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By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil prices scaled one-year highs on Thursday while world stocks eyed their longest losing streak in two years as worries deepened about persistently high interest rates, sending investors to shelter in the safety of a surging U.S. dollar. A surprisingly big drop in U.S. crude stocks has stoked concern that fuel demand is outstripping production right when markets least needed another supply-side shock. U.S. crude rose 3.6% on Wednesday and another 1% on Thursday to hit $95 a barrel for the first time since August 2022. Brent futures hit a one-year high at $97.69. [O/R] The prospect of higher energy costs and the spectre of sticky inflation put more pressure on longer-dated bonds. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were steady in Asia, but at 4.599% are up more than 50 basis points this month. "It doesn't help," said ING economist Rob Carnell. "What's really starting to weigh on stocks is this upwards push in Treasury yields, and it's a pretty sensible response," he said, with equities at risk of further losses even if bonds rebound. Traders are also watching lawmakers' efforts to avoid a U.S. government shutdown. MSCI's index of global equities moved a fraction lower and could notch its 10th straight daily fall on Thursday, which would equal a long losing streak from 2021. MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was pinned near a 10-month trough. U.S. and European futures fluctuated either side of flat. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.8%, with investors selling stocks that went ex-dividend. The strong dollar has the Japanese yen within a whisker of 150-per-dollar, seen as a level likely to provoke an official response or intervention. [.T][FRX/] Dollar/yen hit 149.71 on Wednesday and traded at 149.40 on Thursday in Asia. The euro dropped 0.7% to a nine-month low of $1.0488 on Wednesday and last bought $1.0503. German and Spanish inflation data are due later in the day, as are a number of central banker appearances, most notably Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 2000 GMT. CHINA BREAK Chinese markets limped toward a long holiday that begins on Friday and the break may be a welcome one for traders since recent weeks have brought a drumbeat of bad news and selling. On Thursday shares in cash-strapped developer China Evergrande (HK:3333) were suspended in Hong Kong after a report that chairman Hui Ka Yan was under police watch. The stock, once worth more than HK$30, had closed at HK$0.32 on Wednesday. Investors worry a liquidation would further damage the tanking property market and stifle signs of recovery in parts of the Chinese economy. "China’s property-sector stress will continue to pose cross-sector credit risks in the near term," said Fitch Ratings on Thursday. "The government’s modest policy easing to date is unlikely to drive a sharp turnaround in homebuyers’ sentiment." The Hang Seng fell 1% and is close to a 10-month low. The mainland CSI300 fell 0.2%. China's yuan is also coming under pressure and only a very strong fixing of its trading band has held off sellers. The yuan last changed hands at 7.3057 per dollar, not far from the weaker extremity of its trading band. Higher energy prices helped the Australian dollar to stabilise at $0.6378. [AUD/] Gold is heading for its worst week since February as the rise in Treasury yields drives investors out of the precious metal, which pays no yield, and it nursed losses at $1,875 an ounce.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/26/target-says-it-will-close-nine-stores-citing-violence-and-theft-.html

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian stocks stumbled on Monday after China delivered a smaller cut to lending rates than markets had counted on, continuing Beijing's run of disappointingly frugal stimulus steps. China's central bank trimmed its one-year lending rate by 10 basis points and left its five-year rate unmoved, a surprise to analysts who had expected cuts of 15 basis points to both. Disappointment at the meagre move saw Chinese blue chips ease 0.4% to the lowest in almost nine months, while the Australian dollar took a brief dip as a proxy for China risk. Investors have been hoping for a repeat of the massive fiscal spending that has juiced the economy in the past, even though Beijing seems reluctant to add to its borrowing tasks. Indeed, there was chatter in the market that the authorities skipped a cut in the five-year rate precisely because there was more significant action on the way. Sentiment was also helped by a rush of Chinese companies outlining plans for share buybacks as regulators voiced support for the moves. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan still slipped 0.4% to a fresh low for the year, adding to a 3.9% dive last week. Japan's Nikkei was up 0.4%, though that follows a 3.2% drop last week. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures both edged up 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were near flat. Earnings from AI-darling Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) on Wednesday will be a major test of valuations. Analysts are concerned the market has got too long, especially of tech, leaving it vulnerable to a deeper pullback. BofA's latest survey of fund managers found sentiment was the least bearish since February 2022, while cash levels were at nearly a two-year low, and 3 out of 4 surveyed expect a soft landing or no landing for the global economy. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, argue there is still scope for investors to add to equity positions. "The re-opening of the buy-back blackout window will provide a boost to equity demand in coming weeks although a flurry of expected equity issuance this fall may provide a partial offset," they wrote in a note. PARSING POWELL Stock valuations have been pressured in part by a sharp rise in bond yields, with the U.S. 10-year hitting 10-month highs last week at 4.328%. Early Monday, yields were up again at 4.28% and a break above 4.338% would take them to levels not seen since 2007. Markets assume Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will note the jump in yields at the Jackson Hole conference this week, and the recent run of strong economic data. The Atlanta Fed's GDP Now tracker is running at a heady 5.8% for this quarter. "It's an opportunity for Powell to give an updated assessment on economic conditions, which now appear stronger than anticipated and reinforce the case for additional rate hikes," Barclays (LON:BARC) analyst Marc Giannoni said. "Even so, we would be surprised if he provided specific guidance, with key August prints for employment, CPI and retail sales all to come before the September meeting." A majority of polled analysts think the Fed is done hiking, while futures imply around a 31% chance of one more increase by December. The rise in yields has helped the dollar notch five weeks of gains and a nine-month top on the Japanese yen at 146.56. On Monday, it was trading at 145.36 with the market wary of risk of Japanese intervention. [USD/] The euro was also firm at 158.14 yen, but under pressure from the dollar at $1.0881 after losing 0.7% last week. The ascent of the dollar and yields was weighing on gold at $1,891 an ounce, having touched a five-month low last week. [GOL/] Oil prices edged higher on Monday, having snapped a seven-week winning streak as concerns about Chinese demand offset tight supplies. [O/R] Brent was up 52 cents at $85.32 a barrel, while U.S. crude bounced 62 cents to $81.87 per barrel. Prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) were underpinned by the risk of a strike at Australian offshore facilities that could affect around 10% of global supply.

By Johann M Cherian and Bansari Mayur Kamdar (Reuters) - Wall Street rose on Monday with key benchmarks set to end July higher on upbeat company earnings and hopes of a soft landing for a resilient U.S. economy, while cooling inflation fuels bets on a rate-hike pause. Investors await quarterly reports from Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and AMD later this week, while July ISM Manufacturing reading and three sets of employment data, including July's non-farm payrolls, are also in focus. Second-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are now estimated to have fallen 6.4% year-over-year, according to Refinitiv data. While still negative, the forecast is an improvement from the 7.9% drop estimated a week earlier. "We've wrapped up a solid month ... and we're at a point in time where we clearly have seen enough of the earnings reports to know that they're going to come in better than feared," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth. The tech-heavy Nasdaq led Wall Street higher last week as megacap growth companies such as Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta Platforms as well as chipmakers Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Lam Research (NASDAQ:LRCX) posted strong quarterly earnings. "Towards the end of the week you have economic data and if we were to see a plateau in manufacturing activity but not a collapse of job creation, that would that would clearly keep that soft landing narrative squarely on the table," Hogan said. Citigroup (NYSE:C) raised its 2023-end and mid-2024 S&P 500 targets to 4,600 and 5,000, respectively, to reflect a higher possibility of a soft landing. The benchmark index is 4.9% away from its all-time intraday high hit on January 4, 2022. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the central bank was "walking the line pretty well" on bringing inflation down without causing a recession and will watch the data to judge if more monetary tightening may be appropriate in September. At 9:48 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 54.51 points, or 0.15%, at 35,513.80, the S&P 500 was up 10.59 points, or 0.23%, at 4,592.82, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 43.63 points, or 0.30%, at 14,360.29. Nine of the top 11 S&P 500 sectors gained, led by a 1.7% rise in energy stocks. Financial services provider SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) climbed 20.9% on reporting better-than-expected quarterly revenue. ON Semiconductor added 4.6% after the chipmaker forecast third-quarter revenue above market estimates. Weighing on the Dow, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) shed 2.8% after a U.S. judge shot down the drugmaker's second attempt to resolve tens of thousands of lawsuits over its talc products. U.S.-listed shares of Xpeng (NYSE:XPEV) sank 11.6% on report that brokerage UBS downgraded the electric-vehicle maker to "neutral", while Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) advanced 3.5%, outperforming its tech peers, after Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) raised its rating to "overweight" on the photoshop maker. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 3.50-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.35-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 16 new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 52 new highs and 19 new lows.

Investing.com - European stock markets are expected to edge higher at the open Friday, continuing the previous session’s positive tone on the prospect of the European Central Bank pausing its cycle of monetary tightening as soon as September. At 02:00 ET (06:00 GMT), the DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.3% higher, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 0.5% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.2%. ECB hints at pausing rate hikes European stocks posted healthy gains on Thursday, with the DAX climbing 1.7% and the CAC 40 over 2%, as investors begin to position for the European Central Bank pausing its series of interest rate hikes. The ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a 23-year high on Thursday, as widely expected, but President Christine Lagarde surprised the market by hinting that this tightening run, which currently consists of nine consecutive rate hikes, could soon be coming to an end. "Do we have more ground to cover? At this point in time I wouldn't say so," Lagarde said during the press conference that followed the most recent rate increase, while stressing that the ECB's decisions would depend on incoming data. European inflation data in focus There is plenty of economic data for investors to study Friday, including important inflation numbers from France and Germany, the two largest economies in the eurozone. Data released earlier Friday showed that inflation in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia, the country’s most populous state, rose 0.2% on the month in July, an annual rise of 5.8%, below the 6.2% expected. Additionally, French gross domestic product climbed 0.5% in the second quarter, an improvement from the revised 0.1% growth in the previous quarter, and also better than expected. Earnings season continues Turning to the corporate sector, Swiss specialty chemicals maker Clariant (SIX:CLN) impressed with its second-quarter core profit, helped by price hikes in catalysts as well as adsorbents and additives businesses. French concessions and construction group Vinci (EPA:SGEF) reported a jump in its half-year core profit, boosted by recovering traffic at its airports, while Amundi (EPA:AMUN), Europe's biggest fund manager, posted better-than-expected quarterly net inflows. Oil prices slip back from three-month highs Oil prices retreated Friday from recent highs, but remained on course for another positive week after the release of data showing that the U.S. economy grew more than expected in the second quarter, driving down fears of a recession that could potentially dent oil demand this year. The data also came amid increasing signs of tightness in the oil market, as the effects of production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia began to be felt. By 02:00 ET, the U.S. crude futures traded 0.3% lower at $79.83 a barrel, while the Brent contract dropped 0.4% to $83.45. Both contracts were set to add between 2.5% and 3.5% this week, their fifth straight positive week, having climbed to three-month highs during the previous session. Additionally, gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,951.55/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.1% higher at 1.0981.

