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PBOC cuts forex RRR by 1 percentage point
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By Kevin Yao and Stella Qiu BEIJING (Reuters) - China's economy slowed in March as consumption, real estate and exports were hit hard, taking the shine off faster-than-expected first-quarter growth numbers and worsening an outlook already weakened by COVID-19 curbs and the Ukraine war. The biggest near-term challenge for Beijing is the tough new coronavirus rules at a time of heightened geopolitical risks, which have intensified supply and commodity cost pressures, leaving Chinese authorities walking a tight rope as they try to stimulate growth without endangering price stability. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 4.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday, beating analysts' expectations for a 4.4% gain and picking up from 4.0% in the fourth quarter. A surprisingly strong start in the first two months of the year improved the headline figures, with GDP up 1.3% in January-March in quarter-on-quarter terms, compared with expectations for a 0.6% rise and a revised 1.5% gain in the previous quarter. Analysts say April data will likely be worse, with lockdowns in commercial centre Shanghai and elsewhere dragging on, prompting some to warn of rising recession risks. "Further impacts from lockdowns are imminent, not only because there has been a delay in the delivery of daily necessities, but also because they add uncertainty to services and factory operations that have already impacted the labour market," said Iris Pang, Greater China chief economist at ING. "We may need to revise our GDP forecasts further if fiscal support does not come in time." China's shares fell, likely reacting to the March numbers and a weak outlook - the blue chip CSI300 index was down 0.6%, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.5%. WORSENING RETAIL SALES, JOBLESS RATE Data on March activity showed retail sales contracting the most on an annual basis since April 2020 on widespread COVID curbs across the country. They fell 3.5%, worse than expectations for a 1.6% decrease and an increase of 6.7% in January-February. The job market is already showing signs of stress in March, a usually robust month for labour market as factories resume hiring after the Lunar New Year holiday. China's nationwide survey-based jobless rate stood at 5.8% in March, the highest since May 2020, while that in 31 major cities hit a record 6.0%. The industrial sector held up better with production expanding 5.0% from a year earlier, compared with forecasts for a 4.5% gain. That was down from a 7.5% increase in the first two months of the year. Fixed asset investment, a driver of growth that Beijing is counting on to underpin the economy, increased 9.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, compared with an expected 8.5% increase but down from 12.2% growth in the first two months. Analysts at Capital Economics and Nomura believe the official GDP figures may have understated the slowdown last quarter. Capital Economics says growth in services production index for Q1 does not align with the expansion of the services sector in the GDP data, while Nomura said some of the March data, such as industrial production, are hard to reconcile with many other indicators of industrial activity. Home sales by value in March slumped 26.2% year-on-year, the biggest drop since January-February 2020, according to Reuters calculations, pointing to a deepening downturn in the property market. 'HIGHLY COSTLY' COVID-19 CURBS The government's determination to stop the spread of record COVID-19 cases has clogged highways and ports, stranded workers and shut factories - disruptions that are rippling through global supply chains for goods from electric vehicles to iPhones. The contribution from net exports to GDP growth fell to 3.7% in the first quarter from 26.4% in the fourth as momentum ebbed. Fu Linghui, a NBS spokesman, acknowledged the increase in downward economic pressure. "We will step up the implementation of macro policies, make every effort to stabilise the economic fundamentals, and strive to achieve the targets and tasks for the year," Fu told a news conference. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on Monday it would step up support for industries, firms and people hit by COVID-19 in its latest move to cushion them from the impact of economic slowdown. Late on Friday, the PBOC said it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the first time this year, releasing about 530 billion yuan ($83.25 billion) in long-term liquidity, although the reduction missed expectations. Analysts see less room for more China rate cuts, after the smaller-than-expected RRR reduction, which they say reflected the PBOC's concern about inflation and U.S. monetary tightening. "The government faces a dilemma: how to balance economic growth and containing the outbreaks. Locking down large cities like Shanghai is highly costly," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. "Such costs will become more visible in coming months."
