$LOW

Weekly XAU move from 1700's indicates pretty low volume rally. Maybe not trustworthy....

By Florence Tan and Emily Chow SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Monday, giving up earlier gains, as global producers will likely keep output unchanged during a meeting this week and investors are cautious ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting that may spur market volatility. Brent crude futures fell 74 cents, or 0.8%, to $85.92 a barrel by 0710 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $79.07 a barrel, down 61 cents, or 0.8%. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting scheduled on Jan. 31-Feb. 1, the market broadly expects the U.S. central bank to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points, increasing concerns that the Fed's extended increases in borrowing costs will choke fuel demand growth in the world's biggest oil consumer. Oil prices "are likely being weighed down by potential interest rate hikes in the upcoming Fed meeting," said Serena Huang, head of APAC analysis at Vortexa, in an email. Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, are unlikely to tweak their current oil output policy when they meet virtually on Feb. 1. Still, an indication of a rise in crude exports from Russia's Baltic ports in early February caused Brent and WTI to post their first weekly loss in three last week. "No change to the OPEC+ output is expected to be announced at this week's meeting and we expect outlook commentary from the U.S. Fed to be the key driver of the outlook in the near term," said National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) analysts in a research note. Oil prices rose earlier on Monday amid tensions in the Middle East following a drone attack in oil producer Iran. While it is not clear yet what's happening in Iran, any escalation there has the potential to disrupt crude flow, said Stefano Grasso, a senior portfolio manager at 8VantEdge in Singapore. China, the world's biggest crude importer, pledged over the weekend to promote a consumption recovery which would support fuel demand after it ended strict COVID-19 curbs in December. The country resumes business this week after its Lunar New Year holidays. The number of passengers travelling prior to the holidays rose above levels in the past two years but is still below 2019, Citi analysts said in a note, citing data from the Ministry of Transport. "Overall international traffic recovery remains gradual, with high-single to low-teens digits to 2019 level, and we expect further recovery when outbound tour group travel resumes on Feb. 6," the Citi note said.

Visto che sono alla ricerca di un indicatore per le strutture hing e low, ho ripreso in mano un vecchio chiusure giornaliere per con un colpo d'occhio si vedono i sbilanciamenti che ha fatto #SP500 da iniziò settimana per pendere liquidità e fuggire come un falco o visto che si parla di #USA un aquila in picchiata o in decollo. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 In più da notare l'ultimo minimo va prendere ultimi livelli liquidi per fare pulizia di ordini. Sicuramente li le macchinate dei BIG a paletta su una bella cifra #Algoritmica 3950$ per la precisane "3947.9$". Vediamo se anche domani prova a sbilanciare sulla liquidità. 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian equities rose to a fresh seven-month high on Thursday, with Hong Kong shares playing catch-up to other markets' gains as trade resumed after its three-day Lunar New Holiday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.9% to 557.65 and was set for its fifth straight day of gains. The index has gained 10% so far in January, buoyed by expectations of a strong economic rebound in China and by hopes that most major central banks are nearing an end to hefty rate rises. Trading was thin on Thursday with Australia closed for a holiday and certain parts of Asia, including China, still away for the Lunar New Year. The buoyant mood looked set to continue in Europe, with the Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.58%, German DAX futures 0.58% higher and FTSE futures up 0.30%. Traders betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon tone down its aggressive rate hike policy got a lift after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised rates but became the first major central bank to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now. After a series of super-sized rate hikes last year, the U.S. central bank is now largely expected to raise rates by a smaller 25 basis points next week on signs that inflation is cooling. While analysts expect the Fed to eventually pause its interest rate hikes this year, for some the meeting in February is a bit too early for that. "We believe the Fed will make a special effort to avoid suggesting that the end of the tightening process is in sight," said Kevin Cummins (NYSE:CMI), chief economist at NatWest Markets. Cummins said it was likely that the committee would go out of its way to keep the official policy statement free of anything that could be construed as a suggestion that a pause might be under consideration just yet. The spotlight will be on the U.S. GDP data due later on Thursday. The report could mark the last quarter of solid growth before the lagged effects of the Fed's jumbo rate hikes kick in. "The U.S. GDP release today will be of key interest to gauge whether the market expectations shifting in favour of a soft landing rather than a recession can continue to hold," Saxo strategists said in a note to clients. The prospect of a less aggressive pace in monetary tightening has stoked expectations of a so-called soft landing - a scenario in which inflation eases against a backdrop of weakening but still resilient economic growth. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index surged 1.7% in its first day of trade in the Year of the Rabbit, while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.25%. Investor attention will also be on the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings due next week, with traders looking for clues as to when the central banks are likely to turn dovish. In the currency market, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was at 101.64, not far off the eight-month low of 101.51 it touched last week. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.22% to 129.32 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2394, down 0.05% on the day. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 2.1 bps to 3.441%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 3 bps to 3.595%. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at -68.7 bps. The inversion of this curve has predicted eight of the last nine recessions, analysts have said. Oil prices were steady after U.S. crude stocks rose less than expected. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.09% to $80.22 per barrel, while Brent was at $86.05, down 0.08% on the day. [O/R] Gold prices touched a nine-month high, with spot gold at $1,945.55 per ounce, after hitting $1,949.09 earlier in the day.