By Bansari Mayur Kamdar and Johann M Cherian (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes slipped on Wednesday as investors awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve's June meeting for clues on the central bank's monetary policy path, while Sino-U.S. tensions and weak economic data from Beijing dented sentiment. Investors are focused on the Fed minutes, expected to be released around 2 p.m. ET, as they resume trading after the July 4 Independence Day holiday. Bets for a 25-basis-point rate hike in July stood at 83%, while traders have priced in a 32% chance the U.S. central bank would deliver another hike by October, according to Refinitiv data. [IRPR] "There is going to be a little bit of dissension among the ranks and the overall tone will be let's see how this plays out," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. "Stocks have accounted for another 25 basis point rate hike when the Fed meets later this month, but a lot of people are divided on whether or not there's going to be another rate hike (after July)." Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors fell in early trading with material shares leading declines, down 1.7%, while financials lost 0.9%. Traders also await U.S. factory orders data, due at 10 a.m. ET, to gauge the impact of higher rates on the economy after a survey showed on Monday manufacturing slumped in June. More economic data, including the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, is scheduled for release later this week. Chip stocks such as Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) fell 0.7% and 1.0%, respectively, after China said it would control exports of some metals widely used in the semiconductor industry as tensions between Beijing and Washington rise over access to high-tech microchips. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index lost 0.9%. Shares of Wolfspeed gained 12.8% after the company signed a 10-year silicon carbide wafer supply agreement with Renesas Electronics Corp. U.S. main indexes kicked off the third quarter with slim gains in a holiday-shortened session on Monday, led by Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) after the electric-vehicle company posted record second-quarter deliveries. At 9:48 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 147.62 points, or 0.43%, at 34,270.85, the S&P 500 was down 11.10 points, or 0.25%, at 4,444.49, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 6.07 points, or 0.04%, at 13,810.71. China's June services activity expanded at the slowest pace in five months, raising concerns about global economic recovery, a private-sector survey showed. Among other movers, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) gained 1.8% as Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) raised its rating and price target. United Parcel Service (NYSE:UPS) slid 2.1% after the Teamsters Union and the postal service operator accused each other of walking away from negotiations. Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) rose 4.4% after the drugmaker signed an agreement to work towards opportunities to research, develop and manufacture mRNA medicines in China. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 3.73-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.24-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 6 new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 23 new highs and 21 new lows.

Investing.com -- Most Asian stocks retreated on Wednesday as caution kicked in ahead of a testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while investors also awaited more stimulus measures in China after an underwhelming rate cut. Powell is set to testify before Congress later in the day, potentially offering more cues on the path of U.S. interest rates after somewhat mixed signals from a Fed meeting last week. An unexpected rise in U.S. housing activity also pushed up some expectations that the Fed will have enough headroom to maintain a hawkish stance. Chinese stocks slide as rate cut disappoints China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes fell 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, as a cut in the country’s benchmark loan prime rate (LPR) failed to impress markets. The People’s Bank of China cut both its one-year and five-year LPR by 10 basis points on Tuesday, disappointing some traders hoping for a bigger cut in the five-year rate, which determines mortgage prices. But analysts expect Beijing to roll out more stimulus measures in the coming months to help shore up a slowing economic recovery. Still, Chinese markets took little support from this notion, declining steadily ahead of market holidays on Thursday and Friday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was the worst performer in Asia for the day, down 2% to a two-week low as heavyweight technology stocks sank the most on fears of rising U.S. interest rates. Alibaba Group (NYSE:BABA) (HK:9988) sank over 3% even after the firm appointed a new CEO, as it moves towards spinning off and listing its biggest sectors. Other technology-heavy bourses also retreated, with South Korea’s KOSPI down 0.6%, while the Taiwan Weighted index shed 0.2%. Concerns over China spilled over into Australian markets, with the ASX 200 down 0.3%. Japan among few gainers as BOJ doves prevail Japan’s Nikkei 225 index added 0.3%, while the broader TOPIX rose 0.4%. Both indexes traded close to their highest levels in 33 years, buoyed largely by the prospect of monetary policy remaining accommodative in the country. The minutes of the Bank of Japan’s April meeting showed that nine out of 10 members of the board had no intention of altering its ultra-loose policy in the near-term, and even the outlier suggested the bank wait before considering a change. A dovish BOJ has been among the biggest factors behind a Japanese stock rally this year, as monetary conditions in the rest of the globe tightened further. Japan’s economy has also remained fairly resilient despite increased global headwinds.

By Alun John LONDON (Reuters) - Global stocks and commodities rose on Friday while the dollar headed for its biggest weekly drop since March, as sentiment was buoyed by signs the Fed will skip a rate hike at its next meeting and by the approval of U.S. debt ceiling legislation. Markets are now focused on U.S. jobs data due at 0830 EST (1230 GMT), the most significant macroeconomic release of the week, for more cues on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path. The U.S. Labor Department's employment report is likely to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 190,000 jobs last month after rising 253,000 in April, according to a Reuters survey of economists. "The release is really going to dictate the future of Fed policy after the speech of the vice chair-designate Jefferson that likely took a June rate hike off the table," said Jeff Schulze, head of economic and market strategy at Clearbridge "The only way that (a June rate increase) is going to be in play is if you see a large beat to the upside of both payrolls and CPI." Vice chair nominee Philip Jefferson said on Wednesday skipping a rate hike at a coming meeting would allow the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee to see more data before making decisions about the extent of additional policy firming, remarks echoed by several other Fed speakers. Jefferson's nomination as vice chair is still pending approval from the U.S. Senate. Market pricing indicates roughly a 75% chance the Fed will hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting, according to the CME's Fedwatch tool, though there is roughly a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at one of the Fed's June or July meetings. The dovish tone caused a rally in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year yield, last at 3.6104%, was steady on the day on Friday, but was set for a weekly drop of around 20 basis points, its biggest weekly fall since mid March. [US/] That helped shares to rally, and Europe's broad STOXX 600 index rose 1% and headed for a second day of gains. European mining stocks increased 4.4%, boosted by a Bloomberg report China is working on new measures to support its property market. MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan rose 2.3% earlier on Friday, with Japan's Nikkei ending the day at its highest close since July 1990. (T) Nasdaq and S&P 500 futures were both up around 0.5% after each index reached nine-month closing highs on Thursday. [.N] DEBT DEAL Boosting the mood was the U.S. Senate passing bipartisan legislation backed by President Joe Biden that lifts the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, averting what would have been a first-ever default. "The fact that this is potentially getting resolved earlier does remove some potential distortions," said Phil Shucksmith, portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management Investors' focus now will turn to the market impact of the U.S. Treasury issuing more bonds to refill its empty coffers, which could put pressure on liquidity, or ready cash available to banks. "We've probably got some degree of rebuild of that treasury general account," said Shucksmith, which, along with quantitative tightening, "means I think there's going to be tightening of financial conditions." Lower U.S. yields were also playing out in currency markets with the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, steady on the day at 103.49, but set for a weekly fall of 0.7%, its biggest weekly decline since March. Gains against the dollar have been shared out fairly broadly among other currencies, but sterling was to the fore, set for a weekly gain of 1.4%, its most since December. The euro is up 0.27% against the dollar this week, dragged by lower European yields after inflation showed signs of slowing, welcome news for the European Central Bank and reinforcing market bets that the ECB too could be done with interest rate hikes in the coming few months. [GVD/EUR] The bullish sentiment, softer dollar and China property news helped push oil prices higher, with U.S. crude up 1.7% at $71.29 per barrel and Brent at $75.53, up 1.7%. Markets are also weighing the likelihood of price-supportive OPEC+ production cuts over the weekend.[O/R] Copper prices were heading for their first weekly gain since April with other metals trading higher too. [MET/L] Spot gold was up marginally at $1,979 an ounce, but set for its biggest weekly gain in nearly two months, as a softer dollar and lower yields bolstered the bullion's appeal. [GOL/]

Investing.com -- Most Asian stocks moved in a flat-to-low range on Thursday as softer-than-expected Chinese inflation data pointed to a slowing economic rebound in the region’s largest economy, while mixed U.S. inflation data also weighed. China’s Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indexes moved less than 0.1% in either direction, as data showed that consumer inflation in the country barely grew, while producer inflation fell to its lowest level in nearly three years in April. The reading, which follows disappointing trade data from the country this week, raised more doubts over a post-COVID economic rebound in China, and soured sentiment towards its markets. Weakness in China spilled over into Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng losing 0.2%. But electric vehicle maker Li Auto Inc (HK:2015) was among the few outliers for the day, up as much as 16% after it logged a bumper first-quarter profit. Other China-exposed markets also remained under pressure. Australia’s ASX 200 index fell 0.2% as heavyweight, China-dependent mining stocks slid while the Taiwan Weighted index lost 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was flat as investors awaited more quarterly earnings from the country. Technology investment giant SoftBank Group Corp (TYO:9984) is set to report its earnings after the bell on Thursday. Still, the Nikkei was trading close to a nine-month high following a string of robust earnings from the country’s biggest trading houses earlier this month. Broader Asian markets were muted as traders digested mixed U.S. consumer inflation data. While the reading did ease slightly more than expected through April, it still remained well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% annual target. Month-on-month inflation also increased, indicating that U.S. price pressures remained sticky and were unlikely to elicit a less hawkish Federal Reserve in the coming months. While markets widely expect the Fed to hold interest rates during its June meeting, investors are also trimming expectations for a rate cut this year. The prospect of U.S. interest rates staying higher for longer bodes poorly for risk-driven Asian markets, as monetary conditions tighten across the globe. Still, some Asian markets took support from the softer U.S. inflation reading, as well as a strong overnight finish in U.S. technology stocks. India’s Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex 30 indexes rose slightly in early trade, while South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.4%. The Philippine Composite index rose 0.5% after data showed the country’s economy grew more than expected in the first quarter.

