$LOW

**Market Recap: Dollar slumped; Gold & Oil supported on rising Fed rate cut bets** US consumer confidence improved better than expected, but it follows big downward revisions to October. The consumer confidence rise joins a Michigan sentiment decline to a 6-month low. All the surveys face headwinds from elevated mortgage rates, tight credit conditions, and fears about developments in the Middle East. Fed’s Waller (the most hawkish Fed) & Goolsbee are “increasingly confident” that policy is well positioned to slow the economy and get inflation back to 2%. BUT Fed Governor Bowman reiterated she favors more rate hikes if the progress on inflation stalls. The RBNZ warned this morning that further policy tightening might be needed if price pressures did not ease. German import prices unexpectedly rose 0.3% m/m in October. However, annual import price inflation seems to have bottomed out in August and the trend of ever deeper deflation has been reversed now. https://analysis.hfeu.com/en-eu/750890/

Investing.com-- Gold prices rose in Asian trade on Wednesday, reaching a near seven-month high as a string of dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials ramped up bets on an early pivot by the central bank. A drop in the dollar- to near four-month lows, benefited the yellow metal, as did retreating U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year rate fell to a two-month low in Asian trade. Caution before a string of key economic readings this week- from the U.S. and China- also kept safe haven demand for gold upbeat, especially as a several weak readings from Japan and the euro zone fed concerns over a global economic slowdown. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,044.08 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in December rose 0.2% to $2,044.20 an ounce by 23:27 ET (04:37 GMT). Spot prices were now about $30 away from a record high touched earlier this year. Gold underpinned by Fed pivot bets, set for bumper November Fed officials said in separate overnight comments that the bank needed to be more cautious in keeping rates higher for longer, and that easing inflation may spur the bank into loosening policy earlier than expected. Fed Governor and noted hawk Christopher Waller said that high rates had quashed inflation sufficiently this year, and that a further decline in price pressures will likely see the bank begin cutting interest rates. His comments saw traders pricing in an at least 40% chance that the Fed will cut rates by as soon as March 2024, and that the central bank will keep rates on hold in December. Waller and other Fed officials have just this week to offer more cues on monetary policy, before the blackout period ahead of the Fed’s mid-December meeting. Chairman Jerome Powell is also set to speak later this week. The prospect of a shift in the Fed’s hawkish stance spurred strong gains in gold through November, with the yellow metal now set to add over 3% for the month. Any potential rate cuts by the Fed are likely to benefit gold markets, given that higher rates push up the opportunity cost of investing in the yellow metal. Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Markets called the trend a “perfect environment for gold” in an interview with Ausbiz. Copper upbeat as supply disruptions help ease China jitters Among industrial metals, copper prices were flat on Wednesday as supply disruptions in Peru and Panama helped ease uncertainty before key Chinese economic data this week. Copper futures expiring in March were flat at $3.8460 a pound after rallying 1.5% so far this week. Weakness in the dollar also aided copper prices. A copper mine operated by Canadian miner First Quantum (NASDAQ:QMCO) was ordered to shut down by the Panama government on the grounds that its contract was unconstitutional. This also coincided with a planned strike at MMG Ltd’s Las Bambas copper mine in Peru. The output disruptions pointed to tighter copper markets in the coming months- a trend that could support prices of the red metal. But markets remained largely on edge before key purchasing managers index data from China, which is expected to show a continued decline in manufacturing activity in the world’s largest copper importer.