Wild chart, at trend level low and past breakout high

**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [January 25, 2023]: Early Selling Pressure** JANUARY 25, 2023 — WEDNESDAY AM The ES and NQ have broken through yLO and are currently seeing quite a bit of selling pressure, with more downside likely ahead. Short of a strong low and a recovery of yLO, these markets appear poised for more weakness toward wMID below. Crude Oil has developed a narrow 7-day range around the previous year's close price. An 8-point breakout move could be ahead. Gold remains bullish, and pullbacks remain buying opportunities.

low volumes

Thtas the problem when you have 400 million guns laying around, statiscally low probability events will happen.... next we going to here about tortoise shooting a man or some such

By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) - Crude oil prices were steady on Tuesday as concerns about a global economic slowdown and expected build in U.S. oil inventories were offset by hopes of a fuel demand recovery from top importer China. Brent crude was up 12 cents, or 0.1%, at $88.31 a barrel by 1450 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $81.70. "The (United States) economy still could roll over and some energy traders are still sceptical on how quickly China's crude demand will bounce back this quarter," OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note. This week traders are watching for more business data as corporate earnings season gathers momentum, offering clues to the health of economies around the globe. On the inventory side, U.S. stocks of crude oil and gasoline were expected to have risen last week while distillate stocks were forecast to fall, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Reports are due from the American Petroleum Institute, at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) on Tuesday, and from the Energy Information Administration, at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT) on Wednesday. Bank JP Morgan raised its forecast for Chinese crude demand but maintained its projection for a 2023 price average of $90 a barrel for Brent crude. "Absent any major geopolitical events, it would be difficult for oil prices to breach $100 in 2023 as there should be more supply than demand this year," it said in an analyst note. Crude oil prices in physical markets have started the year with a rally on increased buying from China after the relaxation of pandemic controls and on trader concern that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply. The dollar, meanwhile, hovered near a nine-month low against the euro and gave back recent gains against the yen as traders continued to gauge the risks of U.S. recession and the path for Federal Reserve policy. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated commodities such as oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Investors have piled back into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate for more than two years as concerns over a global business cycle downturn have eased. Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI)'s flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed on Tuesday, but British private sector economic activity fell at its fastest rate in two years.