ADP says U.S. added 296,000 private jobs in April, a nine-month high

By Ahmad Ghaddar LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped on Wednesday, extending sharp losses from the previous session, even after a report showed that U.S. inventories fell last week, as the market took stock of weak U.S. data that raised fears of recession in the world's biggest economy. Brent crude fell by $1.31, or 1.6%, to $79.46 a barrel by 1335 GMT, breaking below the $80 mark for the first time since March 31. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 99 cents, or 1.3%, to $76.08. Oil prices have erased all their gains since the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and producer allies such as Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, announced in early April an additional output reduction until the end of the year. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that OPEC+ remains an efficient tool for coordination on global oil markets. Oil prices dived more than 2% on Tuesday amid lingering economic concerns and expectations of further interest rate hikes that could curtail fuel demand growth are countering signs of improving short-term consumption gains. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April as worries about the future mounted, heightening the risk of the economy falling into recession this year. "This (data) will add credence to claims that the U.S. economy is edging closer to a recession," said PVM Oil's Stephen Brennock. Investors also showed concern that potential interest rate hikes by inflation-fighting central banks could slow economic growth and dent energy demand in the United States, Britain and the European Union. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are all expected to raise rates at their coming meetings. The Fed meets over May 2-3. A report showing a fall in U.S. oil stocks limited losses, however, especially on WTI. U.S. crude oil stocks fell by about 6.1 million barrels in the week ended April 21, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Tuesday. Analysts had expected crude inventories to fall by about 1.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.9 million barrels last week while distillate inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, the sources said. Official stockpiles data from the U.S. government is due on Wednesday. U.S. crude oil stockpiles have been falling since the middle of March as refineries have increased runs to produce more gasoline ahead of the peak summer demand period that starts in May. This has pushed WTI futures prices into backwardation, when prompt futures are higher than later-dated futures, reflecting the higher refinery demand.

By Joyce Lee and Heekyong Yang SEOUL (Reuters) - Samsung Electronics (OTC:SSNLF) Co Ltd said on Friday it would make a "meaningful" cut to chip production, following the lead of smaller rivals, as it grapples with a sharp global downturn in semiconductor demand that has sent prices plummeting. The unusual output cut by the world's biggest memory chipmaker - with no previous announcement recalled by Samsung (KS:005930) officials and analysts - came after it flagged a worse-than-expected 96% plunge in first-quarter profit. Investors brushed off the profit miss, betting the move by the industry leader would support chip prices that had fallen by about 70% over the last nine months. Samsung jumped 4.5% in early trading in the biggest one-day rise since September, while rival SK Hynix Inc's shares surged 5.6%. Smartphone and personal computer makers had stocked up on chips during the pandemic when demand for consumer devices surged, but they are now running down inventories as shoppers cut back on purchases amid rising inflation. Samsung said memory demand had dropped sharply because of a weak global economy and customers slowing purchases as they focused on using up their stocks. "We are lowering the production of memory chips by a meaningful level, especially that of products with supply secured," it added, in a reference to those with sufficient inventories. Samsung did not disclose the size of the planned production cut, but it sent a strong signal for a company that had previously said it would make small adjustments like pauses for refurbishing production lines but not a full-blown cut. "The fact that the No. 1 market share firm is joining production cuts lifted shares... SK Hynix and Micron (NASDAQ:MU) have declared production cuts, but only Samsung had not, so the market was watching for it," said John Park, an analyst at Daishin Securities. "Today's production cut signal casts a positive outlook for a memory chip rebound in the second half of the year." Although cutting short-term production, Samsung said it was still making long-term investments in infrastructure and research to secure needed clean rooms for chip production and expand its technological lead. It did not say how its 2023 investment plans would be affected, having previously flagged capital spending similar to the 53.1 trillion won investment in 2022. SK Hynix said in October it would more than halve its capital spending in 2023 versus 2022, while Micron cut fiscal 2023 investment plans by more than 30% in September. RECORD CHIP LOSS Samsung estimated its operating profit fell to 600 billion won ($455.5 million) in January-March, from 14.12 trillion won a year earlier, in a short preliminary earnings statement. It was the lowest profit for any quarter in 14 years. The first-quarter profit fell short of a 873 billion won Refinitiv SmartEstimate, weighted toward analysts who are more consistently accurate. Multiple estimates were revised down earlier this week. Its chip division is likely to report a record loss of 2.1 trillion won ($1.6 billion), according to an average of analyst forecasts, and post another 2 trillion won loss in the current quarter, a major divergence for what had been Samsung's most important cash cow, generating about half of its profits in better years. Analysts said Samsung's production cut might improve its performance slightly in the current quarter and could also cement or hasten the rebound of memory chip prices. "Samsung talking about production cuts is evidence of how bad the current slump really is," said Greg Roh, head of research at Hyundai Motor Securities. The company is due to release detailed earnings, including divisional breakdowns, later this month. ($1 = 1,319.0000 won)

By Ankika Biswas and Amruta Khandekar (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes were muted on Tuesday as investors awaited key economic data that could decide the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary tightening path, with gains in shares of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) capping losses on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. Tesla Inc rose 1.7% in early trade as sales of its China-made electric vehicles rose in March, bouncing back from 6% declines on Monday following data on March-quarter deliveries. The stock's move made consumer discretionary shares the top gainer on the S&P 500, while energy stocks edged lower after a strong rally on Monday. Rising oil prices following the OPEC+ group's output cuts have renewed fears about inflation, denting hopes of an end to aggressive interest rate hikes despite recent signs of cooling prices and turbulence in the banking sector. "We think that it (soaring oil prices) will cause inflation to remain sticky and the Fed definitely wants to ensure that they have a stranglehold on inflation before they take their foot off the brake," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York. Bets by traders of a 25-basis point rate hike in May stood at 60%, with odds of a pause at 40%, according to CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) Fedwatch tool. Later on Tuesday, investors will watch out for data on U.S. job openings that is likely to show a fall in February, as they attempt to assess if the aggressive rate hikes have cooled the economy to the Fed's satisfaction. A separate report expected is likely to show factory orders fell 0.5% in February and will come on the heels of surveys showing weak U.S. manufacturing activity in March. "Factory orders are expected to show a decline. That would imply that the war against inflation is working," Stovall said. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq have gained 7.5% and 16.5% so far in 2023, steadying from their worst annual drop last year since the 2008 financial crisis. At 9:39 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 5.83 points, or 0.02%, at 33,606.98, the S&P 500 was up 3.91 points, or 0.09%, at 4,128.42, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 7.55 points, or 0.06%, at 12,197.00. Among stocks, Virgin Orbit Holdings Inc tanked 20.1% after the satellite launch company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on failing to secure long-term funding. AMC Entertainment (NYSE:AMC) Holdings Inc shares tumbled 15.9% after the movie theater chain said it agreed to settle litigation and proceed with converting its preferred stock into common shares. Shares of Digital World Acquisition Corp fell 4.3% after the SPAC linked to former U.S. President Donald Trump delayed the filing of its annual financial report. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners for a 1.10-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.27-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded nine new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 36 new highs and 38 new lows.

By Amruta Khandekar and Ankika Biswas (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes gained on Friday after data showed inflation slowed in February, supporting hopes of a softer monetary policy approach from the Federal Reserve. The Commerce Department's report showed the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.3% in February, on a monthly basis, compared with a 0.6% rise in January. Traders' bets of a 25-basis-point rate hike in May stand at 52.5%, with odds of a pause at 47.5%, according to CME Group's (NASDAQ:CME) Fedwatch tool. "As the Fed rate hikes are now kind of starting to take hold right about a year later since they first began perhaps it is a sign that their hikes are starting to cool inflation," said Brandon Pizzurro, director of public investments at Guidestone Capital Management. "But in terms of the Fed's calculus, they'll have to have more confirmation that disinflation is really taking hold beyond just a few data points here and there." Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted that it was still early for the central bank to assess whether its rate hikes have gone far enough to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target. Consumer discretionary and real-estate were the top sector index performers with around 0.9% gains each. As U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to a session low of 3.51% after the data, major growth names like Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), Meta Platforms and Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) gained between 0.3% and 0.8%. Limiting gains on the S&P 500, Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) dropped 3.0% after news that China was set to review the chipmaker's products sold in the country. The broader Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 0.5%. Friday will cap a turbulent first quarter for stocks, marked by sticky inflation, shockwaves from the collapse of two regional U.S. banks and signs of trouble in some European banks, as well as a repricing of interest rate expectations from the Fed. The Nasdaq is set for its biggest quarterly percentage gain since the end of 2020 as investors shifted toward major technology and growth stocks from financial stocks amid fears of a bank contagion, while the cyclicals-heavy Dow Jones is in the red. The benchmark S&P 500 has gained nearly 6% so far in the first quarter, with the technology sector up about 20% while the financials index is set for its worst quarter since June. ) At 9:46 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 176.19 points, or 0.54%, at 33,035.22, the S&P 500 was up 19.64 points, or 0.48%, at 4,070.47, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 63.40 points, or 0.53%, at 12,076.87. Virgin Orbit Holdings tanked 40.8%, a day after the rocket maker said it was cutting about 85% of staff. Companies linked to Donald Trump such as Digital World Acquisition Corp and Phunware Inc jumped 10.2% and 3.4%, respectively, amid retail investor interest, a day after the former president was indicted in a historic first. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 6.27-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 2.76-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded nine new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 35 new highs and 46 new lows.