By Brigid Riley TOKYO (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar ticked down to a three-month low against peer currencies on Tuesday after slipping overnight on weaker-than-expected new home sales data, while traders hunkered down on bets that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates in the first half of next year. U.S. new home sales fell 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units in October, data showed, below the 723,000 units expected by economists polled by Reuters and sending Treasury yields into a decline. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, was last at 103.16, hanging around its lowest since Aug. 31. The dollar was track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year. Market expectation that the Fed's rate increase cycle has finally come to an end has also put downward pressure on the greenback. U.S. rate futures showed about a 25% chance that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as March and increasing to nearly 45% by May, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "Slowing growth momentum, peak rates, rate cuts next year, and unwinding of long positioning: it's the dynamic feeding a weaker U.S. dollar and driving the entire currency complex," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. "Anything that brings that trend into question will change the outlook; however, the bar for that to happen is high," he added, saying the dollar likely has more room to fall. Traders are now eyeing U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - this week for more confirmation that inflation in the world's largest economy is slowing. PCE tops off a slew of other key economic events this week, including Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data and OPEC+ decision. After delaying its policy meeting to this Thursday, OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts, according to an OPEC+ source. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar briefly touched a near four-month high of $0.6632 against the greenback before easing to $0.6621. Data out Tuesday morning showed that domestic retail sales in October declined from the previous month. The kiwi also momentarily hit its highest since Aug. 10 at $0.6114 before sliding back down to $0.61015. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, where it is expected to keep interest rates steady at 5.50% for the fourth straight time. Elsewhere, the yen made up some ground on Tuesday in the wake of continued dollar weakening, with dollar/yen inching down around 0.3% to 148.21 yen per greenback. The Japanese currency may, however, be in for some turbulence depending on the outcome of this week's inflation data from the United States. "The risk for dollar bears is that U.S. PCE inflation does not come in as soft as hoped," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "That leaves (dollar/yen) vulnerable to a bounce this week."

Dollar slips to multi-month low as traders eye PCE data

By Stephen Culp NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks resumed their uphill climb led by interest rate sensitive megacaps on Wednesday, while crude prices slid as investors digested economic data and the postponement of the OPEC+ meeting that was to take place this Sunday. All three major U.S. stock indexes were green ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, with interest rate sensitive momentum stocks putting the tech-laden Nasdaq in the lead. After Tuesday's closing bell, chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported revenue well above Wall Street expectations after the market close, but shares were off due to the company's downbeat China sales outlook. A spate of economic data, including jobless claims, durable goods, and consumer sentiment, suggested that the economy is softening after about 20 months of policy tightening from the Federal Reserve, but remains resilient enough to potentially avoid recession. "People feel good going into the Thanksgiving holiday," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia. "Consumer sentiment was up quite a bit, there’s an indication that consumer spending remains fairly strong going into the holiday shopping season." Wall Street's rally was modest but broad-based, with energy stocks the clear outlier, tumbling in tandem with crude prices after the OPEC+ group of oil producing nations postponed their scheduled Sunday meeting, raising questions about crude production cuts. "The delay of the meeting indicates differences of opinion regarding production cuts going forward," Tuz added. "If everyone was on board there’d be no need to postpone the meeting." The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150.12 points, or 0.43%, to 35,238.41, the S&P 500 gained 20.47 points, or 0.45%, to 4,558.66 and the Nasdaq Composite added 83.79 points, or 0.59%, to 14,283.77. European stocks touched a two-month high, led by real estate shares, while a gauge of euro zone volatility dipped to its lowest level since July. The pan-European STOXX 600 index rose 0.36% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe gained 0.11%. Emerging market stocks lost 0.57%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed 0.53% lower, while Japan's Nikkei rose 0.29%. Benchmark Treasury yields wobbled after fairly strong jobless claims data unsettled a market that expects the Fed to begin cutting interest rates as early as June 2024. Benchmark 10-year notes last fell 4/32 in price to yield 4.4314%, from 4.418% late on Tuesday. The 30-year bond last rose 9/32 in price to yield 4.5633%, from 4.58% late on Tuesday. The greenback rebounded from a 2-1/2 month low after minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting suggested interest rates would remain restrictive for some time. The dollar index rose 0.56%, with the euro down 0.43% to $1.0862. The Japanese yen weakened 0.82% versus the greenback at 149.64 per dollar, while Sterling was last trading at $1.2456, down 0.65% on the day. U.S. crude fell 4.58% to $74.21 per barrel and Brent was last at $78.91, down 4.29% on the day. Gold prices dipped below the key $2,000 per ounce level as the dollar gained strength. Spot gold dropped 0.4% to $1,991.09 an ounce.