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By Stella Qiu and Kevin Yao BEIJING (Reuters) -China said on Friday it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves for the first time this year, releasing about 530 billion yuan ($83.25 billion) in long-term liquidity to cushion a sharp slowdown in economic growth. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said on its website it would cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for all banks by 25 basis points (bps), effective from April 25, but analysts said it might not yet be enough to reverse the slowdown. Heightened global risks from the war in Ukraine and within China widespread COVID-19 lockdowns and a weak property market have triggered convulsions in the world's second-largest economy that are quickly spilling over into global supply chains. China's exports, the last major driver of growth, are also showing signs of fatigue, and some economists say the risks of a recession are rising. "I don’t think this RRR cut matters that much for the economy at this stage," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noting it was less than markets had expected. "The main challenge the economy faces is the Omicron outbreaks and the lockdown policies that restrict mobility. More liquidity may help on the margin, but it doesn’t address the root of the problem," he said. The PBOC said the latest RRR cut would boost the long-term funds for banks, enabling them to step up support for industries and firms affected by COVID-19 outbreaks, and lower costs for banks. It will cut financial institutions' annual funding costs by about 6.5 billion yuan. The PBOC will also continue to keep liquidity broadly stable, while closely watching inflationary trends and policy changes made by developed countries, it said. For city commercial banks that do not have cross-provincial business and rural commercial banks that have an RRR of more than 5%, they are entitled to an additional cut of 25 bps. The weighted average RRR for financial institutions will be lowered to 8.1% after the cut, the central bank said. Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, expects another 25bp RRR cut before the year-end, most likely before mid-2022, before cutting RRR for some big banks that still have relatively high reserve ratios. "We expect the PBOC to focus on increasing its direct credit support to small- and medium-sized enterprises, the agricultural sector, green investment, tech and elderly care via the MLF (medium-term lending facility), relending and rediscounting channels," Lu said. HEADWINDS The cut, which follows a broad-based reduction in December, had been widely expected after China's cabinet said on Wednesday that monetary policy tools should be used in a timely way to bolster growth. The PBOC has also started cutting interest rates, while local governments have expedited infrastructure spending and the finance ministry has pledged more tax cuts. China's economy rebounded strongly from a pandemic-induced slump in 2020 but cooled over the course of 2021 due to persistent property market weakness and strict measures to contain COVID-19 flare-ups, which hurt consumption. The government's determination to halt the latest spread of record COVID-19 cases has clogged highways and ports, stranded workers and shut countless factories - disruptions that are ripping through global supply chains for goods ranging from electric vehicles to iPhones. China's imports unexpectedly fell in March as the restrictions hampered freight arrivals and weakened domestic demand, while export growth also slowed. Factory and services sector activity both contracted. The government is targeting economic growth of around 5.5% this year as headwinds build, but some analysts say that may now be hard to achieve without more aggressive stimulus measures. With other major central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve set to aggressively raise interest rates or already doing so, more forceful easing in China could spur potentially destabilising capital outflows as investors shift money to higher yielding assets. Earlier on Friday, the PBOC kept the rate on its medium-term lending facility unchanged for a third straight month, as expected.
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By Stella Qiu and Alun John BEIJING (Reuters) - Asian shares tracked Wall Street higher on Thursday, while U.S. Treasury yields eased and the dollar retreated, as the latest U.S. data raised hopes that inflation may be close to peaking, though several major central banks raised rates aggressively. Traders were waiting for a European Central Bank meeting later in the day to see if it was as hawkish as others have been. Share market sentiment received a boost from China's announcement late on Wednesday that authorities should cut banks' reserve requirement ratios (RRR) soon to support an economy battered by COVID-19 lockdowns. [nL2N2WB0UH] MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4%, buoyed by a 0.5% gain in Australia's resource-heavy shares and a 1.2% advance in mainland China's blue chip stocks. Japan's Nikkei was up 1.2%. European markets are set to open higher, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures up 0.56%, German DAX futures rising 0.56%, and FTSE futures gaining 0.24% in Asia trade. S&P500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq futures were 0.4% higher. David Chao, Hong Kong-based global market strategist at Invesco, said several developments were boosting shares on Thursday, including moderating gains in U.S. core consumer prices, which could mean inflation pressures may start to abate soon, and China's announcement of more policy support. "I've argued that an upswing in money supply and credit growth could provide a floor for Chinese equities and signal that investor sentiment may soon start to improve, especially if COVID and geopolitical concerns start to wane," Chao said. Elsewhere, other central banks reinforced the hawkish global mood ahead of