$TSE

Monday, November 8, 2021 Futures Up/Down % Last Dow 72.00 0.20% 36,287 S&P 500 4.25 0.09% 4,694 Nasdaq 9.00 0.06% 16,360 U.S. futures are looking to open at new record highs (again) after Washington passed a smaller form of its highway, broadband and other infrastructure improvement spending deal this weekend, as the $1 trillion infrastructure bill passed through Congress on Friday. A very important week of economic data coming up with monthly CPI, PPI inflation data mid-week. Crypto assets rising to records ahead of the inflation reports as Bitcoin up 8% nearing $66K, Ethereum record highs up over 6% above $4,700, Litecoin tops $200, up over 5.75% as crypto assets surging again. Tech futures underperform following weakness in Tesla (TSLA) after its CEO Elon Musk on Saturday asked his 62.5 million followers on Twitter in a poll if he should sell 10% of his Tesla stock. The world’s richest person had previously said he could face a “massive” tax bill this year as he has to exercise a large number of stock options coming due next year. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -100 points to 29,507, the Shanghai Index rose 0.2% to just under 3,500, and the Hang Seng Index declined 100 points to 24,763. In Europe, the German DAX is down about -0.1% at 16,035, while the FTSE 100 is flat holding just above 7,300. Last week the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow notched their fifth straight weekly advances (longest streak for the S&P since Aug 2020); for the week, the S&P 500 rose 2%, the Dow added 1.42%, the Nasdaq gained 3.05% and the Russell 200o over 6%. The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) notched its 10th winning session in a row on Friday while the S&P 500 scored another record high on Friday and booked a week of solid gains following a strong U.S. jobs report and positive data for Pfizer’s experimental pill against COVID-19, which helped boost travel and other economic reopen sectors. The news kept the run going for equities after investors earlier in the week digested the Federal Reserve’s decision to start reducing its monthly bond purchases put in place to support the economy. Market Closing Prices Yesterday The S&P 500 Index gained 17.47 points, or 0.37%, to 4,697.53 The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 203.72 points, or 0.56%, to 36,327.95 The Nasdaq Composite climbed 31.28 points, or 0.20%, to 15,971.59 The Russell 2000 Index advanced 34.65 points, or 1.44% to 2,437.08 Events Calendar for Today No major U.S. economic data Earnings Calendar: Earnings Before the Open: ATRO, AXSM, BKI, COTY, DS, EDIT, EHTH, GATO, GTES, HLIO, KOS, LINC, NERV, NSSC, RDNT, RDUS, RETA, THS, TTD, USFD, VAC, VUZI, WOW, ZIXI Earnings After the Close: ACAD, AEIS, AEL, AMBC, AMC, AMPH, AMRS, APEI, APPF, APTS, ASUR, ATER, AVEO, BAND, BRP, CARA, CBT, CHRS, CLRS, CLOV, CSSE, CSTL, CXW, DDD, DOOR, ENV, FIVN, FLDM, FRPT, FSK, FTK, GOSS, HIL, IEA, IFF, IIN, INST, IPAR, JKHY, KERN, LMND, LOTZ, MRC, MRTX, MWA, NCMI, NEWR, NNI, NVRO, NVTA, OCIUL, OUST, PRA, PRI, PRIM, PYPL, RBLX, REAL, SANM, SCOR, SDC, SNCR, SPCE, SWSP, SWAV, SWX, TCMD, TREX, TRIP, TWO, XNCR, ZIOP, ZNGA Other Key Events: Credit Suisse 30th Annual Healthcare Conference, 11/8-11/11 (virtual) JPMorgan Global Consumer, Retail & Luxury Conference, 11/8-11/21 (virtual) EEI Financial Conference, 11/7-11/9 (virtual) REITWorld 2021 Annual Conference, 11/9-11/12 (virtual) Macro Up/Down Last Nymex 1.22 82.49 Brent 1.09 83.83 Gold -0.50 1,818.50 EUR/USD -0.0002 1.1564 JPY/USD 0.05 113.46 10-Year Note +0.032 1.485% World News China’s export growth moderated slightly to 27.1% yoy in October, above the 22.8% consensus expectation, implying a sequential gain of 2.6% in October (a modest slowdown from +3.0% in September) despite electricity constraints in October. At the same time, imports rose 20.6% yoy in October, missing expectations of a 26.2% surge, but fell 3.2% sequentially in October (vs. -0.7% in September). As a result of the far bigger growth in exports over imports, the monthly trade surplus rose further to a record high of $84.5bn in October, supporting the appreciation of the Chinese yuan in October, even as China’s economy has slowed down sharply in recent months. China’s trade surplus with the United States was $40.75 billion in October based on customs data showed on Sunday, down from $42 billion in September. For the first ten months of the year, the surplus was $320.67 billion – Reuters Highway, broadband and other infrastructure improvement spending deal this weekend, as the $1 trillion infrastructure bill passed through Congress on Friday and among parts of the deal, allows for $7.5 billion spending for building out a network of electric vehicle chargers and another $7.5 billion for low or zero-emission buses and ferries. Sector News Breakdown Consumer Tesla Inc ($TSLA) CEO Elon Musk on Saturday asked his 62.5 million followers on Twitter in a poll if he should sell 10% of his Tesla stock. The world’s richest person had previously said he could face a “massive” tax bill this year as he has to exercise a large number of stock options coming due next year. “Note, I do not take a cash salary or bonus from anywhere. I only have stock, thus the only way for me to pay taxes personally is to sell stock,” Musk said on Twitter on Saturday. Rivian Automotive ($RIVN) raises IPO price range to $72.00-$74.00 from $57.00-$62.00. Separately, Barron’s noted Rivian Automotive (RIVN) is set to go public this coming week at a market value that could exceed that of Honda Motor (HMC) despite having sold just a handful of vehicles, with a market cap around $64 billion Haverty’s (HVT) announces special cash dividend, quarterly cash dividend, and additional authorization under stock repurchase program Peloton ($PTON) has halted hiring across all departments effective immediately, CNBC reported late Friday, a day after it slashed its full-year outlook amid slowing momentum for its fitness products Coty ($COTY) agrees to sell additional partial stake in Wella to KKR in exchange for about 56% of Preferred Coty shares owned by KKR Marriott Vacations ($VAC) Q3 adjusted EPS $1.60 vs. est. $1.42; Q3 revs $1.05B vs est. $1.07B; said occupancies at our resorts this quarter were very strong despite the Delta variant and contract sales were within 3% of 2019 levels, driving 25% sequential growth in Adjusted EBITDA Energy China’s crude oil imports plunged in October to the lowest since September 2018, as large state-owned refiners withheld purchases because of rising prices while independent refiners were restrained by limited quotas to import. The world’s biggest crude oil importer brought in 37.8 million tonnes last month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Sunday, equivalent to 8.9 million barrels per day (bpd). – Reuters FirstEnergy ($FE) agrees to sell a 19.9% stake in its three regulated transmission businesses to Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) for $2.4B Financials Berkshire Hathaway Inc ($BRK/A) said that global supply chain disruptions kept a lid on its ability to generate profit; Q3 operating profit rose 18% but missed analyst forecasts amid goods shortages that crimped consumer spending; net income, meanwhile, fell 66%, reflecting lower gains from stock holdings such as Apple Inc and Bank of America Corp. Alleghany ($Y) mentioned positively in Barron’s saying shares should not be overlooked noting under CEO Weston Hicks, Alleghany has used a similar strategy to create an attractive, smaller-scale version of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) R. Berkley ($WRB) announced that its Board of Directors has declared a special cash dividend on its common stock of $1.00 per share to be paid on December 22 to stockholders of record at the close of business on December 7 Healthcare Cannabis stocks rose late Friday after Marijuana Moment reported a fresh Republican-led attempt to legalize marijuana. The States Reform Act led by Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC) is still in the preliminary stage, and a final version is expected to be filed later this month. As U.S. health authorities expand use of the leading Covid-19 vaccines, researchers investigating heart-related risks linked to the shots are exploring several emerging theories, including one centered on the spike protein made in response to vaccination. Researchers aren’t certain why the messenger RNA vaccines, one from Pfizer Inc. ($PFE) and partner BioNTech SE ($BNTX) and the other from Moderna Inc., are likely causing the inflammatory heart conditions myocarditis and pericarditis in a small number of cases. – WSJ https://on.wsj.com/3mQqCVY Alcon ($ALC) has acquired Ivantis, developer and manufacturer of the novel Hydrus Microstent, a minimally-invasive glaucoma surgery (MIGS) device designed to lower intraocular pressure for open-angle glaucoma patients in connection with cataract surgery for $475M in upfront consideration Genetron Holdings ($GTH) has formed a strategic partnership with oncology laboratory solution provider NeoGenomics (NEO) to drive global oncology drug research and development. Industrials & Materials Boeing ($BA) directors agreed to a $237.5 million settlement of claims that they turned a blind eye to safety issues related to 737 Max jetliners whose crashes have cost the company more than $20 billion, according to court documents Blade Air Mobility ($BLDE) is bringing ride-sharing to helicopters-just don’t call it the Uber ($UBER) of the sky. The stock can take off without that comparison, Barron’s reported. Blade Air Mobility is a less risky way to invest in the eVTOL future, though certainly not risk-free BHP is close to a deal to sell its controlling interest in two Australian coal mines to Stanmore Resources Ltd. ($STMRF) for ~$1.25B, the Wall Street Journal reports. Technology, Media & Telecom New Oriental Education & Technology ($EDU), Gaotu Techedu ($GOTU), and Tal Education ($TAL) shares all rising over 20% after the WSJ reported that China plans to issue more than a dozen licenses that would allow companies to offer after-school tutoring. The report said Gaotu Techedu (GOTU) and Yuanfudao, a unit of Tencent ($TCEHY), have held talks about resuming tutoring to students in the ninth grade and below https://on.mktw.net/3EVcxg5 Trinseo ($TSE) has begun work to explore the divestiture of its Styrenics businesses and plans to launch a formal sales process in Q1 of 2022. The scope of this potential divestiture is expected to include the Feedstocks and Polystyrene reporting segments as well as the company’s 50% ownership of Americas Styrenics AU Optronics ($AUOTY) reports October revenue of NT$30.38B (+18.1% Y/Y, -9.9% M/M); the total panel area shipment reached around 2.08 million square meters in October 2021, down by 4.3% month-over-month. ChipMOS ($IMOS) reports October revenue of $82.3M (-2.3% M/M; +10.7% Y/Y).