**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [November 22, 2023]: Crude Oil Bears Sell Rip** NOVEMBER 22, 2023 — WEDNESDAY AM HOLIDAY NOTE: US Markets are closed Thursday Nov 23, and close at 1pm CT on Friday Nov 24. This is the last pre-market video until Monday, Nov 27. Have a great Thanksgiving Holiday! The ES, NQ, and YM remain within narrow ranges at the top of the recent rally, and continue to show signs of strength. Look for sideways-to-up action over the next several days, as the markets look to reach the next highest resistance levels. Any pullbacks could offer buying opportunities ahead. Crude Oil is down big this morning, as another sell-the-rip opportunity occurred within the bearish PEMA trigger zone. Look for CL to continue to the previous quarter's low price of 69.69 over the next couple of weeks. Gold remains within the 1940 to 2020 range, and may reach the top soon.

Investing.com -- Oil prices retreated Tuesday, handing back some recent gains amid caution ahead of the weekend’s eagerly-awaited meeting of a group of top producers. By 09:45 ET (13.45 GMT), the U.S. crude futures traded 1% lower at $77.04 a barrel, while the Brent contract dropped 1% to $81.54 a barrel. The crude benchmarks gained around 2% on Monday, adding on to Friday’s 4% rise, after Reuters reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, a group known as OPEC+, is set to consider whether to make additional oil supply cuts to shore up prices when it meets on Nov. 26. OPEC+ meeting looms large Saudi Arabia, Russia and other members of OPEC+ have already pledged oil output cuts of about 5 million barrels per day, or about 5% of daily global demand, in a series of steps that started in late 2022. This figure includes a voluntary reduction by Saudi Arabia of one million barrels per day and a 300,000 barrels a day cut in Russian oil exports, both of which last until the end of 2023. “Growing expectations that we will see some action taken by OPEC+ at their upcoming meeting this weekend are providing support,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “Speculators will not want to go into this weekend with sizeable short positions. Given expectations, we will likely have to see at least Saudi Arabia rolling over their additional voluntary cut into 2024.” That said, even if OPEC+ extends the cuts into next year, the global oil market will still see a slight surplus of supply in 2024, said Toril Bosoni, the head of the International Energy Agency's oil markets and industry division earlier Tuesday. Fed minutes awaited, dollar battered by rate pause bets Weakness in the US Dollar Index -- which has dropped to a 2-½ month low – was also a major support point for oil and other commodities priced in the greenback. A drop in the dollar came as traders priced in bets that the Fed was done raising interest rates, and could potentially begin cutting rates by as soon as March 2024. The minutes of the Fed’s late-October meeting, which are due later on Tuesday, are expected to shed more light on this notion. U.S. inventories also due Despite the recent gains, oil has dropped about 16% since late September, posting four straight weeks of losses, on concerns of worsening demand, and as crude output in the U.S., the world's top producer, held at record highs. Data released last week showed a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. oil inventories, and the latest U.S. inventory reports are forecast to show crude and stockpiles rose again the following week. This week's first report from the American Petroleum Institute is due later Tuesday, followed by the official numbers from the Energy Information Administration, on Wednesday. (Ambar Warrick contributed to this item.)

