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In their latest, SocGen’s Wei Yao and Michelle Lam called for “overt easing,” but suggested the Party might be misjudging the situation. “There has been policy easing, albeit in dribs and drabs [but] policymakers still seem reluctant to make any overt easing moves, possibly because they are attributing most of the blame to the power crunch, which has now eased but is not resolved,” they wrote, on the way to warning that, Housing is the key and there seems nothing substantial in the near term to mitigate the downtrend. Hence, we stick to our view that policymakers need to undertake overt monetary and fiscal easing soon. We still believe the PBoC will cut the RRR and even policy rates this quarter.
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Several months back, additional easing from the PBoC by the end of 2021 was seen as a foregone conclusion. It was just a matter of which levers they’d pull. Now, though, market participants increasingly doubt broad-based easing is forthcoming. Even another RRR cut (i.e., in addition to July’s move) is seen as unlikely. The central bank turned on the OMO spigot ahead of the holiday and delivered a sizable injection on Wednesday, but that’s not easing. That’s just liquidity management. Don’t let the headlines fool you. “We believe the real factor behind the slowing economy is not a shortage of interbank liquidity, but bottlenecks due to property curbs, the energy crunch and COVID-19,” Nomura’s Ting Lu said this week. “With rising inflation, we think the chance of a rate cut is getting much smaller.” LPR was unchanged for an 18th month (figure below) Wednesday. (The fix comes on the 20th of each month.)
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By Alun John HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares fell on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data reinforced worries about slowing global growth, amid fraught nerves over pandemic-related business disruptions and central banks' plans to taper stimulus. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 0.61%, while Tokyo's Nikkei shed 0.49%, moving off a more than 31-year closing-high the day before. After the data, Chinese blue chips were down 0.73%, but pared earlier losses on hopes Beijing will roll out more stimulus. However, futures indicated a steadier open for European and U.S. equity markets, with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.08% and FTSE futures 0.11% higher. A burst of data out of China showed growth in its factory and retail sectors continued to falter in August with output and sales growth hitting one-year lows as fresh coronavirus outbreaks and supply disruptions threatened its economic recovery. Retail sales grew at the slowest pace since August 2020 and missed analysts' expectations, while industrial output also rose at a weaker pace from July, underscoring recent signs of slackening momentum in China and adding to expectations that Beijing will need to offer more support measures in coming months. "This is not a dip, it is a falling trend that will last at least until the end of this year," said Iris Pang, chief China economist at ING. Pang said she anticipated a 0.5 percentage point cut in Chinese banks' reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in October, and said more fiscal support was needed for small- and medium-sized companies. Shares in property developer Evergrande, which is scrambling to raise funds to pay its many lenders and suppliers, fell for the third consecutive day on Wednesday, losing as much as 5.1% to their lowest since January 2014. Rating agency Fitch said that numerous sectors could be exposed to heightened credit risk if China's No.2 property developer were to default, although the overall impact on the banking sector would be manageable. Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index shed 1.4%, as casino stocks plunged after Macau began a public consultation which investors fear will lead to tighter regulations in the world's largest gambling hub. An index tracking gaming stocks fell 20%, while Wynn Macau (OTC:WYNMF) fell as much as 34% to a record low. Markets also remained focused on the Federal Reserve's timeline for tapering its massive emergency stimulus. “There is uncertainty in markets at the moment as investors wait to see what the Federal Reserve will do about tapering their asset purchases, which depends on the state of the labour market and the inflation situation,” said Sean Debow Asia CEO of Eurizon Asset Management. Debow said greater clarity would emerge on both in the coming weeks, though for now markets were quick to react to any data points on employment and inflation. Overnight the U.S. Labor Department reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in August posted its smallest gain in six months, suggesting inflation has probably peaked, aligning with Fed Chair Jerome Powell's long-held belief that high inflation is transitory. Lower inflation suggests the Fed will be under less pressure to begin trimming its vast asset purchases, and, as a result, the yield on the benchmark 10-year note US10YT=RR fell as low as 1.263%, its lowest since Aug. 24. Yields recovered slightly and were little changed in Asia on Wednesday at 1.284%, while the dollar was steady also having slipped against a basket of its peers on the inflation figures. Other currencies were also largely steady in Asian hours, with sterling particularly quiet ahead of British CPI figures. A strong reading could potentially add pressure on the Bank of England to raise rates. Oil prices gained on a larger than expected drawdown in crude oil stocks in the United States, with U.S. crude gaining 0.68% to $70.94 a barrel and Brent crude rising 0.61% to $74.05 per barrel. [O/R] Spot gold was little changed, trading at $1802.0374 per ounce off having fallen from a one week peak of $1,808.50 on which it hit on prospects for lower interest rates. [GOL/]
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“We expect Beijing to up their bond issuance and fiscal spending alongside the PBoC increasing liquidity via targeted RRR cuts and various lending facilities in an attempt to offset these slowdown pressures over the coming months,” Charlie wrote, but noted that according to colleague Ting Lu, it won’t be enough. Nomura sees growth in China “drop[ping] significantly, driven by the latest wave of COVID-19, slowing exports, property tightening and the campaign to reduce carbon emissions.” Investors, the bank said, “should be prepared for what could be a much worse-than-expected growth slowdown, more loan and bond defaults and potential stock market turmoil.” As a reminder, more than three-quarters of those surveyed for the August vintage of BofA’s Global Fund Manager survey expect China to ease over the next several months (figure below).