By Jeslyn Lerh SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices extended their two-day winning streak on Wednesday, posting slight gains as the dollar weakened, while investors awaited more inventory data for clearer cues on demand trends. Brent crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.2%, to $83.86 a barrel by 0740 GMT, after gaining 3.3% in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 31 cents, or 0.4%, to $77.45, after adding 4.1% in the previous session. Oil benchmarks are expected to retain support after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded less hawkish on interest rates than markets had expected, while the latest data showed U.S. crude inventories fell despite earlier expectations of a climb. "The improved risk sentiment in the aftermath of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments, along with a weaker U.S. dollar, seem to be tapped on for some upside in oil prices, after seeing a lacklustre performance since end-January," said IG's market analyst Yeap Jun Rong. "The reservation is that the overnight downside reaction in the U.S. dollar has been more measured as compared to before," said Yeap, adding that any continued recovery in the dollar could still serve as a headwind for oil prices. The dollar index was down slightly on Wednesday, extending losses after Powell's comments on Tuesday, making oil cheaper for those holding other currencies. With less aggressive interest rate hikes in the United States, the market is hoping the world's biggest economy and oil consumer can dodge a sharp slowdown in economic activity or even a recession and avoid a slump in oil demand. "I think we're in a reasonably balanced market," said Westpac senior economist Justin Smirk. "If we have stronger than expected growth out of the developing world, (oil) prices will be firmer and OPEC will have to step up output. That's not our core view. We don't see a big surge in demand," he said. Supporting the market, weekly inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute industry group showed crude stocks fell by about 2.2 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 3, according to market sources. That defied expectations from nine analysts polled by Reuters, who had estimated crude stocks grew by 2.5 million barrels. However, gasoline and distillate inventories rose more than expected, with gasoline stocks up by about 5.3 million barrels and distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, up by about 1.1 million barrels. The market will be looking to see if data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, due at 1530 GMT, confirms the decline in crude stocks.

By Stefanno Sulaiman and Fransiska Nangoy JAKARTA (Reuters) -Indonesia's economic growth climbed to its strongest in nine years last year fuelled by revived spending from the lifting of pandemic restrictions and as a global commodity boom sent exports to a record high. But momentum slowed in the final quarter as prices moderated, and weaker global demand, higher inflation and a rise in interest rates could pose a drag on activity this year. Southeast Asia's largest economy expanded 5.31% in 2022, Statistics Indonesia data showed on Monday, its best annual growth rate since 2013, and faster than the 5.29% expected in a Reuters poll. In the fourth quarter, gross domestic product expanded 5.01% on an annual basis, compared with 4.84% growth predicted by the poll and 5.72% in the previous three months. The annual rate was the slowest since the third quarter of 2021, the statistics agency said. The resource-rich economy gained from high global commodities prices in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war that aided the rupiah and improved the country's current account, but global demand is faltering. "We expect growth to slow further over the coming quarters. Exports will struggle due to weaker global growth and lower commodity prices," Capital Economics analyst Shivaan Tandon said. "Global commodity prices have dropped back since late last year, and we expect further falls over the coming months. Meanwhile, despite the rebound now underway in China, we expect global growth to struggle this year as the U.S. falls into recession." Indonesia's exports grew on the back of soaring commodity prices last year, with shipments reaching a record high of $292 billion. The country is a major supplier of thermal coal, palm oil and nickel steel. STRONG CONSUMPTION Household consumption, which accounts for more than half of Indonesia's GDP, accelerated last year, especially supported by travel-related spending as COVID-19 restrictions eased. Indonesia removed most movement curbs last year after daily cases dropped and vaccination rates rose, driving up household consumption. All remaining measures were lifted at the end of the year. Investment grew 3.87% last year, similar to 2021's growth but is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels, the statistics bureau said. Meanwhile, government spending in 2022 contracted as Jakarta started to ease back from pandemic-era health and social spending. This year's growth would likely be supported by household consumption amid continued improvement in people's mobility, Bank Mandiri economist Faisal Rachman said, predicting growth of 5.04% in 2023. The recent tightening of monetary policy may drag on growth prospects, analysts said, although Indonesia's central bank has signalled that its rate hike cycle was ending as inflation has cooled. Bank Indonesia has raised its policy interest rate by 225 basis points since August. Myrdal Gunarto of Maybank Indonesia predicted that the policy rate will be kept at the current level of 5.75% until the end of 2023 to uphold growth. Jakarta has set a target of 5.3% for economic growth in 2023.

By Rae Wee SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar slid on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it had turned a corner in the fight against inflation, giving markets a boost in confidence that the end of the central bank's rate-hike campaign was near. Investors took a dovish cue from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on Wednesday that "the disinflationary process has started" in the world's largest economy, although he also signalled that interest rates would continue rising and that cuts were not in the offing. The Fed's statement on Wednesday, which came after the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting, where policymakers agreed to raise rates by 25 basis points, marked the central bank's first explicit acknowledgment of slowing inflation. The dollar dived following Powell's remarks. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell to a fresh nine-month low of 100.80 on Wednesday. It was last 0.07% down at 100.88, having ended more than 1% lower on Wednesday. "It was very much a sort of relief ... that there was nothing there to really seriously challenge the market's prevailing view," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) (NAB). "(Powell) said that rates are going to have to be restrictive for some time, but that doesn't dissuade the market from saying some time might be six months, rather than two years." The Aussie surged to an eight-month high of $0.7158 in early Asia trade on Thursday and last bought $0.7150, after rallying 1.2% in the previous session. The kiwi similarly hit a fresh eight-month peak of $0.65365, after jumping more than 1% on Wednesday. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar slid more than 0.5% to a session-low of 128.17. With the Fed out of the way, the stage is set for the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) to announce their interest rate decisions later on Thursday. Expectations are for a 50 bp rise from each. The euro rose to a roughly 10-month peak of $1.1034 on Thursday and was last 0.3% higher at $1.1023, while sterling moved up 0.14% to $1.2392. "The risk is that we get a hawkish 50 from the ECB and a dovish 50 from the Bank of England. That might create some volatility," said NAB's Attrill. Euro zone inflation eased for the third straight month in January, data on Wednesday showed. But any relief for the ECB may be limited, as underlying price growth held steady and concerns have already been raised about the reliability of the figures. "In Europe, the inflation pressure remains very high despite the drop in energy prices," said Tareck Horchani, head of prime brokerage dealing at Maybank Securities. "We should see (the) ECB continue hiking interest rates until at least the end of Q1 2023." In the United States, Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will be the next test of the Fed's fight against inflation, though official statistics on Wednesday showed that job openings had unexpectedly risen in December, pointing to a still-tight labour market. Markets are now expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just under 4.9% by June, compared with earlier expectations of a peak of just below 5%.

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar edged higher against the euro on Thursday after data showed the U.S. economy maintained a strong pace of growth in the fourth quarter, even as momentum appears to have slowed towards the end of the year. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.9% annualised rate last quarter, the Commerce Department said in its advance fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate. The economy grew at a 3.2% pace in the third quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.6% rate. A separate report from the Labor Department showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 186,000 for the week ended Jan. 21. "A somewhat mixed picture painted by the U.S. data," said Stuart Cole, head macro economist at Equiti Capital in London. The data point to an economy that is continuing to show resilience in the face of the rapid monetary tightening so far delivered by the Fed, Cole said. "But a big contributor to this growth story was inventories, a component that is almost certain to weaken as we go through 2023," he said. "Thus, overall, a neutral picture I would say in terms of the impact the data will have on expectations of Fed policy going forward," Cole said. The euro was 0.28% lower at $1.0884, but not far from the nine-month high of $1.09295 touched on Monday. Against the yen, the dollar was up 0.59% at 130.345 yen. Attention now turns to next week's central bank meetings, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Traders broadly expect the Fed to increase rates by 25 basis points (bps) next Wednesday, a step down from a 50 bps increase in December. Meanwhile, the ECB has all but committed to raising its key rate by half a percentage point next week. Sterling was about flat on the day against the U.S. dollar, on pace to log a narrow gain for the week, its third straight weekly rise, even as traders remained concerned about the task facing the Bank of England in controlling inflation without damaging an economy already in recession. The Aussie touched a new 7-month high of $0.71425 on growing expectations that more Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hikes are due after data showed Australian inflation surged to a 33-year high last quarter. The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday, a day after the Bank of Canada raised interest rates as expected in a move that could mark the end of the central bank's aggressive tightening campaign. Meanwhile, bitcoin was little changed on the day at $22,995, continuing to tread water after having jumped by about a third in value since early January, following big losses following the high-profile collapse of the FTX crypto exchange.

By Ankur Banerjee SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian equities rose to a fresh seven-month high on Thursday, with Hong Kong shares playing catch-up to other markets' gains as trade resumed after its three-day Lunar New Holiday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan climbed 0.9% to 557.65 and was set for its fifth straight day of gains. The index has gained 10% so far in January, buoyed by expectations of a strong economic rebound in China and by hopes that most major central banks are nearing an end to hefty rate rises. Trading was thin on Thursday with Australia closed for a holiday and certain parts of Asia, including China, still away for the Lunar New Year. The buoyant mood looked set to continue in Europe, with the Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.58%, German DAX futures 0.58% higher and FTSE futures up 0.30%. Traders betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon tone down its aggressive rate hike policy got a lift after the Bank of Canada on Wednesday raised rates but became the first major central bank to say it would likely hold off on further increases for now. After a series of super-sized rate hikes last year, the U.S. central bank is now largely expected to raise rates by a smaller 25 basis points next week on signs that inflation is cooling. While analysts expect the Fed to eventually pause its interest rate hikes this year, for some the meeting in February is a bit too early for that. "We believe the Fed will make a special effort to avoid suggesting that the end of the tightening process is in sight," said Kevin Cummins (NYSE:CMI), chief economist at NatWest Markets. Cummins said it was likely that the committee would go out of its way to keep the official policy statement free of anything that could be construed as a suggestion that a pause might be under consideration just yet. The spotlight will be on the U.S. GDP data due later on Thursday. The report could mark the last quarter of solid growth before the lagged effects of the Fed's jumbo rate hikes kick in. "The U.S. GDP release today will be of key interest to gauge whether the market expectations shifting in favour of a soft landing rather than a recession can continue to hold," Saxo strategists said in a note to clients. The prospect of a less aggressive pace in monetary tightening has stoked expectations of a so-called soft landing - a scenario in which inflation eases against a backdrop of weakening but still resilient economic growth. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index surged 1.7% in its first day of trade in the Year of the Rabbit, while Japan's Nikkei fell 0.25%. Investor attention will also be on the Bank of England and European Central Bank meetings due next week, with traders looking for clues as to when the central banks are likely to turn dovish. In the currency market, the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was at 101.64, not far off the eight-month low of 101.51 it touched last week. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.22% to 129.32 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2394, down 0.05% on the day. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 2.1 bps to 3.441%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 3 bps to 3.595%. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at -68.7 bps. The inversion of this curve has predicted eight of the last nine recessions, analysts have said. Oil prices were steady after U.S. crude stocks rose less than expected. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.09% to $80.22 per barrel, while Brent was at $86.05, down 0.08% on the day. [O/R] Gold prices touched a nine-month high, with spot gold at $1,945.55 per ounce, after hitting $1,949.09 earlier in the day.

