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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Monday, buoyed by optimism over Chinese demand, continued production curbs by major producers and Russia's plans to rein in supply. Brent crude was up $1.08, or 1.3%, to $84.08 a barrel at 1445 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for March, which expires on Tuesday, was up 96 cents, or 1.3%, at $77.30. The benchmarks settled $2 down on Friday for a decline of about 4% over the week after the United States reported higher crude and gasoline inventories. The OPEC+ producer group comprising the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia agreed in October to cut oil production targets by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of 2023. Separately, Russia plans to cut oil production by 500,000 bpd, equating to about 5% of its output, in March after the West imposed price caps on Russian oil and oil products. Analysts, meanwhile, expect China's oil imports to hit a record high in 2023 to meet increased demand for transportation fuel and as new refineries come on stream. "The optimism around China today may be responsible for the gains we're seeing in crude, which would make a lot of sense given it's the world's largest importer and expected to recover strongly from the COVID transition," said Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA in London. China and India have become major buyers of Russian crude since the European Union embargo. At the same time, future oil supply shortages are likely to drive prices towards $100 a barrel by the end of the year, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analysts said in a Feb. 19 note. Prices will move higher "as the market pivots back to deficit with underinvestment, shale constraints and OPEC discipline ensuring supply does not meet demand", they wrote.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped on Monday as investors focused on short-term demand concerns ahead of key U.S. inflation data. Brent crude futures were down 76 cents, or 0.8%, to $85.63 a barrel at 1446 GMT after a 2.2% gain on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 69 cents, or 0.8%, at $79.03 after a 2.1% gain in the previous session. "Crude prices are softening as energy traders anticipate a potentially weakening crude demand outlook as a pivotal inflation report could force the Fed to tighten policy much more aggressively," said Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA, referring to U.S. consumer price data due on Feb. 14. "This week could deliver a make or break moment in how bad a recession Wall Street prices in." The U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to rein in inflation, leading to concerns the move would slow economic activity and demand for oil. "It is difficult to overstate the importance of this single data point, as traders and the Fed look for confirmation of the gradual downward trend of the past few months," said Matthew Ryan, head of market strategy at financial services firm Ebury. Additionally, supply concerns were relieved somewhat as a cargo of Azeri crude set sail from Turkey's Ceyhan port on Monday, the first since a devastating earthquake in the region on Feb. 6. Ceyhan is the storage and loading point for pipelines that carry oil from Azerbaijan and Iraq. Oil prices had risen on Friday after Russia, the world's third-largest oil producer, said it would cut crude production in March by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of output, in retaliation against Western curbs imposed on its exports in response to the Ukraine conflict. Both the Brent and WTI contracts rose more than 8% last week, buoyed by optimism over demand recovery in China after COVID curbs were scrapped in December.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) - Crude oil prices were steady on Tuesday as concerns about a global economic slowdown and expected build in U.S. oil inventories were offset by hopes of a fuel demand recovery from top importer China. Brent crude was up 12 cents, or 0.1%, at $88.31 a barrel by 1450 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 8 cents, or 0.1%, to $81.70. "The (United States) economy still could roll over and some energy traders are still sceptical on how quickly China's crude demand will bounce back this quarter," OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note. This week traders are watching for more business data as corporate earnings season gathers momentum, offering clues to the health of economies around the globe. On the inventory side, U.S. stocks of crude oil and gasoline were expected to have risen last week while distillate stocks were forecast to fall, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Reports are due from the American Petroleum Institute, at 4:30 p.m. ET (2130 GMT) on Tuesday, and from the Energy Information Administration, at 10:30 a.m. (1530 GMT) on Wednesday. Bank JP Morgan raised its forecast for Chinese crude demand but maintained its projection for a 2023 price average of $90 a barrel for Brent crude. "Absent any major geopolitical events, it would be difficult for oil prices to breach $100 in 2023 as there should be more supply than demand this year," it said in an analyst note. Crude oil prices in physical markets have started the year with a rally on increased buying from China after the relaxation of pandemic controls and on trader concern that sanctions on Russia could tighten supply. The dollar, meanwhile, hovered near a nine-month low against the euro and gave back recent gains against the yen as traders continued to gauge the risks of U.S. recession and the path for Federal Reserve policy. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated commodities such as oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies. Investors have piled back into petroleum futures and options at the fastest rate for more than two years as concerns over a global business cycle downturn have eased. Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI)'s flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed on Tuesday, but British private sector economic activity fell at its fastest rate in two years.