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No one seemed particularly excited about China’s RRR cut. Fatalistic takes and sarcastic quips about the futility of the move aside, I’d still contend that you don’t need the tacit derision to spin a dour narrative on this one. The dovish pivot is an indication that the Party is concerned about growth. That has implications for the global economy. But who knows, maybe all of those implications aren’t bad. “China’s troubles could be a sign that demand is pivoting from goods to services,” Bloomberg’s Eddie van der Walt mused. “That may take some pressure off inflation, freeing central banks to keep rates lower for longer.” ----- Heisenberg
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This is how Wei Yao, China economist for SocGen, summarized it: The past history of RRR cuts (of any kind) suggests that this tool is never used when the economy is doing well. So now that the trigger has been pulled, two things are clear. - First, the economy is not doing well, and this will likely be confirmed by next week’s 2Q GDP data…. Second, China’s easing cycle has started... We now expect another RRR cut of 50bp in 4Q. Based on our current economic projection and bearing in mind the PBoC’s dislike of excessive easing, we do not think the economy would warrant an interest rate cut this year yet. Next year looks more likely. However, even without a policy rate cut, the PBoC will probably drive down interbank rates with more generous liquidity injections from here. from John Authers BBG
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While it’s always “prudent” (to use the PBoC’s favorite word) to parse the TSF data before chancing an assessment, the combination of accelerating credit growth and the RRR cut pretty clearly suggests that all pretensions to keeping credit provision “basically stable” notwithstanding, Beijing is moving preemptively to support an economy that’s seen flagging. Remember, China’s credit impulse turned negative in May on some lookbacks. M2 growth was 8.6% in June, far brisker than the 8.2% economists expected and above the top-end of the range.
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China pulled the trigger on an RRR cut Friday, just two days after the State Council tipped a dovish pivot. The PBoC slashed the reserve requirement by 50bps (figure below), a move Beijing said will free up 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity. It’s effective from July 15.
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Some rumbling PBoC may reverse tightening and cut RRR
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danke @PeterBecker für deinen Hinweis zu RRR und ARR. Habe dazu auch einen Artikel gelesen, der das ganze fachlich gut erklärt https://www.heise.de/tp/features/Wie-wirksam-sind-die-Covid-19-Impfstoffe-6055635.html?seite=all
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läuft aufs gleiche raus , es geht nur um die RRR nicht die ARR . Die relative risk reduction liegt bei biontech bei 90% + aber die absolute risk reduction nur bei 1% , es ist so oder so bullshit
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@DarkPoolAlgo #Dark Pool Charts
/*============================================= = Monday June 07, 2021 = =============================================*/ Monday, June 7, 2021 Futures Up/Down % Last Dow 30.00 0.09% 34,772 S&P 500 -4.25 0.10% 4,224 Nasdaq -45.50 0.33% 13,721 U.S. futures are mixed to start the trading week as the Dow rises, S&P little changed and Nasdaq futures slide about 45 points as shares of U.S. tech giants decline after the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies agreed this weekend to back a minimum global tax rate of at least 15% (watch shares of $AAPL, $AMZN, $FB, $GOOGL). Apple (AAPL) will kick off its annual Worldwide Developer Conference at 1 p.m. ET. In healthcare, all eyes on Biogen ($BIIB) as the company rises ahead of FDA decision on Alzheimer’s drug aducanumab as the FDA is set to decide on whether to approve company’s controversial Alzheimer’s disease drug. This weekend, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said President Joe Biden should push forward with his $4 trillion spending plans even if they cause an inflation spike into next year. She also told Bloomberg in an interview that slightly higher interest rates would be a plus. Other than that, a quiet day for economic data. Stocks climbed on Friday as the key May jobs report showed solid gains, boosting confidence in the economic comeback, while for the week, the S&P rose 0.62%, the Dow added 0.66%, the Nasdaq gained 0.48%. Bitcoin and most other top cryptocurrencies fell on Sunday on concerns that there may be a further crackdown on the industry in China and as a report from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. served as a reminder that institutional adoption may be a long process. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 77 points to settle at 29,020, the Shanghai Index rose 7 points to 3,599, and the Hang Seng Index slipped -130 points to 28,787. In Europe, the German DAX is up about 35 points to 15,725, while the FTSE 100 is up around 20 points to 7,090. Market Closing Prices Yesterday The S&P 500 Index jumped 37.04 points, or 0.88%, to 4,229.89 The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 179.39 points, or 0.52%, to 34,756.39 The Nasdaq Composite surged 199.99 points, or 1.47%, to 13,814.49 The Russell 2000 Index advanced 7.16 points, or 0.31% to 2,286.41 Events Calendar for Today 3:00 PM EST Consumer Credit for April Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: $GII Earnings After the Close: $BBCP, $COUP, $HQY, $MRVL, $MTN, $NAPA, $REVG, $SFIX Other Key Events: American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), 6/4-6/8 Deutsche Bank Global Consumer Conference (virtual), 6/7-6/10 Goldman Sachs Travel & Leisure Conference 2021 (virtual), 6/7-6/8 Oppenheimer Virtual Software & Semiconductor Bus Tour, 6/7-6/11 Macro Up/Down Last Nymex -0.39 69.23 Brent -0.43 71.46 Gold -5.90 1,885.70 EUR/USD -0.0015 1.2152 JPY/USD -0.04 109.48 10-Year Note +0.019 1.579% World News The G7 reached a landmark deal on Saturday to squeeze more money out of multinational companies such as Amazon and Google and reduce their incentive to shift profits to low-tax offshore havens. Hundreds of billions of dollars could flow into the coffers of governments left cash-strapped by the COVID-19 pandemic after the Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies agreed to back a minimum global corporate tax rate of at least 15%. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said President Joe Biden should push forward with his $4 trillion spending plans even if they trigger inflation that persists into next year and higher interest rates. “If we ended up with a slightly higher interest rate environment it would actually be a plus for society’s point of view and the Fed’s point of view,” Yellen said Sunday in an interview with Bloomberg News Sector News Breakdown Consumer Las Vegas is making a comeback according to Barron’s saying bookings at casino resorts have gone up, but convention and expo business still faces uncertainty after the pandemic. Among REITs, MGM Growth Properties ($MGP) and VICI Properties ($VICI) offer yields above 4%. Two major Las Vegas Strip players are MGM Resorts International ($MGM) and Caesars Entertainment ($CZR). Regional casinos Boyd Gaming ($BYD) and Red Rock Resorts ($RRR), which cater more to the local market, have gained more than MGM and Caesars since the end of last January. Avis Budget Group Inc ($CAR) board approved a $325 mln increase to company’s share repurchase authorization Lordstown Motors ($RIDE) said it received a notice of delinquency for late filing from the Nasdaq Stock Market because it has yet to file its 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31 Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc agreed to sell its Chinese baby-formula business to Primavera Capital Group for $2.2 billion as the company seeks to exit from the struggling sector. Reckitt will retain an 8% stake in the unit and sees net cash proceeds of about $1.3 billion Tesla ($TSLA) CEO Elon Musk told Twitter followers that the Plaid+ trim is “canceled” as the imminent, lower-priced ‘regular’ Plaid model is “just so good.” It’s the quickest production car ever, he claimed Energy, Industrials and Materials Peabody Energy ($BTU) files to say has entered into at market issuance sales agreement to offer and sell up to 12.5 mln shares of common stock Diana Shipping Inc. ($DSX) files for mixed shelf of up to $750 mln TimkenSteel ($TMST) announced it will increase base pricing on all special bar quality products by $50 per ton Trucker rating changes at Goldman Sachs as they upgraded CH Robinson ($CHRW) to Buy from Sell with a $108 price target saying asset-based truckload sector fundamentals are very robust right now with supply tight, demand strong and prices elevated, while the firm downgraded ArcBest (ARCB) to Neutral and Werner ($WERN) to Sell Financials Barron’s said Allegiance Bancshares ($ABTX), PNC Financial Services Group ($PNC), Pinnacle Financial Partners ($PNFP), SVB Financial Group ($SIVB) are banks that operate in regions where growth is booming, and they can benefit from loan growth sooner Realty Income Corp ($O) files