$PEAK

By Ahmad Ghaddar LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices rose on Thursday, extending a cautious rally this week on signs of tight supply while the European Union (EU) wrangles with Hungary over plans to ban imports from Russia, the world's second-largest crude exporter, after it invaded Ukraine. Brent crude futures were up $1.60 cents, or 1.4%, to $115.63 a barrel at 1352 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed $2.33, or 2.1%, to $112.66 a barrel. A bigger-than-expected drawdown in U.S. crude inventories in the week to May 20, following soaring exports, buoyed the market on Wednesday. U.S. refiners picked up the pace of activity, boosting overall capacity use to the highest levels since before the pandemic. [EIA/S] "The fundamental backdrop ... is getting price supportive as the driving season is approaching and will turn even more bullish once the EU sanctions on Russian oil sales are endorsed by all parties involved," PVM Oil's Tamas Varga said. European Council President Charles Michel on Wednesday said he is confident that an agreement can be reached before the council's next meeting on May 30. Germany's economy minister Robert Habeck said the EU can still strike a deal on an oil embargo in the coming days or look to "other instruments" if no agreement is reached. However, Hungary remains a stumbling block to the unanimous support needed for EU sanctions. Hungary is pressing for about 750 million euros ($800 million) to upgrade its refineries and expand a pipeline from Croatia to enable it to switch away from Russian oil. Even without a formal ban, much less Russian oil is available to the market as buyers and trading houses avoid dealing with crude and fuel suppliers from the country. Russia's oil production is expected to decline to 480-500 million tonnes this year from 524 million tonnes in 2021, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, state-run news agency RIA reported on Thursday. OPEC+ is set to stick to an oil production deal agreed last year at its meeting on June 2 and raise July output targets by 432,000 barrels per day, six OPEC+ sources told Reuters, rebuffing Western calls for a faster increase to lower surging prices. There are also other factors that are favouring further upside to oil prices. "Shanghai is preparing to reopen after a two-month lockdown, while the U.S. peak driving season begins with the Memorial Day weekend, which could provide a fillip to oil demand," said Sugandha Sachdeva, vice president of commodities research at Religare Broking, referring to the U.S. holiday on Monday. "All of the variables are pointing to further gains in oil prices going ahead." ($1 = 0.9348 euros)

yup. people who bought at the peak in the 1990s in japan are still down

I lost sight of it until now that I took a peak at it

may happen , the brief console could peak up , before heading down , or there will be plenty of break even , even if it heads down first

Peak platinum for me if you can @Atlas need non bias look

By Noah Browning LONDON (Reuters) -Oil prices gained on Monday with U.S. fuel demand, tight supply and a slightly weaker U.S. dollar supporting the market, as Shanghai prepares to reopen after a two-month lockdown that fuelled worries about a sharp slowdown in growth. Brent crude futures rose $1.06 or 0.9% to $113.61 a barrel by 1240 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures climbed 97 cents, or 0.9%, to $111.25 a barrel, adding to last week's small gains for both contracts. "Oil prices are supported as gasoline markets remain tight amid solid demand heading into the peak U.S. driving season," said SPI Asset Management Managing Partner Stephen Innes. "Refineries are typically in ramp-up mode to feed U.S. drivers' unquenching thirst at the pump." The U.S. peak driving season traditionally begins on Memorial Day weekend at the end of May and ends on Labor Day in September. Analysts said despite fears about soaring fuel prices potentially denting demand, mobility data from TomTom and Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) had climbed in recent weeks, showing more people were on the roads in places like the United States. A weaker U.S. dollar also sent oil higher on Monday, as that makes crude cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Market gains have been capped, however, by concerns about China's efforts to crush COVID-19 with lockdowns, even with Shanghai due to reopen on June 1. Lockdowns in China, the world's top oil importer, have hammered industrial output and construction, prompting moves to prop up the economy, including a bigger-than-expected mortgage rate cut last Friday. "The persistent squeeze in refined petroleum products in the U.S. and ever-present Ukraine/Russia risk underpinned prices, with China slowdown and U.S. recession noise limiting gains," said Jeffrey Halley, a senior market analyst at OANDA. The European Union's inability to reach a final agreement on banning Russian oil following its invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a "special operation", has also stopped oil prices from climbing much higher.

By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Monday as investors kept up selling pressure, cutting bets on further dollar gains from rising U.S. rates, while turning hopeful that loosening lockdowns in China can help global growth and exporters' currencies. U.S equity futures bounced sharply in the Asia session and pulled the region's risk-sensitive currencies along for the ride, even as Asia's stockmarkets wobbled. [MKTS/GLOB] The Aussie rose 0.5% to $0.7091 and has lifted 3.8% in a week and a half. The kiwi rose 0.8% to $0.6458, a three-week high. [AUD/] "It's a reasonably positive start to the week," said National Australia Bank (OTC:NABZY)'s head of foreign exchange strategy, Ray Attrill. "The U.S. dollar looks, for the time being, to be losing upside momentum," he said, tracking a small rally in U.S. bonds that has driven yields lower in recent sessions. [US/] The euro and yen rose, with the Japanese currency up 0.4% to 127.35 per dollar and the euro up 0.2% at $1.0586 following last week's 1.5% gain on the dollar. The U.S. dollar index, up about 16% to a two-decade high over the 12 months to the middle of May, was down about 0.23% at 102.680 and has lost roughly 2% in a week. The safe-haven Swiss franc rose too, holding on to sharp gains made last week - its best since March 2020 - when it climbed from parity on the dollar to about 0.9716 per dollar. "The dollar may be carving out a peak, given Europe’s resilience to the energy shock and potential easing of lockdowns in China," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY) strategist Joe Capurso. "Given the type of policy support, we expect investment to rebound faster than consumer spending," he said. "Investment is mining commodity-intensive (and therefore) very positive for commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, in addition to the yuan." CHINA HOPE Shanghai is edging out of lockdown and an unexpectedly big rate cut in China last week has been taken a signal that authorities are going to provide support to a recovery. The city of 25 million expects to lift its city-wide lockdown and return to more normal life from June 1. The yuan had its best week since late 2020 last week and firmed to 6.6844 per dollar on Monday. [CNY/] The Canadian dollar rose for a third straight week last week and was up about 0.4% to C$1.2800 per dollar on Monday. [CAD/] Sterling leapt nearly 2% last week on the back of stronger-than-expected retail data and markets' broader re-think on whether global central banks are really lagging much behind the Federal Reserve. It was last up 0.4% at $1.2546. [GBP/] Geopolitics are in focus in Asia this week as U.S. President Joe Biden tours the region, promoting greater U.S. economic engagement and seeking to push back against China's influence. He met Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Monday ahead of meetings with the leaders of India and Australia in Tokyo this week. Australia elected a new government on Saturday, though the market reaction was muted as polls had predicted victory for the centre-left Labor Party and it is not expected to shift the direction or pace of interest rate rises. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to lift its benchmark cash rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday. U.S. Federal Reserve meeting minutes are also due on Wednesday. ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 0454 GMT Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid Previous Change Session Euro/Dollar $1.0590 $1.0569 +0.21% +0.00% +1.0595 +1.0559 Dollar/Yen 127.4050 127.9100 -0.45% +0.00% +128.0500 +127.2900 Euro/Yen 134.94 135.03 -0.07% +0.00% +135.4900 +134.6700 Dollar/Swiss 0.9717 0.9743 -0.26% +0.00% +0.9751 +0.9713 Sterling/Dollar 1.2545 1.2496 +0.40% +0.00% +1.2553 +1.2482 Dollar/Canadian 1.2801 1.2846 -0.36% +0.00% +1.2842 +1.2794 Aussie/Dollar 0.7090 0.7052 +0.54% +0.00% +0.7098 +0.7046 NZ Dollar/Dollar 0.6455 0.6410 +0.73% +0.00% +0.6467 +0.6400 All spots Tokyo spots Europe spots Volatilities Tokyo Forex market info from BOJ

