Barclays Bank PLC
34.5601 - 35.2
18.72 - 39.74
Join Discuss about OIL with like-minded investors
looks like oil has bad intentions , could just sudcenly drop
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By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil rose on Monday as supply concerns driven by lower OPEC output, unrest in Libya and sanctions on Russia outweighed fears of demand-sapping global recession. Euro zone inflation hit yet another record high in June, strengthening the case for rapid European Central Bank rate increases, while U.S. consumer sentiment hit a record low. Brent crude rose $1.55, or 1.4%, to $113.18 a barrel by 1318 GMT after falling more than $1 in early trade. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $1.34, or 1.2%, to $109.77. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) missed a target to boost output in June, a Reuters survey found. [OPEC/O] In OPEC member Libya, authorities declared force majeure at Es Sidr and Ras Lanuf ports as well as the El Feel oilfield on Thursday, saying oil output was down by 865,000 barrels per day (bpd). Meanwhile, Ecuador's production has been hit by more than two weeks of unrest that has caused the country to lose nearly 2 million barrels of output, state-run oil company Petroecuador said. Adding to potential supply woes, a strike this week in Norway could cut supply from Western Europe's largest oil producer and cut overall petroleum output by about 8%. "This backdrop of mounting supply outages is colliding with a possible shortage in spare production capacity among Middle Eastern oil producers," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM, referring to the limited ability of producers to pump more oil. "And without new oil production hitting markets soon, prices will be forced higher." Brent came close this year to the 2008 record high of $147 a barrel after Russia's invasion of Ukraine added to supply concerns. Soaring energy prices on the back of bans on Russian oil and reduced gas supply has driven inflation to multi-decade highs in some countries and stoked recession fears.
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Oil rises as tight supply trumps recession fears
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By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Global share markets started in haphazard fashion on Monday as soft U.S. data suggested downside risks for this week's June payrolls report, while the hubbub over possible recession was still driving a relief rally in government bonds. The search for safety kept the U.S. dollar near 20-year highs, though early action was light with U.S. markets on holiday. Cash Treasuries were shut but futures extended their gains, implying 10-year yields were holding around 2.88% having fallen 61 basis points from their June peak. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat, after losing 1.8% last week. Japan's Nikkei added 0.6%, while South Korea fell 0.8%. Chinese blue chips edged up 0.3%, though cities in eastern China tightened COVID-19 curbs on Sunday amid new coronavirus clusters. EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.5% and FTSE futures 0.8%. However, both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures eased 0.7%, after steadying just a little on Friday. David J. Kostin, an analyst at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), noted that every S&P 500 sector bar energy saw negative returns in the first half of the year amid extreme volatility. "The current bear market has been entirely valuation-driven rather than the result of reduced earnings estimates," he added. "However, we expect consensus profit margin forecasts to fall which will lead to downward EPS revisions whether or not the economy falls into recession." Earnings season starts of July 15 and expectations are being marked lower given high costs and softening data. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's much watched GDP Now forecast has slid to an annualised -2.1% for the second quarter, implying the country was already in a technical recession. The payrolls report on Friday is forecast to show jobs growth slowing to 270,000 in June with average earnings slowing a touch to 5.0%. RATES UP, THEN DOWN Yet minutes of the Fed's June policy meeting on Wednesday are almost certain to sound hawkish given the committee chose to hike rates by a super-sized 75 basis points. The market is pricing in around an 85% chance of another hike of 75 basis points this month and rates at 3.25-3.5% by year end. "But the market has also moved to price in an increasingly aggressive rate cut profile for the Fed into 2023 and 2024, consistent with a growing chance of recession," noted analysts at NAB. "Around 60bps of Fed cuts are now priced in for 2023." In currencies, investor demand for the most liquid safe harbour has tended to benefit the U.S. dollar, which is near two-decade highs against a basket of competitors at 105.100. The euro was flat at $1.0429 and not far from its recent five-year trough of $1.0349. The European Central Bank is expected to raise interest rates this month for the first time in a decade, and the euro could get a lift if it decides on a more aggressive half-point move. The Japanese yen also attracted some safe haven flows late last week, dragging the dollar back to 135.23 yen from a 24-year top of 137.01. A high dollar and rising interest rates have not been kind to non-yielding gold, which was pinned at $1,812 an ounce having hit a six-month low last week. [GOL/] Fears of a global economic downturn also undermined industrial metals with copper hitting a 17-month low having sunk 25% from its March peak. [MET/L] Oil prices wobbled as investors weighed demand concerns against supply constraints. Output restrictions in Libya and a planned strike among Norwegian oil and gas workers were just the latest blows to production. [O/R] Brent slipped 1 cent to $111.62, while U.S. crude eased 10 cents to $108.33 per barrel. (Reorting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Sam Holmes & Shri Navaratnam)
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@Salem #Emporos Research
"Oil Price Could Hit "Stratospheric" $380 If Russia Retaliates To G7 Oil Price Cap"