By Rae Wee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar slid to a two-month low on Monday, extending a downtrend from last week as traders reaffirmed their belief that U.S. rates have peaked and turned their attention to when the Federal Reserve could begin cutting rates. The yuan struck three-month highs in both the onshore and offshore markets, propped up by China's central bank, which gave the Australian and New Zealand dollars a leg up, as the two are often used as liquid proxies for the yuan. The dollar index in Asia trade bottomed out at 103.53, its weakest level since Sept. 1, extending its nearly 2% decline from last week - the sharpest weekly fall since July. Against the weaker greenback, the euro hit its highest since August at $1.09365, while the yen firmed at a one-month high of 148.68 per dollar. Markets have priced out the risk of further rate increases from the Fed after a slew of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic indicators last week, particularly after an inflation reading that came in below estimates. Focus now turns to how soon the first rate cuts could come, with futures pricing in a 30% chance that the Fed could begin lowering rates as early as March, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "Market pricing for FOMC policy is likely to remain pretty steady, so the dollar should have very few catalysts to move it around this week," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) (CBA). "If we do see risk appetite improve again, then the dollar can definitely weaken further." Sterling edged 0.14% higher to $1.2480, flirting near a two-month peak, while the euro last bought $1.09185 ahead of flash PMI readings in the euro zone due this week. Also due this week are minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, which will offer some colour on policymakers' thinking as they held rates steady for a second time this month. "(The) FOMC minutes may be framed as a 'Fed pivot', thereby underscoring risk-on rallies favouring softer U.S. Treasury yields and U.S. dollar, alongside buying in risk assets," said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank. "The upshot is that the FOMC minutes may overstate incremental dovish shifts and likelihood of the Fed's intended pivot signals." The Japanese yen remained on the stronger side of 150 per dollar and was last 0.3% higher at 149.17. Elsewhere in Asia, the yuan leapt to a more than three-month high against the dollar in both the onshore and offshore markets, as the central bank guided the unit higher and exporters rushed to convert their dollar receipts into local currency. The onshore yuan rose 0.5% to an over three-month high of 7.1700 per dollar, while the offshore yuan similarly got a boost and jumped roughly 0.6% to an over three-month top of 7.1703 per dollar. The Aussie was last 0.5% higher at $0.6546, having struck a three-month high of $0.6563 earlier in the session, while the kiwi gained 0.54% to $0.6025. China on Monday left its benchmark lending rates unchanged at a monthly fixing, matching expectations, as a weaker yuan continued to limit further monetary easing and policymakers waited to see the effects of previous stimulus on credit demand. The yuan, which has fallen nearly 4% against the dollar this year in the onshore market, continues to be pressured by a faltering economic recovery in China and as investor sentiment remains fragile. "I think the theme of a soft Chinese economic recovery will persist for a while," said CBA's Kong. "Until we get a more meaningful recovery in the Chinese economy, I think that will be a headwind for the (yuan), Aussie and the kiwi in the near term."

Dollar beaten to over two-month low as Fed cut bets take charge

Saudi Arabia prepares to prolong Oil reductions into Spring, after price hits four-month low of $77 - FT. (financial juice)

**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [November 17, 2023]: Still Very Bullish** NOVEMBER 17, 2023 — FRIDAY AM The ES, NQ, and YM have developed narrow 3-day ranges ahead of next week's holiday-shortened week. We could see further sideways-to-up trading action, as volume and volatility decreases into next week. The bullish trends remain firmly intact, so bulls will be looking to defend into weakness for a shot at the next resistance levels above. Crude Oil is seeing a fade after trend day setup develop, but bears will look to defend into strength over the next few days for a shot at the previous quarter's low price at 69.69.

By Florence Tan SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices were little changed on Friday but on track for their fourth straight week of losses after tumbling about 5% to a four month-low on Thursday on worries over global demand. Brent futures edged up 4 cents, or 0.1%, to $77.46 a barrel at 0529 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was at $72.95, up 5 cents, or 0.1%. Both have lost around a sixth of their value over the last four weeks. "Oil prices are down slightly this year despite demand exceeding our optimistic expectations," Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. "Non-core OPEC supply has been much stronger than expected, partly offset by OPEC cuts." Prompt monthly spreads for both contracts have flipped to contango, a market trend where prompt prices are lower than those in future months indicating healthy supply. Oil's decline this week was mainly triggered by a steep rise in U.S. crude inventories and production sustaining at record levels, which analysts say triggered concerns of weak demand in the world's largest oil consumer amid high output. JPMorgan commodities research said on Friday its global oil demand tracker showed demand averaged 101.6 million barrels a day (bpd) in the first half of November, running 200,000 bpd lower than its projection for the month. Analysts said that the recent drop in prices is also likely to make Saudi Arabia extend its additional voluntary oil output cut of 1 million bpd into 2024. "It has become clearer that the oil balance for the remainder of this year is not as tight as initially expected," ING analysts said in a note. "As things stand, the market is still expected to return to surplus in 1Q24." A rollover of additional Saudi supply cuts into early 2024 should help erase the expected surplus and provide some support to the market, ING said.