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By Noah Browning (Reuters) -Oil prices fell close to their lowest this year on Monday as street protests against strict COVID-19 curbs in China, the world's biggest crude importer, stoked concern over the outlook for fuel demand. Brent crude dropped by $2.67, or 3.1%, to trade at $80.96 a barrel at 1330 GMT, having dived more than 3% to $80.61 earlier in the session for its lowest since Jan. 4. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid $2.09, or 2.7%, to $74.19 after touching its lowest since Dec. 22 last year at $73.60. Both benchmarks, which hit 10-month lows last week, have posted three consecutive weekly declines. "On top of growing concerns about weaker fuel demand in China due to a surge in COVID-19 cases, political uncertainty caused by rare protests over the government's stringent COVID restrictions in Shanghai prompted selling," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan (OTC:NSANY) Securities. Markets appeared volatile ahead of an OPEC+ meeting this weekend and a looming G7 price cap on Russian oil. China has stuck with President Xi Jinping's zero-COVID policy even as much of the world has lifted most restrictions. Hundreds of demonstrators and police clashed in Shanghai on Sunday night as protests over the restrictions flared for a third day and spread to several cities. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on Dec. 4. In October OPEC+ agreed to reduce its output target by 2 million barrels per day through 2023. Meanwhile, Group of Seven (G7) and European Union diplomats have been discussing a price cap on Russian oil of between $65 and $70 a barrel, with the aim of limiting revenue to fund Moscow's military offensive in Ukraine without disrupting global oil markets. However, EU governments were split on the level at which to cap Russian oil prices, with the impact being potentially muted. "Talks will continue on a price cap but it seems it won't be as strict as first thought, to the point that it may be borderline pointless," said Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA "The threat to Russian output from a $70 cap, for example, is minimal given it's selling around those levels already." The price cap is due to come into effect on Dec. 5 when an EU ban on Russian crude also takes effect.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped on Wednesday after industry data showed that U.S. crude stockpiles rose more than expected and on concerns that a rebound in COVID-19 cases in top importer China would hurt fuel demand. Brent crude futures were down 69 cents, or 0.7%, to $94.67 a barrel by 1331 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures had fallen 63 cents, or 0.7%, to $88.28 a barrel. The benchmarks fell around 3% on Tuesday. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by about 5.6 million barrels for the week ended Nov. 4, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures, while seven analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories would rise by about 1.4 million barrels. Last week, the market had latched onto hopes that China might be moving toward relaxing COVID-19 restrictions, but over the weekend health officials said they would stick to their "dynamic-clearing" approach to new infections. COVID-19 cases in Guangzhou and other Chinese cities have surged, with millions of residents of the global manufacturing hub being required to have COVID-19 tests on Wednesday. "With that (China reopening) narrative getting pushed back, coupled with a considerable build on U.S. inventory data, implying dimming U.S. demand, the recessionary crews are back out in full force this morning in Asia," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a note. In another bearish sign, API data showed U.S. gasoline inventories rose by about 2.6 million barrels, against analysts' forecasts for a drawdown of 1.1 million barrels. The market will get a further view on demand in the world's biggest economy with the release of official U.S. inventory data from the Energy Information Administration at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT). "If the large inventory build is confirmed by EIA today, it will be interesting to see if it generates a bigger reaction in the markets, with Brent now trading back in the middle of the $90-$100 range," said Craig Erlam, senior markets analyst at OANDA. Meanwhile, supply concerns remain. The European Union will ban Russian crude imports by Dec. 5 and Russian oil products by Feb. 5, in retaliation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a "special operation".
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices slid on Monday after Chinese data showed that demand from the world's largest crude importer remained lacklustre in September as strict COVID-19 policies and fuel export curbs depressed consumption. Brent crude futures for December settlement were down $1.17, or 1.3%, at $92.33 a barrel by 1217 GMT, after rising 2% last week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery was at $83.65 a barrel, down $1.40, or 1.7%. Although higher than in August, China's September crude imports of 9.79 million barrels per day were 2% below a year earlier, customs data showed on Monday, as independent refiners curbed throughput amid thin margins and lacklustre demand. "The recent recovery in oil imports faltered in September," ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that independent refiners failed to utilise increased quotas as ongoing COVID-related lockdowns weighed on demand. Uncertainty over China's zero-COVID policy and property crisis are undermining the effectiveness of pro-growth measures, ING analysts said in a note, even though third-quarter gross domestic product growth beat expectations. Brent rose last week despite U.S. President Joe Biden announcing the sale of a remaining 15 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves, part of a record 180 million-barrel release that began in May. Biden added that his aim would be to replenish stocks when U.S. crude is around $70 a barrel. But bank Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said the stocks release was unlikely to have a large impact on prices. "Such a release is likely to have only a modest influence (<$5/bbl) on oil prices", the bank said in a note. U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs last week for the second week in a row as relatively high oil prices encourage firms to drill more, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in a report. (Adttional reporting by Florence Tan; Editing by Mike Harrison, Louise Heavens and Jan Harvey)
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices steadied on Monday, recovering from earlier losses, as investors weighed potentially tight supply against economic storm clouds that could foreshadow a global recession and erosion of fuel demand. Brent crude futures for December settlement fell by as much as 1.1% but recovered to being down 17 cents, or 0.2%, at $97.75 a barrel by 1353 GMT. West Texas Intermediate crude for November delivery declined by as much as 1.1% but was last at $92.62, down 2 cents. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+, decided last week to lower their output target by 2 million barrels per day. Brent and WTI posted their biggest weekly percentage gains since March after the reduction was announced. The OPEC+ cuts will squeeze supply in an already tight market. EU sanctions on Russian crude and oil products will take effect in December and February respectively. Concerns over still relatively robust demand as the pandemic has eased meeting potentially scarce supply have been deepened as the European Union late last week endorsed a G7 plan to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports. The complicated new sanctions package could end up shutting in considerable supplies of Russia crude, analysts have warned. "A recessionary economic outlook will lead to lower oil demand," Fitch Ratings said on Monday. "However, we expect pricing volatility to remain high in the short term as geopolitical factors, such as further sanctions leading to a reduction in Russian exports ... could significantly shift supply patterns and cause large fluctuations in prices." Meanwhile, services activity in China during September contracted for the first time in four months as COVID-19 restrictions hit demand and business confidence, data showed on Saturday. The slowdown in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer behind the United States, adds to growing concerns over a possible global recession triggered by numerous central banks raising interest rates to combat high inflation.