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**QUESTA SETTIMANA** Lunedì 4 Luglio 2022 STATI UNITI **Festa - Giorno dell'Indipendenza** AUSTRALIA 03:30C Approvazioni di progetti edilizi GERMANIA 08:00 Saldo della bilancia commerciale tedesca SVIZZERA 08:30 IPC GERMANIA 14:00 Discorso del Presidente della Buba Nagel CANADA 16:30 Sondaggio sulle prospettive d'affari della BOC Martedì 5 Luglio 2022 NUOVA ZENALDA 00:00 Indice NZIER di fiducia delle aziende GIAPPONE 02:30 Indice PMI servizi AUSTRALIA **03:30 Vendite al dettaglio** CINA 03:45 Indice dei direttori agli acquisti del settore dei servizi AUSTRALIA **06:30 Decisione sul tasso d’interesse** **06:30 Dichiarazioni sulle decisioni relative ai tassi d'interesse della RBA** GERMANIA **09:55 Indice dei direttori degli acquisti del settore servizi tedeschi** EUROZONA **10:00 Indice composito dei servizi** 10:00 Indice dei direttori agli acquisti del settore servizi REGNO UNITO **10:30 Indice PMI composito** **10:30 Indice dei direttori degli acquisti del settore dei servizi** 11:30 Rapporto della BoE sulla Stabilità Finanziaria **12:00 Discorso del Gov. della BoE Bailey** CANADA 14:30 Permessi di costruzione STATI UNITI 16:00 Ordinativi alle fabbriche NUOVA ZELANDA 17:00 Indice dei Prezzi GlobalDairyTrade REGNO UNITO 18:30 Discorso di Tenreyro, membro del MPC Mercoledì 6 Luglio 2022 GERMANIA 08:00 Ordini alle fabbriche tedesche 09:30 Indice PMI sul settore edile IHS S&P Global REGNO UNITO 10:10 Discorso di Pill, membro del Comitato per la politica monetaria MPC **10:30 Indice dei direttori degli acquisti del settore costruzioni** EUROZONA 11:00 Vendite al dettaglio REGNO UNITO 15:00 Discorso del Membro MPC Cunliffe STATI UNITI 15:00 Discorso del Membro del FOMC Williams 15:45 Indice S&P Global PMI Composito 15:45 Indice dei direttori agli acquisti del settore terziario 16:00 Indice ISM dell'occupazione non manifatturiera **16:00 Indice ISM non manifatturiero** **16:00 Nuovi Lavori JOLTs** **20:00 Verbali di riunione del FOMC** 22:30 Scorte settimanali di petrolio Giovedì 7 Luglio 2022 AUSTRALIA 03:30 Saldo della bilancia commerciale SVIZZERA 07:45 Tasso di disoccupazione non destagionalizzato 07:45 Tasso di disoccupazione destagionalizzato REGNO UNITO 08:00 Indice Halifax dei prezzi delle case Annuale e Mensile GERMANIA 08:00 Produzione industriale tedesca REGNO UNITO 10:30 Produttività della manodopera EUROZONA **13:30 La BCE pubblica le minute del meeting inerente le decisioni di politica monetaria** STATI UNITI 14:30 Esportazioni 14:30 Importazioni 14:30 Saldo della bilancia commerciale **14:30 Richieste iniziali di sussidi di disoccupazione** CANADA 14:30 Saldo della bilancia commerciale **16:00 Indice Ivey dei direttori agli acquisti** STATI UNITI **17:00 Scorte di petrolio greggio** 17:00 Inventario di Cushing, Oklahoma, delle giacenze di Crude Oil 19:00 Discorso di Waller, membro della Fed 19:00 Discorso del membro del FOMC Bullard GERMANIA 19:30 Discorso del Presidente della Buba Nagel Venerdì 8 Luglio 2022 GIAPPONE 01:30 Consumi delle famiglie Annuale e Mensile 01:50 Conto corrente (non destagionalizzato) **13:55 Discorso della Presidente della BCE Lagarde** STATI UNITI 14:30 Salario orario medio 14:30 Retribuzione oraria media **14:30 NFPR Buste paga del settore non agricolo** 14:30 Tasso partecipazione 14:30 Libri paga non agricoli privati **14:30 Tasso di disoccupazione** CANADA **14:30 Variazione nel livello di occupazione** **14:30 Tasso di disoccupazione** STATI UNITI 17:00 Discorso del Membro del FOMC Williams FEDERAZIONE RUSSA 18:00 IPC Sabato 9 Luglio 2022 **03:30 IPC**
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Biden intende bloccare le nuove trivellazioni petrolifere offshore nell'Atlantico e nel Pacifico. - WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-plans-to-block-new-offshore-oil-drilling-in-atlantic-pacific-11656709209?mod=latest_headlines
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EU Looking to Ban Russian Gold in New Sanctions Package Price cap on Russian oil exports not seen coming any time soon Measures could include adjustments to earlier trade sanctions A 12.5 kilogram gold ingot at the Prioksky non-ferrous metals plant in Kasimov, Russia. A 12.5 kilogram gold ingot at the Prioksky non-ferrous metals plant in Kasimov, Russia. Source: Bloomberg By Alberto Nardelli 1 July 2022 at 6:48 pm AWST The European Union is working on new sanctions to target Russian gold, matching a move by the Group of Seven nations aimed at further choking off Moscow’s revenue sources, according to people familiar with the matter. Russia is the second largest gold mining country in the world, and its gold exports were estimated to be worth £12.6 billion in 2021. When the UK, the US, Japan and Canada unveiled their plans to ban new gold imports from Russia earlier this week, Britain said the measure would have a “huge impact” on Vladimir Putin’s ability to fund his armed forces and oligarchs’ attempts to avoid the impact of financial sanctions by buying bullion. Industry analysts are less enthusiastic, describing the ban as largely symbolic because penalties imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine have effectively already closed off European and US markets. And even flows to traditional centers of trading in London and Zurich have mostly dried up due to self-sanctioning by the industry. Preparations for the new sanctions package are ongoing and some nations will be pushing to add more measures to the proposals before they are presented to member states for approval, one of the people said. The new package will also cover fixes to previously approved measures, which could include adjustments to rules around the transit of sanctioned goods to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private discussions. Some officials have raised concerns that Lithuania could be pressured into allowing banned goods to transit through the country to Kaliningrad. Lithuania is imposing restrictions in line with sanctions agreed by the whole bloc, and people as well as the vast majority of goods continue to move freely between the two parts of Russia. Still, prohibitions on more Russian goods are set to come into force this month and the European Commission has been seeking to agree new guidance with Vilnius before then amid worries the standoff could escalate. One of the people said any rules on applying sanctions would need to be for the whole EU and not single out Lithuania. Moscow has threatened to retaliate against the EU member state if it continues to block rail transport of goods such as steel.