By Arundhati Sarkar (Reuters) - Gold prices slipped on Wednesday from a nine-month peak hit in the previous session as the dollar steadied and investors squared positions ahead of U.S. fourth-quarter economic growth figures. Spot gold was down 0.6% to $1,925.75 per ounce at 1320 GMT, after hitting its highest since late April on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.4% to $1,927.20. The U.S. Commerce Department is expected to unveil its initial advance fourth-quarter GDP estimates on Thursday, which could set the tone for the Federal Reserve's Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting. Gold's losses, after the peak recorded on Tuesday, resulted from a technical correction as investors closed positions in order to lock in profits ahead of the release of the data, said ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista. "The overall sentiment is positive, with the Fed expected to adopt a more benign posture and announce a 25bp rate hike, when it meets next week. If confirmed, the scenario will be negative for the U.S. dollar and treasuries, offering support to gold." Lower interest rates tend to be beneficial for bullion, decreasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. The dollar index, meanwhile, held steady, making gold less appealing for other currency holders. [USD/] Traders expect the Fed to scale back its rate hike pace further after slowing its policy tightening spree to 50 basis points (bps) last month after four straight 75-bp hikes. Fears around possible recession were also offering support to gold, analysts said. U.S. business activity contracted for the seventh straight month in January, though the downturn moderated across both the manufacturing and services sectors for the first time since September. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 0.9% to $23.4537 per ounce and palladium lost 1.1% to $1,723.35. Platinum snapped a three-day winning streak, having shed 1.7% to $1,038.76 on the day.

By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) - Crude oil prices were steady on Tuesday as concerns about a global economic slowdown and expected build in U.S. oil inventories were offset by hopes of a fuel demand recovery from top importer China. Brent crude was up 12 cents, or 0.1%, at $88.31 a barrel by 1450 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $81.70. "The (United States) economy still could roll over and some energy traders are still sceptical on how quickly China's crude demand will bounce back this quarter," OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note. This week traders are watching for more business data as corporate earnings season gathers momentum, offering clues to the health of economies around the globe. On the inventory side, U.S. stocks of crude oil and gasoline were expected to have risen last week while distillate stocks were forecast to fall, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Reports are due from the American Petroleum Institute, at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) on Tuesday, and from the Energy Information Administration, at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT) on Wednesday. Bank JP Morgan raised its forecast for Chinese crude demand but maintained its projection for a 2023 price average of $90 a barrel for Brent crude. "Absent any major geopolitical events, it would be difficult for oil prices to breach $100 in 2023 as there should be more supply than demand this year," it said in an analyst note. Crude oil prices in physical markets have started the year with a rally on increased buying from China after the relaxation of pandemic controls and on trader concern that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply. The dollar, meanwhile, hovered near a nine-month low against the euro and gave back recent gains against the yen as traders continued to gauge the risks of U.S. recession and the path for Federal Reserve policy. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated commodities such as oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Investors have piled back into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate for more than two years as concerns over a global business cycle downturn have eased. Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI)'s flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed on Tuesday, but British private sector economic activity fell at its fastest rate in two years.

By Kevin Buckland TOKYO (Reuters) - The dollar hovered near a nine-month low to the euro and gave back recent gains against the yen on Tuesday, as traders weighed the risks of a U.S. recession and the path for Federal Reserve policy. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the greenback against a basket of six peers, including the euro and yen - slipped 0.12% to 101.89, heading back towards the 7-1/2-month low of 101.51 reached last week. The euro added 0.08% to $1.0880, taking it closer to Monday's peak of $1.0927, the strongest since April. "The U.S. is no longer the cleanest shirt in the global economic laundry," said Ray Attrill, head of foreign-exchange strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY), who expects the dollar index to fall to 100 by end-March and the euro to rise to $1.10. "That's integral to our bearish U.S. dollar view, that the U.S. is not going to be the global growth leader." Money market traders see only two more quarter point rate hikes by the Fed to a peak of around 5% by June, with two quarter point cuts following before year-end. The Fed itself has insisted 75 basis points of more tightening is likely on the way. By contrast, Europe's single currency has been buoyed by comments from European Central Bank officials pointing to further aggressive policy tightening. The latest was ECB President Christine Lagarde, who on Monday reiterated that the central bank will keep raising interest rates quickly to slow inflation, which remains far too high. "President Lagarde has been among the hawks, and so we are comfortable with our call for 50bp increases at the next two meetings," Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) strategist Joseph Capurso wrote in a client note, pointing to the potential for a test of $1.1033 for the euro this week. Elsewhere, the dollar sank 0.41% to 130.11 yen, retreating after two sessions of strong gains. Last week, the dollar fell as low as 127.215 yen, its weakest since May, before a Bank of Japan policy review as investors bet the BOJ would begin to end its stimulus programme. The BOJ, however, left policy unchanged, giving the dollar some respite. Many, though, continue to expect a hawkish shift by the BOJ this year, as policymakers continue to tweak policy in order to extend the life of the yield curve control (YCC) mechanism, which pins short-term rates at -0.1% and keeps 10-year yields in a band around zero. "Clearly, the market regards the YCC policy as well past its use-by date, and it's only a matter of time - and probably months rather than quarters - until the BOJ sounds the death knell on it," said NAB's Attrill, who predicts dollar-yen will decline to 125 by end-March. "The era of yen weakness is rapidly falling behind us." Meanwhile, sterling was last trading at $1.2391, up 0.12% on the day. The Australian dollar rose 0.18% to $0.7041 and the New Zealand dollar advanced 0.27% to $0.6508.

By Emily Chow KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) -Oil futures fell by nearly $1 on Thursday, extending losses from the previous day, as a surprise jump in U.S. crude stocks weighed on the market along with fears of a recession that were heightened by disappointing U.S. retail sales and output data. Brent crude futures were last down 84 cents, or 1%, to $84.14 a barrel at 0710 GMT, after earlier easing to $83.76. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also declined 91 cents, or 1.1%, to $78.57 a barrel. It earlier fell to a low of $78.13. "The deterioration in U.S. economic data darkened the (oil) demand outlook as recession fears mount again. Risk-off sentiment has sent growth-sensitive commodities down," said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets, adding that profit-taking could have played a part also. U.S. December retail sales fell by the most in a year, while manufacturing output recorded its biggest drop in nearly two years, as higher borrowing costs hurt demand for goods. Still, Federal Reserve officials said interest rates needed to rise beyond 5% even as inflation shows signs of having peaked and economic activity is slowing. "This raised the spectre of a recession, with risk appetite suffering as a consequence," ANZ Research analysts said in a client note. Adding to the pall, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed U.S. crude oil inventories rose by about 7.6 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 13, according to market sources. The mean average forecast from a Reuters' poll of nine analysts had been for a fall of about 600,000 barrels. The big build marked the second consecutive week of large inventory increases. However, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by about 1.8 million barrels against analysts' expectations for a 120,000-barrel increase. The API report was delayed by a day due to Monday's Martin Luther King Day public holiday in the United States. The government's Energy Information Administration will release its weekly inventory report on Thursday. With aggressive rate hikes still on the cards, the U.S. dollar climbed, weighing on oil demand as a stronger greenback makes the commodity more expensive for those holding other currencies.

By Rae Wee and Alun John SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) - The dollar started the week on the back foot, hitting a seven-month low against a basket of major peers in Asian trade before steadying, with the yen in particular focus due to traders' bets the Bank of Japan will tweak its yield control policy further. The euro hit a fresh nine-month top of $1.0874 in early trade before retreating to last stand 0.16% lower at $1.0816, while the Australian dollar breached the key $0.7000 level for the first time since August, before dipping back to $0.6962. Thanks also to early strength from sterling and the Japanese yen, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, slumped to a seven-month trough of 101.77, extending its selloff from last week after data showed that U.S consumer prices fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December. With decades-high inflation in the world's largest economy showing signs of cooling, investors are now growing increasingly confident that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle, and that rates will not go as high as previously feared. The Fed's aggressive rate increases were a main driver of the dollar index's 8% surge last year, before signs that inflation was peaking brought it back down. The dollar has largely traded steady against most currencies since last week's data. "It's too soon to imagine a significant dollar downtrend, we've had some dollar repricing certainly, but for broad-based dollar weakness you'll need to really see Fed expectations roll over materially and the Fed potentially cutting rates at some point, and we are not at this point," said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier. Markets are now pricing in a 91% chance of a 25-basis-point increase when the Fed announces its policy decision in February, with a 9% chance of a 50-bp hike. The dollar steadied in European trading, regaining ground against the pound which was last down 0.3% at $1.2195. MARKETS CHALLENGE BOJ A particular focus for currency markets this week is the Japanese yen, due to speculation that the Bank of Japan will make further tweaks to, or fully abandon, its yield control policy at a meeting scheduled to conclude Wednesday. The dollar slipped to a more than seven-month low on the yen in early trading, before recovering and was last at 128.4 yen, up 0.4%. "I think the whole world will be focused on Wednesday ... and probably the week in G10 (currencies) will be defined by what happens to the yen and yen crosses, out of that," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY) (NAB). "I don't think (the BOJ) has the luxury of time to say that they're going to assess and wait until Q2 or Kuroda to see out his term without making any further changes." BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will step down in April. Investors have been pressing for the BOJ to shift away from its ultra-easy monetary policy, which caused the yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bonds to breach the central bank's new ceiling for two sessions. U.S. markets are closed on Monday for a holiday, making for thin trading.