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By Noah Browning (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Thursday as robust U.S. fuel consumption data and expected falls in Russian supply later in the year offset concerns that a possible recession in developed economies could undercut demand. Brent crude futures climbed $1.27, or 1.4%, to $94.92 a barrel by 1117 GMT. U.S. crude futures gained 93 cents, or 1.1%, to $89.04 a barrel. Prices rose more than 1% during the previous session, although Brent at one point fell to its lowest level since February, as signs of a slowdown mounted in some places. British consumer price inflation topped 10% in July, its highest since February 1982, intensifying a squeeze on households, while in China COVID-19 lockdowns and fuel export controls curbed demand. Supporting prices, U.S. crude stocks fell by 7.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 12, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed, against expectations for a 275,000-barrel drop, as exports hit 5 million barrels per day (bpd), the highest on record. Bans by the European Union on Russian exports could dramatically tighten supply when curbs to seaborne crude and products imports into the bloc ramp up in the coming months and drive up prices, analysts warn. "The EU embargoes will force Russia to shut in around 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of output by year-end, rising to 2 million bpd in 2023," consultancy BCA research said in a note. "EU embargoes on Russian oil imports will significantly tighten markets and lift Brent to $119 a barrel by year-end." Russia, however, forecasts rising output and exports until the end of 2025, an economy ministry document reviewed by Reuters showed, saying that revenue from energy exports will rise 38% this year, partly due to higher oil export volumes. The market is also awaiting developments from talks to revive Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, which could eventually lead to a boost in Iranian oil exports. "We may be seeing traders taking a more cautious approach considering how close a decision on the Iran nuclear deal appears to be," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda in London. "There remains plenty of doubt that it will get over the line but if it does, that could be the catalyst for another move lower.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices extended gains on Monday, boosted by a weaker dollar and tight supplies as concerns over gas supply from Russia mounted, offsetting demand fears brought on by a possible recession and China lockdowns. Brent crude futures for September settlement rose by $2.34, or 2.3%, to $103.50 a barrel by 1235 GMT, having gained 2.1% on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for August delivery were up $1.89, or 1.9%, at $99.48 after rising by 1.9% in the previous session. The U.S. dollar retreated from multi-year highs on Monday, supporting prices of commodities ranging from gold to oil. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies. Both Brent and WTI last week registered their biggest weekly declines for about a month on fears of a recession that would hit oil demand. Russian gas export monopoly Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) declared force majeure on gas supplies to Europe to at least one major customer, according to the letter seen by Reuters, potentially ratcheting up the continent's supply crunch. A trading source said the letter concerned supplies through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, a major supply route to Germany and beyond. "Brent crude will find support at the end of the week if Russia does not turn the gas back on to Germany after Nord Stream 1 maintenance," said OANDA senior analyst Jeffrey Halley. Meanwhile, mass COVID-testing exercises continue in parts of China this week, raising concerns over oil demand from the world's second-largest oil consumer. "Mounting demand concerns on another spike in COVID-19 cases in China amid a broader slowdown and resilient Russian output have weighed on oil prices recently," Barclays (LON:BARC) said in a note. "Yet we remain constructive as rerouting supplies will become harder as we inch closer to the implementation of EU sanctions." However, supplies remain tight. As expected, U.S. President Joe Biden's trip to Saudi Arabia failed to yield any pledge from the top OPEC producer to boost oil supply. Biden wants Gulf oil producers to step up output to help to lower oil prices and drive down inflation.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices fell in volatile trade on Monday, reversing most of the previous session's gains as markets braced for an expected drop in demand because of mass testing for COVID-19 in China, which outweighed ongoing concern over tight supply. Brent crude futures fell $2.08, or 1.9%, to $104.94 by 1221 GMT after climbing 2.3% on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined by $2.55, or 2.4%, to $102.24, paring a 2% gain from Friday. The market was rattled by news that China had discovered its first case of a highly transmissible Omicron subvariant in Shanghai and that new cases had jumped to 63 in the country's largest city from 52 a day earlier. The discovery of the new subvariant and the highest number of daily new cases in Shanghai since May could lead to another round of mass testing, which would hurt fuel demand. "The primary driver behind the move lower is the growing concerns of a global economic slowdown and with that the affordability of sustained high oil prices," Investec Risk Solutions said in a note. "The combined impact of concerns of global economic slowdown and a renewed COVID outbreak could hardly come at a worse time for oil markets." The market remains jittery about plans by Western nations to cap Russian oil prices, with Russian President Vladimir Putin warning that further sanctions could lead to "catastrophic" consequences in the global energy market. JP Morgan said the market was caught between concern over a potential halt to Russian supplies and a possible recession. "Macro risks are becoming more two-sided. A 3 million barrel per day retaliatory reduction in Russian oil exports is a credible threat and if realised will drive Brent crude oil prices to roughly $190/bbl," the bank said in a note. "On the other hand, the impact of substantially lower demand growth under recessionary scenarios would see the Brent crude oil price averaging around $90/bbl under a mild recession and $78/bbl under a scenario of a more severe downturn." Questions also remain about how long more crude will flow from Kazakhstan via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). Supply has continued so far on the pipeline, which carries about 1% of global oil, with a Russian court on Monday overturning an earlier ruling suspending operations there.