By Kevin Buckland TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar hovered near a nine-month low to the euro and gave back recent gains against the yen on Tuesday, as traders weighed the risks of a U.S. recession and the path for Federal Reserve policy. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, including the euro and yen - slipped 0.12% to 101.89, heading back towards the 7-1/2-month low of 101.51 reached last week. The euro added 0.08% to $1.0880, taking it closer to Monday's peak of $1.0927, the strongest since April. "The U.S. is no longer the cleanest shirt in the global economic laundry," said Ray Attrill, head of foreign-exchange strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY), who expects the dollar index to fall to 100 by end-March and the euro to rise to $1.10. "That's integral to our bearish U.S. dollar view, that the U.S. is not going to be the global growth leader." Money market traders see only two more quarter point rate hikes by the Fed to a peak of around 5% by June, with two quarter point cuts following before year-end. The Fed itself has insisted 75 basis points of more tightening is likely on the way. By contrast, Europe's single currency has been buoyed by comments from European Central Bank officials pointing to further aggressive policy tightening. The latest was ECB President Christine Lagarde, who on Monday reiterated that the central bank will keep raising interest rates quickly to slow inflation, which remains far too high. "President Lagarde has been among the hawks, and so we are comfortable with our call for 50bp increases at the next two meetings," Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) strategist Joseph Capurso wrote in a client note, pointing to the potential for a test of $1.1033 for the euro this week. Elsewhere, the dollar sank 0.41% to 130.11 yen, retreating after two sessions of strong gains. Last week, the dollar fell as low as 127.215 yen, its weakest since May, before a Bank of Japan policy review as investors bet the BOJ would begin to end its stimulus programme. The BOJ, however, left policy unchanged, giving the dollar some respite. Many, though, continue to expect a hawkish shift by the BOJ this year, as policymakers continue to tweak policy in order to extend the life of the yield curve control (YCC) mechanism, which pins short-term rates at -0.1% and keeps 10-year yields in a band around zero. "Clearly, the market regards the YCC policy as well past its use-by date, and it's only a matter of time - and probably months rather than quarters - until the BOJ sounds the death knell on it," said NAB's Attrill, who predicts dollar-yen will decline to 125 by end-March. "The era of yen weakness is rapidly falling behind us." Meanwhile, sterling was last trading at $1.2391, up 0.12% on the day. The Australian dollar rose 0.18% to $0.7041 and the New Zealand dollar advanced 0.27% to $0.6508.

**Market Update – January 23: Same story new week!** Chinese New Year celebrations – many centres are closed in Asia. Treasuries sagged to end on a bearish week. USDIndex at 101.30 low as the market continued to price out a 25 bp rate hike on February 1 & BoJ’s latest attempt to keep a lid on yields, along with some profit taking. Wall Street (US100 +2.66%), 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.48%. Options expirations likely helped support the advance. A report of big layoffs at Alphabet added to recession fears and weighed initially, but signs of cost cutting enticed dip buying. Goldman Sachs slipped on reports of a DoJ probe into its consumer unit. __Read More:__ https://analysis.hfeu.com/en-eu/654369/

By Tetsushi Kajimoto TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's finances are becoming increasingly precarious, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned on Monday, just as markets test whether the central bank can keep interest rates ultra-low, allowing the government to service its debt. The government has been helped by near-zero bond yields, but bond investors have recently sought to break the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) 0.5% cap on the 10-year bond yield, as inflation runs at 41-year highs, double the central bank's 2% target. "Japan's public finances have increased in severity to an unprecedented degree as we have compiled supplementary budgets to respond to the coronavirus and similar issues," Suzuki said in a policy speech starting a session of parliament. It is not unusual for the finance minister to refer to Japan's strained finances. Despite the country's growing debt pile, the government remains under pressure to keep the fiscal spigot wide open. Japan must balance regional security concerns over China, Russia and North Korea, and manage a debt burden more than twice the size of its $5 trillion economy - by far the heaviest burden in the industrialised world. Market showed little reaction to Suzuki's speech, in which he explained the details of the coming fiscal year's state budget worth a record 114.4 trillion yen ($878.9 billion). Suzuki reiterated the government's aim to achieve an annual budget surplus - excluding new bond sales and debt-servicing costs - in the fiscal year to March 2026. The government, however, has missed budget-balancing targets for a decade. The Ministry of Finance estimates that every 1-percentage-point rise in interest rates would boost debt service by 3.7 trillion yen to 32.5 trillion yen for the 2025/2026 fiscal year. "The government will strive to stably manage Japanese government bond (JGBs) issuance through close communication with the market," he said. "Overall JGB issuance, including rolling over bonds, remain at an extremely high level worth about 206 trillion yen. "We will step up efforts to keep JGB issuance stable." "Public finance is the cornerstone of a country's trust. We must secure fiscal space under normal circumstances to safeguard trust in Japan and people's livelihood at a time of emergency." LABOUR REFORM Prime Minister Fumio Kishida echoed Suzuki's resolve to revive the economy and tackle fiscal reform. He stressed the need for a positive cycle of growth led by corporate profits and private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy. "Wage hikes hold the key to this virtuous cycle," Kishida said in his policy speech. He vowed to push labour reform to create a structure that allows sustainable wage growth and overcome the pain of rising living costs. "First of all, we need to realise wage growth that exceeds price increases," Kishida added, pledging to also boost childcare support, and push investment and reform in areas such as green and digital transformation. ($1 = 129.5700 yen)

