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recentlyThursday, October 28, 2021 Futures Up/Down % Last Dow 54.00 0.15% 35,443 S&P 500 11.25 0.26% 4,556 Nasdaq 74.50 0.47% 15.662 U.S. futures are looking at a rebound after a late day swoon erased record gains for stocks, as markets again await another earnings barrage, with yesterday and today the two busiest days of the quarter. Drama out of Washington D.C. also adding to the volatility as investors remain hopeful on a spending bill. As for Wednesday, a midday all-time high for the Nasdaq 100 was marred by a late day sell-off in U.S. stocks, as the S&P 500 and Dow each retreated from records set just the previous day, led by weakness in energy stocks as oil prices tumbled from 7-year highs and long-dated Treasury yields also slumped, with the 30-year falling as much as 10bps below 2%. Corporate earnings have generally been better-than-expected, but constant reminders about rising costs, supply-chain issues, and labor shortages on conference calls brings into question the strength of markets going forward. Couple that with expectations for the Fed to begin its asset tapering plans in November and chances of interest rate hikes in mid-2022 to help prevent inflation getting further out of hand remains a market concern. Shares of Dow components McDonald’s, Coca-Cola and Microsoft rallied behind strong earnings. In fact, the Nasdaq outperformed behind large cap winners (TSLA, GOOGL MSFT, AMZN), though breadth was decisively negative and SmallCaps plunged with the Russell 200 falling nearly 2%. President Biden’s infrastructure and social-spending plans still remain “up-in-the-air” which also adds uncertainty. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell about 1% to 28,820, the Shanghai Index slipped -1.23% to 3.518 and the Hang Seng Index dipped about -0.25% to 25,555. In Europe, the German DAX is down -0.15% at 15,680, while the FTSE 100 is also down roughly -0.2% at 7,240. Market Closing Prices Yesterday The S&P 500 Index dropped -23.11 points, or 0.51%, to 4,551.68 The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -266.19 points, or 0.74%, to 35,490.69 The Nasdaq Composite little changed, or 0.00%, to 15,235.84 The Russell 2000 Index declined -43.58 points, or 1.90% to 2,252.49 Events Calendar for Today 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims…est. 290K 8:30 AM EST Continuing Claims…est. 2.415M 8:30 AM ET Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q3-A…est. 2.7% (down from prior) 8:30 AM ET GDP Consumer Spending for Q3-A…prior month 12.0% 8:30 AM ET GDP Price Deflator for Q3…est. 5.5% 8:30 AM ET Core-PCE Prices Advance for Q3…est. 4.5% 10:00 AM ET Pending Home Sales MoM for September…est. 0% 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data 11:00 AM ET Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for October 1:00 PM ET U.S. to sell $62 bln 7-year notes Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: AB, ABMD, ADS, AEP, AGCO, ALNY, AMT, AOS, ATI, BAX, BC, BSIG, BTU, CARR, CAR, CBRE, CBZ, CFR, CG, CMCO, CMCSA, CMS, CNX, COLB, CONE, COOP, COR, CWT, DBD, EME, EXP, FCN, GPI, GVA, HBAN, HSY, IBP, ICE, ITW, KBR, KDP, KEX, LECO, LH, LKQ, MA, MCO, MDD, MO, MRK, NEM, NLSN, NOC, OSK, OSIS, OSTK, PBF, RGEN, RLGY, RS, SAH, SAIA, SNDR, SWI, SWK, TAP, TFX, TPX, TREE, TW, TXT, VC, VLY, WEX, WST, XEL, YUM Earnings After the Close: AAPL, ABCB, ACHC, AGL, AMZN, ASPN, ATEN, ATR, AVT, AX, BIO, BY, CDNA, CHE, COHU, COLM, CPT, CUZ, CWST, DECK, DVA, DXCM, EB, EMN, FISI, FTDR, FTV, GILD, HIG, HUBG, LOPE, LPLA, LTC, NGRC, MHK, MMSI, MPWR, MSTR, NATI, NXGN, PEB, POWI, PSB, PTCT, QUMU, RMD, RSG, SBCF, SBUX, SGEN, SKX, SKYW, SM, SPNE, SSNC, SYK, TEX, TXRH, VCRA, VRSN, WDC, WRAP, WRE, X, ZEN Macro Up/Down Last Nymex -1.61 81.05 Brent -1.37 83.21 Gold -2.10 1,801.20 EUR/USD -0.0006 1.1598 JPY/USD -0.23 113.57 10-Year Note +0.012 1.541% Sector