By Geoffrey Smith Investing.com -- There were fresh signs that the U.S. economy is starting to cool down on Thursday, as lay-offs hit a 10-week high and a closely watched survey of manufacturing activity took a sharp turn for the worse. Initial jobless claims rose to 218,000 from a downwardly revised 197,000 last week - ahead of forecasts and the highest weekly number since early March. Even so, the numbers are around the level last seen at the 2019 peak of the mini-boom created by then-President Donald Trump's tax cuts. Continuing claims, meanwhile, are still at their lowest level in over 50 years, falling again last week to 1.317 million. The previous week's numbers were also revised down. The low number of continuing claims are consistent with other figures showing a historically high ratio of vacancies to unemployed, suggesting that the labor market is still red hot despite the start of Federal Reserve attempts to cool it with interest rate hikes. The real economy is, however, showing clearer signs of slowing down, with department store chain Kohl's (NYSE:KSS) and the specialty apparel retailer Children’s Place (NASDAQ:PLCE) both reporting a sharp weakening in sales from March onwards on Thursday. In manufacturing, meanwhile, the main index of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's monthly survey fell to 2.6, its lowest since June 2020 and a much sharper drop than expected from last month's 17.6. Economists had expected a gentle decline to 16.0. The sub-indices for capital expenditures and employment both fell markedly, while one positive element was that the sub-index for prices paid also came off its record high. New orders also held up at high levels. While below expectations, the data hit a market that is already well advanced in the process of pricing in a sharp economic slowdown in the latter half of this year. Stock futures pared their losses to trade down less than 1% by 9:15 AM ET, having been down by considerably more before the release. (CORRECTION: an earlier version of this story misstated the development of the new orders sub-index)

had my smart phone near , took at peak at 9 , oh well . . .

By Swati Verma (Reuters) - Gold fell more than 1% to its lowest in 3-1/2 months on Monday as elevated bond yields and overall strength in the dollar dampened bullion demand, even as riskier assets dropped after grim China economic data. A stronger dollar makes gold expensive for overseas buyers, while higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield bullion. Spot gold was down 0.2% to $1,807.64 per ounce as of 1311 GMT, after earlier hitting its lowest since Jan. 31 at $1,786.60. U.S. gold futures were little changed at $1,808.10. "Spot gold may not stray far from $1,800, suppressed by the might of King Dollar and elevated Treasury yields, while supported by the looming prospects of a recession," said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity. Gold prices are down over 13% since scaling a near-record peak of $2,069.89 an ounce in March. [USD/] [US/] "Having now fallen through the psychologically important threshold of $1,800 an ounce and with the hawkish monetary policy more likely to strengthen than weaken, it is hard to see where gold can now find a short-term foothold," Rupert Rowling, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said in a note. The dollar consolidated near a two-decade peak while risk appetite took a hit after weak economic data from China highlighted fears about a slowdown. [MKTS/GLOB] Silver has found itself caught up in the broader sell-off in equities and gold, being punished for being an industrial metal at a time when growth forecasts are being trimmed, Rowling added. Spot silver gained 0.9% to $21.26 per ounce, after slumping to its lowest since July 2020 on Friday. Platinum rose 0.2% to $940.16 and palladium was up 1.2% to $1,966.80. Johnson Matthey (LON:JMAT) said a surplus in the platinum market should shrink this year and the palladium markets are likely to move back into deficit.

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian share markets stumbled on Monday and oil prices slid after shockingly weak data from China underlined the deep damage lockdowns are doing to the world's second-largest economy. China's April retail sales plunged 11.1% on the year, almost twice the fall forecast, while industrial output dropped 2.9% when analysts had looked for a slight increase. "The data paint a picture of a stalling economy and one in need of more aggressive stimulus and a rapid easing of COVID restrictions, neither of which are likely to be forthcoming anytime soon," said Mitul Kotecha, head of emerging markets strategy at TD Securities. "China's weaker growth trajectory will add to pressure on its markets and fuel a further worsening in global economic prospects, weighing on risk assets. We expect further CNY depreciation." In Europe, EUROSTOXX 50 and FTSE futures both eased 0.3%. S&P 500 stock futures lost early gains to drop 0.6%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.5%. Both are far from last year's highs, with the S&P having fallen for six straight weeks. China's central bank had also disappointed those hoping for a rate easing, though on Sunday Beijing did allow a further cut in mortgage loan interest rates for some home buyers. Monday's data overshadowed news that Shanghai aimed to reopen broadly and allow normal life to resume from June 1. Chinese blue chips shed 0.8% in reaction, while commodity currencies took a knock led by the Australian dollar which is often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost early gains to stand flat, following a slide of 2.7% last week, when it hit a two-year low. Japan's Nikkei clung to gains of 0.5%, having lost 2.1% last week even as a weak yen offered some support to exporters. Sky-high inflation and rising interest rates drove U.S. consumer confidence sink to an 11-year low in early May and raised the stakes for April retail sales due on Tuesday. DOWNGRADING GROWTH A hyper-hawkish Federal Reserve has driven a sharp tightening in financial conditions, which led Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) to cut its 2022 GDP growth forecast to 2.4%, from 2.6%. Growth in 2023 is now seen at 1.6% on an annual basis, down from 2.2%. "Our financial conditions index has tightened by over 100 basis points, which should create a drag on GDP growth of about 1pp," said Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius. "We expect that the recent tightening in financial conditions will persist, in part because we think the Fed will deliver on what is priced." Futures imply 50 basis-point hikes in both June and July and rates between 2.5-3.0% by year end, from the current 0.75-1.0%. Fears that the tightening will lead to recession spurred a rally in bonds last week, which saw 10-year yields drop 21 basis points from peaks of 3.20%. Early Monday, yields were easing again to reach 2.91%. The pullback saw the dollar come off a two-decade top, though not by much. The dollar index was last at 104.560, and within spitting distance of the 105.010 peak. The euro stood at $1.0403, having got as low as $1.0348 last week. The dollar did lose ground on the yen, which seemed to get a safe-haven bid in the wake of the China data, slipping to 129.02 yen. In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin was last up 2% at $30,354, having touched its lowest since December 2020 last week following the collapse of TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin. In commodity markets, gold was pressured by high yields and a strong dollar and was last at $1,809 an ounce having shed 3.8% last week. Oil prices reversed course as the dire Chinese data rekindled worries about demand. Brent lost $2.31 to $109.24, while U.S. crude shed $2.14 to $108.35.