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil rose on Monday as supply concerns driven by lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia outweighed fears of demand-sapping global recession. Euro zone inflation hit yet another record high in June, strengthening the case for rapid European Central Bank rate increases, while U.S. consumer sentiment hit a record low. Brent crude rose $1.55, or 1.4%, to $113.18 a barrel by 1318 GMT after falling more than $1 in early trade. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.34, or 1.2%, to $109.77. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) missed a target to boost output in June, a Reuters survey found. [OPEC/O] In OPEC member Libya, authorities declared force majeure at Es Sidr and Ras Lanuf ports as well as the El Feel oilfield on Thursday, saying oil output was down by 865,000 barrels per day (bpd). Meanwhile, Ecuador's production has been hit by more than two weeks of unrest that has caused the country to lose nearly 2 million barrels of output, state-run oil company Petroecuador said. Adding to potential supply woes, a strike this week in Norway could cut supply from Western Europe's largest oil producer and cut overall petroleum output by about 8%. "This backdrop of mounting supply outages is colliding with a possible shortage in spare production capacity among Middle Eastern oil producers," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM, referring to the limited ability of producers to pump more oil. "And without new oil production hitting markets soon, prices will be forced higher." Brent came close this year to the 2008 record high of $147 a barrel after Russia's invasion of Ukraine added to supply concerns. Soaring energy prices on the back of bans on Russian oil and reduced gas supply has driven inflation to multi-decade highs in some countries and stoked recession fears.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices dipped on Thursday but still hovered near three-month highs after parts of Shanghai imposed new COVID-19 lockdown measures although China's stronger-than-expected exports in May offered a boost to the demand outlook. Brent crude futures for August had dipped 57 cents or 0.5% to $123.01 a barrel by 1327 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for July was at $121.26 a barrel, down 85 cents or 0.7%. China's May exports jumped 16.9% from a year earlier as easing COVID curbs allowed some factories to restart, the fastest growth since January this year and more than double analysts' expectations. But while the Chinese trade figures were upbeat, oil prices eventually reversed their earlier modest gains. "Of far greater importance is news that a district of Shanghai has been locked down today, reviving fears of another leg of China weakness due to its covid-zero policies. That is capping any gains in Asia today," said Jeffrey Halley, OANDA's senior market analyst for Asia Pacific. "That said, it is indicative of how tight supplies are that oil has not retreated on that news today." Parts of Shanghai began imposing new lockdown restrictions on Thursday, with residents of Minhang district ordered to stay home for two days to control transmission risks. "The export performance is impressive in the context of the country's multi-city lockdowns in the month," Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management, said in a note. Meanwhile, peak summer gasoline demand in the United States continued to provide a floor to prices. U.S. gasoline stocks unexpectedly dropped, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Wednesday, indicating resilience in demand for the motor fuel during the peak summer period despite sky-high pump prices. "It's hard to see significant downside in the coming months, with the gasoline market likely to only tighten further as we move deeper into driving season," said ING's head of commodities research Warren Patterson.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices gained on Monday with U.S. fuel demand, tight supply and a slightly weaker U.S. dollar supporting the market, as Shanghai prepares to reopen after a two-month lockdown that fuelled worries about a sharp slowdown in growth. Brent crude futures rose $1.06 or 0.9% to $113.61 a barrel by 1240 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 97 cents, or 0.9%, to $111.25 a barrel, adding to last week's small gains for both contracts. "Oil prices are supported as gasoline markets remain tight amid solid demand heading into the peak U.S. driving season," said SPI Asset Management Managing Partner Stephen Innes. "Refineries are typically in ramp-up mode to feed U.S. drivers' unquenching thirst at the pump." The U.S. peak driving season traditionally begins on Memorial Day weekend at the end of May and ends on Labor Day in September. Analysts said despite fears about soaring fuel prices potentially denting demand, mobility data from TomTom and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) had climbed in recent weeks, showing more people were on the roads in places like the United States. A weaker U.S. dollar also sent oil higher on Monday, as that makes crude cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Market gains have been capped, however, by concerns about China's efforts to crush COVID-19 with lockdowns, even with Shanghai due to reopen on June 1. Lockdowns in China, the world's top oil importer, have hammered industrial output and construction, prompting moves to prop up the economy, including a bigger-than-expected mortgage rate cut last Friday. "The persistent squeeze in refined petroleum products in the U.S. and ever-present Ukraine/Russia risk underpinned prices, with China slowdown and U.S. recession noise limiting gains," said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at OANDA. The European Union's inability to reach a final agreement on banning Russian oil following its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation", has also stopped oil prices from climbing much higher.