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same set up as the Oil short from 2 weeks ago
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By Ahmad Ghaddar LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose about 3% on Friday, recouping most of the previous session's declines, as supply outages in Libya and expected shutdowns in Norway outweighed expectations that an economic slowdown could dent demand. Brent crude futures were up $3.03, or 2.8%, at $112.06 a barrel by 1157 GMT, having dropped to $108.03 a barrel earlier in the session. WTI crude futures gained $2.84, or 2.7%, to $108.60 a barrel, after retreating to $104.56 a barrel earlier. Both contracts fell around 3% on Thursday, ending the month lower for the first time since November. We "still see risks to prices as skewed to the upside on tight inventories, limited spare capacity and muted non-OPEC+ supply response," Barclays (LON:BARC) said in a note. Libya's National Oil Corporation declared force majeure on Thursday at the Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports as well as the El Feel oilfield. Force majeure is still in effect at the ports of Brega and Zueitina, NOC said. Production has seen a sharp decline, with daily exports ranging between 365,000 and 409,000 bpd, a decrease of 865,000 bpd compared to production in "normal circumstances", NOC said. Elsewhere, 74 Norwegian offshore oil workers at Equinor's Gudrun, Oseberg South and Oseberg East platforms will go on strike from July 5, the Lederne trade union said on Thursday, likely halting about 4% of Norway's oil production. Ecuador's government and indigenous groups' leaders on Thursday reached an agreement to end more than two weeks of protests which had led to the shut-in of more than half of the country's pre-crisis 500,000 bpd oil output. On Thursday, the OPEC+ group of producers, including Russia, agreed to stick to its output strategy after two days of meetings. However, the producer club avoided discussing policy from September onwards. Previously, OPEC+ decided to increase output each month by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July and August, up from a previous plan to add 432,000 bpd per month. U.S. President Joe Biden will make a three-stop trip to the Middle East in mid-July that includes a visit to Saudi Arabia, pushing energy policy into the spotlight as the United States and other countries face soaring fuel prices that are driving up inflation. Biden said on Thursday he would not directly press Saudi Arabia to increase oil output to curb soaring prices when he sees the Saudi king and crown prince during a visit this month. A Reuters survey found that OPEC pumped 28.52 million bpd in June, down 100,000 bpd from May's revised total. [OPEC/O] Oil prices are expected to stay above $100 a barrel this year as Europe and other regions struggle to wean themselves off Russian supply, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, though economic risks could slow the climb. India introduced export duties on gasoil, gasoline and jet fuel on Friday to help maintain domestic supplies, while also imposing a windfall tax on oil producers who have benefited from higher global crude oil prices.
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Oil prices up 3% on supply outages
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [July 01, 2022]: Another Breakdown Coming in BTC, ETH?** JULY 01, 2022 — FRIDAY AM The ES and NQ are trading within relatively narrow ranges today ahead of the holiday-extended weekend in the US. Each of these markets have created new key ranges after the recent rally and drop. These will give us great levels to use moving forward, and they already give us major targets to watch once expansion occurs. Watch 109 in Crude Oil today, as a rejection here could trigger another round of selling pressure. BTC and ETH have both developed bearish FNHs after yesterday's breakdown days. This could be a major indication of weakness to come.
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By Peter Nurse Investing.com - European stock markets are expected to open lower Friday, with investors becoming increasingly worried about the global economic outlook as central banks tighten monetary policy to combat soaring inflation. At 2 AM ET (0600 GMT), the DAX futures contract in Germany traded 0.9% lower, CAC 40 futures in France dropped 0.7%, and the FTSE 100 futures contract in the U.K. fell 0.5%. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned in a speech at the central bank’s annual forum earlier this week that the central bank will go "as far as necessary" to bring inflation back down to its 2% target. The focus will be on Eurozone consumer price data, due later Friday, with investors looking for signs that inflation has peaked. German inflation unexpectedly slowed last month, but the annual CPI for the euro bloc is expected to climb to 8.4% in June, a new record after it reached 8.1% the previous month. Additionally, manufacturing PMI data for the Eurozone, and especially Germany, the region’s powerhouse, are also due Friday and are expected to show deteriorating confidence in this key sector. It’s not only Europe where economic growth is slowing. The growth in U.S. consumer spending weakened in May for the first time this year, while Asia's manufacturing activity, with the exception of China, stalled in June, weighed by supply disruptions, rising costs, and persistent material shortages. China offered a ray of light, as its manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest in 13 months in June, boosted by the lifting of COVID lockdowns. In the corporate sector, Sodexo (EPA:EXHO) will be in the spotlight after the French food services group reported better-than-expected revenue for the third quarter, citing strong growth in all business segments and geographies, helped by price hikes and post-Omicron volume recovery. Oil prices weakened Friday, heading for its third consecutive weekly fall, its worst run this year, on concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy, the largest consumer of crude in the world, and as a group of top producers increased supply. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies decided to stick with its previously announced plan to increase output each month by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August but avoided discussing policy from September onwards. By 2 AM ET, U.S. crude futures traded 0.8% lower at $104.89 a barrel, while the Brent contract fell 0.6% to $108.33. Both contracts fell around 3% during the previous session, and are on course to fall at least 2% this week. Additionally, gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,799.30/oz, while EUR/USD traded 0.1% lower at 1.0469.
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waiting on the delicious oil drop to $90 and below
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gold and oil behaving as forecast
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [June 30, 2022]: Key Levels to Watch** JUNE 30, 2022 — THURSDAY AM The ES and NQ have taken out yLO and could see furthr range expansion to the downside today. Failure to get back above 3790 in the ES, and 11575 in the NQ, could trigger more selling pressure ahead. Crude Oil put in a strong pivot high at 114 yday, which could lead to more downside ahead on a swing basis. BTC and ETH may be on the verge of another downside break soon - and BTC could lose half its value in the process.