the ECB meeting. The Bank of Korea surprised markets with a rate hike and the Monetary Authority of Singapore also tightened policy. That did not appear to affect the sentiment much. South Korean shares KOSPI reversed earlier losses to be up 0.1%, while Singapore's benchmark Straits Times Index also rose slightly. Equity markets have suffered from central banks' hawkishness, but all three Wall Street indexes gained over 1% on Wednesday. Asian markets including Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia are on holiday on Friday for the long Easter weekend, as are major European and U.S. markets. Hopes that U.S. inflation may have peaked led U.S. Treasury yields to extend their decline on Thursday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was at 2.6636%, compared to an over three-year peak of 2.836%, before the data released on Tuesday showed inflation running less hot than investors had feared. The two-year yield, which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, touched 2.3156%, compared with a close of 2.3645% the previous day. Retreating U.S. yields offered some relief to the bruised yen on Thursday, with the safe haven currency up 0.3% against the greenback. It had weakened past the 126 yen per dollar mark in the previous session. The prospect of fast and aggressive U.S. interest rate hikes and growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan will keep rates ultra-low in the near term have weakened the yen. The euro also gained 0.2% against the dollar, although it was not too far away from its 1-month low on concerns about the war in Ukraine. Ukraine warned on Wednesday that Russia was ramping up efforts in the south and east as it seeks full control of Mariupol, while Western governments committed more military help to bolster Kyiv. Oil prices fell on Thursday, after rising sharply in the first half of the week, as traders weighed a larger-than-expected build in U.S. oil stocks against tightening global supply. [O/R] U.S. crude dipped 0.48% to $103.75 a barrel. Brent crude fell 0.1% to $108.70 per barrel. Gold was slightly lower, hovering around its 1-month high. Spot gold was traded at $1,974.72 per ounce. [GOL/]
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**@mark_dow:** Yes. RRR is often/usually more about managing BOP pressures than it is about the domestic economy https://t.co/m0rWVlmYBt https://twitter.com/mark_dow/status/1469212084109930498
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By Anshuman Daga SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Asian shares staged a recovery on Tuesday on receding worries about the impact of the Omicron variant while Chinese markets were supported by the central bank easing monetary policy. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan advanced 1.3% and was on course for its biggest jump in two months, after declining on Monday to the lowest level in one year. Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 0.5% and FTSE futures put on 0.08% in early trade, indicating a firm market open after European stocks ended higher on Monday. China's CSI300 index gained 0.6% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index advanced 1.7% as the central bank freed up $188 billion in liquidity through a policy easing. "With this cut, policymakers are demonstrating a more forceful approach to prevent an all-out property market rout," David Chao, global market strategist, Asia Pacific, ex-Japan, at Invesco said in a note. The People's Bank of China said on Monday it would cut the amount of cash that banks must hold in reserve, its second such move this year, releasing the funds in long-term liquidity to bolster slowing economic growth. China is in a mid-cycle slowdown and the RRR cut is exactly what the economy needs to get back on track, said Chao. "It's feasible that more RRR cuts are in store over the next year in order to stabilize growth," he added. Elsewhere, Australia's S&P/ASX200 rose 0.95%, while Japan's Nikkei advanced 2.1% as risk-on sentiment pushed markets higher. MSCI's main Asia ex-Japan benchmark has lost about 5% so far this year, with Hong Kong markets figuring among the big losers, while Indian and Taiwanese stocks outperformed. Shares in embattled developer Evergrande edged up 1.7% after hitting a record low on Monday as markets awaited to see if the real estate giant has paid $82.5 million with a 30-day grace period coming to an end. Elsewhere, markets were supported by gains on Wall Street, where economically sensitive stocks outperformed. "While epidemiologists have rightly warned against premature conclusions on Omicron, markets arguably surmised that last week's brutal sell-off ought to have been milder," Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank, said in a note. "After all, early assessments of Omicron cases have been declared mild, spurring half-full relief." Omicron has spread to about a third of U.S. states, but the Delta version accounts for the majority of COVID-19 infections in the United States, health officials said on Sunday. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease official, told CNN it does not look like Omicron has a "great degree of severity." Stocks on Wall Street closed higher on Monday. The risk-on mood also helped the dollar climb against safe haven currencies such as the Japanese yen,, which lost 0.6% overnight, while the risk-friendly Australian dollar also found buyers. [FRX/] Also supporting the dollar was the expectation the Federal Reserve will accelerate the tapering of its bond-buying program when it meets next week in response to a tightening labour market. Oil prices ticked higher, consolidating a nearly 5% rebound the day before as concerns about the impact of the Omicron variant on global fuel demand eased. Brent crude futures strengthened 0.9% to $73.7 a barrel, after settling 4.6% higher on Monday. [O/R] Gold prices were steady at $1,778.5 per ounce on expectations U.S. consumer price data due later this week will show inflation quickening.