mixed securities shelf Essex Property ($ESS) raises low end of core FFO guidance for Q2 and FY21 as now sees Q2 core FFO of $2.92-3.00 (prior: $2.84-3.00) vs. a consensus of $2.98; sees FY21 core FFO of $12.02-12.46 (prior: $11.46-$12.46) vs. $12.23 consensus. Visa ($V) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler and up tgt to $260 from $234 Healthcare Biogen ($BIIB) rises ahead of FDA decision on Alzheimer’s drug aducanumab as the FDA is set to decide on whether to approve company’s controversial Alzheimer’s disease drug. If approved, Biogen’s aducanumab would be the first treatment in more than a decade to treat the disease (other companies with Alzheimer treatments include $AVXL, $PRTA, $SAVA) ChromaDex Corp. ($CDXC) announced the launch of its flagship consumer product Tru Niagen(R) in Walmart, available in 3,800 stores across the United States. Walmart is the first major U.S. retailer to bring this well-studied healthy aging nutrient to stores Fate Therapeutics ($FATE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at H.C. Wainwright Liminal BioSciences ($LMNL) shares jumped post-market Friday after the U.S. FDA approved Ryplazim for the treatment of patients with plasminogen deficiency type 1 (hypoplasminogenia) Iovance Biotherapeutics ($IOVA) announced updated clinical data for lifileucel from Cohort 2 in the C-144-01 clinical study in patients with advanced melanoma. The data were presented in an oral presentation at the ASCO 2021 Annual Meeting Novartis ($NVS) announced Phase 2 primary endpoint data showing investigational iptacopan – a first-in-class, oral, targeted factor B inhibitor – reduced protein in the urine, an increasingly recognized surrogate marker correlating with progression to kidney failure, and showed promise in stabilizing kidney function in patients with IgA nephropathy, or IgAN Technology, Media & Telecom Apple ($AAPL) will debut major software updates for the iPhone and iPad at its developers’ conference this week Software maker PTC ($PTC) is up 60% over the past two years, but it has more upside as it seeks to dominate the Internet of Things, Barron’s says. Autodesk ($ADSK) confirmed that it has submitted a non-binding proposal to acquire all the outstanding shares of common stock of Altium ($ALMFF) for A$38.50 Flextronics ($FLEX) forecasted that the chip shortage disrupting the car industry and the supply of consumer technology products will last until at least mid-2022 – Financial Times reported
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Ich hab gestern mit einer kleinen Position meinen ersten Short in BTC gewagt. RRR = 1:3, wie von Robert gelernt :-)
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Elsewhere today, we see more stimulus coming. China says it will make targeted RRR cuts and additional cuts to some other banks. Merkel and Lagarde seem to be coming to agreement, but the proof of the strudel is in the ECB meeting tomorrow. Stock markets continue to display a huge amount of volatility. Bond markets are wise old heads still showing extreme fear, but stocks are like excitable children.
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anyone can teach me how to calculate RRR based on my position size?
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how do I calculate RRR to my position size
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Red Rock Resorts owns a majority indirect equity interest in and manages Station Casinos LLC ('Station Casinos'). Station Casinos is the leading provider of gaming and entertainment to the residents of Las Vegas, Nevada. Station Casinos' properties, which are located throughout the Las Vegasvalley, are regional entertainment destinations and include various amenities, including numerous restaurants, entertainment venues, movie theaters, bowling and convention/banquet space, as well as traditional casino gaming offerings such as video poker, slot machines, table games, bingo and race and sports wagering. Station Casinos owns and operates Red Rock Casino Resort Spa, Green Valley Ranch Resort Spa Casino, Palms Casino Resort, Palace Station Hotel & Casino, Boulder Station Hotel & Casino, Sunset Station Hotel & Casino, Santa Fe Station Hotel & Casino, Texas Station Gambling Hall & Hotel, Fiesta Rancho Casino Hotel, Fiesta Henderson Casino Hotel, Wildfire Rancho, Wildfire Boulder, Wild Wild West Gambling Hall & Hotel, Wildfire Sunset, Wildfire Valley View, Wildfire Anthem and Wildfire Lake Mead. Station Casinos also owns a 50% interest in Barley's Casino & Brewing Company, Wildfire Casino & Lanes and The Greens. In addition, Station Casinos is the manager of Graton Resort & Casino in northern California.