By Andrew Galbraith SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Asian shares bounced on Friday, but were set for a second straight weekly loss and remained near June 2020 lows, while the dollar hovered near 20-year highs as investors digested worries about strong inflation and tightening central bank policy. Those concerns ultimately overcame hopes on Wall Street that high inflation might be peaking, pushing the S&P 500 close to confirming a bear market on Thursday, at nearly 20% off its January all-time high. [.N] In an interview later in the day, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the battle to control inflation would "include some pain". And he repeated his expectation of half-percentage-point interest rate rises at each of the Fed's next two policy meetings, while pledging that "we're prepared to do more". After sharp losses a day earlier, Asian shares rallied on Friday. European equities were also set for a firmer open, with pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.08%, German DAX futures up 0.93% and FTSE futures gaining 0.98%. In afternoon trade, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up around 1.8% from Thursday's 22-month closing low, trimming its losses for the week to less than 3%. Australian shares gained 1.93%, while Japan's Nikkei stock index jumped 2.64%. In China, the blue-chip CSI300 index was up 0.61% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.22%. "We had some pretty big moves yesterday, and when you see those big moves it's only natural to get some retracement, especially since it's Friday heading into the weekend. There's not really a new narrative that's come through, " said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "I think there comes that point where you run out of sellers. I'm not really certain that this is going to be a buying rally at the moment, possibly a short-covering rally ahead of the weekend." The moves higher in equities were mirrored in slipping U.S. Treasuries, with the benchmark U.S. 10-year yield edging up to 2.8895% from a close of 2.817% on Thursday. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield was at 2.5924%, up from a close of 2.522%. "Within the shape of the U.S. Treasury curve we are not seeing any particularly fresh recession/slowdown signal, just the same consistent marked slowing earmarked for H2 2023," Alan Ruskin, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn), said in a note. The U.S. dollar remained near 20-year highs against a basket of currencies, supported by safe haven demand as Russia bristled over Finland's plan to apply for NATO membership, with Sweden potentially following suit. Moscow called Finland's announcement hostile and threatened retaliation, including unspecified "military-technical" measures. The dollar index, which tracks it against a group of currencies of other major trading partners, edged down about 0.1% to 104.65. But the greenback was stronger against the yen, which traded at 128.62 per dollar after hitting a two-week peak of 127.5 hit overnight. The European single currency was 0.1% firmer at $1.0389 after trading lower earlier in the day. Cryptocurrency bitcoin also turned higher, cracking through $30,000 after the collapse of TerraUSD, a so-called stablecoin, drove it to a 16-month low of around $25,400 on Thursday. In commodities markets, oil prices were higher against the backdrop of a pending European Union ban on Russian oil, but were still set for their first weekly loss in three weeks, hit by concerns over inflation and China's COVID lockdowns slowing global growth. U.S. crude ticked up 1.32% to $107.53 a barrel, and global benchmark Brent crude was up 1.6% at $109.17 per barrel. Spot gold, which had been driven to a three-month low by the soaring dollar, was up 0.16 % at $1,824.61 per ounce. [GOL/]

By Marc Jones LONDON (Reuters) - Shares sank to a 1-1/2 year low on Thursday and the dollar hit its highest in two decades, as fears mounted that fast-rising inflation will drive interest rates higher and bring the global economy to a standstill. Those nerves and a German warning that Russia was now using energy supplies as a "weapon" yanked Europe's top markets down 2% (EU) and left MSCI's index of world shares nearly 20% lower for the year. The global growth-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars fell about 0.8% to almost two-year lows. The Chinese yuan slid to a 19-month trough while Europe's worries shoved the euro to its lowest since early 2017.. Nearly all the main volatility gauges were signalling danger. Bitcoin was caught in the fire-sale of risky crypto assets as it fell another 8% to $26,570, having been near $40,000 just a week ago and almost $70,000 last November. "We have had big moves," UBS's UK Chief Investment Officer Caroline Simmons, said referring as well to bond markets and economic expectations. "And when the market falls it does tend to fall quite fast." Tensions were stoked again as Finland confirmed it would apply to join NATO "without delay" in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a war that has already had a major economic effect by driving up global energy and food prices. Data on Wednesday had showed U.S. inflation running persistently hot. Headline consumer prices rose 8.3% in April year-on-year, fractionally slower than the 8.5% pace of March, but still above economists' forecasts for 8.1%. U.S. markets had whipsawed after the news, closing sharply lower as Fed rate hike worries took hold again. Futures prices were pointing to another round of 0.2%-0.7% falls for the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones Industrial later. [.N] The near 20% drop in MSCI's world stocks index since January is its worst start to a year in recent memory. "We're now very much embedded with at least two further (U.S.) hikes of 50 basis points on the agenda," said Damian Rooney, director of institutional sales at Argonaut in Perth. "I think we probably were delusional six months ago with the rise of U.S. equities on hopes and prayers and the madness of the meme stocks," he added. SELL IN MAY The main pan-Asia Pacific indexes closed down 2.5% at a 22-month low overnight. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.8%, while Indonesian shares and Hong Kong property stocks both slumped more than 3%, as did South Africa's bourse later. (T) The guaranteed returns of bond markets meant U.S. Treasuries were bid, especially at the long end, flattening the yield curve as investors braced for near-term hikes to hurt long-run growth - an outcome that would most likely slow or even reverse rate hikes. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which moves inversely to prices, dropped to 2.82% on Thursday from over 3% at the start of the week, while Germany's 10-year yield, the benchmark for Europe, fell as much as 15 bps to 0.85%, its lowest in nearly two weeks. "I think a lot of it is catch up from what happened yesterday, and also there's still a lot of negative sentiment in the U.S. Treasury curve," said Lyn Graham-Taylor, senior rates strategist at Rabobank. The prospect of the fastest hike in Fed rates in decades is driving up the U.S. dollar and taking the heaviest toll on riskier assets that shot up through two years of pandemic-era stimulus and low-rate lending. The Nasdaq is down nearly 8% in May so far and more than 25% this year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech index slid 1.5% on Thursday and is off more than 30% this year. Cryptocurrency markets are also melting down, with the collapse of the so-called stablecoin TerraUSD highlighting the turmoil as well as the selling in bitcoin and next-biggest-crypto, ether. A weakening growth picture outside the United States is battering investor confidence, too, as war in Ukraine threatens an energy crisis in Europe and lengthening COVID-19 lockdowns in China throw another spanner into supply chain chaos. Nomura estimated this week that 41 Chinese cities are in full or partial lockdowns, making up 30% of the country's GDP. Heavyweight property developer Sunac said it missed a bond interest payment and will miss more as China's real estate sector remains in the grip of a credit crunch. The yuan fell to a 19-month low of 6.7631 and has dropped almost 6% in under a month. [CNY/] The Australian dollar fell 0.8% to a near two-year low of $0.6879. The kiwi slid by even more to $0.6240. The euro drooped below $1.04 and the yen to 128.5 which kept the dollar index at a two-decade peak. Sterling was at a two-year low of just under $1.22 as well as economic data there caused worries and concerns grew that Britain's Brexit deal with the EU was in danger of unravelling again due to the same old problem of Northern Ireland's border. In commodity trade, oil wound back a bit of Wednesday's surge on growth worries. Brent crude futures fell 2.3% to $104.93 a barrel, while highly growth-sensitive metals copper and tin slumped over 3.5% and 9% respectively. That marked copper's lowest level since October. [MET/L]

the idea more is that once you reach peak neg gamma the hedges are all on, makers positioned super bearish, then lower or higher from there hedges have to come off