ppi NUMBERS VERY LOW..INFLATION DEAD IN usa , SOON ALL THE SOFT LANDING TALK WILL STOP AS it becomes obvious landing is going to be hard as fck

By Brigid Riley TOKYO (Reuters) -The dollar sputtered at broadly lower levels on Wednesday after slumping overnight as a surprisingly softer U.S. inflation reading bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve has reached the end of its monetary tightening cycle. The offshore Chinese yuan, meanwhile, received some support after domestic industrial output and retail sales growth beat expectations. The activity data generally appeared to be "further evidence of very slow progress being made" in China's economy, said Rob Carnell, Asia-Pacific Head of Research and Chief Economist at ING. The offshore yuan briefly ticked up to a three-month high of $7.2385 against the dollar before easing back somewhat to $7.2477. At the same time, glum news continued to roll out of China's property sector, with sales falling at a faster pace in October and investment in real estate slumping, official data showed. With no end in sight for problems in the sector, that's likely to seep into other parts of the Chinese economy, "keeping them just a little bit mediocre," said Carnell. The New Zealand dollar, which can act as a proxy for China, ticked up to a one-month high of $0.6029 against the dollar. The sell-off in the dollar drove a rally for many of its peer currencies, with the euro sitting just below an over two-month high hit on Tuesday. The frenetic currency market activity was sparked by data showing U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in October, with the annual rise in underlying inflation the smallest in two years. In the 12 months through October, the CPI climbed 3.2% - below economists' estimates - after rising 3.7% in September. The data prompted market participants to all but eliminate the chance of another rate hike at the Fed's December monetary policy meeting, while bets of a rate cut in May next year increased to around 50%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Traders reacted quickly to the shift in market pricing by sending the dollar tumbling 1.5% overnight against major currencies. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields, which have helped to boost the greenback, tumbled. The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of peers, last stood at 104.14, not far from Tuesday's two-month low of 103.98. With the dollar on the back foot, the euro settled around $1.08725 after touching its highest since August the previous day. The pound was fetching $1.2489, around levels last seen in September. The greenback's overnight fall saw some relief for the languishing yen, which eased off Monday's fresh one-year low of 151.92. Dollar/yen crept up slightly to 150.68, as data revealed Japan's economy contracted in July-September, complicating the central bank's efforts to gradually exit from its ultra-easy monetary policy. Still, Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore, sees softer U.S. yields and the risk of intervention by the Japanese government limiting the likelihood of the yen weakening much further than it already has. Between those factors and a Fed which is likely to retain a somewhat hawkish tone, dollar/yen is a "range-bound story for the time being," he said.

By Sruthi Shankar and Amruta Khandekar (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes slipped on Monday as investors awaited a crucial inflation reading and other economic data this week that could shape expectations around how long the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated. Megacap growth stocks were a big drag, as the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose. Shares of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) fell between 0.5% and 1.5% in early trade. Eight of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors were in the red, with rate-sensitive real estate stocks down 1.2% and leading declines. This week's economic data as well as speeches from Fed officials will provide clues on the trajectory of interest rates amid growing expectations that the Fed is done hiking borrowing costs. A report on Tuesday is expected to show headline consumer prices eased to 3.3% in October from 3.7% in September. However, core prices are seen unchanged from the previous month. "If the year-over-year (number) continues to show a decline, then that seals the fact that the Fed is not going to raise in December and most likely they're done with the hiking campaign," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. The major U.S. stock indexes have rebounded strongly this month, fueled by a stronger-than-expected earnings season and on hopes that U.S. interest rates are near their peak. The benchmark S&P 500 closed at near eight-week highs on Friday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq hit a two-month peak. Traders have priced in a nearly 86% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates in December, but have pushed back bets of rate cuts to June from May, according to the CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) FedWatch tool. Adding to the cautious mood, Moody's (NYSE:MCO) lowered its outlook on the U.S. credit rating to "negative" from "stable", citing large fiscal deficits and a decline in debt affordability. "With the absence of macro news and the strong rally that we had on Friday, the downgrade and the anticipation of the inflation data is inducing some selling this morning," Cardillo said. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson unveiled a Republican stopgap spending measure on Saturday aimed at averting a government shutdown on Friday, but the measure quickly ran into opposition from lawmakers from both parties in Congress. At 9:41 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 20.28 points, or 0.06%, at 34,262.82, the S&P 500 was down 19.10 points, or 0.43%, at 4,396.14, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 96.40 points, or 0.70%, at 13,701.71.Medtech companies such as Dexcom (NASDAQ:DXCM), Abbott and Insulet (NASDAQ:PODD) rose between 2% and 5% as analysts said data for cardiovascular benefits for Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO)'s weight-loss drug Wegovy is better than feared for the companies. Cushioning the Dow, Boeing (NYSE:BA) climbed 5.1% after Bloomberg News reported that China is considering resuming purchases of 737 Max aircraft. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.49-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 2.18-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 11 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 19 new highs and 82 new lows.