Tse sums up: “When risk sells off, as it did in March of 2020, nothing makes money but AAA sovereign assets, but there are not many AAA assets out there.” As a result, he expects “perpetual” high demand for Treasuries. Like Rissmiller, he thinks what may ultimately weaken the dollar is a resurgence of global growth, but he thinks the model here is not 2017 but the early-to-mid-2000s. Back then global economic activity rose and, just like today, a long bull market in equities driven by US tech companies was receding into the rear-view mirror. Again, were looking at that low, middle bit of the dollar smile. If the dollar is going to weaken, how should investors position themselves? The traditional answer is that stocks that report in US dollars, but generate a big chunk of their revenues abroad, should see their profits rise as the dollar falls. Tech companies are the classic choice. Commodities companies’ products are priced in dollars, so they too will see higher revenues if the dollar weakens.

Rissmiller also points out that if the dollar is going to fall, it has to fall against something. But what? While the US is one of the world leaders in vaccinations and growth, he says, capital seems likely to keep flowing towards dollar assets. But this could change, he says, as the rest of the world catches up, and we might end up with 2017-style synchronised global growth, sending capital out towards to the rest of the world for better returns. Currency traders often talk about the “dollar smile.” This refers to the fact that the dollar rises at the two ends of the US growth spectrum. If the US is outgrowing the rest of the world, then the dollar rises as capital flows to America. If US growth is particularly sluggish, as it was in March of 2020, then that probably means the whole world is in poor shape, meaning that US assets become an attractive safe haven, driving the dollar up again. It is in the middle of the growth spectrum, where the US is fine, but not world-beating, that the dollar tends to weaken. Rissmiller is arguing, in essence, that we could be heading back to the middle of the smile. Calvin Tse, a Citigroup FX analyst, is a long-term dollar bear, too, but not because of the twin deficits. He thinks the appeal of US Treasuries will endure. “What’s happened over the past decade, ever since the financial crisis, is a rip in equity prices, resulting in a big build-up in global wealth. Investors are very long risk, and they need safe assets in their portfolios to offset that.” In this excellent chart he shows how global savings and risk assets have shot up, but safe assets have not kept pace

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oh man I am the stonks master. got in VFF.TO on tse and sold at 18.50. > @In2Learn said: only thing I sold was $VFF...now it can go even higher lol

yea BAINF or 4477.T if you have access to TSE

prob better off buying 4477.T if you have excess to tse

$TSE cruising preannounced

this $TSE Looks like wants to break out