By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stocks fell to an almost two-year low and the dollar rose to multi-year highs on Thursday as data showed U.S. inflation persistently hot, deepening investor worries about the economic toll of aggressive interest rate hikes to tame it. U.S. markets whipsawed after the news, then closed sharply lower. S&P 500 futures gave up early gains to fall 0.2% in the Asia session. European futures also fell, with EuroSTOXX 50 futures down 2% and FTSE futures down 1.6%. Bitcoin, leading a fire-sale of risky assets as rate hikes gather steam, fell 7% to $26,970. It was near $40,000 a week ago and is 60% beneath its peak six months ago. The growth-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars fell about 0.8% to almost two-year lows. The Chinese yuan slid to a 19-month trough. Headline U.S. consumer prices rose 8.3% for the 12 months to April, slower than the 8.5% pace of a month earlier, but higher than market forecasts for 8.1%. Traders said it underscored concern that rates will rise quickly in response. "We're now very much embedded with at least two further (U.S.) hikes of 50 basis points on the agenda. For equity markets that really is the end of free money," said Damian Rooney, director of institutional sales at Argonaut in Perth. "I think we probably were delusional six months ago with the rise of U.S. equities on hopes and prayers and the madness of the meme stocks, and suddenly were going a little bit back to what is reality," he said. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 2% to a 22-month low. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.7%. Treasuries were steady in Asia, but selling at the short end and a rally at the longer end has flattened the yield curve as investors brace for near-term hikes to hurt long-run growth. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell six basis points (bps) overnight and dropped a further 2.6 bps in Tokyo trade to 2.8967%. The gap between two-year and 10-year yields narrowed 3.5 bps. "There should be a tipping point in how far the Fed can be pressed before odds clearly point towards a hard landing," said NatWest Markets' U.S. rates strategist Jan Nevruzi. SELL IN MAY The rates outlook is driving up the U.S. dollar and taking the heaviest toll on riskier assets that shot up through two years of stimulus and low-rate lending. The Nasdaq is down nearly 8% in May so far and more than 25% this year. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech index slid 1.5% on Thursday and is off more than 30% this year. Cryptocurrency markets are also melting down, with the collapse of the so-called stablecoin TerraUSD highlighting the turmoil as well as the selling in bitcoin and next-biggest-crypto, ether. A weakening growth picture outside the United States is battering investor confidence, too, as war in Ukraine threatens an energy crisis in Europe and lengthening COVID-19 lockdowns in China throw another spanner into supply chain chaos. Nomura estimated this week that 41 Chinese cities are in full or partial lockdowns, making up 30% of the country's GDP. Property developer Sunac China said it missed a bond interest payment and will miss more as China's real estate sector remains in the grip of a credit crunch. The yuan fell to a 19-month low of 6.7631 and has dropped almost 6% in under a month. The Australian dollar fell 0.8% to a near two-year low of $0.6879. The kiwi slid by a similar margin to $0.6240, though the euro and yen held steady to keep the dollar index just shy of a two-decade peak. Sterling was at a two-year low of $1.2204. In commodity trade, oil wound back a bit of Wednesday's surge as growth worries dampened fear of gas supply disruptions in Europe. Brent crude futures fell 1.3% to $106.90 a barrel. British activity and growth data is due later in the day.

was like peak buy all the bullshit time

Past-Peak Inflation Might Be Misleading as Price Pressures Continue to Mount https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/05/10/past-peak-inflation-might-be-misleading-as-price-pressures-continue-to-mount/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines

By Geoffrey Smith Investing.com -- U.S. stock markets opened sharply higher on Tuesday, recovering around half the losses they made on Monday as fears of a global economic slowdown swept through world markets. By 9:36 AM ET (1336 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 417 points, or 1.3%, at 32,663 points. The S&P 500 was up 1.4% and the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.8%. Aside from the technical element of the rebound, stocks were supported by the absence of any fresh shocks from the first two appearances of the day by Federal Reserve officials, while two big acquisitions acted as a reminder that companies with strong balance sheets are able to thrive in the current environment - and that the recent selloff may have created some valuable buying opportunities. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) stock rose 2.1% after it agreed to buy smaller rival Biohaven (NYSE:BHVN) for $11.8 billion, a premium of some 70% to Monday's close. Meanwhile, Duke Realty (NYSE:DRE) rose 15% after Prologis (NYSE:PLD) offered to buy it in an all-stock deal valuing it at just under $24 billion. Prologis stock rose 0.4%. New York Fed President John Williams gave no indication of wanting to raise interest rates faster than the Fed has already indicated and said he expected a "soft landing" for the economy with only a small rise in unemployment and around 2% gross domestic product growth this year. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester was also quoted by newswires as downplaying the risk of a sharp rise in unemployment, although she repeated that rates will have to rise above their 'neutral' level to bring inflation down to its 2% target. It wasn't all plain sailing, however. Peloton (NASDAQ:PTON) stock slumped another 20% to a new all-time low after reporting it lost over $750 million in the last three months, forcing it to borrow an equal amount to shore up its balance sheet while the hoped-for turnaround materializes. The stock was already down 90% from its peak and is now down 60% from its IPO price less than three years ago. Another fallen angel, AI-focused lender Upstart (NASDAQ:UPST), fell 56% as it was forced to slash its guidance for the coming year. Also falling heavily was Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX), which slumped 12.4% after the company warned of low take-up for its COVID-19 vaccine from the low-income countries that it had targeted. It still upheld its previous guidance for 2022. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock eked out a modest 2% gain after falling some 8% on Monday, held back by news that it has had to cut down production at its Shanghai factory again to barely 10% of capacity. Shanghai's lockdown, now in its eighth week in one form or another, has left the factory short of essential components.