News Breakdown Consumer eBay Inc. (EBAY) 3Q adj EPS $0.90 vs est. $0.89 on revs $2.5B vs est. $2.46B; guides 4Q adj EPS $0.72-0.76 vs est. $1.00, sees 4Q revs $2.57-2.62B vs est. $2.65B; raising estimated FY share buyback from $5.0B to $7.0B Ford Motor (F) announces resumption of stock dividend in 4q; 3Q adj EPS $0.51 vs est. $0.27 on revs $35.7B vs est. $32.5B; expects cash flow over current planning period to be more than sufficient to fund growth, announces resumption of regular stock dividend in 4Q; no changes to FY adj FCF guide of $4.0-5.0B Boot Barn (BOOT) Q2 EPS $1.25 vs est. $0.93 on revenue $312.7M (+67.1% vs 2Q19) vs est. $291M, same-store sales +61.7% YoY, +53.6% vs 2019; sees new unit growth 10% in FY22; named Jim Watkins as CFO with current CFO Greg Hackman continuing as VP and COO Churchill Downs (CHDN) 3Q EPS $1.57 vs est. $1.47 on revs $393Mm vs est. $406.8Mm Fresh Del Monte Produce Inc. (FDP) said it is raising prices on bananas, pineapples and fresh-cut fruit in response to unprecedented market conditions and inflationary pressures being felt across all industries iRobot (IRBT) Q3 EPS $1.67 vs. est. $0.70; Q3 revs $440.7M vs. est. $417.04M; cuts FY21 non-GAAP EPS view to $1.15-$1.74 from $2.25-$3.15 (est. $2.70) and lowers FY21 revenue view to $1.56B-$1.59B from $1.55B-$1.62B (est. $1.58B) Noodles (NDLS) Q3 adj EPS 12c vs est. 9c on in-line revenue $125.1M with digital sales 52% of total revs; system-wide comp sales +16.3% vs est. +14.3%, avg unit volume $1.38M, +16% YoY; now sees 7-9 new restaurants in 2021, down from prior outlook for 10-15; anticipates system-wide unit growth of at least 8% next year O’Reilly Auto (ORLY) Q3 EPS $8.07 vs. est. $7.18; Q3 sales $3.48B vs. est. $3.3B; gross profit margin 52.3% vs. 52.4% y/y; raises year rev outlook to $12.9B-$13.2B from prior $12.3B-$12.6B (est. $12.73B) Sleep Number (SNBR) 3Q EPS $2.22 vs est. $1.44 on revs $640Mm vs est. $587.1Mm; sees FY EPS $7.25 vs est. $7.15; Spirit Airlines (SAVE) Q3 adj EPS ($0.69) was a narrower loss than est. ($1.02) on in-line revs $922.6M; load factor 77.6%, capacity +3.5% vs 3Q19; is slowing the pace to push back to full fleet utilization, expects to produce 53B-55B available seat miles in 2022 VICI Properties (VICI) 3Q adj FFO/shr $0.45 on revs $375.7Mm; guides FY adj FFO/shr $1.7901.80 vs est. $1.84 Wyndham Hotels (WH) 3Q EPS $1.09 vs est. $0.91 on net revs $463Mm vs est. $463Mm; guides FY RevPAR growth about 43%, sees fee-related and other revs $1.21-1.23B; guides FY adj EPS $2.93-3.03 vs est. $2.69 Yum China (YUMC) Q3 adj EPS $0.22 vs. est. $0.31; Q3 revs $2.55B vs. est. $2.51B; qtrly total system sales increased 1% year over year, with increases of 1% at both KFC and Pizza Hut, excluding f/x; increasing gross new stores target to over 1,700 in 2021; expect that covid-19, especially the delta variant outbreaks, will continue to affect consumer behavior and impact our same-store sales recovery. Solo Brands, Inc. (DTC) prices 12.9M share IPO at $17.00 per share Scientific Games Corp (SGMS) announces sale of lottery business to Brookfield business partners for $6.05 billion; deal consisting of $5.825 bln in cash & an earn-out of up to $225 mln based on achievement of certain ebitda targets in 2022 & 2023 Energy, Industrials & Materials Allison Transmission (ALSN) 3Q EPS $0.89 vs est. $0.90 on revs $567Mm vs est. $584Mm; guides FY sales $2.325-2.4B vs est. $2.36B Flowserve Corp. (FLS) 3Q adj EPS $0.29 vs est. $0.40 on revs $866.1Mm vs est. $899Mm; guides FY revs down 2-4% vs est. -2.3%, sees FY EPS $1.45-1.65 (was $1.40-1.45) vs est. $1.58, sees CAPEX $70-80Mm vs prior $65Mm Kraton (KRA) Q3 adj EPS $0.98 vs. est. $0.79; Q3 revs $526.9M vs. est. $459.1M; Polymer segment operating income of $43.8 million, compared to an operating loss of $5.1 million YoY; Chemical segment operating income of $35.7M, compared to an operating loss of $401.7M YoY Sunnova Energy (NOVA) Q3 EPS ($0.25) vs est. ($0.13) on revenue $68.9M vs est. $67.4M; reaffirmed FY21 view for adj EBITDA $80M-$85M, customer additions 55k-58k; set FY22 guidance for adj EBITDA $117M-$137M, customer additions 83k-87k Tronox Holdings (TROX) Q3 adj EPS $0.72 vs. est. $0.64; Q3 revs rose 29% to $870M vs. est. $905.3M United Rentals (URI) 3Q adj EPS $6.58 vs est. $6.80 on revs $2.6B vs est. $2.58B; guides FY revs $9.6-9.75B vs est. $9.6B, sees FY adj EBITDA $4.325-4.4B vs est. 4.3B Financials Aflac (AFL) Q3 adj EPS $1.53 vs. est. $1.32; Q3 revs $5.2B vs. est. $5.34B; in yen terms, Aflac Japan’s net premium income was ¥323.1 bln for quarter, or 4.0% lower than a year ago AvalonBay (AVB) Q3 core FFO $2.06 vs est. 1.97, EPS $0.56 vs est. $0.77, same-store sales +1.2%; sees Q4 core FFO $2.19-$2.29 vs est. $2.11, raised FY core FFO view to $8.18-$8.28 from $7.92-$8.12 CyrusOne Inc. (CONE) 3Q adj FFO/shr $1.02 vs est. $0.99 on revs $304.1Mm vs est. $290.4Mm; guides FY revs $1.18-1.2B vs est. $1.17B Invitation Homes (INVH) Q3 core FFO 38c/shr vs est. 36c, EPS 12c vs est. 10c, revenue $510M vs est. $497.8M; same-store NOI +11.9% YoY on same-store revs +7.9%; raised FY21 core EPS view to $1.49 at midpoint from $1.44, adj FFO ro $1.28 at midpoint from $1.24 Lending Club (LC) Q3 EPS $0.26 vs est. $0.03 on revenue $246.2M vs est. $221.2M; sees Q4 revs $240M-$250M vs est. $235.7M, loan originations $2.8-$3B; raised FY view for revenue to $796M-$806M from $750M-$780M Raymond James (RJF) Q4 EPS $2.06 vs. est. $1.71; Q4 revs $2.7B vs. est. $2.54B; quarter-end records for client assets under administration of $1.18 trillion, financial assets under management of $191.9B, and net loans at Raymond James Bank of $25B The SEC asked at least one asset manager not to proceed with plans for a leveraged bitcoin exchange-traded fund, according to a person familiar with the matter. The SEC indicated it wants to limit new bitcoin-related products to those that provide unleveraged exposure to bitcoin futures contracts, such as the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy exchange-traded fund, which was launched last week, the person said. https://on.wsj.com/3GvG2qg Healthcare Align Technology (ALGN) 3Q adj EPS $2.87 vs est. $2.60 on revs $1.02B vs est. $978Mm; guides FY revs $3.9-3.95B vs est. $3.94B; says clinical study validates benefits of the Itero Element 5D imaging system Alnylam (ALNY) reports positive topline 18-month results from Helios-a phase 3 study of Vutrisiran in patients with HATTR amyloidosis with polyneuropathy BioMarin (BMRN) Q3 GAAP EPS loss (-$0.20) vs. est. loss (-$0.25); Q3 revs $408.7M vs. est. $435.32M; Lower Kuvan product revenues primarily due to generic competition due to the loss of exclusivity in the U.S.; Lower Aldurazyme product revenues due to timing of product fulfillment to Genzyme Edwards LifeSciences (EW) Q3 EPS $0.54 vs. est. $0.53; Q3 revs $1.3B vs. est. $1.32B; sees FY21 adjusted EPS at high end of $2.07-$2.27 (est. $2.26) and reaffirms FY21 revenue view $5.2B-$5.4B (est. $5.32B); TAVR sales grew 15%; underlying 14%; U.S. TAVR sales grew 12%; OUS approximately 20% Encompass Health (EHC) Q3 adj EPS $1.03 vs. est. $1.06; Q3 revs $1.28B vs. est. $1.31B; cuts FY21 adj EPS view to $4.23-$4.38 from $4.32-$4.47 and lowers FY21 revenue view to $5.08B-$5.13B from $5.1B-$5.25B (est. $5.18B) Molina Healthcare (MOH) Q3 adj EPS $2.83 vs. est. $2.79; Q3 revs $7.04B vs. est. $6.79B; backs FY21 EPS view of no less than $13.25 vs. est. $13.38 and backs FY21 revenue view of no less than $27.5B vs. est. $26.97B; consolidated MCR for Q3 was 88.9%, compared to 85.9% in the third quarter of 2020 Teladoc (TDOC) Q3 EPS loss (-$0.53) vs. est. loss (-$0.65); Q3 revs $521.66M vs. est. $516.6M; Q3 visits topped 3.9M, 37% higher than Q3 2020; sees Q4 EPS loss (73c)-(53c) vs. est. loss (69c); sees Q4 revs $536M-$546M vs. est. $539.74M; sees Q4 total visits 3.9M-4.1M