By Sonali Paul and Mohi Narayan (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Friday, set to gain more than 6% for the week, on solid signs of demand growth in top oil importer China and expectations of less aggressive interest rate rises in the United States. Brent crude futures rose by 5 cents to $84.08 a barrel by 0746 GMT, off a session low of $83.50. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 13 cents to $78.52 a barrel after falling to $77.97 earlier in the session. Brent has jumped 6.7% so far this week and WTI is up 6.2%, recouping most of last week's losses. Analysts said recent Chinese crude purchases and a pick-up in road traffic fuelled confidence in a demand recovery in the world's second-largest economy following the reopening of its borders and easing of COVID-19 curbs after protests last year. "Given the focus on energy security, we anticipate that Chinese imports will continue to pick up, particularly as refinery runs ramp and stockpiling crude remains a strategic priority," RBC commodity strategist Michael Tran told clients in a note. In another encouraging sign, ANZ analysts said a congestion index covering the 15 Chinese cities with the largest number of vehicle registrations had risen 31% from a week earlier. Oil prices have also been buoyed by a slide in the dollar to a nearly nine-month low, after data showed U.S. inflation fell for the first time in 2-1/2 years, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of rate hikes. A weaker greenback tends to boost demand for oil, as it makes the commodity cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. However, some of the week's gains are likely to fizzle out in Asian trade, said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda (NASDAQ:VNDA) Insights. "Crude is in for a correction, even if a modest one .... The past two sessions were almost entirely driven by renewed Fed pivot hopes, which, going by the experience of the past quarter, tend to be a short-lived phenomenon," Hari said.

$NINE Jan 20, 15 Call

By Shubham Batra and Amruta Khandekar (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes rose on Wednesday led by gains in rate-sensitive growth stocks as the focus shifts to a key inflation reading due later this week, which would provide more clues on the Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory. Nearly all major S&P sectoral indexes were trading in the green, with Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc up 4.0% and 3.8% respectively, and among top boosts to the benchmark S&P 500 index. Gains in both the stocks pushed up the consumer discretionary sector nearly 2%. Only healthcare stocks were an outlier, down marginally. Markets are facing renewed optimism in 2023 on hopes that a slowdown in the U.S. economy could pave the way for a less hawkish stance from the U.S. central bank. The highly awaited inflation report from the Labor Department on Thursday is expected to show U.S. consumer prices likely grew 6.5% year-on-year in December, from 7.1% a month ago, while core inflation grew 5.7% in December, from 6% in November. While further evidence of an easing in price pressures could bolster hopes of the Fed pausing its rate hiking cycle soon, recent comments by some policymakers have supported the view that the Fed needs to remain aggressive in raising interest rates to fight inflation. "(Investors) feel inflation is being tamed and that there's more risk of not being in the market than there is of being in the market," said Christopher Grisanti, chief equity strategist at MAI Capital Management in Cleveland. "If there's good inflation numbers, February may be the last hiking, or they (the Fed) may even pause." Money market participants see a 77% chance the Fed will raise the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% in February, and see rates peaking at 4.92% by June. Wall Street's main indexes rallied on Tuesday as Fed Chair Jerome Powell refrained from commenting on the outlook for interest rates ahead of the inflation data, but said the Fed's independence was essential for it to battle inflation. This week marks the start of the earnings season for S&P 500 companies, with Wall Street's biggest banks expected to report lower quarterly profits amid risks of a recession due to monetary policy tightening. At 10:05 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 100.21 points, or 0.30%, at 33,804.31, the S&P 500 was up 19.72 points, or 0.50%, at 3,938.97, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 69.58 points, or 0.65%, at 10,812.21. Home goods retailer Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (NASDAQ:BBBY) jumped 31.2%, after logging gains in the previous session despite bleak quarterly results as retail investors speculated it could be a potential acquisition target and as short-sellers closed out bets. Shares of airlines such as American Airlines (NASDAQ:AAL) Group Inc and Spirit Airlines (NYSE:SAVE) Inc reversed premarket losses to rise between 0.8% and 2.5%, as U.S. flights were slowly beginning to resume departures and a ground stop was lifted after the Federal Aviation Administration scrambled to fix a system outage overnight. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners for a 3.99-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.24-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded nine new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 11 new lows.

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By Pavel Polityuk and Jonathan Landay KYIV/MYKOLAIV, Ukraine (Reuters) -The world must respond firmly to any Russian attempts to disrupt Ukraine's grain export corridor, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said, as more ships were loading despite Moscow suspending its participation in a U.N.-brokered deal. One of the global consequences of Russia's war on its neighbour has been food shortages and a cost of living crisis in many countries, and a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey on July 22 had provided safe passage for vessels carrying grain and other fertiliser exports. Russia suspended its involvement in accord over the weekend, saying it could not guarantee safety for civilian ships because of an attack on its Black Sea fleet. In a late Tuesday night video address, Zelenskiy said ships were still moving out of Ukrainian ports with cargoes thanks to the work of Turkey and the United Nations. "But a reliable and long-term defence is needed for the grain corridor," Zelenskiy said. "Russia must clearly be made aware that it will receive a tough response from the world to any steps to disrupt our food exports," Zelenskiy said. "At issue here clearly are the lives of tens of millions of people." The grains deal aimed to help avert famine in poorer countries by injecting more wheat, sunflower oil and fertilizer into world markets and to ease a dramatic rise in prices. It targeted the pre-war level of 5 million metric tonnes exported from Ukraine each month. The U.N. coordinator for grain and fertiliser exports under the accord said on Twitter on Tuesday that he expects loaded ships to leave Ukrainian ports on Thursday. Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said on Twitter that eight vessels were expected to pass through the corridor on Thursday. Having spoken to his Russian counterpart twice in as many days, Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar hoped the deal would continue, adding that he expected a response from Russia "today and tomorrow". POWER CUTS Russia fired missiles at Ukrainian cities including the capital Kyiv in what President Vladimir Putin called retaliation for an attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet over the weekend. Ukraine said it shot most of those missiles down, but some had hit power stations, knocking out electricity and water supplies. Nine regions were experiencing power cuts. "We will do everything we can to provide power and heat for the coming winter," Zelenskiy said. "But we must understand that Russia will do everything it can to destroy normal life." Authorities in Kyiv were preparing more than 1,000 heating points throughout the city in case its district heating system is disabled, Mayor Vitali Klitschko said. The United States denounced the attacks, saying about 100 missiles had been fired on Monday and Tuesday targeting water and energy supplies. "With temperatures dropping, these Russian attacks aimed at exacerbating human suffering are particularly heinous," State Department spokesperson Ned Price told reporters at a daily briefing. Russia denies targeting civilians. Kyiv came under further attack overnight, authorities said. Zelenskiy's chief of staff Andriy Yermak said Ukrainian soldiers shot down 12 out of 13 Iranian drones. "We are now actively conducting a dialogue regarding the supply of modern air defense systems, we are working on this every day," he said on the Telegram messaging app. KHERSON EVACUATIONS Russia told civilians on Tuesday to leave an area along the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in the Ukrainian province of Kherson, a major extension of an evacuation order that Kyiv says amounts to the forced depopulation of occupied territory. Russia had previously ordered civilians out of a pocket it controls on the west bank of the river, where Ukrainian forces have been advancing for weeks with the aim of capturing the city of Kherson, the first city that Russian forces took control over after invading Ukraine on Feb. 24. Russian-installed officials said on Tuesday they were extending that order to a 15-km (9-mile) buffer zone along the east bank too. Ukraine says the evacuations include forced deportations from occupied territory, a war crime. The mouth of the Dnipro has become one of the most consequential frontlines in the war. Seven towns on the east bank would be evacuated, comprising the main populated settlements along that stretch of the river, Vladimir Saldo, Russian-installed head of occupied Kherson province, said in a video message. Russian-installed authorities in the Kherson region also said an obligatory evacuation of Kakhovka district, close to the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric station, was to begin on Nov. 6. Moscow has accused Kyiv of planning to use a so-called "dirty bomb" to spread radiation, or to blow up a dam to flood towns and villages in Kherson province. Kyiv says accusations it would use such tactics on its own territory are absurd, but that Russia might be planning such actions itself to blame Ukraine. In the city of Bakhmut, a target of Russia's armed forces in their slow advance through the eastern Donetsk region, some residents were refusing to leave as fighting intensified. "Only the strongest stayed," said Lyubov Kovalenko, a 65-year-old retiree. "Let’s put it this way, the poor ones. Everyone is wearing whatever clothing we have left." Rodion Miroshnik, "ambassador" of the neighbouring Russian-occupied region of Luhansk, said Russian troops and their allies had repelled Ukrainian attacks on the towns of Kreminna and Bilohorivka. Moscow describes its actions in Ukraine as a "special military operations to demilitarise and "denazify" its neighbour. Ukraine and Western nations have dismissed this as a baseless pretext for invasion.