By Anshuman Daga SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian equities slipped to the lowest in nearly two years on Tuesday, before trimming losses, as investors fretted about the toxic cocktail of rising interest rates and weaker economic growth. Sentiment was supported by gains in U.S. stock futures, which turned positive after declining earlier. S&P 500 stock futures and Dow Jones futures both rose 0.6%, while Nasdaq futures gained 1.3%. Growing fears of recession and a slowdown in China dragged on commodity-linked currencies and oil prices, though safety flows kept the dollar near 20-year highs. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan traded down 0.8% in early afternoon but pared sharp losses struck earlier. The benchmark had fallen as much as 2.3% to 515.7, sliding for a seventh straight session and extending losses to 18% so far this year. "Chinese growth is facing significant headwinds, whether you look at official or private sector Purchasing Managers' Index," said Song Seng Wun, an economist at CIMB Private Banking. "Softening global growth is the persistent wall of worry for markets as investors look beyond the next 3-6 months. The view on growth momentum seems to be that revenge spending after the pandemic may be affected by higher borrowing costs," he said. Across Asia, share indexes recovered from the day's losses. The Nikkei lost 0.4%, Australian shares shed 1.1%, Korean stocks lost 0.5% and Taiwan equities edged up 0.1%. MSCI's Asian benchmark fell to the lowest since early July 2020. Chinese equities are the worst performers among major markets so far this year, recording losses of between 21 and 25%. Singapore and Indonesian stock indexes have, however, remained steady. Growth worries resurfaced after central banks in the United States, Britain and Australia raised interest rates last week and investors girded for more tightening as policymakers fight soaring inflation. Hong Kong's benchmark share index returned from a one-day holiday sharply lower on Tuesday and slumped more than 4% before halving losses. On Monday, Shanghai and Beijing tightened COVID-19 curbs which have already taken a heavy toll on the world's second-largest economy. China's export growth slowed to its weakest in almost two years, data showed, as the central bank pledged to step up support for the slowing economy Overnight, U.S. stocks extended Friday's bruising sell-off as investors rushed to protect themselves against the prospect of a weakening economy. [.N] "The idea of a benign and gentle tightening cycle has evaporated," ANZ analysts said in a report. "The reality is that the Fed cannot control the supply side of the economy in the short-run, so as long as key indicators like the labour force participation rate stay low and Chinese exports slow, the risk to inflation, and therefore interest rates, lies to the upside," ANZ said. Oil prices retreated again on demand worries as coronavirus lockdowns in China, the top oil importer, continued. Brent crude fell 0.9% to $105 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1% to $102 a barrel, adding to a 6% slump in the previous session. Both contracts are still up about 35% so far this year. Commodity-linked currencies including the Australian and Canadian currencies took a beating as oil prices fell. The Australian dollar dropped as low as $0.6920, its weakest since July 2020, having fallen 1.7% overnight. Lower oil prices also hit the Canadian dollar, which eased to C$1.3037 per dollar, its weakest since November 2020. The dollar index eased 0.2% to 103.5, having risen as high as 104.19 overnight, a fresh 20-year peak. U.S. Treasury yields, which have climbed sharply on expectations of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve, took a breather after Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic pushed back on suggestions of a massive 75 basis point rate hike at the Fed's next meeting.

Powell said go f yourselfs he and his cohorts unloaded their bags at the peak btfd if you want

ummm ... i was just looking at US oil and gas production, GAS AT $9 this am, not sure how much longer that can last, you would think oil frackers would be back in town with oil at $100+, but oil prodiuction still about 1.2 mill barrels below the peak in Mar 2020

By Alun John HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares tumbled to their lowest in seven weeks on Friday and the dollar stood tall as investors globally shunned riskier assets over fears that higher U.S. interest rates and China's reinforcement of its zero-COVID policy could hit growth hard. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 2.65% on Friday and fell to its lowest level since March 16, the day when Chinese vice premier Liu He boosted shares by pledging to support markets and the economy. The benchmark is down 3.8% from last Friday's close, which would be its worst week since mid-March. Japan's Nikkei bucked the trend, rising 0.56% on its return from a three-day holiday. Chinese blue chips shed 2%, the Hong Kong benchmark lost 3.44%, and China's yuan tumbled to an 18-month low in both onshore and offshore markets. Dickie Wong, director of research at Hong Kong brokerage Kingston Securities, attributed the falls to the Wall Street plunge overnight amid worries about aggressive U.S rate hikes, as well as fears about the health of the Chinese economy. China will fight any comments and actions that distort, doubt or deny the country's COVID-19 response policy, state television reported on Thursday, after a meeting of the country's highest decision-making body. Investors said that appeared to rule out any easing in the zero-COVID policy, which is slowing Chinese economic growth and snarling global supply chains. "The silver lining is the expectation that new Chinese fiscal measures could come out over the weekend," Wong said. "That's the only thing giving Asian markets some support at their current low valuations." Overnight, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both fell more than 3%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 4.99% in its biggest single-day plunge since June 2020. [.N] Things looked less dire in Europe, where regional share futures fell 0.25% and FTSE futures lost 0.27%. U.S. futures were flat. "Risks remain elevated for a policy mistake – either by (the Fed) not tightening quickly enough to combat inflation or being overly hawkish, resulting in the end of the current business cycle," said David Chao, global market strategist for APAC ex-Japan at Invesco. U.S. payroll data due later on Friday will help traders gauge how hot the economy is running. The market is pricing in an 87% chance of a monster 75 basis point rate hike from the Fed at its meeting in June, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. That's even after the Fed raised rates by 50 basis points this week and Chair Jerome Powell ruled out a 75 basis point hike. U.S. yields are rising on expectations of a fast pace of rate hikes. The yield on U.S. 10-year notes was last 3.065% after crossing 3.1% overnight for the first time since November 2018. [US/] As investors moved towards less risky assets, the dollar index was at 103.75 on Friday, having hit a fresh 20-year peak of 103.94 overnight supported by expectations the U.S. will hike interest rates faster than other central banks. (FRX) The dollar index is 0.43% higher this week, its fifth consecutive week of gains. Sterling was trading around its lowest level against the dollar in nearly two years after falling 2.2% on Thursday. The Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points as expected, but two policy makers expressed caution about rushing into future rate hikes. Bitcoin, one of the risk-friendliest assets, tumbled 8% overnight, hitting a two-and-a-half-month low. It was last trading around $36,500. Oil prices shrugged off concerns about global economic growth as worries about tightening supply underpinned prices ahead of the European Union's impending embargo on Russian oil. Brent futures rose 0.6% to $111.57 a barrel. U.S. crude rose 0.64 % to $108.95 a barrel. [O/R] Gold was flat at $1876.4 an ounce. [GOL/]

need a sign from inflation read out that peak is in

i think we getting near peak interest rates

I think 50 is its peak

/NQ might bounce that's why sold short plus sold my $QQQ Ps from yesterday peak

still holding few SPY Ps from yesterday peak

$TDOC $300 peak to

By Tom Westbrook SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Global stocks steadied on Thursday, taking comfort from company earnings, while a collapse in the yen after Japan doubled down on anchoring bond yields drove the dollar toward its highest levels in decades. The yen dropped to a 20-year low and breached the 130-to-the-dollar level after the Bank of Japan vowed to buy unlimited amounts of 10-year bonds daily to defend its yield target. The yen was last at 130.11 per dollar. The BOJ's move was in stark contrast with investors' conviction that U.S. interest rates are about to start going up fast and it jolted the dollar higher across Asia and against majors. [FRX/] The U.S. dollar index hit a five-year high of 103.55 and is not far from its 2017 peak of 103.82. An energy crisis in Europe hasn't helped the common currency, either, and the euro was testing major support at $1.05. The dollar also made a two-month high on the Aussie an 18-month high on the yuan, a 21-month high on the kiwi and an almost two-year top on the Swiss franc. "The most important theme (in markets) are the monetary policy differences between the U.S. and the rest of the world, especially Asia," said Kiyong Seong, lead Asia macro strategist at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) in Hong Kong. "Even though the market already anticipated the BOJ would remain accommodative, finding out again has led to an exaggerated move," he said. In equities, Nasdaq 100 futures were up 1.4% and S&P 500 futures rose 0.8% after Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) owner Meta beat Wall Street forecasts and said it had eked out user growth, sending its shares up almost 20% after hours. A rally in Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) shares through Wednesday had also helped Wall Street indexes to a steady close. [.N] MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6%, led by a 1% bounce in Australia's commodity-heavy bourse. (AX) Standard Chartered (OTC:SCBFF) also turned in a forecast-beating 6% rise in first-quarter profit on Thursday, sending its Hong Kong-listed shares up more than 12%. Japan's Nikkei rose 1.5% and was heading for its best day in two weeks as investors cheered the weaker currency and Bank of Japan's vows of policy support. Japanese government bonds had their best rally in a month. [JP/] "The BOJ is not promoting a weak yen, but their policy is in a way supporting a weak yen," said Bart Wakabayashi, branch manager at State Street (NYSE:STT) Bank in Tokyo. "I think most people would have agreed 130 is in play, but now it's a foregone conclusion." European futures rose 0.5% and FTSE futures rose 0.3%. FED UP Looming over markets is uncertainty about the economic fallout of war in Ukraine, highlighted by Russia's halt on gas supply to Poland and Bulgaria on Wednesday, and lingering lockdowns in China which are sharply curbing activity. Set against that is investors conviction that U.S. rates are rising and that next week's Federal Reserve meeting will bring the first of several consecutive 50-basis-point hikes. U.S. growth data, due later in the day, may temper that path a little bit if - as trade figures on Wednesday suggested - it is wavering, but a major focus is on consumers and whether they can keep company earnings ticking over even as rates go up. "Consumers are still, for now, taking higher prices in their stride. It's enough cheer for (stock) markets," said Seng Wun Song, an economist at CIMB Private Bank in Singapore. "It's all about whether consumers are confident enough to carry on." Treasuries were steady in the Asia session, nursing small Wednesday losses, with two-year yields at 2.5970% and benchmark 10-year yields at 2.8301%. [US/] Oil wobbled lower on Chinese demand concerns, and Brent crude futures were last down 1.5% at #103.71 a barrel.[O/R] Palm oil touched a seven-week high after major producer Indonesia widened its export ban.