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**Il vice premier russo Novak: l'OPEC+ conferma l'aumento della produzione di agosto a 648k b/d.** L'aumento della produzione è necessario per soddisfare la crescente domanda di petrolio. Produzione russa di solo greggio a 9,9 mln BPD. La prossima riunione dell'OPEC+ è prevista per l'inizio di agosto - Interfax. I Paesi OPEC+ hanno deciso di aumentare la produzione di petrolio ad agosto di 648.000 bpd - Tass. I tetti al prezzo del petrolio porterebbero a uno squilibrio e a un deficit del mercato. La decisione di mantenere il piano di produzione di petrolio per agosto garantirà un mercato equilibrato - Interfax. Price cap on Russian oil would disbalance market, lead to higher global prices - Interfax. **L'OPEC+ approva il piano di aumento della produzione di petrolio di 648.000 BPD in agosto.** La BCE reinvestirà i proventi del PEPP laddove gli spread si sono ampliati - Fonte.
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i don't know if oil will get to $90 , but is most likely to , you dont think 150 is a bit over high
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Oil either going $150 or $87 Atlas target
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By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares were ending a rough quarter in a sombre mood on Thursday amid fears central banks' cure for inflation will end up sickening the global economy, though it is proving to be a fillip for the safe-haven dollar and government bonds. As policy makers reiterated their commitment to controlling inflation no matter what pain it caused, data on U.S. core prices later in the session should only underline the extent of the challenge. "Inflation can be sticky," warned analysts at ANZ. "It is broadening from goods to services and wage growth is accelerating. "Even with rapid rate rises, it will take time for tightness in labour markets to unwind, and that means inflation can stay higher for longer." That suggests it is too early to pick a peak for interest rates or a bottom for stocks, even though markets have already fallen a long way. The S&P 500 has lost almost 16% this quarter, its worst performance since the very start of the pandemic, while the Nasdaq is off an eye-watering 21%. On Thursday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both down 0.4% with little sign as yet that the new quarter will bring in brave bargain hunters. EUROSTOXX 50 futures and FTSE futures both fell 0.5%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan eased another 0.5%, bringing its losses for the quarter to 10%. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.4%, though its drop this quarter has been a relatively modest 5% thanks to a weak yen and the Bank of Japan's dogged commitment to super-easy policies. The need for stimulus was underscored by data showing Japanese industrial output dived 7.2% in May, when analysts had looked for a dip of only 0.3%. Chinese blue chips added 1.6% helped by a survey showing a marked pick up in services activity. Analysts at JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) expect a major rebound in China in coming months and felt that, with so much bad news priced into world markets, positioning argued for a bounce. "It is not that we think that the world and economies are in great shape, but just that an average investor expects an economic disaster, and if that does not materialize risky asset classes could recover most of their losses from the first half," they wrote in a note. DOLLAR IN DEMAND For now, the risk of recession was enough to bring U.S. 10-year yields back to 3.10% from their recent peak at 3.498%, though that is still up 77 basis points for the quarter. The yield curve has continued to flatten, and turned negative in the three- to seven-year range, while futures are almost fully priced for another Federal Reserve hike of 75 basis points in July. ted the U.S. dollar its best quarter since late 2016. The dollar index was trading up at 105.100 and just a whisker from its recent two-decade peak of 105.79. The euro was struggling at $1.0452, having shed 5.6% for the quarter so far, though it remains just above the May trough of $1.0348. It also dropped to a fresh 7-1/2-year low versus the Swiss franc at 0.99663 francs. The Japanese yen is in even worse shape, with the dollar having gained more than 12% this quarter to 136.50 and hitting its highest since 1998. Rising interest rates and a high dollar have not been good for non-yielding gold which was stuck at $1,816 an ounce having lost 6% for the quarter. [GOL/] Oil prices were flat on Thursday amid concerns about an unseasonable slowdown in U.S. gasoline demand, even as global supplies remain tight. [O/R] OPEC and OPEC+ end two days of meetings on Thursday with little expectation they will be able to pump much more oil despite U.S. pressure to expand quotas. September Brent rose 17 cents to $112.62 a barrel, while U.S. crude added 7 cents to $109.85.
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@Salem #Emporos Research
/MCL is crude oil
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**valuewalk:** Military Pledges Against Russian Threat And Oil Climbs Again https://t.co/8kOZYUzT4e #LONBA #LONBP https://twitter.com/valuewalk/status/1542226278836670464
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@touchthehorizon #Emporos Research
well not for long > @Atlas said: oil , going down the hole . . .
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oil , going down the hole . . .