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recently@everyone U.S. equity futures extend yesterday’s rally amid apparent progress on the debt-ceiling impasse in Washington, while in Europe, natural gas prices and power fell after Russia offered to ease Europe’s energy crisis as U.S. stocks are looking at a stronger open. Yesterday, the S&P 500 erased a -1.3% loss in its biggest reversal since February to settle modestly higher as investors grew more optimistic that congressional Democrats and Republicans could reach a deal to avert a government debt default with October 18th, the date Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has estimated the government will run out of money and not be able to service its existing debts, if the ceiling remains in place. China markets and U.S. listed Chinese stocks (BABA, BIDU, JD) are rising as President Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to hold a virtual summit by the end of the year. Late yesterday, top U.S. Senate Republican Mitch McConnell said his party would support an extension of the federal debt ceiling into December. The offer could provide an off-ramp to a months-long standoff between President Joe Biden’s Democrats and McConnell’s Republicans, who had been expected on Wednesday to block a third attempt by Senate Democrats to raise the $28.4 trillion debt ceiling. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 149 points to 27,678, the Shanghai Index remained closed for its Golden Week holiday, and the Hang Seng Index surged 735 points, or over 3% to settle at 24,701. The picture remains bright in Europe as well with the German DAX up 175 points to 15,150 and the FTSE 100 rising 67 points or nearly 1% to 7,060. The monthly nonfarm payroll report also in focus tomorrow. Market Closing Prices Yesterday · The S&P 500 Index gained 6.51 points, or 0.15%, to 4,363.55 · The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 90.49 points, or 0.26%, to 34,416.99 · The Nasdaq Composite dropped -64.79 points, or 0.44%, to 14,501.91 · The Russell 2000 Index declined -26.67 points, or 1.19% to 2,214.96 Events Calendar for Today · 7:30 AM ET Challenger Layoffs for Sept · 8:30 AM ET Weekly Jobless Claims · 8:30 AM EST Continuing Claims · 10:30 AM ET Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data · 3:00 AM ET Consumer Credit for Aug Earnings Calendar: · Earnings Before the Open: CAG, HELE, LW · Earnings After the Close: ACCD Other Key Events: · China’s Caixin Services PMI for Sept · Piper Global Chemicals M&A Conference (virtual), 10/7 · International Conference on Molecular Targets & Cancer Therapeutics (virtual), 10/7-10/10 Consumer · Costco ($COST) reported net sales of $19.50 billion for the retail month of September, the five weeks ended October 3, 2021, an increase of 15.8% from $16.84 billion last year; Total Company Comparable Sales rose 14.3%, Sept E-Commerce Sales rose 10.6%, Sept total co. Comparable Sales ex-impacts of gas prices, foreign exchange rose 9.4% and Sept E-Commerce sales ex-impacts of gas prices, foreign exchange rose 9.6% · Levi Strauss ($LEVI) Q3 EPS $0.48 vs. est. $0.37; Q3 revs up 41% YoY to $1.5B vs. est. $1.48B; authorizes $200M share buyback; qtrly gross margin was 57.6% of net revenues, up from 54.3%; said qtrly DTC net revenues increased 34% due to increased revenues from our company-operated stores; sees 4q net rev growth 20-21% YoY · Resources Connection ($RGP) Q1 EPS $0.43 vs. est. $0.25; Q1 revs $183.1M vs. est. $175.7M; sees Q2 revs $186M-$190M vs. est. $176.9M · Carnival Cruise Line ($CCL) announced plans for more ship restarts for January and February, as it works towards the return of its full fleet sailing from U.S. homeports in the spring of 2022 · Life Time Group ($LTH) 39M share IPO priced at $18.00 Energy, Industrials and Materials · Crude futures