sold some dia, low and Isrg call spreads

By Emily Chow KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) -Oil futures fell by nearly $1 on Thursday, extending losses from the previous day, as a surprise jump in U.S. crude stocks weighed on the market along with fears of a recession that were heightened by disappointing U.S. retail sales and output data. Brent crude futures were last down 84 cents, or 1%, to $84.14 a barrel at 0710 GMT, after earlier easing to $83.76. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also declined 91 cents, or 1.1%, to $78.57 a barrel. It earlier fell to a low of $78.13. "The deterioration in U.S. economic data darkened the (oil) demand outlook as recession fears mount again. Risk-off sentiment has sent growth-sensitive commodities down," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets, adding that profit-taking could have played a part also. U.S. December retail sales fell by the most in a year, while manufacturing output recorded its biggest drop in nearly two years, as higher borrowing costs hurt demand for goods. Still, Federal Reserve officials said interest rates needed to rise beyond 5% even as inflation shows signs of having peaked and economic activity is slowing. "This raised the spectre of a recession, with risk appetite suffering as a consequence," ANZ Research analysts said in a client note. Adding to the pall, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude oil inventories rose by about 7.6 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 13, according to market sources. The mean average forecast from a Reuters' poll of nine analysts had been for a fall of about 600,000 barrels. The big build marked the second consecutive week of large inventory increases. However, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by about 1.8 million barrels against analysts' expectations for a 120,000-barrel increase. The API report was delayed by a day due to Monday's Martin Luther King Day public holiday in the United States. The government's Energy Information Administration will release its weekly inventory report on Thursday. With aggressive rate hikes still on the cards, the U.S. dollar climbed, weighing on oil demand as a stronger greenback makes the commodity more expensive for those holding other currencies.

By Shreyashi Sanyal and Amruta Khandekar (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes rose on Wednesday after weak retail sales and further evidence of slowing inflation supported hopes of smaller rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, while Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares gained for the second straight day. A reading from the Commerce Department showed retail sales fell 1.1% in December against expectations of a 0.8% drop, while a separate report showed producer prices declined more than expected in December. "The market is getting what it wants, which is the slowing in inflation, which means that the Fed can (hike) at a slower rate and maybe have a lower endpoint," said Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT in Atlanta. Traders' bets of a 25-basis point rate hike rose after the data, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to a four-month low. [US/] Focus also remains on the earnings season as it gathers pace to gauge the strength of corporate America against the backdrop of higher interest rates. Analysts now expect year-over-year earnings from S&P 500 companies to decline 2.6% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv data, compared with a 1.6% decline in the beginning of 2023. Tesla Inc rose 1.5% for the second straight session as analysts noted the electric-vehicle maker's recent price cuts to top models gave it a competitive edge. Also boosting the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) rose 0.2% after the company said it would cut 10,000 jobs by the end of the third quarter of fiscal 2023. Among major S&P 500 sectors, consumer discretionary stocks were up 1%, leading gains. U.S. stock markets have started 2023 on a strong footing on hopes that a moderation in inflationary pressures could give the Fed cover to dial down the size of its interest rate hikes. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Wednesday interest rates need to go over 5% at least, echoing views by several other policymakers in recent weeks. At 9:49 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 63.78 points, or 0.19%, at 33,974.63, the S&P 500 was up 14.36 points, or 0.36%, at 4,005.33, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 73.86 points, or 0.67%, at 11,168.98. Among other stocks, United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL) Inc rose nearly 1% as it forecast at least a four-fold jump in full-year profit, lifting the S&P 1500 airlines index. Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) Inc rose 7.8% after reporting data which demonstrated the effectiveness of its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine. IBM (NYSE:IBM) Corp was a drag on the Dow, falling 1.3% after Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) downgraded the company's shares to "equal weight" from "overweight", citing slowing revenue growth. PNC Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:PNC) fell 5.5% after the company missed estimates for fourth-quarter profit. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners for a 3.96-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.60-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded eight new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 47 new highs and four new lows.