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EIA Crude Oil Inventories Draw Of 2.762M Vs Est. Draw Of 568K
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Oil inventories in a few minutes with crude hanging at $114 level
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By Sam Byford TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stock markets fell on Wednesday, extending Wall Street's overnight losses amid concerns over inflation and the possibility of recession, which also boosted the safe-haven dollar. Japan's Nikkei index fell 0.98%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.37%, dragged lower by Australian shares, off 0.81%, and Korea's KOSPI, down 1.54%. Asian shares had ended the Tuesday session on an upward trajectory after China announced an easing of its quarantine requirements for inbound passengers, in what some observers saw as the biggest relaxation so far of its "zero COVID" strategy. But the positive impact had petered out on Wednesday. "Inevitably, markets tend to overreact to these sorts of news," said Carlos Casanova, senior economist at UBP in Hong Kong. "In order for that to be sustainable, we really want to see these measures materialise into actual reopening." Chinese blue chips, which hit a four month high the day before, lost 1.16% while the Hong Kong benchmark fell 1.83%. [.SS] EUROSTOXX 50 futures were down 0.57% and FTSE futures lost 0.68% before European markets opened. The losses in Asia followed a turbulent day on U.S. markets, with the S&P 500 index down more than 2% after data showed U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a 16-month low in June due to fears high inflation could cause the economy to slow significantly in the second half of the year. "It's all pointing to rising expectations of an economic slowdown, potentially a recession in the US economy, maybe as soon as this year," said Casanova. Renewed worries over the potential for a global recession drove investors into the safe haven dollar, and the dollar index remained firm at 104.5. The euro dropped 0.6% on the greenback overnight, and was little changed in Asia at $1.0506. The Japanese yen stood at 136.03 per dollar, not far off last week's 24-year low of 136.7. The yen has struggled as the Bank of Japan keeps monetary policy loose even as other major banks tighten, a point reiterated by BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Wednesday. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes fell seven basis points to 3.134%. Oil prices fell back slightly after three sessions of gains, but global supply tightness limited the losses. An overnight report suggested that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are unable to raise output significantly in the near future. Brent crude futures fell 0.86% on the day to $116.96 a barrel. U.S. crude was down 0.72% to $110.94. Spot gold was flat, gaining 0.07% to trade at $1,820.7600 an ounce.
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**SOTTO LA LENTE OGGI** Mercoledì 29 Giugno 2022 GIAPPONE 01:50 Vendite al dettaglio (Annuale) (Mag) AUSTRALIA 03:30 Vendite al dettaglio (Mensile) (Mag) GERMANIA 09:05 Discorso di Balz, membro della Buba tedesca EUROZONA 09:45 Discorso di De Guindos della BCE 10:45 Discorso di De Guindos della BCE 12:15 Discorso di Schnabel membro della BCE STATI UNITI 12:30 Discorso del membro del FOMC Mester REGNO UNITO **13:35 Discorso del Gov. della BoE Bailey** GERMANIA 14:00 IPC in Germania STATI UNITI **14:30 PIL (Trimestrale)** 14:30 Indice dei prezzi PIL (Trimestrale) **15:00 Discorso del Presidente della Fed Powell** EUROZONA **15:00 Discorso della Presidente della BCE Lagarde** REGNO UNITO **15:30 Discorso del Gov. della BoE Bailey** STATI UNITI **16:30 Scorte di petrolio greggio** 16:30 Inventario di Cushing, Oklahoma, delle giacenze di Crude Oil EUROZONA **17:00 Discorso della Presidente della BCE Lagarde** STATI UNITI 19:05 Discorso del membro del FOMC Bullard
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Oil broke 110
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gold and oil are both just buying time as they head down
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Petroliera fermata dagli USA in transito dal porto russo a New Orleans. - WSJ. Le autorità statunitensi hanno fermato una nave in viaggio dalla Russia alla Louisiana con un carico di prodotti combustibili, secondo quanto riferito da persone che hanno familiarità con la questione. - Articolo del WSJ. https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-tanker-is-stopped-by-u-s-on-transit-from-russian-port-to-new-orleans-11656429086?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [June 28, 2022]: Narrow 2-Day Ranges** JUNE 28, 2022 — TUESDAY AM The ES and NQ both rejected yLO in overnight trading, but have yet to see a strong move out of yesterday's narrow range. Instead, the equity futures have developed narrow 2-day ranges for now, which could persist into the close of the session. Given the short term strength over the last week, rejections at yLO could trigger further strength ahead. Crude Oil is pushing higher within market structure, with the top end of the range at 115. BTC remains within a super narrow trading range, while ETH is attempting to push higher within its developing narrow range.
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By Julie Zhu HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares swung into positive territory in afternoon trade on Tuesday, propelled by China's decision to ease some quarantine requirements for international arrivals, with Hong Kong stocks particularly supported. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.5%, having spent most of the day in the red. The index has fallen 3.8% so far this month. Health authorities said on Tuesday that China will halve to seven days its COVID-19 quarantine period for visitors from overseas, with a further three days spent at home. Following the news, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index reversed its losses and jumped 0.85% in afternoon trade. In China, the blue-chip CSI300 index was 1% higher, also having clawed back earlier losses. The sharp change in mood looked set to last into the global day with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.31%, German DAX futures 0.2% higher and FTSE futures climbing 0.47%. U.S. stock futures rose 0.46%. "With local new infections dropping further in June, and COVID curbs to ease more, we expect the (Chinese) economy to continue to recover," BofA said in its note. "That said, given soft domestic demand and lingering COVID uncertainties, the mending path is likely to be bumpy in the coming months." Market sentiment was also boosted by an official's remarks that Beijing would roll out tools to cope with economic challenges as COVID-19 outbreaks and risks from the Ukraine war pose a threat to employment and price stability. Australian shares were up 0.86%, while Japan's Nikkei stock index rose 0.66%. U.S. stocks ended a volatile trading session slightly lower on Monday with few catalysts to sway investor sentiment as they approach the half-way point of a year in which equity markets have been slammed by heightened inflation worries and tightening Fed policy. Interest rate sensitive megacaps such as Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) Inc were the heaviest drags on the U.S. main indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 lost 0.30% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.72%. Oil continued to rise with investors still weighing worries about an economic slowdown against concerns over lost Russian supply amid sanctions related to the conflict in Ukraine. U.S. crude ticked up 1.02% to $110.69 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $116.42 per barrel. "A seam of tight supply news bolstered the (oil) market," said analysts at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY). "Political unrest might curtail supply from a couple of second-tier producers, Ecuador and Libya. And then there's the G7's proposed price cap on Russian oil." In bond markets, Treasury yields climbed on Monday following capital and durable goods orders data and as pending home sales surprised to the upside from the previous month. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes last reached 3.1828% on Tuesday, compared with its U.S. close of 3.194% on Monday. The two-year yield, which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 3.0934%. Also, the dollar edged lower versus major rivals as investors weighed expectations on inflation and interest rate hikes. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, was down at 103.96. Gold was slightly higher with the spot price trading at $1,825.79 per ounce. [GOL/]
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Oil trade done
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [June 27, 2022]: Buy the Dip This Week?** JUNE 27, 2022 — MONDAY AM The ES and NQ both finished last week on the highs of the week, after finally getting an upside break through the top of narrow multi-day ranges. Watch wHI/wCL for early signs of rejection, which could lead to an early pullback this week. Should a pullback occur, expect bulls to defend for a shot at finishing the week higher into the extended holiday weekend. Crude Oil remains below the 115 market structure level, which suggests more trading between 95 and 115. BTC and ETH continue to build out narrow ranges, which could fuel the next major decline ahead. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Wednesday, and NFP has been moved from Friday, July 1 to the following Friday, July 8.
