77 points, or 0.12%, at the open to 33,715.15. The S&P 500 opened higher by 0.73 points, or 0.02%, at 4,136.98, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.73 points, or 0.03%, to 12,231.68 at the opening bell.

S&P 500, Dow open higher led by regional banks; key CPI data on tap

and finally crude oil $cl. 72.53 68.36 66.16. key support. and above 73.87, 75.83, 78.4-78.8, and key level to rotate to the up 80

$es futures key levels to hold 4154-4150, 4135,4120,4110. key levels to take out 4160,4180, 4200, 4210,4120,4135

not sure if anyone played $aapl. but 171 was the key long

that was the exit key if you were in hal

By Arathy Somasekhar and Andrew Hayley (Reuters) - Oil prices rose in Asian trade on Friday, but were poised for a third straight week of losses after markets witnessed dramatic drops on fears of a weakening U.S. economy and slowing Chinese demand. Brent crude rose 60 cents, or 0.8%, to $73.10 a barrel at 0545 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up 52 cents, or 0.8%, at $69.08 a barrel after four straight days of losses. For the week, Brent was set to close down 8.1%, while WTI was set to close 10.0% lower. "It has been a double whammy for oil prices," said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG in Singapore. "Renewed U.S. banking fallout (has prompted) fears of a wider contagion and amplifying recession talks, while a surprise contraction in China’s manufacturing activities pushed back against reopening optimism on oil demand outlook," he noted. Worries of a U.S. regional banking crisis persisted after PacWest Bancorp said it planned to explore strategic options. In China, factory activity unexpectedly contracted in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector. Service activity in China grew through April, though the rate of this expansion has slowed, data showed on Friday. However, expectations of potential supply cuts at the next OPEC+ meeting in June have provided some support to prices, said Kelvin Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA in Singapore. "Yesterday's steep intraday decline in WTI crude futures has managed to stall at a key major support of US$61.85... market participants seem to have implied that it's a potential 'floor' that OPEC+ has created", said Wong. Traders are focused on the release of U.S. employment data for April later in the day, hoping it could help gauge the health of the economy, as well as comments on monetary policy from St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari at the Economic Club of Minnesota. Investors now broadly expect the Fed to pause rate hikes at its June meeting, after the U.S. central bank dropped language that it "anticipates" further rate increases from its policy statement.

$BAC May12 27 P $WAL May05 20 P $KEY May 9 P $KEY May12 8.5 P $CVNA May 3.5 P $USB Jul 17.5 P $DB Jul 10 P $TJX Jan-25 70 P $OZK Dec 30 P

$BAC May12 27 P $WAL May05 20 P $KEY May 9 P $KEY May12 8.5 P $CVNA May 3.5 P $USB Jul 17.5 P $DB Jul 10 P $TJX Jan-25 70 P $OZK Dec 30 P

Investing.com -- The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected on Thursday, marking a slowdown from a recent string of more aggressive 50-point hikes. In a statement, the ECB's Governing Council warned that the outlook for inflation continues to be "too high for too long," adding that underlying price pressures remain uncertain. Policymakers also refrained from committing specifically to a further increase at the ECB's next meeting in June, saying only that any future rate movements will be based on the impact of upcoming economic and financial expectations for inflation. "The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction," the ECB said. The interest rate for the ECB's main refinancing operations will rise to 3.75%, while the deposit facility rate will climb to 3.25%, and the marginal lending facility rate will move up to 4.00%. The ECB also said it will continue to reduce its balance sheet by its current rate of €15 billion (€1 = $1.1023) per month until the end of June. Speaking to reporters, ECB president Christine Lagarde noted there was "almost unanimous" support for a smaller uptick in interest rates. She suggested as well that this may not be the final rise in its current policy tightening campaign. "It was sensible [...] to return to a more standard increment with the understanding that based on the information we have today we have more ground to cover and we are not pausing," Lagarde said. Leading up to the decision, inflation data out of the eurozone helped to somewhat bolster the case for a more dovish approach from the ECB, which has made curbing price growth a top priority. Core prices - a key gauge of inflation for the central bank which strips out volatile items like energy and food - inched lower in April to 5.6%. However, that reading remained well above the ECB's stated 2% medium-term target. At the same time, headline inflation also edged higher for the first time in six months to 7%. Elsewhere, the ECB's quarterly Bank Lending Survey showed that banks were making it more difficult for borrowers to get their hands on credit, even as demand for loans faltered. "The ECB has entered the final stage of its rate hike cycle," analysts at ING said in a note. "Although recent data has confirmed that underlying inflationary pressure is stickier than expected, weak credit growth and the latest results of the Bank Lending Survey have indicated that the rate hikes so far are leaving clear marks on the economy."

**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [May 04, 2023]: Crude Oil Rejection Day** MAY 04, 2023 — THURSDAY AM We are now post-FOMC with newly-minted FOMC key levels. The initial response has been lower for the ES, NQ, and YM, with big tests at mLO ahead. Failure at these levels could open up an expansion phase ahead from these narrow multi-week ranges. Crude Oil has developed a strong rejection at new lows for the year, which could lead to a bounce-back toward 76-77 above. Has Gold developed a strong rejection at last year's high?

https://cointelegraph.com/news/the-fed-has-little-ammo-left-as-30k-bitcoin-price-becomes-key-battle-line

this is key > @gman2 said: "have long way to go to bring down inflation" is not helping

**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [May 03, 2023]: Fed Day is Here** MAY 03, 2023 — WEDNESDAY AM MONTHLY OUTLOOK: Please join me for our PivotBoss Monthly Outlook for May 2023! We will cover all the major futures markets, and will also discuss trade opportunities for stocks, futures, and more! This is a FREE event that will begin at 4pm CT Wednesday, May 3. Please use the following Zoom link to join: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/86459726713 The ES, NQ, and YM are trading within narrow ranges ahead of the RTH open, with each trading around 30% of ADR ahead of this afternoon's FOMC Statement and Rate Decision. We'll get newly-minted FOMC key levels later today, and a likely increase of volatility over the next few weeks. Until then, look for range-bound action, as the market awaits the afternoon. Crude Oil has already pushed through the 70 level, and could target fresh lows ahead. Gold may ultimately squeeze to new highs behind potential weakness of the equity markets.

$PACW Sep 4 P $SOFI May 5 P $SOFI Jan 4 P $PSEC Nov 6 P $ALLY May12 24.5 P $KEY May 9 P $LC Jan 5 P $BABA Sep 75 P $ARCC May 17 P $WBD Oct 10 P $DB Jun 9 P $OZK Jun 30 P $KRE May 40 P $SYF Jun 26 P $HBAN Jun 9 P $DBX May 20 P $DAL Jun 27 P $DIS Jun 80 P $JPM Jun 100 P $WFC Jan 30 P $XLF Sep 30 P