We've all been there before > @bunnytoad69 said: obviously i would have preferred to sell it for $8000 when it was at its peak

obviously i would have preferred to sell it for $8000 when it was at its peak

i did sell a JAN2023 $200 call against it for $1500 in peak December, so it became mostly breakeven.

who ever did not liquudate their positions , after getting near peak again , is going to be surprised , we should not be seeing 2k for many years if it hits 1800

hahaha > @Schmidy23 said: @dros peak capital markets when chik fila goes public lol

@dros peak capital markets when chik fila goes public lol

oh wow Powell at his peak ha

By Marc Jones and Pete Schroeder LONDON/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. stocks surged higher Thursday, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and new jobless data, while bond markets continued to sell off as investors bet on aggressive global interest rate hikes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.88% in early trading, while the S&P 500 jumped 1.12% and the Nasdaq Composite shrugged off Wednesday losses to advance 1.65%. The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 45 nations, rose 0.82%. Upbeat Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) earnings and airline forecasts of a return to profitability this quarter helped to ease the stress of Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX)'s slump this week after it said it lost subscribers for the first time in a decade. [.N] Markets got another boost when the Labor Department reported the number of Americans seeking new jobless benefits fell again, with unemployment rolls at their lowest level in 52 years in the first week of April. "While jobless claims came in a bit higher than expected, they’re still near historically low levels which illustrates the exceptionally strong demand for labor in the U.S.," said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*TRADE. Investors were otherwise back to focusing on the Ukraine war and how fast interest rates will have to rise around the world as the conflict adds to global inflationary pressures. With European Central Bank and Federal Reserve chiefs Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell speaking on an International Monetary Fund panel later, Germany's 10-year Bund yields were heading back towards a seven-year peak, U.S. Treasuries neared 2.9% again, while Italy's yields hit their highest since March 2020's initial COVID panic.. [GVD/EUR] Markets are expecting at least another half-percentage-point rate hike from the U.S. Fed next month while one ECB policymaker said on Wednesday it might start hiking euro zone rates as early as July. Citi's Global Markets Strategist Matt King said the pressure for markets was also coming from quantitative tightening, or QT - the process of years of frantic central bank money-printing going into reverse. That process is just about to start and over the next year he estimates it will see around half a trillion dollars being sucked out of the global financial system by the Fed alone. "Don't look at the real yields, look at the liquidity flow," King said, adding a rough calculation was that $1 trillion of QT would knock global stocks down by around 10%. "These flows are just too big for markets to anticipate ahead of time," he said. In the currency markets, the euro rose as much as 0.6% to above $1.09 again, and also chalked up gains versus the yen, Swiss franc and Norwegian crown. [/FRX] The dollar, meanwhile, gained 0.2% on the yen which has hit 20-year lows in recent days, hurt by the Bank of Japan's promise to keep government bond yields pinned down despite rises elsewhere around the world. "The euro is all about ECB drumbeat for a July hike," said Kenneth Broux, an FX strategist at Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY) in London. Oil, meanwhile, firmed in choppy commodity trading as concerns about supply due to a potential European Union ban on Russian oil came to the fore. Russian forces stepped up their attacks in eastern Ukraine on Thursday. Brent crude futures rose 1.54% to $108.44 a barrel, and U.S. crude was last up 1.7% at $103.93 per barrel. [O/R]

$dar Already peak out nice find by Chris list

By Huw Jones LONDON (Reuters) - Stocks edged higher on Wednesday, but gains were capped by questions over how far real bond yields will rise as investors sifted through disappointing Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) earnings and war continued in Ukraine. The STOXX index of 600 European companies gained 0.4% to 458.17 points. The MSCI all country stock index was 0.2% firmer. Investors kept a wary eye on the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), whose yields briefly broke above negative territory on Tuesday for the first time since March 2020. A rise in real yields poses a fresh headwind for risky assets such as stocks, especially big tech firms which report earnings next week, now more closely scrutinised after Netflix shares sank on Tuesday evening after news it was losing subscribers. Tech-heavy Nasdaq futures were down 0.6 percent, with S&P500 futures shedding 0.3% "You are going to have to see real yields in much more positive territory before they make stock markets less attractive," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. "The bigger question the markets are wrestling with at the moment is has inflation peaked? If inflation has peaked, then maybe it's a good time to buy bonds again, which is why we are seeing so much uncertainty as to the future direction of the stock markets," Hewson said. The dollar climbed to a fresh two-decade peak to the yen, buoyed as the Bank of Japan stepped into the market again to defend its ultra low interest rate policy. Data is beginning to emerge from the International Monetary Fund this week on how much the two-month old war in Ukraine is hitting the global economy. The U.S. Federal Reserve issues its "Beige Book" of economic conditions from late February to early April on Wednesday. "We expect the pace of economic activity eased slightly to a modest pace," UniCredit analysts said in a note. In Europe, German producer prices hit a record high amid war in Ukraine. In an election which has rattled French bonds, President Emmanuel Macron and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will face each other in a televised debate on Wednesday evening. Macron, however, appears to be pulling ahead of Le Pen in the polls ahead of Sunday's final round in the election. ASIA SHARES RISE MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.3%, its first positive session in a week. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.8%, like other markets in the region tracking Tuesday's gains on Wall Street where the three main benchmarks had their best days in over a month, helped by several strong earnings results. The Nasdaq closed up 2.2%. China bucked the regional trend as Chinese blue chips shed 1.5% after the central bank kept its benchmark lending rates unchanged, despite frequent government pledges to support a slowing economy hit by the worst COVID-19 outbreak in two years. That decision in contrast helped the Chinese yuan recover after hitting its lowest since October in early trade. "Investors were looking for stimulus from China but the PBOC didn't deliver today," said Carlos Casanova. "Markets inevitably are going to interpret that in a negative way with the lockdowns extending into April and beyond, meaning the worst months for economic data are ahead of us." The yield on a highly -traded contract of China's 10-year government bond fell below U.S. 10-year Treasury yield for the first time since 2010 on earlier this month, and Chinese 10 year yields were last around 2.85%. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were within a whisker of 3% on Wednesday - though were little changed on the day. Yield differentials are also a factor for Japan, where the central bank on Wednesday offered to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGB) at 0.25%, in its third move since February to defend its yield target. This yield curve control has sent the yen to 20-year lows against the dollar, but the dollar retreated 0.2% on the yen on Wednesday amid some nerves that intervention - verbal or otherwise - from Japanese authorities could drive a bounce. Oil prices rebounded from sharp losses in the previous session as concerns about tighter supplies from Russia and Libya dominated. Brent crude futures rose 1.2% to $108.55 a barrel. Spot gold fell 0.4% to its lowest in a week dragged down by higher yields.