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Maybe after midterms they fix oil
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Oil going back to $110 why you think goverments smart enough to drop it to $87 @Atlas
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By Kevin Buckland and Sam Byford TOKYO (Reuters) - Shares rose broadly across Asia on Monday, building on morning gains and a Friday Wall Street rebound as sentiment improved and oil prices steadied, tempering fears of prolonged inflation. Treasury yields remained subdued and the dollar hovered near the lowest in more than a week as investors continued to assess the outlook for U.S. rate hikes, and the potential for a recession. Japan's Nikkei rallied 1.51%, while Australia's benchmark jumped 2.03% and looked set for its best day in more than six weeks. Chinese blue chips rose 1.17% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 2.39%. South Korea's KOSPI gained 1.83%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares rose 1.81%. U.S. stock futures are up slightly by 0.8% after falling earlier in the day. On Friday, the S&P 500 surged more than 3%, adding to an almost 1% gain on Thursday. FTSE futures and EUROSTOXX 50 futures both rose 0.45% ahead of the start of European market trading. "I don't think anyone's got any smoking guns for this market right now," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. "If you're looking for proper risk-on, all markets moving the same direction, correlation across asset classes going to 1, we’re not seeing that today." "The Aussie's the worst performer, the yen's the best performer, you're not seeing much love in crypto, there's no real move in the energy space. It's more of an equities story today." Crude oil fell in volatile trading on Monday as the market grapples with concerns that a global economic slowdown could depress demand versus worries about lost Russian supply amid sanctions over the Ukraine conflict. Both Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures were flat on the day after back-and-forth trading in the morning. Brent is up 0.1% at $113.2 a barrel, while WTI fell 0.01% to $107.63. U.S. long-term Treasury yields hovered around 3.16% after bouncing off a two-week low just above 3% at the end of last week as traders removed bets for hikes next year, but still pondered if aggressive tightening this year could trigger a recession. Yields have dropped from 3.456%, the highest in more than a decade, reached before the mid-month Fed meeting. Then, the central bank hiked rates by 75 basis points, the biggest increase since 1994, and signalled that a similar move is possible in July. "The market remains focused in the trade-off between the policy response to high inflation and fears of a hard landing," Westpac rates strategist Damien McColough wrote in a client note. "There will be ongoing discussions as to whether long-end yields have peaked, however we would not yet expect 10-year yields to fall materially or sustainably below 3%." The dollar was steady on Monday, continuing to consolidate near the lowest since the middle of the month against major peers. The dollar index - which measures the currency versus six rivals - was little changed at 103.950, after gradually gravitating over the past few sessions toward the June 17 low of 103.83. Gold ticked 0.49% higher to $1,835.16 per ounce. Bitcoin was flat, trading at $21,170.88 after falling as low as $17,588.88 earlier this month.
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Stocks gain as risk sentiment improves, oil steadies
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**QUESTA SETTIMANA** Lunedì 27 Giugno 2022 GERMANIA 08:00 Vendite al dettaglio in Germania STATI UNITI **14:30 Principali ordinativi di beni durevoli** 14:30 Ordinativi di beni durevoli **16:00 Contratti pendenti di vendita di Abitazioni** EUROZONA **20:30 Discorso della Presidente della BCE Lagarde** 21:00 Discorso di Schnabel membro della BCE Martedì 28 Giugno 2022 STATI UNITI 00:30 Discorso del Membro del FOMC Williams GERMANIA 08:00 Rapporto della GfK sul clima fra i consumatori tedeschi REGNO UNITO 09:30 Discorso del Membro MPC Cunliffe EUROZONA **10:00 Discorso della Presidente della BCE Lagarde** 10:30 Discorso di Lane membro della BCE 11:30 Discorso di Elderson della BCE 13:00 Discorso di Panetta membro della BCE STATI UNITI 14:30 Bilancia Commerciale di Beni 14:30 Scorte dettaglio auto escluse 15:00 Indice HPI S&P/CS Composite-21 non destagionalizzato **16:00 Rapporto sulla fiducia dei consumatori** 22:30 Scorte settimanali di petrolio Mercoledì 29 Giugno 2022 GIAPPONE 01:50 Vendite al dettaglio (Annuale) (Mag) AUSTRALIA 03:30 Vendite al dettaglio (Mensile) (Mag) GERMANIA 09:05 Discorso di Balz, membro della Buba tedesca EUROZONA 09:45 Discorso di De Guindos della BCE 10:45 Discorso di De Guindos della BCE 12:15 Discorso di Schnabel membro della BCE STATI UNITI 12:30 Discorso del membro del FOMC Mester REGNO UNITO **13:35 Discorso del Gov. della BoE Bailey** GERMANIA 14:00 IPC in Germania STATI UNITI **14:30 PIL (Trimestrale)** 14:30 Indice dei prezzi PIL (Trimestrale) **15:00 Discorso del Presidente della Fed