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@DarkPoolAlgo #Dark Pool Charts
U.S. futures are holding steady, only moderately lower from yesterday’s closing all-time highs for the major averages as investors brace for the FOMC meeting, with results expected tomorrow afternoon. Bitcoin prices surging to highs, up over 4% around $63,400 in another broad spike for crypto assets; Ethereum +3.25% at $4,450. House Speaker Pelosi is planning to go ahead with plans to vote this week on President Biden’s two bills even though Democratic moderates are echoing Senator Manchin’s complaints that they don’t know full cost & economic impact. In corporate news, JNJ, TEVA, ENDP and ABBV win the first case for pharmaceutical companies in the four-year litigation over the drugs in a $50B opioid litigation case. In commodity prices, gold holds below $1,800, oil is little changed around $84 per barrel and Wheat hit $8.00 a bushel Monday, highest levels since 2012 as world reserves declined following extreme weather. The Aussie dollar drops and the curve bull steepens after the RBA scraps its April 2024 yield target and signals openness to earlier rate hikes. Tesla $TSLA falls over 4%, is falling off a record high close of $1,208.59 – follows tweet from CEO Musk overnight saying there has been no contract signed yet with Hertz and that the Hertz deal has zero effect on Tesla’s economic. Wall Street’s main indexes notched record closing highs again on Monday, adding to the big totals in October as Tesla $TSLA shares surged and the energy sector gained on rising oil prices while investors looked ahead to a major Federal Reserve meeting later in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly eclipsed 36,000 points for the first time before slipping just below. Along with the barrage of earnings again this week, the Federal Reserve is expected to approve plans to scale back its $120 billion monthly bond-buying program on Wednesday. The small-cap Russell 2000 index was a standout, rising 2.7% for its biggest daily percentage gain since late August. Economic data was mixed as the ISM U.S. manufacturing activity slowed in October, with all industries reporting record-long lead times. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index slipped -0.43% to 29,520, the Shanghai Index dropped -1.1% to 3,505, and the Hang Seng Index fell -0.22% to 25,099. In Europe, the German DAX is up +0.4% at 15,875, while the FTSE 100 declines around -0.6% below 7,250. Events Calendar for Today · 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales · 8:55 AM ET Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales Earnings Calendar: · Earnings Before the Open: AME, APO, ARCB, AVNS, BBGI, BCC, BHC, BLD, BLMN, CEIX, CLW, CMI, COP, CRSR, CTLT, DD, EL, EPD, ESPR, ETN, EXLS, EXPD, EXTR, GNRC, GPN, HEES, HEP, HSC, HSIC, IART, IDXX, INCY, IPGP, IT, KKR, LCII, LDOS, LEA, LGIH, LPX, MIME, MLM, MMP, MPC, MPLX, MYGN, NRZ, NXST, NYMT, OMCL, PFE, PINC, RL, ROK, SABR, SAGE, SEE, TMX, TNC, UAA, VAL, WEC, WLK, XHR, XYL ZBRA · Earnings After the Close: ACT, AFG, AIZ, AKAM AMGN, ANDE, ATVI, AWK, AYX, BFAM, BGFV, BKH, BRY, BXC, CASA, CDK, CERS, CHK, COUR, CRK, CSLT, CZR, DCO, DCPH, DEI, DENN, DOX, DRRX, DVN, EGHT, EIX, ENLC, EXAS, EXEL, FMC, FNF, FRSH, GAIN, GNW, GPOR, HALO, HCC, HLF, HRB, HURN, INFI, INSP, KAI, KAMN, KAR, LPI, LSCC, LSI, LYFT, MANT, MDLZ, MG, MGNX, MOD, MRCY, MTCH, NP, NSA, OKE, OVV, PAA, PAGP, PAYC, PKI, PRO, PRTS, PRU, RAMP, RARE, RCKY, RM, RRR, SGRY, SKY, SRC, STE, TCS, TMUS, TVTY, UIS, UNM, VECO, VOYA, VRSK, WTTR, WU, ZG Other Key Events: · China Caixin Services PMI for October · Wolfe Research Wealth Symposium, 11/2-11/3 $virtual · Senator Manchin says he is prepared to support a Build Back Better plan that combats inflation, is fiscally responsible, and will create jobs. The plan the House is finalizing meets those tests-it is fully paid for, will reduce the deficit, and brings down costs for health care, child care, elder care, and housing
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In their latest, SocGen’s Wei Yao and Michelle Lam called for “overt easing,” but suggested the Party might be misjudging the situation. “There has been policy easing, albeit in dribs and drabs [but] policymakers still seem reluctant to make any overt easing moves, possibly because they are attributing most of the blame to the power crunch, which has now eased but is not resolved,” they wrote, on the way to warning that, Housing is the key and there seems nothing substantial in the near term to mitigate the downtrend. Hence, we stick to our view that policymakers need to undertake overt monetary and fiscal easing soon. We still believe the PBoC will cut the RRR and even policy rates this quarter.