By Stella Qiu SYDNEY (Reuters) - The Japanese yen tumbled and bonds notched their biggest rally in two decades on Wednesday after the country's central bank stuck to its ultra-easy monetary policy, defying expectations that it would start phasing out its massive stimulus programme. Speculation in the bond market that the BOJ would tweak its yield curve control (YCC) settings at the meeting that concluded on Wednesday had pushed 10-year government bond yields above the policy cap of 0.5% for a fourth straight session. The bank, however, maintained ultra-low interest rates, including its 0.5% cap for the 10-year bond yield. The 10-year yield fell as much as 15 basis points - the biggest drop since November 2023 - to a low of 0.36%, after hitting an intraday high of 0.51% before the BOJ announcement came through. It last traded at 0.395%. Japan's Nikkei share index meanwhile surged 2.5%, the biggest gain since mid-November, bucking the downtrend seen elsewhere. The dollar also gained 2.5% against the Japanese yen to 131.4 yen, in its biggest percentage daily rise since March 2020. Elsewhere, stocks dipped, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan easing 0.2%, after weak earnings from Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) overnight dragged the Dow Jones index 1% lower. The investment bank reported a bigger-than-expected 69% drop in fourth-quarter profit. European markets are set to open slightly higher, with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures rising 0.3%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both up 0.1%. In a Reuters poll, 97% of economists expected the BOJ to maintain its ultra-easy policy at the meeting. "It was a tough day for the bond vigilantes who were positioned to bully the BOJ into a policy change not justified by their economic forecasts," said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac. "For sure, the BoJ will have its hands full in the JGB market in coming weeks, but with no new forecasts at the March meeting, speculators in both JGBs and JPY should cool their heels a little and adjust their expectations." Mahjabeen Zaman, head of FX Research at ANZ, now expects any further rises in the Japanese yen might have to be delayed until April when a new BOJ governor is expected to be in place. "I guess Kuroda has sort of done the groundwork with widening the band in December, He's done the groundwork for the new governor to get on board and take it from there." Zaman expects the yen to appreciate to 124 per dollar by end 2023 and 116 per dollar by end 2024. Just a month ago the BOJ shocked markets by doubling the allowable band for the 10-year JGB yield to 50 basis points either side of 0%. The change emboldened speculators to test the BOJ's resolve Mizuho Bank analysts said in a note that the BOJ adjusting YCC or pushing interest rates above zero was just a matter of time and execution, given the pressures arising from its divergence from monetary policy elsewhere. A survey of global fund managers by BofA Securities out on Tuesday showed that expectations of further appreciation in the Japanese yen in January were the highest in 16 years. The dollar index, which measures the safe-haven dollar against six peers, rose 0.4% at 102.84. It has been undermined lately by falling U.S. bond yields as markets wager the Federal Reserve can be less aggressive in hiking rates. Longer-dated bonds elsewhere also rose. In the Treasury market, the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes slid 5 basis points to 3.4848%. Oil prices jumped on hopes of Chinese demand rebounding. Brent crude futures rose 0.8% to $86.56 while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up 0.8%, at $80.85. At the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said he was convinced Europe's largest economy would not fall into a recession. China's Vice Premier Liu He also welcomed foreign investment and declared his country open to the world after three years of pandemic isolation. Data on Tuesday showed China's economic growth had slumped in 2022 to 3.0% - the weakest rate in nearly half a century. Spot gold eased 0.6% to $1899.23 per ounce.