wie mein meister es macht Sell High Buy Low

Sell High, Buy Low

Refiles to add 'FOREX' tag no changes to text) By Tom Westbrook and Alun John SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) -The dollar rose against most peers on Thursday, as markets braced for remarks from Fed chair Jerome Powell, waiting to see whether he would push back against the rally in U.S. Treasuries that has sent yields down and supported the euro and pound. The euro was last 0.2% lower at $1.0688, but not far from Monday's near two-month peak of $1.0765, and sterling was down a similar amount at $1.2259,. The dollar index was up 0.16% at 105.67. The day's main event is still to come, however, with Powell due to speak at 1900 GMT. "The topic of the day is Powell, Powell, Powell. We've got two-year yields below 5%, we've got the 10 year around 4.5% what's the response?" said Simon Harvey head of FX analysis at Monex Europe. "Is this the bottom of the range for the U.S. Treasury curve or have we got further to go? The nature of markets is they will keep testing this until we do get some resolute pushback," he added. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was last 4.5294%, having dropped from a mid-October peak above 5%, with bonds supported by a combination of factors last week. Those included the U.S. Treasury's lower than expected borrowing forecast for the fourth quarter and weaker-than expected U.S. jobs data reinforcing expectations the Fed is done with rate hikes. "This is going to play out in currencies where you've seen a lot of pressure from yields - euro/dollar specifically - as the fundamentals of the European economy don't warrant euro/dollar trading at current levels, so if we do get push back from Powell tonight that's where there will be the most pain," said Harvey. The yen was also under pressure again on Thursday, with the dollar up 0.1% to 151.12, heading back towards the 151.73 it reached last week after the Bank of Japan tweaked its ultra-loose monetary policy less than traders had expected. That further increased fears Japanese authorities would intervene to support the currency, and as a result investors see selling yen against the euro as safer than risking intervention in dollar/yen. The euro reached a 15-year top of 161.72 yen early on Thursday. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Thursday the BOJ would keep its policy of yield curve control and negative rates "until necessary to hit 2% inflation in a sustained manner". Elsewhere, falling oil prices offered welcome relief for the euro and pound, but held back commodity-linked currencies. The Australian dollar was at a one-week low of $0.6396, and the Canadian dollar was also under pressure at C$1.3787 per dollar, while Norway's crown briefly weakened past 12 per euro overnight, its softest since May. "Both (the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian crown) have been undermined in part by the sharp adjustment lower for the price of oil," said MUFG analysts in a note. China's yuan slipped in anticipation of further rate cuts after data showed Chinese consumer prices fell in October. [CNY/] "There are some growing market expectations for further rate cuts by the Chinese central bank given soft inflation prints and still narrow economic recovery," said Michael Wan, currency analyst at MUFG in Singapore.