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Several months back, additional easing from the PBoC by the end of 2021 was seen as a foregone conclusion. It was just a matter of which levers they’d pull. Now, though, market participants increasingly doubt broad-based easing is forthcoming. Even another RRR cut (i.e., in addition to July’s move) is seen as unlikely. The central bank turned on the OMO spigot ahead of the holiday and delivered a sizable injection on Wednesday, but that’s not easing. That’s just liquidity management. Don’t let the headlines fool you. “We believe the real factor behind the slowing economy is not a shortage of interbank liquidity, but bottlenecks due to property curbs, the energy crunch and COVID-19,” Nomura’s Ting Lu said this week. “With rising inflation, we think the chance of a rate cut is getting much smaller.” LPR was unchanged for an 18th month (figure below) Wednesday. (The fix comes on the 20th of each month.)
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By Alun John HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data reinforced worries about slowing global growth, amid fraught nerves over pandemic-related business disruptions and central banks' plans to taper stimulus. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.61%, while Tokyo's Nikkei shed 0.49%, moving off a more than 31-year closing-high the day before. After the data, Chinese blue chips were down 0.73%, but pared earlier losses on hopes Beijing will roll out more stimulus. However, futures indicated a steadier open for European and U.S. equity markets, with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.08% and FTSE futures 0.11% higher. A burst of data out of China showed growth in its factory and retail sectors continued to falter in August with output and sales growth hitting one-year lows as fresh coronavirus outbreaks and supply disruptions threatened its economic recovery. Retail sales grew at the slowest pace since August 2020 and missed analysts' expectations, while industrial output also rose at a weaker pace from July, underscoring recent signs of slackening momentum in China and adding to expectations that Beijing will need to offer more support measures in coming months. "This is not a dip, it is a falling trend that will last at least until the end of this year," said Iris Pang, chief China economist at ING. Pang said she anticipated a 0.5 percentage point cut in Chinese banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in October, and said more fiscal support was needed for small- and medium-sized companies. Shares in property developer Evergrande, which is scrambling to raise funds to pay its many lenders and suppliers, fell for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, losing as much as 5.1% to their lowest since January 2014. Rating agency Fitch said that numerous sectors could be exposed to heightened credit risk if China's No.2 property developer were to default, although the overall impact on the banking sector would be manageable. Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index shed 1.4%, as casino stocks plunged after Macau began a public consultation which investors fear will lead to tighter regulations in the world's largest gambling hub. An index tracking gaming stocks fell 20%, while Wynn Macau (OTC:WYNMF) fell as much as 34% to a record low. Markets also remained focused on the Federal Reserve's timeline for tapering its massive emergency stimulus. “There is uncertainty in markets at the moment as investors wait to see what the Federal Reserve will do about tapering their asset purchases, which depends on the state of the labour market and the inflation situation,” said Sean Debow Asia CEO of Eurizon Asset Management. Debow said greater clarity would emerge on both in the coming weeks, though for now markets were quick to react to any data points on employment and inflation. Overnight the U.S. Labor Department reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August posted its smallest gain in six months, suggesting inflation has probably peaked, aligning with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's long-held belief that high inflation is transitory. Lower inflation suggests the Fed will be under less pressure to begin trimming its vast asset purchases, and, as a result, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note US10YT=RR fell as low as 1.263%, its lowest since Aug. 24. Yields recovered slightly and were little changed in Asia on Wednesday at 1.284%, while the dollar was steady also having slipped against a basket of its peers on the inflation figures. Other currencies were also largely steady in Asian hours, with sterling particularly quiet ahead of British CPI figures. A strong reading could potentially add pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates. Oil prices gained on a larger than expected drawdown in crude oil stocks in the United States, with U.S. crude gaining 0.68% to $70.94 a barrel and Brent crude rising 0.61% to $74.05 per barrel. [O/R] Spot gold was little changed, trading at $1802.0374 per ounce off having fallen from a one week peak of $1,808.50 on which it hit on prospects for lower interest rates. [GOL/]
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“We expect Beijing to up their bond issuance and fiscal spending alongside the PBoC increasing liquidity via targeted RRR cuts and various lending facilities in an attempt to offset these slowdown pressures over the coming months,” Charlie wrote, but noted that according to colleague Ting Lu, it won’t be enough. Nomura sees growth in China “drop[ping] significantly, driven by the latest wave of COVID-19, slowing exports, property tightening and the campaign to reduce carbon emissions.” Investors, the bank said, “should be prepared for what could be a much worse-than-expected growth slowdown, more loan and bond defaults and potential stock market turmoil.” As a reminder, more than three-quarters of those surveyed for the August vintage of BofA’s Global Fund Manager survey expect China to ease over the next several months (figure below).