Everything is low and cheap

USDJPY FORMED LOWER LOW AND SUPPORTED OFF OF DESCENDING TRENDLINE

By Rae Wee and Alun John SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar started the week on the back foot, hitting a seven-month low against a basket of major peers in Asian trade before steadying, with the yen in particular focus due to traders' bets the Bank of Japan will tweak its yield control policy further. The euro hit a fresh nine-month top of $1.0874 in early trade before retreating to last stand 0.16% lower at $1.0816, while the Australian dollar breached the key $0.7000 level for the first time since August, before dipping back to $0.6962. Thanks also to early strength from sterling and the Japanese yen, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, slumped to a seven-month trough of 101.77, extending its selloff from last week after data showed that U.S consumer prices fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December. With decades-high inflation in the world's largest economy showing signs of cooling, investors are now growing increasingly confident that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle, and that rates will not go as high as previously feared. The Fed's aggressive rate increases were a main driver of the dollar index's 8% surge last year, before signs that inflation was peaking brought it back down. The dollar has largely traded steady against most currencies since last week's data. "It's too soon to imagine a significant dollar downtrend, we've had some dollar repricing certainly, but for broad-based dollar weakness you'll need to really see Fed expectations roll over materially and the Fed potentially cutting rates at some point, and we are not at this point," said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier. Markets are now pricing in a 91% chance of a 25-basis-point increase when the Fed announces its policy decision in February, with a 9% chance of a 50-bp hike. The dollar steadied in European trading, regaining ground against the pound which was last down 0.3% at $1.2195. MARKETS CHALLENGE BOJ A particular focus for currency markets this week is the Japanese yen, due to speculation that the Bank of Japan will make further tweaks to, or fully abandon, its yield control policy at a meeting scheduled to conclude Wednesday. The dollar slipped to a more than seven-month low on the yen in early trading, before recovering and was last at 128.4 yen, up 0.4%. "I think the whole world will be focused on Wednesday ... and probably the week in G10 (currencies) will be defined by what happens to the yen and yen crosses, out of that," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) (NAB). "I don't think (the BOJ) has the luxury of time to say that they're going to assess and wait until Q2 or Kuroda to see out his term without making any further changes." BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will step down in April. Investors have been pressing for the BOJ to shift away from its ultra-easy monetary policy, which caused the yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bonds to breach the central bank's new ceiling for two sessions. U.S. markets are closed on Monday for a holiday, making for thin trading.

Dollar finds its footing near seven-month low, all eyes on yen

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TP2 WAS SUCH A LOW

**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [January 13, 2023]: Buy the Dips in Gold** JANUARY 13, 2023 — FRIDAY AM The ES, NQ, and YM have pulled back from Thursday's close and are trading deep within yday's range. If the markets can find a strong morning low, we could see a moderate bounce into the close. Failure to get back above yMID, however, will suggest a return to yLO. Crude Oil continues a modest rally, but could find resistance soon. Bulls will look to buy the dips in Gold, as it remains extremely bullish.

By Sonali Paul and Mohi Narayan (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Friday, set to gain more than 6% for the week, on solid signs of demand growth in top oil importer China and expectations of less aggressive interest rate rises in the United States. Brent crude futures rose by 5 cents to $84.08 a barrel by 0746 GMT, off a session low of $83.50. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 13 cents to $78.52 a barrel after falling to $77.97 earlier in the session. Brent has jumped 6.7% so far this week and WTI is up 6.2%, recouping most of last week's losses. Analysts said recent Chinese crude purchases and a pick-up in road traffic fuelled confidence in a demand recovery in the world's second-largest economy following the reopening of its borders and easing of COVID-19 curbs after protests last year. "Given the focus on energy security, we anticipate that Chinese imports will continue to pick up, particularly as refinery runs ramp and stockpiling crude remains a strategic priority," RBC commodity strategist Michael Tran told clients in a note. In another encouraging sign, ANZ analysts said a congestion index covering the 15 Chinese cities with the largest number of vehicle registrations had risen 31% from a week earlier. Oil prices have also been buoyed by a slide in the dollar to a nearly nine-month low, after data showed U.S. inflation fell for the first time in 2-1/2 years, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of rate hikes. A weaker greenback tends to boost demand for oil, as it makes the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. However, some of the week's gains are likely to fizzle out in Asian trade, said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda (NASDAQ:VNDA) Insights. "Crude is in for a correction, even if a modest one .... The past two sessions were almost entirely driven by renewed Fed pivot hopes, which, going by the experience of the past quarter, tend to be a short-lived phenomenon," Hari said.