**US Dollar Weakens Against Euro Amid Fed Speculations** On Friday, the US Dollar hit an almost two-month low against the Euro. This was largely due to growing expectations that the Federal Reserve might be putting the brakes on interest rate hikes, due to a weak employment report. All eyes are now on US central bank officials, as traders look for hints about future interest rate policies. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak on Wednesday and Thursday. Powell’s words could have a significant impact on the markets and shape future developments. These speeches are closely watched by traders as they often contain crucial hints for currency markets. https://analysis.hfeu.com/en-eu/745202/

By Shadia Nasralla LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices hit fresh 2-1/2-month lows on Tuesday as mixed economic data from China offset the impact of Saudi Arabia and Russia extending output cuts. Brent crude futures were down $1.45, or 1.7%, to $83.73 a barrel as of 1242 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $79.58 a barrel, down $1.24, or 1.53%. Both hit their lowest levels since late August. The premium on front-month loading Brent contracts over ones loading in six months' time was also at a 2-1/2-month low, indicating market participants are less concerned with current supply deficits. While China's crude oil imports in October showed robust growth both year on year and month on month, its total exports contracted at a quicker pace than expected. Expectations of crude run reductions by China-based refiners between November and December could also limit oil demand and exacerbate price declines. World shares, which often trade in tandem with oil, lost steam on Tuesday as investor enthusiasm about a peak in global interest rates faded. In addition, the U.S. dollar has ticked up from recent lows, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. [MKTS/GLOB] On the supply side, markets are waiting to see if Saudi Arabia and Russia are ready to rein in production voluntarily beyond the end of the year in addition to a broader deal among the OPEC+ producer group. "Looking ahead to 2024, Saudi Arabia will probably find it difficult to withdraw its production cuts at the end of this year – after all, any expansion of Saudi Arabian oil production would risk generating an oversupply in the first half of next year," Commerzbank (ETR:CBKG) said in a note. API industry data on U.S. crude stockpiles is expected after 2000 GMT on Tuesday. [API/S]

By Vidya Ranganathan and Rae Wee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Major global currencies were steady on Monday with investors preparing for the U.S. dollar to extend declines from late last week after the Federal Reserve dialled down its hawkish rhetoric. The dollar index slipped 0.08% to 104.99, with the euro gaining 0.08% to $1.0738. The dollar index declined more than 1% last week, its heaviest fall since mid-July and hit a six-week low. World stocks too had their strongest week in a year as expectations the Fed was done raising rates gathered steam. Other indicators such as weakness in U.S. jobs data, softer manufacturing numbers from around the world and a decline in longer dated Treasury yields also hurt the dollar, while stoking rallies in sterling, the Aussie dollar and causing the yen to bounce from the weaker side of 150-per-dollar. "We always say bad news is good news," said Tina Teng, a market analyst at CMC Markets (LON:CMCX) in Auckland. "So it's good then there is expectation for the Fed and other central banks to end the rate hike cycle sooner." She expected the dollar to remain on weaker trend through November. However, analysts at J.P.Morgan Securities sounded cautious. "Dollar bears would be well served to temper their enthusiasm," they wrote. "This is because, the pillars of USD strength have diluted, but not completely faded and are likely to eventually re-emerge over the medium-term as USD-supportive factors." Moreover, besides more evidence of a slowing U.S. economy, J.P.Morgan analysts say a sustained dollar selloff needs signs of improvement in the euro zone, China and other regions which it says are "still tenuous". Latest manufacturing surveys from China and Europe's GDP and inflation data bear that out. Treasury yields slumped last week after softness in U.S. jobs and manufacturing data and after Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke of 'balanced' risks. Also, the U.S. government cut its refinancing estimate for this quarter, and announced lower increases in long-dated debt auctions than expected. Yields on 2-year notes have dropped 25 basis points in roughly two weeks, while 10-year yields languished near a five-week low and last stood at 4.5891%. The front end of the curve remains deeply inverted. Futures markets swung to imply a 90% chance the Fed was done hiking, and an 86% chance the first policy easing would come as soon as June. Markets also imply around an 80% probability the European Central Bank will be cutting rates by April, while the Bank of England is seen easing in August. The Japanese yen weakened 0.1% to trade at 149.48 per dollar. CMC Markets' Teng said the turnaround in the dollar's direction and the yen's recovery from lows last week suggested Japanese authorities probably need not intervene in the currency. The yen hit 151.74 per dollar last week, edging close to last October's lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention by the Bank of Japan. Sterling was last trading steady at $1.2373. Britain's GDP data for the fourth quarter is due this week and, while sterling rallied strongly last week in a market that is heavily short the currency, it is still down about 6% in four months. The drop in the dollar and yields helped underpin gold at $1,984, within striking distance of the recent five-month peak of $2,009. [GOL/] In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin (BTC=BTSP) was steady at $34,847. The risky asset has been buoyed by the expected end of central bank policy tightening cycles. The crypto industry has also become focused on the prospect of new spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which would throw open the market to more investors. Though none have been approved, several firms have filed for such a product.