By Samuel Indyk and Elizabeth Howcroft LONDON (Reuters) - European shares were lower on Tuesday, while yields on 10-year U.S. inflation-linked bonds were close to turning positive for the first time in two years, as the prospect of aggressive Fed tightening to rein in inflation kept investors on edge. Investors were also preparing for the next barrage of company earnings that will help them assess the impact of the Ukraine war and a spike in inflation. Heineken (OTC:HEINY), Nestle and Renault (EPA:RENA) report out of Europe this week. Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) are scheduled to report this week from the United States. Yields on 10-year U.S. inflation linked bonds held near the two-year highs they reached on Monday, and are within touching distance of turning positive for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. Equity investors had been reassured by the fact that, when stripping out the effects of inflation, bond yields had been deep in negative territory, but that looks set to end. Title: US dividend yield vs UST, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ At 1035 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 was down 1.1%, Germany's DAX was down 0.9% and Britain's FTSE 100 was 0.4% lower - although analysts warned about over interpreting moves given lower liquidity over the long Easter weekend. The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 50 countries, was 0.3% lower. S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% and Nasdaq futures declined 0.4%. The Federal Reserve looks all but certain to raise its interest rate by 50 basis points when it meets next month and a 75 basis point hike hasn't been ruled out. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard repeated his case for raising rates to 3.5% by the year-end on Monday, adding a 75 basis point hike should not be discounted, although this was not his base case. "I think that's a good reminder for markets that that is actually possible but he is known for his hawkish views so you do have to take that into account as well," said Baylee Wakefield, multi asset portfolio manager at Aviva (LON:AV) Investors. Wakefield added the latest developments in Ukraine, where Russia has launched a new offensive in the east, is having an impact on markets in terms of volatility. The dollar index rose above 101 for the first time since March 2020, as the greenback hit a 20-year high against the yen and tested a two-year peak on the euro, amid higher U.S. Treasury yields. The divergence in monetary policies between Japan and the United States has pushed the yen to its weakest level against the dollar since 2002 at 128.465. "Japan is looking to continue to stimulate the economy, which is quite a big contrast to what we're seeing in the U.S. with more aggressive tightening expected," Wakefield added. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last at 2.8877%, after earlier reaching its highest level since late 2018 at 2.909%. The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose above 3.0% for the first time since early 2019. German bond yields tracked their U.S. counterparts, with the European Central Bank's non-committal tone last week leaving German bonds exposed to the U.S. bond sell-off. Germany's 10-year government bond yield rose 7.9 basis points (bps) to 0.916%, its highest since July 2015. Oil prices edged lower but remained near their highest since mid-March as investor worried over tight global supply after Libya was forced to halt some oil exports as forces in the east expanded their blockade of the sector. Brent crude futures were last down 1.3% at $111.66 a barrel. U.S. crude futures were down 1.5% at $106.57 a barrel. Gold prices were steady after coming close to reaching $2,000 an ounce during Monday's session. Spot gold was last at $1,976.04 an ounce. Title: Inflation, https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/

XBRUSD was near 115 , is the base oil mark , 5% variance from 100 total at peak levels , maybe trade this one , closer to break

**@charliebilello:** The US bond market is down 10.3% from its peak in August 2020. This is the longest (617 days) and largest correction in bonds that we've seen in recent history.(note: daily data via @ycharts goes back to 1996) https://t.co/d5TRqWVdnv https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1514954370751860739

I only peak here and there

By Stella Qiu and Alun John BEIJING (Reuters) - Asian shares tracked Wall Street higher on Thursday, while U.S. Treasury yields eased and the dollar retreated, as the latest U.S. data raised hopes that inflation may be close to peaking, though several major central banks raised rates aggressively. Traders were waiting for a European Central Bank meeting later in the day to see if it was as hawkish as others have been. Share market sentiment received a boost from China's announcement late on Wednesday that authorities should cut banks' reserve requirement ratios (RRR) soon to support an economy battered by COVID-19 lockdowns. [nL2N2WB0UH] MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4%, buoyed by a 0.5% gain in Australia's resource-heavy shares and a 1.2% advance in mainland China's blue chip stocks. Japan's Nikkei was up 1.2%. European markets are set to open higher, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.56%, German DAX futures rising 0.56%, and FTSE futures gaining 0.24% in Asia trade. S&P500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq futures were 0.4% higher. David Chao, Hong Kong-based global market strategist at Invesco, said several developments were boosting shares on Thursday, including moderating gains in U.S. core consumer prices, which could mean inflation pressures may start to abate soon, and China's announcement of more policy support. "I've argued that an upswing in money supply and credit growth could provide a floor for Chinese equities and signal that investor sentiment may soon start to improve, especially if COVID and geopolitical concerns start to wane," Chao said. Elsewhere, other central banks reinforced the hawkish global mood ahead of the ECB meeting. The Bank of Korea surprised markets with a rate hike and the Monetary Authority of Singapore also tightened policy. That did not appear to affect the sentiment much. South Korean shares KOSPI reversed earlier losses to be up 0.1%, while Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index also rose slightly. Equity markets have suffered from central banks' hawkishness, but all three Wall Street indexes gained over 1% on Wednesday. Asian markets including Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia are on holiday on Friday for the long Easter weekend, as are major European and U.S. markets. Hopes that U.S. inflation may have peaked led U.S. Treasury yields to extend their decline on Thursday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was at 2.6636%, compared to an over three-year peak of 2.836%, before the data released on Tuesday showed inflation running less hot than investors had feared. The two-year yield, which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 2.3156%, compared with a close of 2.3645% the previous day. Retreating U.S. yields offered some relief to the bruised yen on Thursday, with the safe haven currency up 0.3% against the greenback. It had weakened past the 126 yen per dollar mark in the previous session. The prospect of fast and aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes and growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan will keep rates ultra-low in the near term have weakened the yen. The euro also gained 0.2% against the dollar, although it was not too far away from its 1-month low on concerns about the war in Ukraine. Ukraine warned on Wednesday that Russia was ramping up efforts in the south and east as it seeks full control of Mariupol, while Western governments committed more military help to bolster Kyiv. Oil prices fell on Thursday, after rising sharply in the first half of the week, as traders weighed a larger-than-expected build in U.S. oil stocks against tightening global supply. [O/R] U.S. crude dipped 0.48% to $103.75 a barrel. Brent crude fell 0.1% to $108.70 per barrel. Gold was slightly lower, hovering around its 1-month high. Spot gold was traded at $1,974.72 per ounce. [GOL/]