Powell** EUROZONA **15:00 Discorso della Presidente della BCE Lagarde** REGNO UNITO **15:30 Discorso del Gov. della BoE Bailey** STATI UNITI **16:30 Scorte di petrolio greggio** 16:30 Inventario di Cushing, Oklahoma, delle giacenze di Crude Oil EUROZONA **17:00 Discorso della Presidente della BCE Lagarde** STATI UNITI 19:05 Discorso del membro del FOMC Bullard Giovedì 30 Giugno 2022 GIAPPONE 01:50 Produzione industriale NUOVA ZELANDA 03:00 Livello di fiducia delle aziende AUSTRALIA 03:30 Credito al settore privato CINA 03:30 Indice PMI composito cinese **03:30 Indice dei direttori agli acquisti del settore manifatturiero 03:30 Indice PMI non Manifatturiero REGNO UNITO 08:00 Investimenti delle aziende 08:00 Partite correnti **08:00PIL (Annuale)** **08:00 PIL (Trimestrale)** 08:00 Indice nazionale dei prezzi delle case (Annuale) 08:00 Indice nazionale dei prezzi delle case (Mensile) GERMANIA 08:00 Vendite al dettaglio in Germania SVIZZERA 08:30 Vendite al dettaglio (Annuale) 09:00 Indicatore predittivo KOF EUROZONA 09:00 Discorso di Enria membro della BCE GERMANIA **09:55 Variazione della disoccupazione in Germania** 09:55 Tasso di disoccupazione tedesco EUROZONA **11:00 Tasso di disoccupazione (Mag)** STATI UNITI da fissare Vertice dell'OPEC GERMANIA **14:00 IPC in Germania** STATI UNITI 14:30 Indice prezzi spese personali principali 14:30 Indice dei principali prezzi di spesa per consumi **14:30 Richieste iniziali di sussidi di disoccupazione 14:30 Indice prezzi PCE (Annuale) 14:30 Indice prezzi spesa per consumi (Mensile) 14:30 Spese personali CANADA **14:30 PIL (Mensile)** STATI UNITI 15:45 Indice dei direttori agli acquisti di Chicago Venerdì 1 Luglio 2022 **Tutto il Giorno Festa Canada - Festa Nazionale** AUSTRALIA 00:30 Indice manifatturiero AIG NUOVA ZELANDA 00:45 Permessi di costruzione rilasciati GIAPPONE 01:30 Rapporto fra domande e offerte di lavoro 01:30 Indice generale dei prezzi a Tokyo (Annuale) 01:30 IPC Tokyo esclusi alimentari ed energetici (Mensile) 01:50 Indice Tankan CAPEX delle grandi imprese (2° trim.) 01:50 Previsioni Tankan sulle grandi imprese (2° trim.) **01:50 Indice Tankan dei grandi produttori manifatturieri (2° trim.)** **01:50 Indice Tankan delle grandi aziende non manifatturiere (2° trim.)** CINA **03:45 Indice Manifatturiero PMI - Caixin** REGNO UNITO 08:00 Indice nazionale dei prezzi delle case (Annuale) 08:00 Indice nazionale dei prezzi delle case (Mensile) SVIZZERA 09:30 PMI procure.ch GERMANIA **09:55 Indice dei direttori degli acquisti del settore manifatturiero** EUROZONA **10:00 Indice PMI manifatturiero** REGNO UNITO **10:30 Indice dei direttori degli acquisti del settore manifatturiero** EUROZONA 11:00 IPC italiano (Mensile) 11:00 Indice principali prezzi al consumo (Annuale) **11:00 IPC (Mensile)** **11:00 IPC (Annuale)** STATI UNITI 15:45 Indice dei direttori agli acquisti del settore manifatturiero 16:00 Indice ISM dell'occupazione manifatturiera **16:00 Indice ISM dei direttori agli acquisti del settore manifatturiero** 19:00 Impianti trivellazione USA Baker Hughes 19:00 Dati di Baker Hughes sul numero totale degli impianti di estrazione negli USA
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By Alex Lawler LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose by more than $1 a barrel on Friday supported by tight supply, although crude was heading for a second weekly fall on concern that rising interest rates could push the world economy into recession. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday the central bank's focus on curbing inflation was "unconditional", adding to fears about more interest rate hikes that have weighed on financial markets. Brent crude was up $1.22, or 1.1%, at $111.27 a barrel by 1333 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.94, or 1.9%, to $106.21. Both benchmarks were heading for a second weekly decline. "Increasing recession fears appear to be prompting a culling of heavy speculative long positioning in both contracts, even as in the real world, energy tightness is as real as ever," said Jeffrey Halley, analyst at brokerage OANDA. Oil came close this year to an all-time high of $147 reached in 2008 as Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbated tight supplies just as demand has been recovering from the COVID pandemic. Crude has gained support from the almost total shutdown of output in OPEC member Libya due to unrest. The Libyan oil minister said on Thursday the National Oil Corporation chairman was withholding production data from him, raising doubts over figures he issued last week. Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM said recession fears dominated sentiment, adding: "That being said, the consensus remains that the oil market will see high demand and tight supply over the summer months, thereby limiting the downside." The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, meet on June 30 and are expected to stick to an earlier plan to accelerate slightly hikes in oil production in July and August, rather than provide more oil. The latest U.S. oil inventory figures, which will give a snapshot of supply tightness in the top consumer, have been delayed to next week.