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices steadied on Friday, setting them on course for little change on the week, as a planned European Union ban on Russian oil balanced demand concerns over slowing economic growth. Brent futures for July were down 18 cents, or 0.2%, to $112.22 a barrel by 1235 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for June fell 2 cents to $112.19 on its last day as the front-month. The more actively traded WTI contract for July was down 14 cents at $109.75 a barrel. The International Monetary Fund urged Asian economies to be mindful of spillover risks from monetary tightening, with IMF Deputy Managing Director Kenji Okamura saying they faced a choice between supporting growth with more stimulus and withdrawing it to stabilise debt and inflation. While Bank of Japan policy runs counter to a global shift towards monetary tightening, central banks in the United States, Britain and Australia raised interest rates recently. Despite higher fuel prices, however, Americans were getting back behind the wheel, according to a report from the Federal Highway Administration on vehicle miles. "There are just so many forces at play at the minute and the increased economic gloom this week and Chinese reopening progress has only added to that," said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at OANDA. "The risks remain tilted to the upside though given the Chinese reopening and continued efforts towards a Russian oil embargo by the EU." The EU is hoping to clinch a deal on a proposed ban of Russian crude imports which includes carve-outs for EU states most dependent on Russian oil such as Hungary. "Odds of an EU embargo being declared sooner rather than later increased in the wake of Germany's success in cutting Russian oil imports by more than half in a very short period," consultancy BCA research said in a note. "Further reductions in Germany’s imports of Russian oil will make it easier for the EU's largest economy to walk away from Russian crude and product imports sooner rather than later."
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Friday but were headed for their first weekly loss in three weeks as worries about inflation and China's COVID lockdowns slowing global growth offset concerns about dwindling supplies from Russia. Brent crude futures were up $2.32, or 2.2%, at $109.77 a barrel at 1345 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed $2.52, or 2.4%, to $108.65 a barrel. Both benchmark contracts were, however, on track to post slight declines for the week. The market is continuing to be pushed and pulled by the prospect of a European Union ban on Russian oil tightening supply and concerns about faltering global demand. SPI Asset Management managing partner Stephen Innes said in a note that oil traders were looking "for a glimmer of light at the end of China's gloomy lockdown tunnel". "Still, we continuously end up at square one with lower case counts weighted against the authorities doubling down on their zero COVID policy," he added. Inflation and rate rises have driven the U.S. dollar to 20-year highs, capping oil price gains as a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive when purchased in other currencies. Analysts, however, continue to focus on the prospect of a European Union ban on Russian oil, after Moscow imposed sanctions this week on European units of state-owned Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) and after Ukraine halted a key gas transit route. "Oil prices are rebounding today as the world is in wait-and-see mode over a broad economic downturn and the potential implications of a recession on oil demand," said Rystad Energy analyst Louise Dickson. "Extended Covid-19 lockdowns in China, rising cases elsewhere, and fiscal policy decisions to combat soaring inflation are giving the markets reason to be skittish as oil continues its run of over $100/barrel averages." An International Energy Agency report on Thursday said rising oil production in the Middle East and the United States and a slowdown in demand growth were "expected to fend off an acute supply deficit amid a worsening Russian supply disruption".
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices jumped by more than 3% on Wednesday on supply tightness and the growing prospect of new Western sanctions against Russia even as Moscow and Kyiv held peace talks. Brent crude futures were up $3.07, or 2.79%, at $113.30 by 1215 GMT, reversing a 2% loss in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $3.20, or 3.07%, to $107.44 a barrel, erasing a 1.6% drop on Tuesday. Crude's price recovery "suggests the oil market, at least, has a strong degree of scepticism about any 'progress' (in the peace talks)," Commonwealth Bank analyst Tobin Gorey said in a note. The market saw a sharp sell-off in the previous session after Russia promised to scale down military operations around Kyiv, but reports of attacks continued. "We would see an additional 1 million barrels per day of Russian production at risk if relations with Europe worsen and an oil embargo is put in place, although we still see this as unlikely," consultancy JBC Energy said in a note. The United States and its allies are planning new sanctions on more sectors of Russia's economy that are critical to sustaining its invasion of Ukraine, including military supply chains. Russia's top lawmaker on Wednesday warned the European Union that oil, grain, metals, fertiliser, coal and timber exports could soon be priced in roubles, having previously demanded that "unfriendly" countries pay in roubles for its gas. The oil market's focus has turned to tight supply after the American Petroleum Institute reported crude stocks fell by 3 million barrels in the week ended March 25, triple the decline that 10 analysts polled by Reuters had expected on average. [API/S] Keeping the market tight, major oil producers are likely to stick to their scheduled output target increase of about 432,000 barrels per day when OPEC+ - the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia - meets on Thursday, several sources close to the group said. [nL2N2VV1LR] However, oil prices face pressure from weakening demand in China owing to tightened mobility restrictions and COVID-19-related lockdowns in multiple cities including the financial hub of Shanghai.