Summary Cano Health currently presents an interesting investment opportunity with a potential short-term 58% upside. Recently, rumors appeared that Cano Health has received acquisition interest, with healthcare industry giants CVS Health, Humana and UnitedHealth among the rumored buyers. Given ongoing pressure from two prominent activists and industry consolidation trends, I expect a company sale to be announced shortly. Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Special Situation Investing. Learn More » Health visitor and a senior woman during nursing home visit A Potential company sale might be brewing up behind the scenes. Cano Health (NYSE:CANO) owns and operates senior primary care health centers in nine US states, with a primary focus on Florida. Recently, Bloomberg, Reuters and WSJ reported that the company has received acquisition interests, with health industry giants Humana (HUM), UnitedHealth (UNH) and CVS Health (CVS) mentioned as the front-runners to buyout CANO. Acquisition rumors follow activism from several of CANO's shareholders. In March, Daniel Loeb's Third Point (2.2% of voting power) started to push the company towards strategic alternatives, arguing that CANO should address the value gap (arising from the company going public through a SPAC) by initiating a company sale. Then, in August, Owl Creek Asset Management (owns 1%) delivered a letter, also considering the company undervalued versus peers and industry transactions. As it stands, it seems that the management/insiders (who own 55%) have been under pressure from two prominent activists to sell the company. Not surprisingly, in August, CANO's management stated that the company is open to all strategic alternatives and has hired financial advisors. Reportedly, the second round of discussions is currently ongoing, with the deal possibly finalized in the upcoming weeks. Reports do not mention the acquisition price, however, peer/transaction multiples (also mentioned by the activist Owl Creek) suggest $14/share might be a reasonable price tag - this would imply a 58% upside from current levels. Buyout rumors come amid broader healthcare industry consolidation trends as large healthcare insurers are scooping up healthcare providers in an effort to combine insurance and healthcare provider activities. The industry is currently in a shift towards value based care - a model where providers are paid based on patient health outcomes (as opposed to the traditional fee-for-service model where patients pay for each service rather than outcome). Naturally, the value-based care model closely aligns the interests of both health insurance firms and healthcare providers. Numerous industry executives, including Humana's Medicare President, have noted that value-based model has benefits for providers/insurers, including noticeably higher contribution margins, thus pushing up incentives for consolidation. Not surprisingly, these dynamics have spurred a number of acquisitions of healthcare providers by major health insurers. CVS is currently buying health care platform provider Signify Health (Sep'22), UNH is scooping up home care provider LHC Group (announced in Mar'22) and HUM has already acquired home healthcare provider Kindred at Home (Aug'21). The industry has also seen increasing M&A activity from non-insurers entering the space, including Amazon (AMZN) acquiring primary care company One Medical (announced in Jul'22, by the way CVS was one of the bidders there as well) and Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) purchasing a majority stake in primary care provider VillageMD (Oct'21). These dynamics and the fact that CANO might be an attractive target have also been recently reiterated by CANO's CEO: I expect continued consolidation and acceleration in the paradigm shift of value-based care. And what this means for us is yet another validation of how attractive our asset is and the industry as a whole. A Potential acquisition would make strategic sense for either of the rumored buyers HUM, UNH or CVS given CANO's extensive presence in Florida's primary care market. CANO is reportedly the largest independent value-based primary care provider to Medicare/Medicaid patients in the state. Meanwhile, three potential suitors currently rank as the three largest primary care insurers in the Florida. Humana and Cano have seemingly deep ties - HUM has been invested in Cano Health prior to CANO's IPO and still owns an undisclosed stake. Currently, CANO is HUM's biggest independent primary care provider in Florida. Interestingly, as part of their earlier agreement, HUM has a right of first refusal, meaning that HUM can match any acquisition offer made for CANO. Notably, HUM has significantly expanded its investment in primary senior care in the last five years, recently stating that the TAM is very large at $700bn. As part of its joint venture with PE firm Welsh Carson, Humana now aims to open 100 new CenterWell senior primary care clinics in the next three years. From the CEO's remarks during Q2'22 earnings call: We do see some great opportunity today, both CenterWell primary care and the home are agnostic and continue to see great growth, serving both other payers and other parts of the Medicare system. And at the same time, we're also seeing opportunity within our primary - within our pharmacy area to offer some agnostic opportunities there. So the ability for it to integrate and also to expand beyond the Medicare side of the business is really at the heart of what you see us more formally creating the CenterWell service side, while on the insurance side, continuing to leverage the efficiencies across the various different insurance platforms. Meanwhile, CVS's management, in addition to the recent acquisition of Signify Health, has recently stated that their priority is the same - to expand into the primary care segment: From Morgan Stanley Healthcare Conf: Well I think we are urging, obviously - we're very urging, I just ask our teams and I think if you think about our strategy, really we've been very clear that we want to extend into care delivery and we're starting with Signify. We can't always determine the order. Obviously primary care is something we believe we need to advance because we really want to enable consumers to have a differentiate experience and improve health outcomes. So we're playing our game. From the CVS Q2'22 earnings call: As you would expect, we are being very disciplined both strategically and financially, as we pursue kind of our M&A strategy. We can't be in the primary care without M&A. We've been very clear about that. Valuation Chart Comp Filings At current price levels, CANO seems undervalued on a TTM/2022E revenue basis relative to larger peers OSH (also owns and operates primary care centers) and AGL (runs primary care physician networks so not as comparable). Moreover, recently announced ONEM and SGFY acquisitions were done at noticeably higher multiples. Activist Owl Creek notes the following reasons for why CANO might be trading at a discount to peers/industry transactions: Unfortunately, Cano has consistently traded at a discount to its peers due to its SPAC heritage, its hybrid model (owned and operated medical centers along with affiliates), and heavy concentration in the South Florida market. One could argue for some discount due to one or more of these factors, but the valuation discrepancy between Cano and peers is highly punitive. Another activist Third Point also agrees that the undervaluation is explained by both SPAC heritage and the company's shareholder base (given dual class structure and high insider ownership): However given recent developments at the Issuer and taking into account the market's largely unfavorable view of companies taken public through special purpose acquisition vehicles, the Reporting Persons believe the Board of Directors should immediately engage financial and legal advisors to commence a review of strategic alternatives. […] The Reporting Persons believe this strategic review should focus on a sale of the Issuer, and that a properly run sales process is likely to result in offers representing a substantial premium to the Issuer's trading price. The Reporting Persons believe that the Issuer is unlikely to achieve such valuation on a stand-alone basis, in part due to structural issues with its shareholder base. The activist Owl Creek has stated that CANO has been undervalued by the market despite having higher 2022E revenues than both OSH/AGL and being on track to exceed 2022 membership/revenue/EBITDA guidance. Using a 3x revenue multiple based on peers OSH/AGL and Amazon's acquisition of ONEM, Owl Creek arrives at an acquisition price tag of $14/share. The markets have moved down a bit since the letter was written, so a 3x multiple would now translate to a $13/share price. More background on CANO Historical financials are provided below: Table Company Filings Financially, since going public in 2020, CANO has managed to record high revenue growth - 93% in 2021. Notably, the growth has to a large degree been driven by acquisitions, including purchase of University Health Care and Doctor's Medical Center for a total of $900m (announced in Jun'21 and Jul'21). This has allowed the company to significantly increase its patient base as number of memberships has expanded from 156k to 282k over the last year. That said, the business is yet to turn profitable and is still burning cash - $135m in 2021 operating losses. From a liquidity perspective, the company is quite highly levered with $878m in net debt (compared to $4.2bn market cap). Given CANO's business model, the company needs extensive capital to accelerate further growth. At current share price levels, any equity raise would seem highly dilutive given that even after the buyout rumors the stock trades below pre-2022 levels of $9-$16/share. CANO's shares are rather tightly held with 55% of the voting power (Class A + Class B shares) held by the management + insiders. CANO went public in 2020 through a SPAC backed by Starwood Capital CEO Barry Sternlicht who now holds 9% voting power. Another 33% of total shares are owned by a PE firm InTandem Capital Partners which has backed the company since 2016. Both Sternlicht and InTandem's managing partner Elliot Cooperstone currently sit on CANO's board. Interestingly, Cooperstone was previously the CEO of Prodigy Health Group which was acquired by Aetna, a subsidiary of CVS Health. Another 17% are held by six institutional investors, including FMR (7%), BlackRock (3%) and Millennium Asset Management (2%), among others. Risks According to the activist Owl Creek, last year CVS stated that the company had well over $10bn to deploy towards strategic initiatives related to value-based care. With the SGFY acquisition, the company will spend around $7bn, potentially implying that the management might not be willing to pursue another large acquisition. This risk, however, seems limited given CVS's overall large gross cash position ($15bn in cash + investments) and the fact that SGFY captures a slightly different market niche than CANO - it is a healthcare platform which does not own and operate health centers. Management/insiders not agreeing to sell their stake. That said, considering prominent activist pressure, current market turbulence and the fact that the company is yet to inflect towards profitability, an offer at $14/share - a share price close to 2021 highs - could seal the deal. Conclusion CANO presents a very interesting investment opportunity with a short potential timeline. I believe that prominent activist involvement and industry consolidation dynamics point to a company sale brewing up behind the scenes. Importantly, risk/reward seems to be highly favorable here, suggesting that investors might consider CANO as a long position in their portfolios.

$nine non stop

**pkedrosky:** This is a remarkable story in a top sports science journal: Former British Journal of Sports Medicine editor's articles are subject to nine retractions and 38 "expressions of concern" https://t.co/Pb070QArpX https://twitter.com/pkedrosky/status/1579844071580790785

**IanShepherdson:** Initial jobless claims have now undershot the consensus forecast for *nine* straight weeks. When economists get an idea stuck in their heads, they don't give it up easily; evidence be damned. https://twitter.com/IanShepherdson/status/1572944976660537346

*DIRECTORS AT TWO REGIONAL FEDS SOUGHT 100 BP JULY RATE HIKE *FED SAYS NINE REGIONAL FEDS SOUGHT 75 BPS DISCOUNT RATE RISE

https://cointelegraph.com/news/ethereum-classic-soars-100-in-nine-days-outperforming-eth-as-the-merge-approaches

@dros, Musk had two more kids in Nov with Shivon Zilis, "one of his top executives," currently the director of operations and special projects for Neuralink. He now has nine "known" children. This gives new meaning to idea that Musk never sleeps.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/terra-s-luna2-skyrockets-70-in-nine-days-despite-persistent-sell-off-risks

Tiger Woods turned down nine-digit offer from LIV Golf league

By Kanupriya Kapoor (Reuters) - Asia stocks rose on Wednesday even as central banks piled into aggressive rate hikes to battle soaring inflation and left investors worried about slower global growth. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.72%, with Australian shares up 0.72%, Seoul adding 0.84% and Taiwan advancing 1.07%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng and China's main indexes also traded higher, while Japan's Nikkei share average slipped 0.04%. European markets also looked set for a firmer open, with pan-European futures up 0.93% and FTSE 100 futures rising 0.88%. The U.S. dollar index =USD - which measures the currency against six major rivals - rebounded 0.16% to 101.92, a level not seen since April 26. Meanwhile the kiwi hit a three-week high of $0.65 after the New Zealand central bank raised rates by an aggressive 50 basis points and signalled more to come. Overnight, Wall Street reeled from weak housing and manufacturing data, while U.S. central bankers backed two more big interest rate hikes as early as June and July to fight 40-year-high inflation. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.35% and the S&P 500 lost 0.81%.[.N] New home sales in the U.S. fell 16.6% month-on-month in April, the largest decline in nine years, sending U.S. Treasuries yields down to one-month lows as investors turned once again to safety. The benchmark 10-year note was at 2.766% and the 2-year yield was at 2.522%. But Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warned headlong rate hikes could create "significant economic dislocation" and was among a handful of Fed policymakers who favour reducing the pace of rate hikes later in the year if inflation cools. Investors in Asia remain similarly nervous about growth being impacted by the effects of persistent Chinese COVID-19 lockdowns, which threaten to undermine recent stimulus measures in the world's second-largest economy. "In Asia, investor debate centers on whether or not China's easing policies are sufficient to offset downward pressures,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a note. "Fiscal multipliers will be minimal in an economy where economic activity have slowed sharply. Moving beyond mobility restrictions in short order is a pre-condition, but not a guarantee, for an Asia-led economic recovery." Gold prices dipped 0.19% to $1,862.27 per ounce, having risen to their highest in two weeks on Tuesday, as the greenback gained. Oil prices climbed more than 1% on the prospect of tight supplies. U.S. crude futures rose to $111.05 a barrel, and Brent rose to $114.86.