/NQ 14140 - 14135, 14100, 14080 once at peak below 14170... no short above 14200

bastard did peak out 12.20-12.30 after all :O

By Lucia Mutikani WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. monthly consumer prices increased by the most in 16-1/2 years in March as Russia's war against Ukraine boosted the cost of gasoline to record highs, cementing the case for a 50 basis points interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month. The surge in prices reported by the Labor Department on Tuesday culminated in annual inflation rising at its fastest pace since the end of 1981. But there were some glimmers of hope, with monthly underlying price pressures rising moderately as motor vehicle prices cooled. Economists also believe overall inflation has peaked. "The Fed will take a tiny bit of comfort from today's report, but it still has much work to do to restore price stability," said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. The consumer price index accelerated 1.2% last month, the biggest monthly gain since September 2005. The CPI advanced 0.8% in February. An 18.3% surge in gasoline prices accounted for more than half the increase in the CPI. Gasoline prices at the pump on average soared to an all-time high of $4.33 per gallon in March, according to AAA. Russia is the world's second-largest crude oil exporter. The United States has banned imports of Russian oil, liquefied natural gas and coal as part of a range of sanctions against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. In addition to pushing up gasoline prices, the Russia-Ukraine war, now in its second month, has led to a global surge in food prices as Russia and Ukraine also are major exporters of commodities like wheat and sunflower oil. Outside gasoline, the increase in inflation was across the board. Food prices increased 1.0%, with the cost of food consumed at home soaring 1.5% amid strong gains across all categories. But the cost of food consumed away from home moderated as a 0.7% rise in full service meals was partially offset by a 0.2% drop in limited service meals, the first decrease since October 2018. In the 12 months through March, the CPI accelerated 8.5%. That was the largest year-on-year gain since December 1981 and followed a 7.9% jump in February. It was the sixth straight month of annual CPI readings north of 6%. Last month's increase in inflation was in line with economists' expectations. The strong CPI readings followed on the heels of news last month that the unemployment rate fell to a new two-year low of 3.6% in March. The tight labor market is fueling wage inflation. The U.S. central bank in March raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, the first hike in more than three years. Minutes of the policy meeting published last Wednesday appeared to set the stage for big rate increases down the road. High inflation and the Fed's hawkish posture have left the bond market fearing a U.S. recession, though most economists expect the expansion will continue. U.S. stocks opened higher. The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury yields fell. MONTHLY CORE CPI SLOWS Economists believe March could mark the peak in the annual CPI rate, but caution that inflation would remain well above the Fed's 2% target at least through 2023. Gasoline prices have retreated from record highs, but still remain above $4 per gallon. Last year's high inflation readings will also start falling from the CPI calculation. "March may prove to be the peak for year-over-year inflation measures for this cycle," said Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide in Columbus, Ohio. "Still, given the high starting point and the likelihood of further delays to the healing of supply chains, inflation readings should remain highly elevated through 2022 and into 2023." A second straight monthly decline in prices of used cars and trucks resulted in a tame monthly reading for underlying inflation. New motor vehicle prices also moderated. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3% after gaining 0.5% in February. A 0.5% increase in shelter costs accounted for nearly two-thirds of the rise in the so-called core CPI. A key measure of rents, owners' equivalent rent of primary residence, advanced 0.4%. The cost of hotel and motel accommodation also increased strongly. Airline fares soared 10.7%. Household furnishings also cost more and did motor vehicle insurance, apparel, recreation and personal care. The cost of healthcare rose 0.5%, with both doctor visits and hospital services increasing solidly. But prescription medication prices fell 0.2%. The core CPI climbed 6.5% in the 12 months through March, the largest rise since August 1982, after increasing 6.4% in February. Lockdowns in China to contain a resurgence in COVID-19 infections are seen putting more strain on global supply chains, which could keep goods prices elevated. Separately, rising rents for housing are also expected to keep core inflation hot.

actually , lets improve the levels , take each level above and subtract 2k , i dont like the double peak , with a failed third mountain

By Wayne Cole SYDNEY (Reuters) - Shares slid and bond yields climbed on Monday as caution gripped markets ahead of central bank meetings and U.S. inflation data, while the euro managed only a brief gain on relief the far right did not win the first round of French presidential elections. French leader Emmanuel Macron and far right challenger Marine Le Pen qualified on Sunday for what promises to be a tightly fought presidential election runoff on April 24. A Le Pen victory could send shockwaves through France and Europe in ways similar to Britain's vote in 2016 to leave the European Union (EU). The first round result was close enough to leave the euro barely changed at $1.0883, after an initial pop to $1.0950. The mood in equity markets was cautious, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan falling 1.3%. Japan's Nikkei dropped 0.7%, having shed 2.6% last week, while Chinese blue chips lost 2.4%. S&P 500 stock futures eased 0.6% and Nasdaq futures 0.7%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures lost 0.8%, and FTSE futures 0.4%. Earnings season kicks off this week with JP Morgan, Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC), Citi, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) all due to report. Up to now, Wall Street has fared surprisingly well in the face of a vicious selloff in bonds which saw 10-year Treasury yields surge 31 basis points last week. [US/] Yields were last up at a three-year high of 2.77%, and topped Chinese bond yields for the first time since 2010. Markets have raced to price in the risk of ever-larger rate hikes from the Federal Reserve with futures implying rises of 50 basis points at both the May and June meetings. BofA's U.S. economist Ethan Harris now expects half-point hikes at each of the next three meetings and a cycle peak around 3.25-3.50%. "If inflation looks like it is heading below 3%, then our current call should be hawkish enough," Harris said in a note. "Conversely, if inflation gets stuck above 3% then the Fed will need to hike until growth drops close to zero, risking a recession." INFLATION TESTS ECB All of which underlines the importance of the March U.S. consumer price report on Tuesday where the median forecast is for a stratospheric rise of 1.2%, taking annual inflation to an eye-watering 8.5%. China's inflation figures surprised on the high side on Monday and, while relatively modest at 1.5% year-on-year in March, still dented hopes for aggressive policy easing from Beijing. Inflation will also be front and centre for the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday where the risk is for a hawkish slant to the statement. "Inflation has jumped well above where the ECB thought it would be just one month ago," noted analysts at TD Securities "We expect a dramatic shift from the ECB, with the announcement of an early end to QE in May and setting the groundwork, but not quite committing to, a June hike." Continuing the tightening theme, central banks in Canada and New Zealand could well raise rates by 50 basis points at their policy meetings this week. [CA/INT] [NZ/INT] The outsized rise in Treasury yields has seen the dollar index top 100 for the first time since May 2020, and it was last trading at 99.858. The main casualty has been the yen as the Bank of Japan remains dedicated to keeping its policy super-loose and bond yields near zero. The dollar was up at 124.92 yen, having gained 1.5% last week to just below its recent peak of 125.10. In commodity markets, thermal coal was the stand out winner last week with a rise of almost 13% after the EU banned imports of Russian coal. Gold managed a weekly gain of 1.1% but has been undermined by the huge rise in bond yields and was last flat at $1,942 an ounce. [GOL/] Oil prices remained under pressure after world consumers announced plans to release crude from strategic stocks and as Chinese lockdowns continued. [O/R] Early Monday, Brent was down $2.05 at $100.73, while U.S. crude lost $2.10 to $96.16.