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By Geoffrey Smith and Liz Moyer Investing.com -- U.S. stocks rose ahead of the opening in New York on Wednesday, with a sharp turnaround in Chinese markets providing an upbeat start to a day that will be dominated by the Federal Reserve. By 9:50 AM ET, Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 385 points, or 1.1%, while the S&P 500 was up 1.5% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 2.2%. All three indexes made solid gains on Tuesday as crude oil prices tumbled, taking the sting out of one of the factors that have most hurt markets in the last two weeks. The Fed is expected to hike the target rate for fed funds by 25 basis points to a maximum of 0.5%, from 0.25% currently. Analysts expect at least five more such hikes in the course of the year in an effort to bring down inflation which is running at a 40-year high. Retail sales data for February rose 0.3%, slightly below expectations for 0.4% for the month. For the 12 months ended in February, retail sales rose 17.6%. Chinese ADRs are in turbocharged mode after the central bank and government issued coordinated statements pledging support to both the economy generally and financial markets in particular. Chinese cash stock markets had their biggest ever one-day gain in response, after a tumultuous few sessions overshadowed by Covid-19 lockdowns and the threat of forced delisting from U.S. exchanges. The prospects for a ceasefire in Ukraine appeared to brighten on Wednesday as Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that a neutrality model for Ukraine was on the table that would allow it to keep its own army - a big shift from Moscow's initial position of wanting to change the country's government and demilitarize it. Crude oil prices continued to slide, extending Tuesday's losses that were caused by fears for the strength of Chinese demand. China is currently enacting its most stringent lockdowns in two years to grapple with outbreaks of Covid in the manufacturing hub of Shenzhen and the northeastern province of Jilin. Public health measures have also forced Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to shut its Shanghai factory for two days, according to the company. U.S. crude futures fell 0.4% at $96.00 a barrel, further weighed down by a new forecast from the International Energy Agency IEA says 3 million bpd of Russian oil, products could be shut in next month By Investing.com DNA 3rd party news - Mar 16, 2022 By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Three million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian oil and products... , which said global demand in 2022 could fall by one million barrels a day on average due to the effects of the war and the Western sanctions accompanying it. Gold futures were down 0.7% at $1.915 an ounce. This story was originally published at 7:07 AM ET and updated.
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By Julia Payne and Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices jumped on Wednesday, closing in on a seven-year high, after OPEC+ stuck to its planned output increase despite pressure from top consumers to raise production more quickly. An OPEC+ source told Reuters that the producer group agreed to increase oil production by 400,000 bpd from March after a short meeting. Brent crude was up 43 cents, or 0.5%, at $89.59 a barrel by 1446 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 47 cents, also up 0.5%, to $88.67. Tight oil supplies and geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East have boosted oil prices by about 15% this year. On Friday crude benchmarks hit their highest since October 2014, with Brent touching $91.70 and U.S. crude hitting $88.84. "Bearish EIA statistics this afternoon might be used as an excuse for profit-taking. Unless the weather warms and Ukraine tensions are settled, oil should remain supported," said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga, adding that cold weather in the United States should also support prices. A major winter storm is expected to wallop much of the central United States and stretch to parts of the Northeast this week, bringing heavy snow, freezing rain, and ice, the National Weather Service said on Monday. The storm comes days after a deadly winter blast. U.S. crude stocks fell by 1.6 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 28, against analysts' estimate of an increase of 1.5 million barrels, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. But gasoline inventories rose by 5.8 million barrels, above analysts' expectations for a 1.6 million barrel build. The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, is due to release fresh weekly data later on Wednesday.[EIA/S] Tensions between Russia and the West also underpinned crude prices. Russia, the world's second-largest oil producer, and the West have been at loggerheads over Ukraine, fanning fears that energy supplies to Europe could be disrupted. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the West of deliberately creating a scenario designed to lure it into war and ignoring Russia's security concerns over Ukraine.
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By Alex Lawler and Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil rose to a seven-year high close to $90 a barrel on Wednesday, supported by tight supply and geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East that raise concerns about further disruption. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday he would consider personal sanctions on President Vladimir Putin if Russia invades Ukraine. On Monday, Yemen's Houthi movement launched a missile attack on a United Arab Emirates base. "Anxiety over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and Russia is providing bullish fodder for the oil market," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. Brent crude rose $1.27, or 1.4%, to $89.47 at 1440 GMT after reaching $89.87, the highest since October 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up $1.02, or 1.2%, to $86.62. "The market downside is limited due to heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the threat to infrastructure in the UAE," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, general manager of research at Nissan (OTC:NSANY) Securities. Underlining a tight supply and demand balance, the weekly U.S. inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday showed crude stocks fell by 872,000 barrels, market sources said. [API/S] The official Energy Information Administration (EIA) supply report is due at 1530 GMT.[EIA/S] Investors across the markets are also awaiting the policy update at 1900 GMT from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed is expected to signal plans to raise interest rates in March as it focuses on fighting inflation. In another key development, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, meets on Feb. 2 to consider another output increase. OPEC+ has been gradually unwinding 2020's record output cuts, raising its monthly target by 400,000 barrels per day, though the actual increase in supply has fallen short of that as some countries struggle to raise production.