By David Shepardson WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Investigators looking into the crash of a China Eastern Airlines (NYSE:CEA) jet are examining whether it was due to intentional action on the flight deck, with no evidence found of a technical malfunction, two people briefed on the matter said. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that flight data from one of the Boeing (NYSE:BA) 737-800's black boxes indicated that someone in the cockpit intentionally crashed the plane, citing people familiar with the preliminary assessment of U.S. officials. Boeing Co , the maker of the jet, and the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) declined to comment and referred questions to Chinese regulators. The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), which is leading the investigation, did not respond immediately to a request for comment. The Boeing 737-800, en route from Kunming to Guangzhou, crashed on March 21 in the mountains of the Guangxi region, after a sudden plunge from cruising altitude, killing all 123 passengers and nine crew members aboard. It was mainland China's deadliest aviation disaster in 28 years. The pilots did not respond to repeated calls from air traffic controllers and nearby planes during the rapid descent, authorities have said. One source told Reuters investigators were looking at whether the crash was a "voluntary" act. Screenshots of the Wall Street Journal story appeared to be censored both on China's Weibo (NASDAQ:WB) social media platform and the Wechat messaging app on Wednesday. The hashtag topics "China Eastern" and "China Eastern black boxes" are banned on Weibo, which cited a breach of laws, and users are unable to share posts on the incident in group chats on Wechat. The CAAC said on April 11 in response to rumors on the internet of a deliberate crash that the speculation had "gravely misled the public" and "interfered with the accident investigation work". A woman who asked to be identified only by her surname, Wen, who lost her husband in the crash, told Reuters on Wednesday that she had not seen the Wall Street Journal report but hoped the results of the investigation would be released soon. Wen said she and other victims' family members had signed an agreement with China Eastern that included a point about compensation, but she declined to say how much had been offered. China Eastern did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Wall Street Journal said the airline had said in a statement that no evidence had emerged that could determine whether there were any problems with the aircraft. NO TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS The 737-800 is a widely flown predecessor to Boeing's 737 MAX but does not have the systems that have been linked to fatal 737-MAX crashes in 2018 and 2019, which led to a lengthy grounding of the MAX. China Eastern grounded its entire fleet of 737-800 planes after the crash but resumed flights in mid-April, a decision widely seen at the time as ruling out any immediate new safety concerns over Boeing's most widely used model. In a summary of an unpublished preliminary crash report last month, Chinese investigators did not point to any technical recommendations for the 737-800, which has been in service since 1997 with a strong safety record, according to experts. NTSB Chair Jennifer Homendy said in a May 10 Reuters interview that board investigators and Boeing had traveled to China to assist the Chinese investigation. She noted that the investigation had not found any safety issues that would require any urgent action. Homendy said if the board had any safety concerns it would "issue urgent safety recommendations." The NTSB assisted Chinese investigators with the review of black boxes at its U.S. lab in Washington at China's request, despite political tensions between the countries. CAAC said the NTSB confirmed that it did not release information about the China Eastern crash to media, the state-owned Global Times reported. Shares of Boeing closed up 6.5%. A final report into the causes could take two years or more to compile, Chinese officials have said. Analysts say most crashes are caused by a cocktail of human and technical factors. Deliberate crashes are exceptionally rare globally. Experts noted the latest hypothesis left open whether the action stemmed from one pilot acting alone or the result of a struggle or intrusion but sources stressed nothing has been confirmed. The cockpit voice recorder was damaged during the crash and it is unclear whether investigators have been able to retrieve any information from it. In March 2015, a Germanwings co-pilot deliberately flew an Airbus A320 into a French mountainside, killing all 150 on board. French investigators found the 27-year-old was suffering from a suspected "psychotic depressive episode," concealed from his employer. They later called for better mental health guidelines and stronger peer support groups for pilots.

9 Out of 10 Central Banks Exploring Digital Currency, BIS Says https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/05/06/nine-out-of-ten-central-banks-exploring-digital-currency-bis-says/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

Nine Out of Ten Central Banks Exploring Digital Currency, BIS Says https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/05/06/nine-out-of-ten-central-banks-exploring-digital-currency-bis-says/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

By Alun John HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares were set for their best day in six weeks on Friday led by Chinese tech stocks after reports of a possible resolution to the Sino-U.S. audit dispute, giving investors much needed respite from worries of a global economic slowdown. Still, a key regional share index was set for its worst month in nine as the Ukraine war and expectations for aggressive U.S. rate hikes in coming months have added to the anxieties, propelling the safe-haven dollar to near 20-year peaks. Hong Kong listed tech stocks rose as much as 10% on Friday as trading resumed after the lunchtime pause. Ecommerce players JD (NASDAQ:JD).com and Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) each rose as much as 15% and Meituan gained around 12%. All three are listed in both the U.S. and Hong Kong bourses. They and their peers' stock prices had been affected by U.S. moves to delist Chinese companies because Beijing restricted the U.S. audit regulator's access to their audit documents. Reports on Friday that a resolution to the dispute was in sight had driven the sharp gains, said Steven Leung executive director of institutional sales at brokerage UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. The gains from Chinese index heavyweights sent MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan 1.9% higher, which would be its best day since March 17. Also helping was the Politburo, the top decision-making body of China's Communist Party, saying China will step up policy support to stabilise the economy, and a strong Wall Street after robust earnings from Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) parent Meta Platforms had driven the Nasdaq 3% higher overnight. [.N] However, Nasdaq futures fell around 0.7% in Asia trade, pressured by disappointing earnings from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) after market close. European futures rose 1.29% and FTSE futures advanced 0.86%. LONGER TERM FEARS Friday's gains marked a recovery to the brutal sell-offs in globally stocks in recent weeks. The Asian regional benchmark is heading for a 5.6%% drop for the month, its worst month since July 2021. Until Friday's gains, it was set for its worst month in two years. "There are four near term catalysts driving the market at the moment: U.S. earnings which we are about half way through, rising U.S. Treasury yields and lots of hawkish speak from the Fed, the war in Ukraine, and China policy," said Fook-Hien Yap, senior investment strategist at Standard Chartered (OTC:SCBFF) Wealth Management. Yap believes Asian shares have room to rise further as much of the bad news was already priced in, though a strong rally in risk assets like equities would need U.S. yields to steady. The benchmark 10 year yield finished the U.S. session at 2.8205%, having reached as high as 2.981% on April 20. The two year yield was at 2.6132%. [US/] They didn't trade in Asia on Friday due to the holiday in Tokyo. This week has also been a volatile one for currencies. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major peers fell 0.38% to 103.27 on Friday due to the improved risk sentiment, but was still not far from Thursday's high of 103.93 - its highest level since late 2022. The index's current monthly gain of 5% would be its best since 2015. On top of the safety-bid for the dollar, the rally has also been fed by market expectations for 150 basis points of rate hikes in just three Federal Reserve meetings. The aggressive Fed tightening path, mainly to curtail sky high inflation, far out paces other global central banks. The dollar's recent gains have been most significant against the yen, and it swept past the key psychological 130 yen level on Thursday, setting a fresh 20 year high. [FRX/] Weakness in China's yuan gathered pace on Friday, putting the currency on track for its biggest monthly drop since 1994, pressured by broad dollar strength and lockdowns in many major cities to curb the spread of COVID-19. Oil prices remained choppy as traders grappled with the supply issues stemming from the war in Ukraine as well as the demand impact of lockdowns in China. Brent crude rose 0.9% on Friday to 108.56 per barrel, U.S. crude rose 0.65% to $106.02. [O/R] Spot gold rose 0.65% to $1906.7 an ounce. [GOL/]

By Peter Nurse Investing.com - European stock markets are expected to open marginally higher Tuesday ahead of the start of another round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Turkey this week. At 2 AM ET (0600 GMT), the DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.4% higher, CAC 40 futures in France climbed 1.2% and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. rose 0.6%. Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are set later Tuesday to meet in Turkey for face-to-face talks, the first direct talks between the two sides in more than two weeks. However, despite the stock market gains, there appears little hope of a breakthrough, with Kyiv seeking a ceasefire without compromising on territory or sovereignty while Russia continues to make territorial demands, including Crimea, which Moscow seized and annexed in 2014, and some eastern territories. Ahead of the talks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday urged Western nations to toughen sanctions quickly against Russia, including an oil embargo, something a number of European countries have been reluctant to impose given their reliance on Russian energy supplies. U.S. and German government officials are set to meet later this week with energy industry executives to discuss ways to boost alternative supplies for Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy which has been reliant on Russian oil and gas. Looking at the European economic data slate, the GfK German consumer climate index fell to -15.5 for April, down from a revised -8.5 the previous month, as the war in Ukraine and rising commodity prices weigh on sentiment. Later in the session, the Bank of England is set to publish its latest Quarterly Bulletin, which will be studied carefully as the U.K. central bank continues to increase interest rates. In corporate news, Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY) will be in the spotlight after the French healthcare group raised its peak sales target for eczema-treatment product Dupixent to more than 13 billion euros ($14.3 billion). Oil prices retreated Tuesday, continuing the previous session’s weakness on fears that a surge in Covid-19 cases in China will hit demand from the world’s top crude importer and ahead of the Ukraine/Russia peace talks. The city of Shanghai, China’s financial hub, remains under a two-stage, nine-day lockdown to curb rising numbers of Covid cases. Sanctions imposed on Russia after it invaded Ukraine have disrupted oil supplies from the world’s second largest crude exporter, sending prices to 14-year highs earlier this month. By 2 AM ET, U.S. crude futures traded 0.6% lower at $105.36 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell 0.5% to $108.98. Both benchmark contracts lost around 7% on Monday. Additionally, gold futures fell 0.9% to $1,922.85/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.1% higher at 1.0987.

Bottomed out? MINA rises 75% nine days after hitting its worst level to date https://cointelegraph.com/news/bottomed-out-mina-rises-75-nine-days-after-hitting-its-worst-level-to-date

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