By Yimou Lee and Sarah Wu TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC reported a forecast-beating 78% rise in quarterly profit on Thursday, as strong sales of advanced chips helped it defy a broader industry downturn that battered cheaper commodity chips. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC), the world's largest contract chipmaker, is a rare bright spot in the global tech industry which is grappling with worsening consumer demand brought about by decades-high inflation rates, rising interest rates and economic downturn. Rival Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF) Co Ltd's quarterly profit tumbled two-thirds to an eight-year low, with the South Korean firm blaming a weakening global economy which hammered memory chip prices and curbed demand for electronic devices. TSMC's dominance in making some of the most advanced chips for high-end customers such as Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) has shielded it from downturn. Still, it cut its 2023 capital expenditure plan on Thursday, underscoring worsening demand outlook. The chipmaker now expects to spend $32 billion to $36 billion, versus $36.3 billion in 2022, and sees first-quarter revenue in a range of $16.7 billion to $17.5 billion, compared with $17.57 billion a year earlier. "We have confidence in the second half the business would rebound," boosted by product launches including for technology such as artificial intelligence, CEO C.C. Wei said on Thursday. "We expect the whole industry to drop slightly but TSMC to grow slightly" in 2023, he said. TSMC, Asia's most-valuable listed firm and backed by billionaire Warren Buffett's investment conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKa) Inc, has repeatedly said business would continue to benefit from a "mega-trend" of demand for high-performance computing chips for 5G networks and data centres, as well as increased use of chips in gadgets and vehicles. It reiterated on Thursday slower demand was a cyclical issue and 2023 overall would be a slight growth year for the company. For October-December, TSMC booked record net profit of T$295.9 billion ($9.72 billion) from T$166.2 billion a year earlier. That compared with the T$289.44 billion average of 21 analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv. Revenue climbed 26.7% to $19.93 billion, versus TSMC's prior estimated range of $19.9 billion to $20.7 billion. The fourth quarter "was dampened by end-market demand softness and customers' inventory adjustment," Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang told a briefing. Such conditions will carry into the first quarter, Huang said. TSMC's share price fell 27.1% in 2022, but is up 8.5% so far this year giving the firm a market value of $412.78 billion. The stock rose 0.4% on Thursday versus a 0.1% fall for the benchmark index. ($1 = 30.4420 Taiwan dollars)

By Shubham Batra and Amruta Khandekar (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes rose on Wednesday led by gains in rate-sensitive growth stocks as the focus shifts to a key inflation reading due later this week, which would provide more clues on the Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory. Nearly all major S&P sectoral indexes were trading in the green, with Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc up 4.0% and 3.8% respectively, and among top boosts to the benchmark S&P 500 index. Gains in both the stocks pushed up the consumer discretionary sector nearly 2%. Only healthcare stocks were an outlier, down marginally. Markets are facing renewed optimism in 2023 on hopes that a slowdown in the U.S. economy could pave the way for a less hawkish stance from the U.S. central bank. The highly awaited inflation report from the Labor Department on Thursday is expected to show U.S. consumer prices likely grew 6.5% year-on-year in December, from 7.1% a month ago, while core inflation grew 5.7% in December, from 6% in November. While further evidence of an easing in price pressures could bolster hopes of the Fed pausing its rate hiking cycle soon, recent comments by some policymakers have supported the view that the Fed needs to remain aggressive in raising interest rates to fight inflation. "(Investors) feel inflation is being tamed and that there's more risk of not being in the market than there is of being in the market," said Christopher Grisanti, chief equity strategist at MAI Capital Management in Cleveland. "If there's good inflation numbers, February may be the last hiking, or they (the Fed) may even pause." Money market participants see a 77% chance the Fed will raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% in February, and see rates peaking at 4.92% by June. Wall Street's main indexes rallied on Tuesday as Fed Chair Jerome Powell refrained from commenting on the outlook for interest rates ahead of the inflation data, but said the Fed's independence was essential for it to battle inflation. This week marks the start of the earnings season for S&P 500 companies, with Wall Street's biggest banks expected to report lower quarterly profits amid risks of a recession due to monetary policy tightening. At 10:05 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 100.21 points, or 0.30%, at 33,804.31, the S&P 500 was up 19.72 points, or 0.50%, at 3,938.97, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 69.58 points, or 0.65%, at 10,812.21. Home goods retailer Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (NASDAQ:BBBY) jumped 31.2%, after logging gains in the previous session despite bleak quarterly results as retail investors speculated it could be a potential acquisition target and as short-sellers closed out bets. Shares of airlines such as American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) Group Inc and Spirit Airlines (NYSE:SAVE) Inc reversed premarket losses to rise between 0.8% and 2.5%, as U.S. flights were slowly beginning to resume departures and a ground stop was lifted after the Federal Aviation Administration scrambled to fix a system outage overnight. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners for a 3.99-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.24-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded nine new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 11 new lows.

Futures , coffee broke below $150 today . With the new running yearly low of 48 , looks like the 120 to 135 zone is next . This macro bear directional is on or neutral for a minimum of 12 months .

people were dumb to think it would stay low forever