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By Shadia Nasralla and Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil futures rose on Friday on course for a fourth weekly gain boosted by supply constraints and a weaker dollar and despite sources saying China is set to release crude reserves around the Lunar New Year. Brent crude futures rose 71 cents, or 0.8%, to near a two-and-a-half month high of $85.18 a barrel at 1430 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 57 cents, or 0.7%, to $82.69. Crude prices turned positive as the dollar headed towards what could be its largest weekly fall in more than a year. A weaker dollar makes commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies. [FRX/] Several banks have forecast oil prices of $100 a barrel this year, with demand expected to outstrip supply, not least as capacity constraints among OPEC+ countries come into focus. "When you consider that OPEC+ is still nowhere near pumping to its overall quota, this narrowing cushion could turn out to be the most bullish factor for oil prices over the coming months," said PVM analyst Stephen Brennock. However, sources told Reuters that China plans to release oil reserves around the Lunar New Year holidays between Jan. 31 and Feb. 6 as part of a plan coordinated by the United States with other major consumers to reduce global prices. The U.S. Energy Department on Thursday said it had sold 18 million barrels of strategic crude oil. China has also posted its first annual decline in crude oil imports in two decades, though traders expect imports to recover this year. There were also concerns about fuel demand in the world's second-biggest oil consumer as the Omicron coronavirus variant spread to the cities of Dalian and Tianjin. Many cities, including Beijing, have urged people not to travel during the Lunar New Year holiday, which could cool demand.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices slumped by about $3 on Monday as surging cases of the Omicron coronavirus variant in Europe and the United States stoked investor worries that new mobility restrictions to combat its spread could hit fuel demand. Brent crude futures fell by $3.16, or 4.3%, to $70.36 a barrel by 1506 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $3.47, or 4.9%, at $67.39. "Oil prices are getting pummelled again as sentiment turns south and countries ponder deepening restrictions and lockdowns," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. "None of this bodes well for crude demand in the first quarter of the year." The Netherlands went into lockdown on Sunday and the possibility of more COVID-19 restrictions being imposed ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays loomed over several European countries. U.S. health officials urged Americans on Sunday to get booster shots, wear masks and be careful if they travel over the winter holidays, with the Omicron variant raging across the world and set to take over as the dominant strain in the United States. Meanwhile, U.S. energy companies this week added oil and natural gas rigs for a second week in a row. The oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, rose by three to 579 in the week to Dec. 17, representing its highest since April 2020, energy services business Baker Hughes Co said in its closely followed report on Friday. Lower exports are expected from Russia, however, with exports and transit of oil from the country planned at 56.05 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2022 versus 58.3 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2021, a quarterly export schedule seen by Reuters showed on Friday. Meanwhile, OPEC+ compliance with oil production cuts stood at 117% in November, up 1% from the previous month, two sources from the group told Reuters, as output continues to lag agreed targets.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Wednesday after industry data showed crude oil stockpiles rose more than expected and fuel inventories increased unexpectedly last week in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer. Brent oil futures fell 88 cents, or 1%, to $85.52 a barrel by 1226 GMT after closing at the highest level in seven years on Tuesday. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were down 95 cents, or 1.1%, at $83.70 after gaining 1.1% in the previous session. Both benchmarks remain near multi-year highs and closed on Friday with a seventh straight weekly gain as major producers hold back supply and demand rebounds after the easing of pandemic restrictions. Crude oil inventories rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week ending Oct. 22, market sources said late on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures. That was more than the expected 1.9 million barrel gain. Gasoline inventories rose by 500,000 barrels and distillate stocks increased by 1 million barrels, compared with a forecast for both to drop. [API/S] With Brent rising for the past eight weeks and WTI climbing for the past 10 weeks, prices are starting to look overbought, analysts said. "Barring more bullish headlines, which is possible considering what we saw yesterday, we could see some profit-taking in Brent and WTI, which would be healthy for the market," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. Storage tanks at the WTI oil delivery hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, are more depleted than they have been in the past three years, with prices for longer-dated futures contracts pointing to supplies staying at those levels for months. However, a patchy recovery around the world from the worst health crisis in 100 years, has often led to doubts over the sustainability of oil prices. "The global oil market is still at risk due to not fully containing the coronavirus and its variants," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. "A flare-up in cases over the summer weighed heavily on prices and this could feasibly happen again if the situation worsens."