extend Wednesday’s slump. WTI drops as much as 3.2% before recovering near $75.80. Brent follows similar price action, settling just shy of the $80 mark. · Emerson Electric Co ($EMR) is in talks to merge its software assets with industrial software company Aspen Technology Inc (AZPN), Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people with knowledge of the matter. https://bloom.bg/3AlySkj · U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. ($SLCA) said to explore strategic alternatives for industrial & specialty products (ISP) segment · Rocket Lab USA ($RKLB) announced that it has been selected to launch NASA’s Advanced Composite Solar Sail System on the Electron launch vehicle. Financials · Chubb ltd ($CB) files mixed securities shelf · Credit Acceptance ($CACC) increased the size of its revolving secured line of credit facility from $340M to $385M · Realogy ($RLGY) forms strategic joint venture with Centerbridge Partners to accelerate growth of title insurance underwriter; Centerbridge to purchase controlling interest of Realogy’s title insurance underwriter for $210M in cash · RLI Corp. ($RLI) announced an estimated range of pretax catastrophe losses of $30M-$35M, net of reinsurance, in Q3 Healthcare · Denali Therapeutic ($DNLI) announced positive Phase 1 clinical results and regulatory progress for two investigational small molecule therapeutics in development for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, ALS, at the 2021 Annual Northeast ALS · SeaSpine Holdings Corp. ($SPNE) announced the successful completion of the first cases in both the United States and Australia for the 7D Percutaneous Spine Module · Moderna ($MRNA) announced it will build a mRNA facility in Africa with the goal of producing up to 500M doses of vaccines each year at the 50-microgram dose level; the company anticipates investing up to $500M in this new facility · Osmotica Pharmaceuticals ($OSMT) 14M share Spot Secondary priced at $2.50 · Theseus Pharmaceuticals ($THRX) 10M share IPO priced at $16.00 Technology, Media & Telecom · IAC/InterActiveCorp. ($IAC) has reached a roughly $2.7 billion deal to buy magazine publisher Meredith Corp. (MDP), with holders to receive $42.18 per share in an all-cash deal. As a result of the deal, Meredith will become part of DotDash, IAC’s digital-publishing division. · Dutch antitrust authority finds Apple ($AAPL) in-app payment system anti-competitive – Reuters reports citing sources; Dutch authority has ordered apple to change app store practices; Apple has appealed to Dutch court to block publication of regulatory decision · Alibaba ($BABA), Baidu ($BIDU), NetEase ($NTES), Didi Global ($DIDI) among U.S.-listed Chinese stocks rising as concerns around U.S/China trade relations and Evergrande’s debt crisis appeared to ease. Fund giant Fidelity is putting money back into Chinese stocks and thinks the recent “indiscriminate” selling caused by the debt crisis at property giant Evergrande is presenting opportunities in the country’s beaten up bond markets. Reuters reported. “There are companies that have seen good haircuts on their debt that are not justified,” Fidelity’s global Chief Investment Officer Andrew McCaffery said during a roundtable, adding that some other parts of Asia had also been impacted. · Twitter, Inc. ($TWTR) to sell MoPub to AppLovin Corp. (APP), a leading marketing software company, for $1.05 billion in cash. The transaction will enable Twitter to accelerate the development of owned and operated revenue products and drive growth · Citrix Systems Inc ($CTXS) said David j. Henshall steps down as president, chief executive officer and member of board of directors and Bob Calderoni appointed interim president and chief executive officer; sees Q3 revenue at midpoint to high end of guidance range of $765M-$775M vs. est. $778M
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