I was wondering that $23 was low lol. A burger at McDs is probably $7-$8 alone

By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar eased on Friday and was on course for a weekly decline against a basket of currencies as traders wagered that the U.S. Federal Reserve was most likely done with rate increases, lifting risk sentiment. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was down 0.122% at 106.07, not far from the one-week low of 105.80 it hit on Thursday. The index is on course to drop 0.4% for the week, just its third week of losses in the last 16 weeks. Markets are now pricing in less than a 20% chance of a rate increase in December compared with 39% earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed, in the wake of the U.S. central bank's holding interest rates steady on Wednesday. The Fed, however, left the door open to a further increase in borrowing costs in a nod to the economy's resilience. "Fed is now walking a tightrope between financial conditions and rate hikes," said Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at Bank of Singapore, noting that the Fed said rising bond yields are doing some work for it and it can afford to wait and see. But since the Fed's policy decision, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds have dropped over 20 basis points. A holiday In Japan meant cash Treasuries were untraded in Asia on Friday. "There's still this underlying tension here that could be a worry but for now market has become more relaxed," said Sim. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits increased moderately last week as the labour market continued to show few signs of a significant slowdown. Investor focus will switch to October non-farm payrolls data later in the day, with the U.S. expected to have added 180,000 jobs in October, according to a Reuters poll of economists. A weaker result will likely put further pressure on the dollar. "Even if October nonfarm payrolls were to come ahead of expectations, this wouldn’t necessary support calls for the Fed to hike in December," said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank. "Indeed, the central bank appears to be more focused on inflation rather than jobs and economic growth." Analysts said upcoming economic data will likely determine whether the weakness in dollar will be sustained. Christopher Wong, currency strategist at OCBC, said a more entrenched disinflationary trend, and a material easing of U.S. labour market tightness and activity data are needed for the dollar to trade softer. But for now, Wong said, the dollar still retains a "significant yield advantage and is a safe haven proxy to some extent." In other currencies, sterling was at $1.2198, down 0.02% on the day, having risen 0.4% on Thursday, and was on course for a 0.5% weekly gain. The euro was up 0.05% at $1.0625, also set to clock a weekly gain of 0.5%. The Bank of England joined other major central banks in holding rates steady on Thursday and stressed that it did not expect to start cutting them any time soon. The European Central Bank last week snapped a streak of 10 straight rate increases, with the discussion shifting to how long rates would stay high. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel said on Thursday the "last mile" of disinflation may be the toughest, and the central bank cannot yet close the door on further rate rises. The yen strengthened 0.11% to 150.28 per dollar, keeping traders nervous and looking for signs of intervention from Japanese authorities. The yen has had a whirlwind week, touching a one-year low against the dollar and 15-year low against the euro on Tuesday after the Bank of Japan tweaked its yield curve control policy. Kazuo Ueda, the central bank's governor, will continue to dismantle its ultra-loose monetary policy and look to exit the decade-long accommodative regime next year, Reuters reported on Thursday, six sources familiar with the central bank's thinking. The Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6434, just shy of the over one-month high of $0.6456 it touched on Thursday. The New Zealand dollar was 0.12% higher at $0.5901. Both the Aussie and the kiwi are up 1.6% for the week, their best weekly performance since mid-July.