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No one seemed particularly excited about China’s RRR cut. Fatalistic takes and sarcastic quips about the futility of the move aside, I’d still contend that you don’t need the tacit derision to spin a dour narrative on this one. The dovish pivot is an indication that the Party is concerned about growth. That has implications for the global economy. But who knows, maybe all of those implications aren’t bad. “China’s troubles could be a sign that demand is pivoting from goods to services,” Bloomberg’s Eddie van der Walt mused. “That may take some pressure off inflation, freeing central banks to keep rates lower for longer.” ----- Heisenberg
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This is how Wei Yao, China economist for SocGen, summarized it: The past history of RRR cuts (of any kind) suggests that this tool is never used when the economy is doing well. So now that the trigger has been pulled, two things are clear. - First, the economy is not doing well, and this will likely be confirmed by next week’s 2Q GDP data…. Second, China’s easing cycle has started... We now expect another RRR cut of 50bp in 4Q. Based on our current economic projection and bearing in mind the PBoC’s dislike of excessive easing, we do not think the economy would warrant an interest rate cut this year yet. Next year looks more likely. However, even without a policy rate cut, the PBoC will probably drive down interbank rates with more generous liquidity injections from here. from John Authers BBG
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While it’s always “prudent” (to use the PBoC’s favorite word) to parse the TSF data before chancing an assessment, the combination of accelerating credit growth and the RRR cut pretty clearly suggests that all pretensions to keeping credit provision “basically stable” notwithstanding, Beijing is moving preemptively to support an economy that’s seen flagging. Remember, China’s credit impulse turned negative in May on some lookbacks. M2 growth was 8.6% in June, far brisker than the 8.2% economists expected and above the top-end of the range.
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China pulled the trigger on an RRR cut Friday, just two days after the State Council tipped a dovish pivot. The PBoC slashed the reserve requirement by 50bps (figure below), a move Beijing said will free up 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity. It’s effective from July 15.
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Some rumbling PBoC may reverse tightening and cut RRR
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danke @PeterBecker für deinen Hinweis zu RRR und ARR. Habe dazu auch einen Artikel gelesen, der das ganze fachlich gut erklärt https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Wie-wirksam-sind-die-Covid-19-Impfstoffe-6055635.html?seite=all
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läuft aufs gleiche raus , es geht nur um die RRR nicht die ARR . Die relative risk reduction liegt bei biontech bei 90% + aber die absolute risk reduction nur bei 1% , es ist so oder so bullshit
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@DarkPoolAlgo #Dark Pool Charts
/*============================================= = Monday June 07, 2021 = =============================================*/ Monday, June 7, 2021 Futures Up/Down % Last Dow 30.00 0.09% 34,772 S&P 500 -4.25 0.10% 4,224 Nasdaq -45.50 0.33% 13,721 U.S. futures are mixed to start the trading week as the Dow rises, S&P little changed and Nasdaq futures slide about 45 points as shares of U.S. tech giants decline after the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies agreed this weekend to back a minimum global tax rate of at least 15% (watch shares of $AAPL, $AMZN, $FB, $GOOGL). Apple (AAPL) will kick off its annual Worldwide Developer Conference at 1 p.m. ET. In healthcare, all eyes on Biogen ($BIIB) as the company rises ahead of FDA decision on Alzheimer’s drug aducanumab as the FDA is set to decide on whether to approve company’s controversial Alzheimer’s disease drug. This weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said President Joe Biden should push forward with his $4 trillion spending plans even if they cause an inflation spike into next year. She also told Bloomberg in an interview that slightly higher interest rates would be a plus. Other than that, a quiet day for economic data. Stocks climbed on Friday as the key May jobs report showed solid gains, boosting confidence in the economic comeback, while for the week, the S&P rose 0.62%, the Dow added 0.66%, the Nasdaq gained 0.48%. Bitcoin and most other top cryptocurrencies fell on Sunday on concerns that there may be a further crackdown on the industry in China and as a report from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. served as a reminder that institutional adoption may be a long process. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 77 points to settle at 29,020, the Shanghai Index rose 7 points to 3,599, and the Hang Seng Index slipped -130 points to 28,787. In Europe, the German DAX is up about 35 points to 15,725, while the FTSE 100 is up around 20 points to 7,090. Market Closing Prices Yesterday The S&P 500 Index jumped 37.04 points, or 0.88%, to 4,229.89 The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179.39 points, or 0.52%, to 34,756.39 The Nasdaq Composite surged 199.99 points, or 1.47%, to 13,814.49 The Russell 2000 Index advanced 7.16 points, or 0.31% to 2,286.41 Events Calendar for Today 3:00 PM EST Consumer Credit for April Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: $GII Earnings After the Close: $BBCP, $COUP, $HQY, $MRVL, $MTN, $NAPA, $REVG, $SFIX Other Key Events: American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), 6/4-6/8 Deutsche Bank Global Consumer Conference (virtual), 6/7-6/10 Goldman Sachs Travel & Leisure Conference 2021 (virtual), 6/7-6/8 Oppenheimer Virtual Software & Semiconductor Bus Tour, 6/7-6/11 Macro Up/Down Last Nymex -0.39 69.23 Brent -0.43 71.46 Gold -5.90 1,885.70 EUR/USD -0.0015 1.2152 JPY/USD -0.04 109.48 10-Year Note +0.019 1.579% World News The G7 reached a landmark deal on Saturday to squeeze more money out of multinational companies such as Amazon and Google and reduce their incentive to shift profits to low-tax offshore havens. Hundreds of billions of dollars could flow into the coffers of governments left cash-strapped by the COVID-19 pandemic after the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies agreed to back a minimum global corporate tax rate of at least 15%. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said President Joe Biden should push forward with his $4 trillion spending plans even if they trigger inflation that persists into next year and higher interest rates. “If we ended up with a slightly higher interest rate environment it would actually be a plus for society’s point of view and the Fed’s point of view,” Yellen said Sunday in an interview with Bloomberg News Sector News Breakdown Consumer Las Vegas is making a comeback according to Barron’s saying bookings at casino resorts have gone up, but convention and expo business still faces uncertainty after the pandemic. Among REITs, MGM Growth Properties ($MGP) and VICI Properties ($VICI) offer yields above 4%. Two major Las Vegas Strip players are MGM Resorts International ($MGM) and Caesars Entertainment ($CZR). Regional casinos Boyd Gaming ($BYD) and Red Rock Resorts ($RRR), which cater more to the local market, have gained more than MGM and Caesars since the end of last January. Avis Budget Group Inc ($CAR) board approved a $325 mln increase to company’s share repurchase authorization Lordstown Motors ($RIDE) said it received a notice of delinquency for late filing from the Nasdaq Stock Market because it has yet to file its 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31 Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc agreed to sell its Chinese baby-formula business to Primavera Capital Group for $2.2 billion as the company seeks to exit from the struggling sector. Reckitt will retain an 8% stake in the unit and sees net cash proceeds of about $1.3 billion Tesla ($TSLA) CEO Elon Musk told Twitter followers that the Plaid+ trim is “canceled” as the imminent, lower-priced ‘regular’ Plaid model is “just so good.” It’s the quickest production car ever, he claimed Energy, Industrials and Materials Peabody Energy ($BTU) files to say has entered into at market issuance sales agreement to offer and sell up to 12.5 mln shares of common stock Diana Shipping Inc. ($DSX) files for mixed shelf of up to $750 mln TimkenSteel ($TMST) announced it will increase base pricing on all special bar quality products by $50 per ton Trucker rating changes at Goldman Sachs as they upgraded CH Robinson ($CHRW) to Buy from Sell with a $108 price target saying asset-based truckload sector fundamentals are very robust right now with supply tight, demand strong and prices elevated, while the firm downgraded ArcBest (ARCB) to Neutral and Werner ($WERN) to Sell Financials Barron’s said Allegiance Bancshares ($ABTX), PNC Financial Services Group ($PNC), Pinnacle Financial Partners ($PNFP), SVB Financial Group ($SIVB) are banks that operate in regions where growth is booming, and they can benefit from loan growth sooner Realty Income Corp ($O) files mixed securities shelf Essex Property ($ESS) raises low end of core FFO guidance for Q2 and FY21 as now sees Q2 core FFO of $2.92-3.00 (prior: $2.84-3.00) vs. a consensus of $2.98; sees FY21 core FFO of $12.02-12.46 (prior: $11.46-$12.46) vs. $12.23 consensus. Visa ($V) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler and up tgt to $260 from $234 Healthcare Biogen ($BIIB) rises ahead of FDA decision on Alzheimer’s drug aducanumab as the FDA is set to decide on whether to approve company’s controversial Alzheimer’s disease drug. If approved, Biogen’s aducanumab would be the first treatment in more than a decade to treat the disease (other companies with Alzheimer treatments include $AVXL, $PRTA, $SAVA) ChromaDex Corp. ($CDXC) announced the launch of its flagship consumer product Tru Niagen(R) in Walmart, available in 3,800 stores across the United States. Walmart is the first major U.S. retailer to bring this well-studied healthy aging nutrient to stores Fate Therapeutics ($FATE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at H.C. Wainwright Liminal BioSciences ($LMNL) shares jumped post-market Friday after the U.S. FDA approved Ryplazim for the treatment of patients with plasminogen deficiency type 1 (hypoplasminogenia) Iovance Biotherapeutics ($IOVA) announced updated clinical data for lifileucel from Cohort 2 in the C-144-01 clinical study in patients with advanced melanoma. The data were presented in an oral presentation at the ASCO 2021 Annual Meeting Novartis ($NVS) announced Phase 2 primary endpoint data showing investigational iptacopan – a first-in-class, oral, targeted factor B inhibitor – reduced protein in the urine, an increasingly recognized surrogate marker correlating with progression to kidney failure, and showed promise in stabilizing kidney function in patients with IgA nephropathy, or IgAN Technology, Media & Telecom Apple ($AAPL) will debut major software updates for the iPhone and iPad at its developers’ conference this week Software maker PTC ($PTC) is up 60% over the past two years, but it has more upside as it seeks to dominate the Internet of Things, Barron’s says. Autodesk ($ADSK) confirmed that it has submitted a non-binding proposal to acquire all the outstanding shares of common stock of Altium ($ALMFF) for A$38.50 Flextronics ($FLEX) forecasted that the chip shortage disrupting the car industry and the supply of consumer technology products will last until at least mid-2022 – Financial Times reported
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Ich hab gestern mit einer kleinen Position meinen ersten Short in BTC gewagt. RRR = 1:3, wie von Robert gelernt :-)
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Elsewhere today, we see more stimulus coming. China says it will make targeted RRR cuts and additional cuts to some other banks. Merkel and Lagarde seem to be coming to agreement, but the proof of the strudel is in the ECB meeting tomorrow. Stock markets continue to display a huge amount of volatility. Bond markets are wise old heads still showing extreme fear, but stocks are like excitable children.
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anyone can teach me how to calculate RRR based on my position size?
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how do I calculate RRR to my position size
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Red Rock Resorts owns a majority indirect equity interest in and manages Station Casinos LLC ('Station Casinos'). Station Casinos is the leading provider of gaming and entertainment to the residents of Las Vegas, Nevada. Station Casinos' properties, which are located throughout the Las Vegasvalley, are regional entertainment destinations and include various amenities, including numerous restaurants, entertainment venues, movie theaters, bowling and convention/banquet space, as well as traditional casino gaming offerings such as video poker, slot machines, table games, bingo and race and sports wagering. Station Casinos owns and operates Red Rock Casino Resort Spa, Green Valley Ranch Resort Spa Casino, Palms Casino Resort, Palace Station Hotel & Casino, Boulder Station Hotel & Casino, Sunset Station Hotel & Casino, Santa Fe Station Hotel & Casino, Texas Station Gambling Hall & Hotel, Fiesta Rancho Casino Hotel, Fiesta Henderson Casino Hotel, Wildfire Rancho, Wildfire Boulder, Wild Wild West Gambling Hall & Hotel, Wildfire Sunset, Wildfire Valley View, Wildfire Anthem and Wildfire Lake Mead. Station Casinos also owns a 50% interest in Barley's Casino & Brewing Company, Wildfire Casino & Lanes and The Greens. In addition, Station Casinos is the manager of Graton Resort & Casino in northern California.