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Oil rises over $1, still set for weekly drop on recession fears
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By Jeslyn Lerh SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Oil prices edged higher amid a volatile trading session on Friday, as supply uncertainty outweighed fears of slower demand from cooling U.S. economic activity. Brent crude futures climbed 31 cents, or 0.3%, at $110.36 a barrel by 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 59 cents, or 0.6%, at $104.86 a barrel. "Looking at the respective futures curves, both Brent and WTI are still heavily in backwardation, suggesting that prompt oil supplies remain as tight as ever," said Jeffrey Halley, a senior Asia Pacific market analyst at OANDA. "Increasing recession fears appear to be prompting a culling of heavy speculative long positioning in both contracts, even as in the real world, energy tightness is as real as ever," Halley added. Oil prices briefly climbed by nearly $1 per barrel in early Asian trade before paring gains and eventually remaining flat during intra-day Asia hours on Friday. For now, fears of slower demand arising from interest rate increases and slower U.S. economic activity capped the price gains. Crude futures were into sell mode after U.S. manufacturing and services PMIs came in well below expectations, along with a downswing in Germany's manufacturing data, said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. "Under these conditions, higher crude oil prices will become super sensitive to any perceived or otherwise increased supply inputs," Innes said, noting signs of Russian crude hitting the oil complex and mounting pressure on OPEC to boost output. OPEC and allied producing countries, including Russia, will most likely stick to a plan for accelerated output increases in August in hopes of easing crude prices and inflation as U.S. President Joe Biden plans to visit Saudi Arabia, sources said. The group known as OPEC+ agreed at its last meeting on June 2 to boost output by 648,000 barrels a day in July, or 7% of global demand, and by the same amount in August, up from the initial plan to add 432,000 barrels per day a month over three months until September. However, the group has struggled to hit the monthly increase targets due to underinvestment in oilfields by some OPEC members and, more recently, losses in Russian output.
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Oil rises in volatile trading amid supply uncertainty
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right , the catch was oil indeed . . .
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Oil round number theory at $100
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By Huw Jones LONDON (Reuters) - Prospects for a firm start on Wall Street helped European shares claw back from a new low for the year on Thursday as investors weighed the risk of hefty interest rate rises tipping economies into recession. Tech-laden Nasdaq futures were up 1%, while S&P500 futures gained 0.7%. Stronger U.S. futures helped shares in Europe, reverse an earlier fall to a 2022 low on the back of dismal economic data in Germany and France. Crude oil also recouped earlier losses but copper remained at 16-month lows as fears of a slowdown cast a pall over the red metal. U.S. Treasury yields remained lower on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in testimony to the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday, underlined the central bank's commitment to cutting inflation at all costs and acknowledged a recession was "certainly a possibility". "Powell said (money markets) are appropriately priced, which means we are going to double the Fed funds rate this year," said Jeremy Schwartz, global chief investment officer at Wisdom Tree Investments. "Coming into this year, we thought you might be able to avoid (recession) this year, but certainly the data has started to come in much more negative," Schwartz said. In a further sign of market caution, JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM) analysts said more investors were turning to cash, surpassing its previous peak in March 2020, when markets went into a tailspin due to COVID-19 lockdowns. The German economy, Europe's largest, suffered a sharp loss of momentum at the end of the second quarter, according to the latest Purchasing Managers' Index, while corresponding figures for France also showed weaker activity. UniCredit bank said the data, which sent euro zone bond yields plunging, was sounding an alarm bell, suggesting that growth momentum might be weakening sooner and more quickly than expected. Prices of copper and crude oil fell on prospects of less demand for fuel and building materials as consumers limit spending. "Copper has always been the lead indicator commodity for economic growth," said Patrick Spencer, vice chairman of equities at Baird Investment Bank. The MSCI all-country share index was down 0.14%, off its low for the day, adding to its slide of more than 20% for the year. "A slowdown is coming and it's really about degree," said Michael Hewson, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets. Spencer said there has been so much damage to stock markets that they had largely discounted a recession already. "If you look at the data, I think at worst what you are looking at is, maybe, a mild recession. I believe the markets are in a bottoming process, and maybe you've only got another 5% downside," Spencer said. CHINA FINTECH Stocks in Asia were mixed, with South Korea down 1.2% while China's blue chips rose 1.7%, and Japan's Nikkei was flat. Chinese tech shares in Hong Kong staged a strong rebound, rising 2.8%, after Chinese President Xi Jinping chaired a top-level meeting that approved a plan for further development of large payment firms and the fintech sector. Concerns about the demand outlook have sapped commodity prices, with oil tumbling on Thursday to the lowest in more than a month. Brent crude was down 0.3% at $111.46 a barrel and U.S. crude declined 0.36% to $105.81 a barrel, both well off their lows of the day. Iron ore was already at six-month lows, having lost more than 20% in recent weeks, while copper struck a 16-month trough. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes was down slightly, at 3.1337%. The two-year yield, which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, eased to 3.0398%, compared with a U.S. close of 3.056%. In foreign exchange markets, the dollar rose 0.340%against a basket of major currencies. The index was up more than 8% this year, reflecting the broad risk-off sentiment and the dollar's Fed-driven yield advantage. Gold was slightly lower, with spot prices traded at $1,827 per ounce, down 0.5% on the day. [GOL/]
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**PivotBoss Pre-Market Video [June 23, 2022]: Narrow Ranges Across the Board** JUNE 23, 2022 — THURSDAY AM The ES and NQ have developed narrow 7-day ranges, which have developed as rounded bottoms in the 60min timeframes. These ranges have developed quite a bit of energy and could see big expansion soon. BTC and ETH continue to develop within super narrow ranges, which could trigger the next wave of selling pressure ahead. Crude Oil gave up the 115 market structure level, and could continue to see weakness to between 95 and 100 before the next bounce occurs.
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oil going right to 100
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Good morning, US stock futures are higher by 0.5%-1% with techs showing some relative strength early. Gold and silver are lower, crude and natgas are a bit lower as well. Weekly jobless claims come out at 8:30 and oil inventory data at 11am. Trade Well.
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