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices extended pre-weekend gains on Monday to hit multi-year highs, lifted by tight global supply and strengthening fuel demand in the United States and beyond as economies recover from pandemic-induced slumps. Brent crude futures rose by 97 cents, or 1.1%, to $86.50 a barrel by 1225 GMT, the highest since October 2018. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose $1.29, or 1.5%, to $85.05 and reached their highest level since October 2014. Both benchmarks closed last week with slight gains despite rising coronavirus cases in the United Kingdom and Eastern Europe, signalling a potentially difficult winter ahead. "It seems that continuous global stock drawdowns are still widely anticipated in coming months and only a dent in demand growth could change the underlying sentiment," said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) said a strong rebound in global oil demand could push Brent crude prices above its year-end forecast of $90 a barrel. The bank estimated gas-to-oil switching could contribute at least 1 million barrels per day (bpd) to oil demand. After more than a year of depressed fuel demand, gasoline and distillate consumption is back in line with five-year averages in the United States, the world's largest fuel consumer. Meanwhile, U.S. energy companies last week cut oil and natural gas rigs for the first time in seven weeks even as oil prices rose, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said on Friday. Money managers raised their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Oct. 19, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday, underlining strong market sentiment. Oil prices have also been bolstered by worries over coal and gas shortages in China, India and Europe, which spurred fuel switching to diesel and fuel oil for power.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose over $2 on Wednesday after industry data showed a larger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and on expectations demand will rise as vaccination roll-outs widen. Brent oil rose $2.25, or 3.1%, to $75.85 a barrel by 1355 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $2.31, or 3.3%, to $72.77 a barrel. Brent hit its highest levels since late July and WTI since early August. U.S. crude oil, gasoline and distillate stocks fell last week, two market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures, after Hurricane Ida shut numerous refineries and offshore drilling production. [API/S] Crude stocks fell by 5.4 million barrels for the week ending Sept. 10, compared to a forecast 3.5 million barrel drop. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's oil inventory report is due at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday. "The impact of Hurricane Ida was a lot greater than many anticipated and production in the Gulf of Mexico region might struggle to return until Tropical Storm Nicholas is done punishing the region with torrential rain," said Edward Moya, senior analyst at OANDA. Tropical Storm Nicholas moved slowly through the Gulf Coast on Tuesday, leaving hundreds of thousands of homes and businesses without power, although Texas refineries ran normally. Damage from the storm comes two weeks after Hurricane Ida knocked a significant amount of Gulf Coast refining capacity offline. "This year’s hurricane season has a much greater and longer-lasting impact on the global oil balance than in previous years," said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at London brokerage PVM Oil Associates. Oil prices also found support from the International Energy Agency (IEA), which said on Tuesday vaccine roll-outs would power a rebound, after a three-month slide in global oil demand due to the spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and renewed pandemic restrictions. But oil price gains were capped by a fall in China's crude throughput in August with daily refinery runs hitting the lowest since May 2020 and overall factory output faltering.
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Wednesday before an OPEC+ meeting at which the producer club is expected to stick to a plan to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month to the end of December. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, are set to meet at 1500 GMT. OPEC+ has raised its forecast for oil demand next year, sources within the group told Reuters, in a move that might help to build a case for raising output. Brent crude for November delivery gained 21 cents, or 0.3%, to $71.84 a barrel by 1225 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for October was up 22 cents, or 0.3%, at $68.72. U.S. President Joe Biden's administration has urged OPEC+ to boost output to tackle rising gasoline prices that it views as a threat to the global economic recovery. "One foregone conclusion is that they will not add additional barrels as per Washington's recent request. Nor will they press the pause button on easing supply curbs," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM. "There is no reason to think (OPEC+) will rock the boat when it comes to its production strategy." Prices were also supported by a U.S. industry report showing that crude inventories fell more than expected last week, though much U.S. refinery capacity remains offline in the wake of Hurricane Ida. U.S. crude stocks fell by 4 million barrels for the week to Aug. 27, according to two market sources, citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Tuesday. Ahead of the weekly Energy Information Administration report due at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on Wednesday, a Reuters poll of analysts estimated crude stocks would drop by 3.1 million barrels. [EIA/S] However, U.S. crude prices are expected to remain under pressure as offshore oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico gradually recovers, though refinery operations are likely to take longer to return to normal, analysts say. (Addditional reporting by Florence Tan in Singapore and Sonali Paul in MelbourneEditing by Edmund Blair and David Goodman)
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somebody throw Noah and family a life preservers
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too many sheep on the boat Noah
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nice Noah !
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scroll up a bit and look what I told Noah
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thanks for asking Noah
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OHHHH Dros out here dissing Noah
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Noah Holdings Limited is a leading wealth and asset management service provider in China with a focus on high net worth individuals. In the first nine months of 2020, Noah distributed RMB73.4 billion (US$10.8 billion) of financial products. Through Gopher Asset Management, Noah had assets under management of RMB155.7 billion (US$22.9 billion) as of September 30, 2020.
CEO: Jingbo Wang
HQ: No. 1687 Changyang Road Shanghai, 200090 Shanghai